Core Viewpoint - The new Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher advocates for a "growth mindset" in the Eurozone to address current economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - Kocher highlights that sluggish economic growth in some European countries may lead businesses to pass inflation costs onto consumers, posing risks to price stability [1] - He suggests that raising benchmark interest rates could be a measure to control inflation, but it may also dampen economic growth momentum [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Kocher, who replaces hawkish Robert Holzmann, has not provided detailed comments on monetary policy and identifies himself as neither a hawk nor a dove [1] - He emphasizes the importance of making decisions based on facts and timing [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Challenges - The "growth mindset" Kocher refers to encompasses not only economic output but also addressing labor shortages, energy transition, and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - He plans to propose productivity-enhancing suggestions in future blog posts [1] Group 4: Policy Coordination - Kocher indicates that fine-tuning monetary policy and achieving intelligent coordination between monetary and fiscal policies may play a more crucial role than in the past [1] - He notes that the limited effectiveness of such coordination has been a weak point in Eurozone economic policy over recent decades [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to be relatively quiet due to the Labor Day holiday in the US and Canada, with a focus on the manufacturing PMI data for August from major economies, particularly the UK and Eurozone, which indicate continued contraction [1] - The Eurozone's August CPI initial value is being monitored to see if it remains steady at 2% or increases, which could impact the European Central Bank's decisions on interest rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Australia's GDP for Q2 is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6%, which is crucial for maintaining confidence in the economy, especially after recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] Group 2 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is expected to rise to 49, and if it falls below 48, it would mark the lowest level since October of the previous year, affecting market confidence in economic prospects [3] - The US ADP employment figures for August are projected to slow down to 68,000 after a surprising increase in the previous month, which could influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - The Eurozone's Q2 GDP revision is expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.4%, which may support the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged [8]

Group 1 - India's GDP grew by 7.8% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding economists' expectations of 6.7% and surpassing Q1's growth of 7.4% [1] - The strong growth is partly attributed to exporters rushing shipments to the U.S. before the implementation of new tariffs [2] - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, raising concerns about the impact on India's economic growth and corporate profits [1][2] Group 2 - The new tariffs could reduce India's annual growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points, according to Citigroup economists [2] - The Indian government is taking measures to stimulate private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, including a planned reduction in consumption tax [3] - The Reserve Bank of India may maintain current interest rates due to the recent economic growth, with expectations of a nominal GDP growth rate increase of 0.6 percentage points from tax cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has depreciated significantly against the US Dollar, reaching a historical low due to concerns over tariffs and capital outflows, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Depreciation - On August 29, the Indian Rupee fell by 0.8% to 88.3125 against the US Dollar, marking a historical low [1][2]. - The depreciation is attributed to fears regarding a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to negatively impact India's economic growth and corporate earnings [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Citigroup estimates that the tariffs could reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6-0.8 percentage points [2]. - The Indian government anticipates that the tariffs will affect exports worth $48.2 billion [4]. - The tariffs consist of a 25% punitive tariff on goods due to India's import of Russian oil, combined with an existing 25% tariff on various products, leading to a total tariff rate of 50% on items such as clothing, jewelry, and chemicals [2][4]. Group 3: Trade Relations - The US-India trade negotiations have been delayed due to the cancellation of a US trade delegation's visit to India, which was scheduled for late August [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary has indicated that trade agreements with India and other partners are still pending, with hopes to finalize negotiations by the end of October [5]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Concerns - Analysts warn that the 50% tariffs could severely impact small businesses in India, particularly in textiles, seafood, and jewelry, with reports of order cancellations from the US [3][4]. - The potential for large-scale unemployment in key export regions of India is a significant concern, as the country may lose its position in global value chains [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's industrial production in July declined by 1.6% month-on-month, primarily due to a 6.7% drop in the automotive industry, influenced by U.S. tariff policies [1] Industry Summary - The seasonally adjusted industrial production index for July stood at 101.6, with 9 out of 15 industries experiencing a decline in production [1] - The automotive and production machinery sectors were the most significant contributors to the decrease in the industrial production index [1] - In contrast, sectors such as electrical and information communication machinery, as well as the chemical industry, showed production expansion [1] Output and Inventory Summary - The industrial shipment index fell by 2.5% to 98.9, while the inventory index increased by 0.8% to 100 [1] Economic Outlook - The Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, Toshihiro Nagahama, predicts a potential reduction in industrial production in the third quarter, which may negatively impact economic growth for the quarter [1]

Group 1 - Japan's automotive industry production declined by 6.7% in July, significantly impacting the industrial production index, which fell by 1.6% month-on-month [1] - The seasonally adjusted industrial production index for July stood at 101.6, with 9 out of 15 industries experiencing a month-on-month decline [1] - The automotive and production machinery sectors were the most affected, while sectors like electrical and information communication machinery, as well as the chemical industry, showed growth [1] Group 2 - The industrial shipment index decreased by 2.5% to 98.9, while the inventory index increased by 0.8% to 100 [2] - The chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute predicts a potential reduction in industrial production in the third quarter, which may negatively affect economic growth for the quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [3]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [3]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [3]. Inflation Outlook - The Central Bank forecasts that the average inflation rate for 2025 will be between 14% and 15%, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [3][5]. - Despite the positive outlook, inflation remains above the target level, indicating ongoing challenges [5]. Economic Growth - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [4]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03%, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth [7]. - The tourism sector, particularly restaurants and hotels, experienced a growth of 23% [7]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth [7]. Sectoral Performance - The communication and information technology sector grew by 14.7% [7]. - However, the Suez Canal's transport volume has decreased due to geopolitical tensions, leading to a 23.1% decline in related revenues [7]. - The oil and gas sector is facing challenges but is expected to recover with new development projects [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has significantly cut interest rates by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, driven by declining inflation and improving employment conditions [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overnight deposit rate has been reduced from 24.00% to 22.00%, and the overnight lending rate from 25.00% to 23.00% [2]. - The Central Bank aims to anchor inflation expectations and maintain a downward trajectory of inflation through this rate cut [2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating a positive trend in the job market [2]. - The Central Bank forecasts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, with a target of 7% by Q4 2026 and 5% by Q4 2028 [2][4]. Economic Performance - Egypt's economy is showing signs of recovery, with a real GDP growth rate of 5.4% in Q2 2025, compared to just 2.4% in the previous fiscal year [3]. - Inflation has decreased from 16.5% in the previous quarter to 15.2% in Q2 2025, with negative monthly growth rates in July 2025 for both overall and core inflation [3]. - The non-oil manufacturing sector grew by 16.03% in Q2, contributing 1.9 percentage points to GDP growth, while the tourism sector saw a 23% increase [5]. - Exports of goods and services surged by 54.4% in Q2, significantly outpacing the 18.7% increase in imports, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to real GDP growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen's economy showed stable performance in the first half of 2025, with some districts experiencing better growth in Q2 compared to Q1, but the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be strengthened [2][4][8]. Economic Performance - The total GDP of Shenzhen reached 18,322.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [4][5]. - The top three districts by GDP are Nanshan District (4,980.06 billion yuan), Futian District (2,953.15 billion yuan), and Longgang District (2,809.67 billion yuan) [5][6]. - Seven districts had GDP growth rates exceeding the city average, with the highest growth in the Special Cooperation Zone (12.4%), followed by Dapeng New District (8.7%) and Futian District (7.9%) [5][6]. Industrial Growth - The industrial added value in Shenzhen increased by 4.3% year-on-year, slightly above the provincial average of 4.0% [9]. - The Special Cooperation Zone led the growth in industrial added value at 22.0%, primarily driven by the automotive manufacturing sector [9][11]. - Nanshan District's industrial added value grew by 6.5%, reflecting a strong performance in high-tech industries [11]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Shenzhen reached 4,948.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [14]. - Nanshan District had the highest growth in retail sales at 13.1%, while Bao'an District's growth was 7.2% [14][16]. - Various districts are actively promoting consumption through initiatives like issuing consumption vouchers and hosting cultural and tourism events [18]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.1% [19][21]. - Five districts achieved positive growth in fixed asset investment, with Nanshan District leading at 6.5% [21]. - Industrial technology renovation investment saw significant growth, particularly in Pingshan District (283.9%) and Longhua District (107.7%) [21].

Group 1 - The U.S. has officially imposed a 50% tariff on Indian products, effective from August 27, 2023, impacting a trade volume of $128.8 billion, with Indian exports to the U.S. valued at $87.3 billion in 2024 [1][3][2] - The tariff applies to all Indian goods imported for consumption, with exceptions for goods already in transit and certain humanitarian aid [2] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points, according to Citigroup [6][7] Group 2 - The Indian rupee has depreciated against the dollar, and the Sensex 30 index has dropped over 1%, marking its worst performance in three months [1][2] - Foreign investors are accelerating their exit from the Indian market, with net selling of Indian stocks for the second consecutive month in August [3] - Indian exporters warn of a potential 20% to 30% decline in exports to the U.S. starting in September, particularly affecting the textile and apparel sectors [4][5] Group 3 - The Indian apparel sector, which relies heavily on the U.S. market for about one-third of its exports, could see a decline of $2.5 to $3 billion due to the tariff [5] - The Indian government has indicated that affected exporters will receive financial assistance and be encouraged to explore alternative markets [9] - The future of U.S.-India trade negotiations will largely depend on the policy priorities of the Trump administration, including domestic and international issues [9]