1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：760-800元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8100-8400元/千克。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 振黄金的抗通胀属性。黄金的结构性利多因素仍未松动，美国债务扩张导致美元信用边际转弱，以及全球 去美元化趋势下央行购金需求稳固，为金价提供中长线支撑。白银方面，受中美贸易格局缓和预期提振， 免责声明 全球经济下行预期转弱，白银的工业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望回落。操作上建议， 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main factors driving domestic inflation in the UK are domestic rather than tariff-related [1] Group 1: Inflation Factors - The UK central bank's policy is influenced by the decline in inflation [1] - Wage levels are significantly above target levels [1] - Inflation expectations are not the primary drivers of policy [1] - Recent data since the last meeting indicates a decrease in inflation [1]

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

研究报告 铝周报 氧化铝产能出现下降，铝价或震荡偏强运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2506 价格以震荡偏弱行情为主。 价格范围在 19310 元/吨附近至最高 20050 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 美联储承认经济前景不确定性进一步上升，且"失业率和通 胀上升的风险已增加"。美联储调查数据显示，4 月，美国一年 期通胀预期持稳于 3.6%，而三年期通胀预期从 3%上升至 4.2%， 创下自 2022 年 7 月以来的最高水平。美国通胀预期上升，就业市 场压力加大。氧化铝总产能继续增长，在产产能出现下降。电解 铝产能继续攀升，开工率维持高位。沪铝库存延续下降趋势，库 存水平处于近年来低位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小 幅下降。 【后市展望】 铝价或以震荡偏强趋势为主。 【风险提示】 美联储政 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 2025年5月9日 格林威治标准时间下午04:30 理念金属与岩石 | 欧洲 黄金：风险偏好与风险规避 黄金在经历快速上涨后，已在每盎司3200至3500美元区间 保持稳定。ETF是推动价格上涨的主要因素，但随着标准 普尔指数反弹，ETF出现资金流出，显示其他资产类 别的竞争目前是主要驱动力。 寻找区间：继4月底盘中触及3500美元/盎司（约9个交易日内上涨500美元/盎 司）后，黄金价格已稳定在一个区间内，我们预计该区间将暂时维持。 实物需求强劲，但趋势分化：世界黄金协会数据显示，第一季度实物黄金需 求同比增长1%，为2016年以来最强的第一季度表现。这一增长完全由投资需求 驱动（ETF持仓增加227吨，金条和金币需求增加8吨）。 相比之下，央行需求同 比下降21%，减少66吨，尽管基数较高，但第一季度仍保持强劲，达到244吨，波 兰、阿塞拜疆和中国为最大买家（图表12）。 珠宝需求同样疲软，同比下降19 %（减少105吨），主要受中国和印度市场影响。 未来需重点关注ETF资金流入情况。我们认为，若无ETF资金流入，第一季度黄金 需求将出现下滑 ...

工银国际首席经济学家程实对记者表示，美国滥施关税对美国经济增长的反噬作用已初现端倪。一方 面，美国劳动力市场边际降温，企业在政策不确定性下趋于保守。另一方面，美国实际通胀降温放缓， 通胀预期持续攀升。密歇根大学消费者调查显示，4月美国消费者信心指数进一步下降至52.2，未来一 年美国通胀预期从3月的5.0%上升至6.5%，长期通胀预期从3月的4.1%升至4.4%。通胀预期影响各部门 投资消费决策，往往对实际通胀水平形成前瞻性指引。若通胀预期持续高企，美联储可能需要继续延长 紧缩政策，以防止攀升的预期进一步向实际通胀传导。 美国一季度经济陷入萎缩，环比折年率"转负"。虽然这暂时难以界定为经济的全面衰退，但程实提醒， 如果政策不确定性持续压制美国二季度经济增速，美国经济则将陷入广泛意义上的技术性衰退。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美国滥施关税的不确定性阴霾下，观望情绪笼罩市场，美股三大指数全线下挫。过去一周，标普500 指数累计下跌0.47%，纳指跌0.27%，道指跌0.16%。 Nationwide首席市场策略师Mark Hackett表示，过去一周有一些积极进展，但市场仍处在受新闻周期影 响的大起大 ...

Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, with a goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion and a services trade deficit of $59.3 billion [1] - Japan's national debt has hit a record high for the ninth consecutive year, totaling ¥132.37155 trillion [3] Trade Policies - U.S. Commerce Secretary stated that tariff negotiations with Japan and South Korea are complex and unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, with a baseline tariff of at least 10% unless partner countries open their economies [1] - U.S. trade advisor emphasized that the EU is a priority in tariff negotiations due to a significant trade deficit, with the EU's VAT system being a focal point [1] Central Bank Perspectives - European Central Bank's Rehn suggested considering interest rate cuts if economic growth slows and inflation decreases due to uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [2] - New York Fed President Williams noted that U.S. trade policies increase economic downside risks, stressing the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations [1][2] Market Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.29% to 41,249.38 points, while S&P 500 decreased by 0.07% to 5,659.91 points [4] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.70% to $3,329.10 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 0.81% to $32.88 per ounce [4] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil main contract rose by 1.92% to $61.06 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract increased by 1.65% to $63.88 per barrel [5] Bond Market - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.889%, while 10-year yield decreased by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [6]

与此同时，华尔街机构对今年降息幅度的预测从0到125个基点不等，凸显政策路径的不确定性。多家顶 级投行经济学家预计，今年要么降息两次，要么降息三次，从7月或9月开始。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔的最新表态彻底浇灭了债券交易员的降息热情。随着央行明确表 示不急于启动宽松周期，投资者正重新评估利率政策前景。 上周鲍威尔重申央行将保持观望立场后，交易员迅速调整头寸，将2025年降息幅度预期下调至不足75个 基点，并将第一次降息时点推迟至7月。 这一预期能否维持将取决于未来数周美国经济与通胀走势。上周末的中美贸易谈判细节及周二即将公布 的CPI数据都可能引发市场再度转向。鲍威尔警告称，在政策制定者寻求厘清关税政策影响之际，特朗 普大规模加征关税正同时推高通胀与失业风险。 "债券市场正在接受这样一个事实，即通胀将高于最初的预期，这对于投资者认为美联储会介入并降息 的观点来说，是一个复杂因素，"PGIM固定收益联席首席投资官Greg Peters表示。他所在机构管理着超 过8500亿美元资产。 期权市场涌现大量对冲头寸，押注美联储今年可能按兵不动，甚至有仓位开始预期2025年全年不会降 息。相比之下，在最新非农 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250511 美国 4 月 CPI 前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 ◼ 海外政治：美英贸易磋商取得阶段性成果，中美高层接触释放缓和信号。 英国和美国于本周四（5 月 8 日）宣布一项降低部分商品关税的协议。 虽然特朗普此前宣布的对世界各国进口产品征收 10%的关税仍然有效， 并且仍然适用于进入美国的大多数英国商品，但该协议降低或取消了英 国部分出口产品的关税，包括汽车、钢铁和铝。特朗普在社交媒体平台 将此协议定性为"公平、开放、互惠"的贸易安排，并借机宣示其贸易 谈判策略的成效。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特亦同步透露， 另有二十余项贸易协议正处于谈判收尾阶段。需注意的是，美英贸易谈 判的特殊性限制了其外推价值：其一，美国对英贸易长期保持顺差，特 朗普政府核心关切的贸易失衡问题在此次谈判中并非核心议题；其二， 协议内容仅针对特定商品条款展开，而非如英印自贸协定般构建全面经 贸框架。因此，美英谈判进展或难以直接映射美国与其他经济体的谈判 逻辑。在中美关系方面，双方高层于 5 月 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行近 8 小时的实质性磋商，系 ...