此外，阿里云已正式回应市场传闻称：阿里云确实一云多芯支持国产供应链，但传言阿里采购寒武纪15 万片GPU的消息不实。据悉，阿里单季AI+云Capex达386亿元，三年规划3800亿元建设AI基础设施，带 动算力需求扩张。中银国际指出，中美科技摩擦、英伟达供应链存在风险的情况下，阿里等国产云厂商 的旺盛需求可能将转向国产算力，这对于国产算力景气度是重要催化，IDC、算力租赁等产业链环节也 有望受益。 消息面上，华虹公司发布公告称，拟以发行股份及支付现金方式购买华力微97.5%股权并募集配套资金 中芯国际则表示，筹划发行A股购买中芯北方49%的少数股权。中银国际指出，对半导体晶圆厂而言， 收购子公司剩余股权或相关资产，有利于提高运营和决策管理效率，提升公司整体资产质量，相关公司 及产业链有望持续受益，关注国产芯片产业链。 智通财经APP获悉，芯片股全线高开，截至发稿，中芯国际(00981)涨6.67%，报64.75港元；华虹半导体 (01347)涨5.02%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's latest financial report indicates significant growth in capital expenditure and cloud business for Q2 2025, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's capital expenditure and cloud business have shown high growth, reflecting strong investment in AI infrastructure despite geopolitical disruptions affecting overseas computing chip supply [1] - AI-related product revenue has consistently achieved triple-digit growth over the past eight quarters, highlighting the company's successful integration of AI into its offerings [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the progress in domestic AI chip autonomy is steadily advancing, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in AI technology [1] - Domestic cloud service providers are expected to experience a resurgence in capital expenditure driven by AI demand, signaling a return to high growth rates in the sector [1] - Recommendations are made for companies benefiting from the domestic computing wave, particularly in areas such as AIDC, server and network equipment, and upstream switching chip manufacturers [1]

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 策略周报 掘金科技，国产算力新一轮上行机遇 牛市中继，布局科技核心资产，国产算力有望再度上行。 相关研究报告 《策略点评报告》20250822 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 牛市中继，关 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the three major domestic chip design companies are experiencing significant milestones in their respective journeys [3] Group 1: Cambrian's Performance - Cambrian achieved a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking a turnaround to profitability [4] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.311 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a substantial increase from -1.399 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [4] - Cambrian's products have been widely recognized and deployed in key industries such as telecommunications, finance, and the internet, indicating successful commercialization [5] Group 2: Haiguang's Strategy - Haiguang Information reported a revenue of 5.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 45.21%, and a net profit of 1.201 billion yuan, up 40.78% [6] - The ongoing merger with Zhongke Shuguang aims to create a comprehensive domestic computing powerhouse, covering chip design to cloud computing services [7] - This merger is expected to significantly impact China's computing industry and enhance Haiguang's ecosystem [7] Group 3: Longxin's Challenges - Longxin Zhongke achieved a revenue of 244 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, but continued to face losses with a net profit of -295 million yuan, a decline of 23.66% [9] - The company is entering a new growth cycle, with significant progress in the development of new CPU products, although it faces intense competition from both domestic and international manufacturers [9] - Longxin's focus is shifting from product development to market sales, highlighting the need to improve product performance and expand its ecosystem for future profitability [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [41] Core Insights - The report highlights the impressive performance of Cambrian's mid-year report, showing a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan in H1 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from previous losses [3][8] - The report emphasizes the strong demand for AI computing power, driven by the growth of artificial intelligence applications, which is expected to boost the capacity needs of wafer foundries [3][12] - The State Council's recent issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan is seen as a new opportunity for the domestic computing power industry, with projections indicating the AI chip market in China will grow from approximately 18.4 billion yuan in 2020 to 153 billion yuan by 2025, representing a CAGR of about 52.7% [12][13] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Cambrian's mid-year report indicates a strong recovery with a gross margin of 55.93% and a net margin of 36.04% in H1 2025, showcasing improved profitability [3][8] - The capacity utilization rates of leading domestic wafer foundries, SMIC and Hua Hong, reached 92.5% and 108.3% respectively in Q2 2025, reflecting robust demand and tight supply in the AI industry [3][12] - The report notes that the domestic AI chip market is expected to benefit from challenges faced by foreign competitors, particularly Nvidia, due to security concerns regarding their products in the Chinese market [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in domestic AI chip design companies, which are expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI computing power [5][36] - Specific companies recommended include Haiguang Information, Tongfu Microelectronics, and a focus on Cambrian, SMIC, Hua Hong, and Changdian Technology [5][36] - The report also highlights the potential for various hardware terminals to undergo intelligent upgrades as AI infrastructure matures, recommending companies like Hengxuan Technology and suggesting attention to others like Rockchip and Lexin Technology [5][36]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise on August 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.48%, driven by gains in sectors such as insurance, automotive, and electric power grid, while semiconductor and computer hardware sectors experienced declines [1] - The semiconductor ETF (159995) fell by 3.53%, with notable declines in component stocks such as Northern Huachuang down 6.53%, Shengmei Shanghai down 6.31%, and Cambricon-U down 6.20% [1] - Despite a 9.8% year-on-year decline in total investment in China's semiconductor industry, which is projected to reach 455 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, investment in semiconductor equipment grew by 53.4%, indicating a strategic commitment to supply chain autonomy [1] Group 2 - The DeepSeek-V3.1 version released by DeepSeek features high energy efficiency and a large dynamic range, aimed at the next generation of domestic chip design, highlighting significant achievements in domestic software and hardware collaboration [1] - The domestic internet companies are expected to maintain high demand for computing infrastructure due to increased capital expenditure and disruptions in overseas GPU supply [1] - The semiconductor ETF (159995) tracks the Guozheng Semiconductor Index, which includes 30 leading companies in materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing within the A-share semiconductor industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "king of stocks" transition, with the AI computing sector, particularly companies like Cambricon, becoming the focus of capital inflow, leading to significant stock price increases [2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Dynamics - Cambricon's stock price reached 1587.91 CNY per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's 1446.1 CNY, marking it as the new "king of stocks" in A-shares [2] - Following Cambricon's rise, Kweichow Moutai and Ningde Times initiated a strong rebound, with Kweichow Moutai increasing over 2.3% and Ningde Times over 10% on August 29 [2] - The "Moutai Index" and "Ning Combination" have seen significant pullbacks, with the Moutai Index down 56% from its peak in February 2021 and the Ning Combination down 63.55% from its peak in August 2021 [3][4] Group 2: Index Composition and Characteristics - The "Moutai Index" consists of industry leaders with stable profitability, while the "Ning Combination" focuses on high-growth sectors, including new energy and medical aesthetics [4][5] - As of August 27, 2025, 24 stocks from the Moutai Index have shown an average decline of 12.24% since their peak in February 2021, with 7 stocks reaching new highs [5][6] Group 3: Notable Stocks and Performance - Among the top performers, a traditional industrial company saw a 60.95% increase in stock price, driven by its strong position in the hydraulic components market and expansion into humanoid robot components [7] - In the Ning Combination, only 3 stocks reached new highs, with notable performances from companies like WuXi AppTec, which saw a 103.13% increase in stock price [8][10] Group 4: Institutional Holdings and Financing - Institutional investors continue to favor Kweichow Moutai, with significant financing balances reported for leading stocks in both the Moutai Index and Ning Combination [11][12] - The top three stocks by institutional holding ratios include companies with over 70% institutional ownership, indicating strong investor confidence [14]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23% on the last trading day of August, with a market turnover exceeding 2.83 trillion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive trading day above 2.5 trillion yuan [2] Performance Summary - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 15.32%, and the ChiNext Index by 24.13%. The main market focus was on computing power and chip sectors [2] Company Highlights - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its stock price rise over 14% during the day, closing up 10.37% at 306.18 yuan per share, with a trading volume exceeding 234 billion yuan. The company reported a revenue of 178.886 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, and a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, up 33.33% year-on-year [5][6] Industry Insights - Citic Securities reported that CATL's sodium battery production progress and its 40% market share of Kirin batteries create a technological moat. Future stock performance may depend on the strength of automakers' inventory replenishment in Q4 and overseas order fulfillment [6] - Dongfang Securities noted CATL's leading position in the power and energy storage battery markets, benefiting from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles and global energy transition trends. The company is expected to maintain high gross and net profit margins due to its pricing power [6] - Guoxin Securities highlighted that the lithium battery industry's technological iteration is advancing, with market concentration expected to increase, making the profitability of leading companies with cost and technological advantages promising [6] Chip Sector Performance - The chip sector exhibited mixed performance, with companies like Jieban Technology and Changfei Fiber both hitting the daily limit, while others like Chunzhong Technology and Huasheng Tiancai faced declines. Cambrian Technology's stock fell over 6% despite a significant price increase of 133.86% over the past month [6] - Cambrian Technology announced no new product release plans, stating that recent online information regarding new products was misleading [7] Future Outlook - Shengan Securities projected that the continuous advancement of AI applications and the upgrade of multimodal large models will drive sustained growth in computing power demand. Domestic computing power chips and model adaptation are expected to accelerate, potentially capturing a larger market share and maintaining high growth momentum [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cambricon announced a revenue guidance of 5-7 billion for the year, leading to a nearly 7% intraday pullback, despite Goldman Sachs setting a target price of 1800 with a revenue forecast of over 6 billion for 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The "DeepSeek moment" for domestic computing power is seen as an opportunity for market expansion, driven by three key factors: unwavering national support for technological self-reliance, persistent demand from major companies for supply chain security, and a collective industry effort to accelerate technological iteration [1] - Domestic leading companies are expected to accelerate breakthroughs against overseas blockades, particularly in response to Nvidia's upgraded AI chips, with Cambricon and Huawei's Ascend 920 positioned at the forefront of the domestic AI chip competition [1] Group 2: Cost and Performance Advantages - The cost of completing a full programming task using DeepSeek is approximately one-sixtieth of that of proprietary systems, highlighting its performance-cost advantage, which is expected to benefit downstream enterprises [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities include various ETFs focusing on semiconductor and AI sectors, such as: - Sci-Tech Chip ETF Index 588920, which includes GPU chips (Cambricon + Haiguang), ASIC chips (Chipone), and foundries (SMIC + Hua Hong Semiconductor) [1] - Semiconductor ETF 159813, which also includes GPU chips (Cambricon + Haiguang) and semiconductor equipment (Northern Huachuang) [1] - Big Data ETF 159739, focusing on CPO, data centers, and AI software [1] - Telecom ETF 560690, which includes CPO, data centers, and AI software [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share technology market is experiencing a strong rally, particularly in the semiconductor and chip sectors, with significant gains in stocks like Cambrian Technology, which surged by 15.73% to reach a record price of 1595 yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai and becoming the new stock king of A-shares [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) saw a daily increase of 8.40%, with a net inflow of 39.35 million yuan, bringing its total scale to over 1 billion yuan [1] - The A-share market has shown steady growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points, marking a ten-year high, and trading volume and margin financing balances continuing to rise [4] Group 2: Index Composition - As of August 28, Cambrian Technology accounts for 14.01% of the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980), making it the largest weighted stock in the index [2][3] - The top five weighted stocks in the index collectively account for nearly 59%, while the top ten account for over 78%, indicating a high concentration in the index [2][3] Group 3: Financial Performance - Cambrian Technology reported a revenue of 2.881 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a staggering year-on-year growth of 4348%, with a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan [6] - Another leading company, SMIC, achieved a net profit of 2.301 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.76% [7] Group 4: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant net inflows, with 44 billion yuan over the past five days and 80.425 billion yuan over the past 20 days [5] - The global semiconductor revenue is expected to nearly double from 2024 to 2030, exceeding 1 trillion USD, driven by the infrastructure needs of generative AI [9] - Domestic chip suppliers are anticipated to increase their market share in AI servers, with local suppliers expected to rise from 37% in 2024 to 40% by 2025 [9][10]