欧洲央行调查：2025年通胀预期为2.0%，此前为2.2%；2026年通胀预期为1.8%，此前为2.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, highlighting the pressure exerted by Trump on Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates and the potential counterproductive effects of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Independence vs. Political Pressure - The conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a fundamental clash between institutional independence and populism, questioning whether expert institutions can manage economic policy better than elected officials [2]. - Trump has called for a significant 3% rate cut, which would mark a radical shift and disrupt traditional economic models, although this may be more political rhetoric than a feasible policy [2]. - Current futures markets indicate a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, with a 60% chance of a cut in September [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Real Costs - Market data supports the argument that political pressure on interest rate policy leads to increased inflation volatility, causing investors to demand higher compensation [3]. - Following Trump's call for a 3% rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield premium rose to 0.84%, up from 0.6% after a similar attack in April, indicating a market response to political intervention [3]. Group 3: Misunderstanding of Mortgage Rates - Trump’s assertion that high interest rates are preventing home purchases is misleading, as standard 30-year fixed mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term Treasury yields than to the Fed's overnight rates [5]. - Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the overnight rate has decreased by 1%, while the 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 6.2% to 6.75%, illustrating the complex relationship between these rates [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Policy Considerations - The article notes a divergence between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding the economic impact of tariffs, with the Fed taking a cautious approach due to past inflation misjudgments [6]. - Economic indicators supporting a rate cut include minimal inflation impact from tariffs, slightly above-target inflation, weak private sector hiring, slowing wage growth, and rising default rates on loans [6]. Group 5: Professional Justification for Rate Cuts - Concerns are raised about Trump's pressure tactics, suggesting that while there are valid reasons for the Fed to cut rates faster than expected, these should not be articulated by the President [7]. - The article advises the Trump administration to allow market and professional assessments based on economic data to justify rate cuts, rather than continuing to undermine the Fed's independence [7].

2025.07. 24 本文字数：1454，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 24日，欧洲央行（下称"欧央行"）宣布三大关键利率维持不变——存款利率为2.00%，主要再融资利 率为2.15%，边际贷款利率为2.40%，结束此前连续七次降息的进程。 该决议声明显示，最新经济和通胀数据"大致符合此前评估"，目前国内价格压力持续缓解，工资增速 也出现放缓，表明前期政策调整已部分传导至实体经济。欧央行重申将继续采取"依赖数据、逐次评 估"的方式决定未来利率路径，强调"不会预设特定方向"。 在随后新闻发布会上，欧央行行长拉加德表示，当前利率水平"处于合理区间"，货币政策正在为实现 2%的中期通胀目标发挥支持作用。她同时表示，虽然家庭消费受到就业和实际收入改善的支撑， 但"欧元走强和更高关税可能使企业投资面临更多障碍"。 德意志银行首席欧洲经济学家沃尔（Mark Wall）认为，欧央行此举"释放出更为谨慎的信号"，显示 政策层目前更倾向于等待局势明朗后再行决策。他表示，"只要外部风险仍未解除，欧央行就没有必 要急于推进新一轮宽松。" 荷兰AFS集团研究总监阿恩·佩蒂梅萨斯（Arne Petimezas）亦表 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged, ending a series of seven consecutive rate cuts, with the deposit rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current interest rates are in a reasonable range and that monetary policy is supporting the goal of achieving a 2% medium-term inflation target [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the ECB is likely to reassess the situation in September, with more complete data and tariff developments providing a basis for policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The ECB has warned that external risks remain high, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and exchange rate fluctuations, which could hinder corporate investment [2] - Lagarde noted that stronger euro and higher tariffs are expected to make corporate investment more challenging, reflecting market concerns about the outlook for recent US-EU trade negotiations [2] - The ECB is adopting a cautious approach, preferring to wait for clearer signals before making further policy decisions, as indicated by various analysts [2] Group 3 - The eurozone economy shows resilience driven by domestic demand, supported by a strong labor market, rising real incomes, and robust private sector balance sheets [3] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable at around 2%, with core inflation pressures easing and wage growth slowing, reducing the risk of price increases [3] - Analysts believe that the current interest rate levels provide space for the ECB to remain observant, with expectations that rates will remain stable until autumn unless significant changes in inflation or growth prospects occur [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trading logic involves the spread of anti - involution across all commodities, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations in the macro - economy, and the narrative of commodities exiting the low - price cycle. Whether prices continue to follow the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission in the industry chain and terminal consumption capacity [4][14]. - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to the expectation of anti - involution spreading upstream and the bet on Jiangxi mine shutdowns. Attention should be paid to potential "expectation gaps" [5][36]. - Speculative demand - driven price fluctuations in the commodity market show a "spring effect", including three stages: macro - narrative igniting speculative enthusiasm, supply elasticity lag leading to over - price increase, and expectation falsification with a stampede - style decline [17]. Summary by Directory First Part: Preface Summary Trading Logic - The current trading logic includes the spread of anti - involution, the shift from deflation to inflation expectations, and the end of the low - price cycle for commodities. After price increases, whether to continue the macro - logic or return to industrial reality depends on inflation transmission and terminal consumption [4][14]. Market Outlook - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. If mines are shut down without a license, prices can rise; if the mine risk is removed, the over - supply problem may worsen, and prices may hit new lows [5]. Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, follow the trend in the short term as there are no signs of a trend reversal. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell put options [6]. Second Part: Review of Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate main contract 2509 has risen 27% from the lowest 58400 to the highest 74680. After reaching around 65,000, the upward movement was driven by the strong expectations of the market, with 100,000 more lots added in 7 days from July 14, and a gain of over 15% [11]. Third Part: Speculative Demand Driving Price Fluctuations First Stage: Macro - Narrative Igniting Speculative Enthusiasm - Speculative demand is initiated by macro - factors such as policy changes and geopolitical events. Speculators hoard goods based on the expectation of future supply shortages, leading to a situation where speculative demand far exceeds actual consumption demand. Prices rise sharply, and the spot premium structure expands, driving futures - cash arbitrage. Technical signals show a strong upward trend [18][22]. Second Stage: Supply Elasticity Lag Leading to Over - Price Increase - The price increase is not based on real supply - demand improvement. At high prices, there are structural contradictions, with actual consumption demand being suppressed. New production capacity is gradually released, but speculators still hold positions based on macro - narratives. Any "expectation gap" may lead to a trend reversal [23]. Third Stage: Expectation Falsification with a Stampede - Style Decline - The end of speculative demand is due to factors such as policy falsification or speculative capital profit - taking. When the market sentiment reverses and the supply peak arrives, there will be a stampede - style decline [24]. Lithium Carbonate's Current Stage - Lithium carbonate is in the initial stage of the first and second phases, and it is necessary to observe when the third stage starts. The proportion change of the hoarding group can be used to judge the stage. High - price consumption suppression is affected by multiple factors [25][26]. Fourth Part: Impact of Anti - Involution on Lithium's Upstream and Downstream Anti - Involution Mainly Targets New - Energy Vehicles - Anti - involution in the lithium - battery industry chain mainly targets new - energy vehicles. The policies aim to improve inventory turnover and eliminate false sales, but stimulating consumption may face challenges [27]. No Anti - Involution Policies for the Upstream - There are currently no anti - involution policies for the upstream. The mining license issues in Qinghai and Yichun have led to market expectations of upstream anti - involution, but this may be unfounded. Mining license problems are mainly related to regulatory actions [28][30]. Fifth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Supply Focus and Market Disagreements - The disagreement over lithium carbonate prices above 65,000 mainly concerns whether large mines in Jiangxi can renew their licenses on time. If 8 large mines in Yichun stop production, it is estimated to affect 75,000 tons of LCE production in the second half of the year. The renewal of the Jiaxiaowo mine's license is a key focus, and the shutdown of two Qinghai salt - lakes may affect 20,000 tons of LCE production [32][34]. Uncertainty in the Second - Half Balance Sheet - In July, there was a surplus of 500 tons. From August, there is high uncertainty. If mines stop production, there may be a large supply gap. High prices will stimulate production from domestic and overseas mines, but they cannot fully compensate for the short - term reduction [35]. Trading Logic and Strategy Suggestions - The strong rise of lithium carbonate is due to anti - involution expectations and bets on mine shutdowns. Pay attention to "expectation gaps". If mines shut down, prices may rise; if the risk is removed, prices may hit new lows [36].

欧洲央行拉加德：通胀预期得到牢固锚定。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：通胀预期依然稳固。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 7 月 15 日-7 月 24 日，债市面临调整压力。当前债市对价格敏感，包括股票为代表的资产 价格，以及各类"反内卷"和供给侧改革相关的商品期货现货价格指数。物价改善的方式之一， 是改善当前的融资挤占问题，使得产出缺口回正；物价改善的另一种方式，是为价格的快速上 涨找到需求方，内部加杠杆、外部出口改善。债市对货币流动性及基本面不太敏感，这两点在 未来一段时间可能都不构成债市交易主线。关注通胀变化及主要整改行业的物价传导情况，观 察 10 年期国债收益率在 1.75%-1.8%之间是否出现拐点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 本轮债市的调整空间和可能拐点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近期（7 月 15 日-7 月 23 日，下同）债市面临 ...

Report Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - Gold: After the US and Japan reached an agreement and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal, the gold price rose and then fell. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the downward pressure on the gold price increased. However, the premium of Shanghai gold expanded, and the support for Shanghai gold remained despite the RMB appreciation. The overall situation is neutral, with some bullish and bearish factors coexisting [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price also rose and then fell after the agreements. Although the domestic commodity sentiment cooled, the silver price still had support and remained relatively strong. The overall situation is also neutral, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the US and Europe were close to a 15% tariff deal. The US stock market rose, the US bond yield increased, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated. The COMEX gold futures fell 1.34% to $3397.50 per ounce. The domestic commodity sentiment cooled, and the gold price rose and then fell [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price rose and then fell. The COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $39.52 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -4.4, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures was 28,857 kilograms and remained unchanged, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis was -38, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 10,564 kilograms to 1,188,482 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, but the long positions of the main players decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - There are multiple events to watch, including the preliminary GDP data of South Korea in the second quarter, the preliminary PMI data of Japan, Europe, and the US in July, the visits of European leaders to China, and the discussions of the New Zealand central bank on global tariffs and inflation [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The bullish factors include global turmoil, high - risk aversion, rising stagflation expectations in the US, and tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. The bearish factors include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, improved economic expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [10]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is also neutral. The bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the bearish factors also include the end of the interest - rate cut cycle, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [13][14]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.55% to 222,660, the short positions increased by 10.31% to 68,052, and the net position increased by 3.59% to 154,608 [31]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 2.17% to 456,195, the short positions decreased by 0.57% to 370,832, and the net position decreased by 8.55% to 85,363 [32]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position increased slightly, and the silver ETF position increased significantly and was higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased and remained at a high level, while the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease but were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [39][42].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain its assessment of the economy as growing at a "solid pace," with a robust labor market and slightly elevated inflation [2][3]. Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve is expected to emphasize the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation [2]. - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to grow steadily, with a low unemployment rate and a slight increase in inflation [2]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 2.2% annualized growth rate for Q2 GDP, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts 2.4% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates 1.7% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains in good condition, with employment growth slowing but the unemployment rate unchanged compared to 12 months ago [2][11]. - Employment growth is expected to slow from an average of 130,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2025 to about 50,000 jobs per month in 2026 [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Inflation is described as "slightly high," with June's CPI report reflecting new price pressures from tariffs [2][5]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that tariffs will lead to a rise in overall and core PCE price indices, reaching 3.0% and 3.2% respectively by 2025 [5]. - Core PCE inflation is expected to peak at an annualized rate of 4.1% by the end of Q3 2025 before declining [5]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, with potential rate cuts of 25 basis points at subsequent meetings [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to delay rate cuts but suggests that the magnitude of cuts may exceed market expectations [11]. Trade and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies continues to pose risks to the Fed's dual mandate [4]. - Fed Chair Powell is expected to acknowledge the pressures from tariffs and emphasize the ongoing uncertainty in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies [4].