多晶硅盘中巨震振幅高达6.67%，最高触及4.6万关口，此后高位回落再次企稳4.3万之上。 多晶硅期价冲高回落 机构：短期或延续偏强整理 17日，广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")发布《关于对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货SI2509合约交易限额的通知》。 截至7月18日，本周多晶硅(N型致密料)市场均价46.2元/千克，即期制造成本约40.08元/千克，即期单公斤净利约为6.1元/千克。价格方 面，本周多晶硅N型致密料均价环比上涨5.7元/千克。成本方面，硅粉价格上涨，成本环比上涨0.53元/千克，本周多晶硅环节净利润环比 上涨5.17元/千克。(Mysteel) 银河期货表示，近期多晶硅市场传言较多，且主要交易"反内卷"、不低于成本销售。本周多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件均召开相关会议， 确定标杆成本及价格，多晶硅价格上涨已顺利向下传导，需进一步关注电站环节动向。当前主力合约涨超45000元/吨，理论上厂家卖交 割已不再低于完全成本。价格已至高位，前期多单可止盈离场，新进多单可日内操作。工业硅方面，银河期货分析称，近两周期货价格 走强，西北硅厂向贸易商大量出货，工业硅库存由工厂转移至贸易商，部分显性库存隐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has requested certain financial institutions to assess their ability to withstand potential dollar shocks, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the dollar as a cornerstone of financial stability due to the Trump administration's policies [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Bank of England has asked banks to evaluate their dollar financing plans and dependence on the dollar, including short-term liquidity needs [1]. - Some banks have been required to conduct internal stress tests simulating extreme scenarios, such as a complete freeze in the dollar swap market [1][4]. - European regulators have also begun similar assessments, questioning the reliability of the Federal Reserve's support during times of crisis [4]. Group 2: Market Concerns - The dollar's dominant position in the global financial system makes banks particularly vulnerable to liquidity shocks, with no bank able to sustain operations for more than a few days under such conditions [1][4]. - The global market for currency derivatives is substantial, with a nominal value projected to reach $130 trillion by the end of 2024, 90% of which involves the dollar [4]. - Daily new foreign exchange swap contracts amount to nearly $4 trillion, highlighting the scale of dollar dependency [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The concerns regarding dollar liquidity have resurfaced, echoing previous inquiries by the Bank of England in 2019 about crisis-era dollar supply strategies [5]. - The potential impact of the dollar shock on the upcoming industry stress tests by the Bank of England, scheduled for 2025, remains uncertain [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in precious metals, particularly platinum and silver, with various institutions raising their price forecasts due to increased investment demand and tightening physical supply [2][4][5]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Platinum has seen a price increase of over 57% this year, while silver has risen by 30%, both reaching multi-year highs [2][4]. - The performance of palladium and copper has also been notable, with increases of over 36% and 36% respectively, while gold has risen by 26% [2]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector has been strong, with a 19.54% increase, ranking first among 31 sectors [3][6]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - There has been a surge in sales of silver products, such as silver bars and coins, alongside a continuous increase in silver ETF shares [3]. - Citigroup has raised its price targets for platinum and silver, predicting silver could exceed $40 per ounce in the coming months due to tightening supply and rising investment demand [4]. - The World Gold Council suggests that geopolitical tensions and economic downturns could further boost gold prices by 10% to 15% [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other sectors, with all sub-industries showing positive growth [6]. - The precious metals sector has led the market, with specific ETFs linked to precious metals showing significant year-to-date gains [6]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of investment demand in driving silver prices, indicating a strong correlation between investment demand and price movements [5]. Group 4: Strategic Metals and Policy Risks - The article discusses the political and policy risk premiums associated with trading strategic metals, highlighting the need for a long-term view on supply chains and national security [7].

美国经济数据超预期提振石油需求，油价应声上涨。零售销售环比增长0.6%，原油库存锐减390万桶，叠加伊拉克油田遭袭减产，供应紧张格局凸显市场旺 盛需求。地缘风险与政策不确定性为短期波动注入变数，但经济韧性支撑油价中期平稳运行。邓正红软实力表示，美国公布的经济数据好于预期，缓解了对 石油需求疲软的担忧，石油软实力向上运行，周四（7月17日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油8月期货结算价每桶涨 1.16美元至67.54美元，涨幅1.75%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油9月期货结算价每桶涨1.00美元至69.52美元，涨幅1.46%。美国商务部数据显示，美国6月份 零售和食品服务业销售金额为7201亿美元，环比增加0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，而5月份数据为环比下跌0.9%。上周美国原油库存减少390万桶，远超路 透调查分析师预测的55.2万桶降幅。国际能源署指出，产量增长并未导致库存增加，表明市场存在旺盛需求。 长期需求趋势与软实力动态均衡。化石燃料仍占全球能源结构80%，发展中经济体工业化与人口增长支撑长期需求，体现软实力的"趋势预见"能力。当前油 价平稳是多重软实力（如政策调整、地 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing popularity of "Zhi Liao Hong" (Cicada nymphs) as a food source, with more people participating in catching them at night [1][10][14] - "Zhi Liao Hong" is recognized for its high nutritional value, containing 15-20g of protein per 100g, which is superior to common meats [7][8] - The price of "Zhi Liao Hong" has surged, with reports indicating prices exceeding 100 yuan per kilogram, and some individuals catching over 600 in one night for sale [16] Group 2 - The article highlights various cooking methods for "Zhi Liao Hong," including frying, grilling, and stir-frying, which contribute to its appeal [20][21][24] - There are health considerations for consuming "Zhi Liao Hong," as certain groups, such as those with allergies, kidney disease, gout, and liver disease, should avoid it due to potential adverse effects [28][29][30][31] - The nighttime activity of catching "Zhi Liao Hong" is portrayed as a nostalgic and enjoyable experience for many, reminiscent of childhood memories [18]

慢性静脉功能不全的患病风险会随着年龄增长而上升，在美国，每年有约15万人被诊断出患有这种疾 病，症状包括下肢或脚踝肿胀、腿部疼痛或抽筋、静脉曲张、疼痛或皮肤变化等。 尽管特朗普目前身体健康状况良好，但美国哈佛大学医学院急诊医学助理教授杰里米·福斯特（Jeremy Faust）认为，对于特朗普这样体重超标的人，需要评估是否存在其他更严重的疾病风险。 慢性静脉功能不全的患病风险会随着年龄增长而上升，对于特朗普这样体重超标的人，需要评估是否存 在其他更严重的疾病风险。 7月17日，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，美国总统特朗普在发现腿部出现肿胀后，被诊断患有慢性静脉功 能不全（CVI）。 据特朗普的医生肖恩·巴尔巴贝拉（Sean Barbabella）发布的报告，对特朗普双侧下肢进行了多普勒超声 检查，结果显示患有慢性静脉功能不全，这是一种良性且常见的疾病，尤其多见于70岁以上人群。 慢性静脉功能不全是一种非常常见的血管疾病，主要影响下肢静脉系统。这种疾病会导致血液无法有效 地从腿部回流至心脏，造成静脉高压和血液在下肢淤积。 报告中称，实验室检测结果均在正常范围内，且没有发现深静脉血栓或动脉疾病的迹象。此外，特朗普 还接受 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29-30, highlighting structural challenges facing the U.S. economy [1][3]. Economic Growth and Labor Market - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth momentum, evidenced by weakening hard economic indicators (industrial production, retail sales) and soft market sentiment data [3]. - The labor market is in a "critical state," with signs of slowing hiring rates and a mild increase in unemployment, posing a threat to the Fed's dual mandate of achieving full employment [3]. - Waller's assertion that the current policy rate (4.25%-4.5%) is significantly above the neutral rate (approximately 3%) supports his call for a rate cut [3]. Trade Policy and Inflation - Waller presents a differentiated analysis of trade policy impacts on inflation, suggesting that a hypothetical 10% tariff would only translate to a 0.75%-1% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), characterized as "one-time and non-persistent" [4]. - He emphasizes that the Fed should focus on long-term economic trends rather than short-term price fluctuations, especially as core inflation expectations remain stable [4]. Policy Path and Flexibility - Waller outlines a clear policy adjustment roadmap, indicating that the July rate cut is just the beginning, with future actions strictly adhering to data dependency principles [5]. - He notes that if economic data confirms accelerating weakness, further rate cuts may be considered, while stronger-than-expected data could lead to a pause in adjustments [5]. Market Impact and Investment Strategy - Waller's remarks have significantly increased the probability of a July rate cut, with market pricing for a rate cut exceeding 60% prior to the meeting [8]. - In the bond market, the yield curve may steepen, with short-term Treasury yields likely to decline due to anticipated rate cuts [8]. - The dollar index may face temporary pressure in the forex market, while growth stocks could benefit from lower interest rate expectations, although caution is warranted regarding potential impacts on corporate earnings due to economic slowdown [8]. Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to utilize forex options to construct dollar volatility hedging strategies and to consider the allocation value of safe-haven assets like gold amid policy uncertainty [9]. - ETO Markets will continue to monitor economic data releases and official statements to provide forward-looking strategic support for investors [9].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with an expected increase to $3,700 by the end of 2024 [3][6] - Central banks globally purchased an average of approximately 77 tons of gold per month from January to May this year, with China being the largest identifiable buyer [3][6] - The COMEX gold futures price has seen a cumulative increase of 27.39% for the entire year of 2024, marking the largest annual increase since 2010 [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset, enhancing its appeal amid rising risks [8][9] - The potential for a decline in the value of the US dollar due to high inflation and increasing fiscal deficits could lead to higher gold prices, as gold is typically priced in dollars [9][11] - Many central banks are increasing their gold reserves as part of a strategy to diversify away from the US dollar, which supports the demand for gold and contributes to its price stability [11]

Core Viewpoint - The change in the actual controller of *ST Chuangxing due to the auction of shares held by its controlling shareholder, Huqiao Industrial, has significant implications for the company's future direction and financial health [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - *ST Chuangxing announced a change in its actual controller to Wang Xiangrong after Huqiao Industrial's 67 million shares were auctioned, resulting in a new ownership structure [1]. - Liou Co., through its subsidiaries, acquired 42 million shares of *ST Chuangxing for a total price of 153 million yuan, representing approximately 9.88% of the company's equity [1]. - Following the auction, Huqiao Industrial's shareholding decreased from 101 million shares to 34.6641 million shares, reducing its stake from 23.90% to 8.15% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, *ST Chuangxing reported a revenue of only 247,700 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 97.83%, and a net loss of 5.2909 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 311.83% [3]. - The company anticipates a half-year net loss for 2025 between 12.5 million and 15.5 million yuan, with a non-recurring net loss expected to be between 13 million and 16 million yuan [3]. - The significant drop in revenue is attributed to a large decrease in business scale, despite a reduction in expenses compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Business Outlook - The new controller, Wang Xiangrong, is known for his aggressive acquisition strategy, having transformed Liou Co. into a diversified business since 2014, but the core business of *ST Chuangxing differs significantly from Liou Co.'s [2]. - *ST Chuangxing is primarily engaged in building decoration, mobile information services, and emerging computing power services, which are still in the exploratory phase and have not yet generated actual revenue [2]. - The company is at risk of delisting, as it must achieve 300 million yuan in revenue by 2025 to avoid delisting risks triggered by its 2024 audited financial data [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].