Group 1: Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" signal from policy levels is driving structural adjustments in the power equipment and new energy sectors, indicating a shift from disorderly competition to high-quality development [1] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing accelerated elimination of backward production capacity under policy guidance, with signs of price stabilization in silicon materials and glass [1] Group 2: EVE Energy's Global Expansion - EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for a 30GWh power battery factory in Hungary and a 38GWh energy storage battery project in Malaysia, marking a critical phase in its global layout [1] - The Hungary project targets local demand from European automakers, focusing on the production of 46 series cylindrical batteries, while the Malaysia project aims at the Southeast Asian energy storage market [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Financial Challenges - The shift in industry competition logic is evident as domestic lithium battery capacity faces significant overcapacity pressure, while policies in Europe and the U.S. favor localized supply, creating new opportunities [2] - EVE Energy's "China manufacturing + overseas base" model helps avoid trade barriers and shortens the distance to core customers, but the projected 2027 production timeline for the Hungary project coincides with competitors like CATL and Sunwoda, indicating potential market competition intensity [2] - As of March 2025, EVE Energy has cash reserves of 13.435 billion yuan, but the total investment demand for overseas projects far exceeds current reserves, with a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 62% [2] - The energy storage business's strategy of "exchanging price for volume" has led to a continuous decline in gross margins, with the average price of energy storage batteries expected to drop by 33% year-on-year in 2024 [2] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" actions are transitioning from initiatives to tangible implementations, with major domestic photovoltaic glass companies collectively announcing a 30% production cut, expected to reduce July output to 45GW, which has led to a rebound in glass prices [3] - The central financial committee has mandated the rectification of low-price disorderly competition, indicating that supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector have entered an execution phase [3] - The silicon material segment is becoming a focal point for capacity consolidation, with recent rumors of "silicon material storage" leading to price recovery, as the average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type materials has risen to 34,700 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase [3] - The new photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards raise the threshold for new capacity, further curbing inefficient expansion [3] - The competitive focus is shifting from price to technological differentiation, with advancements in large-size N-type cells and perovskite tandem technologies accelerating, allowing leading firms to achieve cost reductions and efficiency improvements [3] - The primary contradiction in the photovoltaic sector has shifted from insufficient demand to oversupply, with the potential for marginal improvements as policies and corporate actions drive capacity elimination [3]

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds primarily for its 30GWh battery factory in Hungary and a 38GWh energy storage project in Malaysia, to accelerate its global capacity expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Overseas Expansion - EVE Energy is pursuing a dual overseas strategy, focusing on a 30GWh battery project in Hungary and a 38GWh energy storage base in Malaysia, with production expected to start in 2027 and 2025-2026 respectively [3]. - The investment in Malaysia amounts to 8.654 billion yuan, positioning it as a multi-scenario lithium battery production base to meet energy storage needs and support electric two-wheelers and tool batteries [3]. - The Hungarian base targets local battery supply for European automakers like BMW and Mercedes, aligning with the company's recent capacity expansion strategy [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite domestic overcapacity, the overseas market presents significant opportunities, with Chinese lithium battery companies planning to build 58 factories abroad, totaling a designed capacity of 787.5GWh and an investment exceeding 363 billion yuan [4]. - EVE Energy's international capacity expansion is part of a broader trend among leading battery manufacturers, with major players like CATL and Sunwoda also establishing factories in Hungary [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - EVE Energy's revenue from energy storage batteries reached 19.027 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.44%, with the segment's revenue share rising from 33.5% to 39.1% [6]. - The average selling price of energy storage batteries decreased from 0.6 yuan/Wh to 0.4 yuan/Wh in 2024, leading to a decline in gross margin from 17% to 14.7% [6]. - The company's cash flow has improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 0.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a significant turnaround from -1.751 billion yuan in the previous year [8]. Group 4: Capital Structure and Debt - EVE Energy's cash reserves increased by 48.21% to 13.435 billion yuan as of March 2025, although this still falls short of the total investment needs for its overseas projects [8]. - The company's debt ratio has risen to 62%, with interest-bearing liabilities reaching 32.819 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.97% year-on-year increase [8]. - Financial expenses surged by 131% to 0.181 billion yuan in Q1 2025, primarily due to interest payments [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [60]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading manufacturer in the personal hygiene care products sector in China, with a focus on disposable hygiene products such as baby diapers, adult diapers, menstrual pants, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes. It has accelerated its layout of proprietary brands and is expanding into the sanitary napkin market through the acquisition of Hubei Sibao Group [1][13]. - The diaper industry is expected to recover in 2025, driven by price increases, despite a projected decline in retail scale for 2024. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in newborn numbers and the expansion of production capacity [2][29]. - The sanitary napkin market is experiencing growth, with the company leveraging its newly acquired brand, Jieting, to drive sales through e-commerce channels and new product launches [3][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the manufacturing of personal hygiene products, with a strong focus on research and development. It has successfully partnered with high-quality clients and is expanding its proprietary brand portfolio [1][13]. Diaper Industry Outlook - The Chinese diaper market is projected to have a retail scale of approximately 41.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a decline in sales volume but stable average prices. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in newborn numbers and the expansion of its production capacity [2][29]. Sanitary Napkin Market Dynamics - The sanitary napkin market is projected to grow, with a retail scale of about 99.5 billion yuan in 2024. The company is focusing on e-commerce and new product launches to enhance its market position [3][43]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.6 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 17.5%, 18.5%, and 20.0% for the following years. The current stock price reflects a lower PE ratio compared to peers, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4][60].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jinhua New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jinhua New Materials") is set to undergo an IPO review on July 4 at the Beijing Stock Exchange, aiming to raise a total of 768 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - Jinhua New Materials' revenue is projected to grow from 994 million yuan in 2022 to 1.239 billion yuan in 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue at 282 million yuan, reflecting a 9.98% year-on-year decline [3][4] - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to rise from 78.42 million yuan in 2022 to 206 million yuan in 2024, but Q1 2025 shows a 16.89% decline year-on-year [3][4] - Accounts receivable have increased alongside revenue, with the company's asset-liability ratio decreasing from 44.45% in 2022 to 36.26% in 2024, still above the industry average of 35.23% [4][6] Debt and Liquidity - Jinhua New Materials' liquidity ratios are below industry averages, with a current ratio rising from 1.57 in 2022 to 2.12 in 2024, but a net cash ratio of only 0.42 indicates weak cash flow coverage [4] - The company has faced scrutiny from the Beijing Stock Exchange regarding its debt indicators, which are lower than comparable companies, raising concerns about liquidity risk [4][6] Related Party Transactions - A significant portion of Jinhua New Materials' procurement is from its controlling shareholder, Juhua Group, with related party purchases accounting for 38.08% to 28.93% of total procurement from 2022 to 2024 [6][8] - The company has been questioned about selling prices to related parties being lower than those to non-related parties, with average prices for certain products being 1%-4% lower [8][9] Production Capacity and Market Conditions - Despite a declining market for its core product, silane crosslinking agents, which saw a price drop of 35.4% over three years, Jinhua New Materials plans to invest 507 million yuan to increase production capacity by 30,000 tons [3][10] - The company's production capacity utilization has decreased from 96.19% to 76.15% over the same period, raising questions about the feasibility of expanding capacity under current market conditions [10][11] Customer and Supplier Dynamics - The top five customers accounted for 46.41% to 50.13% of total revenue during the reporting period, with Juhua Group being a significant related party [6] - Jinhua New Materials has established business relationships with potential customers for new products, but the projected sales volume may not fully absorb the new production capacity [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Jinhua New Materials Co., Ltd. (Jinhua New Materials) is preparing for its listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with Zheshang Securities as the sponsor. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of ketoxime series fine chemicals, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic silane crosslinking agents and hydroxylamine salts sectors [1][3]. Company Overview - Jinhua New Materials primarily produces silane crosslinking agents, hydroxylamine salts, methoxyamine hydrochloride, and acetaldehyde oxime, which are essential for various applications including organic silicon sealants, pesticides, and environmentally friendly dyes [1]. - The actual controller of the company is the Zhejiang State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, indicating a transition from a private enterprise to a state-owned enterprise [3][5]. Shareholder Structure - As of the prospectus disclosure date, the company had four shareholders: Juhua Group (82.49%), Lishui Jinhong (10.66%), Fujian Shenyuan (3.57%), and Hong Gen (3.28%) [3]. - The second-largest shareholder, Lishui Jinhong, is an employee stock ownership platform, with significant holdings by management [7]. Fundraising and Financial Performance - The company plans to raise 593 million yuan (approximately 59.3 million) through its IPO, with a reduction of 175 million yuan from the initial target of 767.8 million yuan [9][10]. - The funds will be allocated to projects including a 60kt/a high-end coupling agent project, a 500 tons/year JH-2 pilot project, and the construction of a ketoxime industry chain smart factory [9][12]. - Jinhua New Materials has experienced significant revenue fluctuations, with reported revenues of 994 million yuan, 1.115 billion yuan, and 1.239 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, respectively [16]. Customer and Supplier Relationships - The company relies heavily on a few major customers, with the top five clients accounting for over 50% of total revenue. The largest customer is a company controlled by Hong Gen's brother, indicating potential conflicts of interest [17][19]. - Jinhua New Materials' largest supplier is Juhua Group, which has provided a significant portion of the company's procurement needs over the past three years [22][24]. Research and Development - The company's R&D expenses have been lower than the industry average, with R&D expense ratios of 4.84%, 4.46%, and 4.62% over the past three years, compared to higher rates from competitors [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Huali Industrial Group [2]. Core Views - Huali Industrial Group is a leading global ODM manufacturer of athletic shoes, benefiting from a strong customer base and robust global capacity expansion, which enhances its profitability [4][11]. - The company has established stable partnerships with nine of the top ten global athletic brands, maintaining a high revenue concentration while diversifying its customer structure to mitigate risks [5][27]. - Huali's revenue is projected to grow significantly, driven by increased demand in the athletic footwear market and the company's capacity expansion [15][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Huali Industrial Group has been deeply engaged with high-quality customers for over 50 years, establishing itself as a leading player in the athletic shoe manufacturing sector [11]. - The company primarily serves major brands like Nike, Adidas, and Vans, with a total annual shipment of 223 million pairs, making it the second-largest manufacturer globally [4][11]. 2. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Huali's revenue reached RMB 24.01 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, driven by recovering global footwear demand [6][15]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 26.8%, outperforming competitors due to an optimized customer structure and increased high-value brand orders [6][26]. 3. Customer Structure - The top five customers contributed 79.3% of total revenue in 2024, with Nike being the largest, accounting for over 30% of shipments [5][27]. - The company is actively introducing high-growth brands to its portfolio, which is expected to reduce revenue concentration from its top customers over the next few years [27][40]. 4. Capacity Expansion - Huali's production capacity is primarily located in Vietnam, with plans to increase the number of factories from 20 in 2024 to 26 by the end of 2026 [46][48]. - The strategic location of factories in low-cost regions helps maintain competitive manufacturing costs, enhancing overall profitability [48][49]. 5. Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 26.83 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% from 2025 to 2027 [8][15]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 39.51 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 16.2% over the same period [16][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PP trends are weak. The previous core driving force for bulls has disappeared, and the new production capacity has offset the efforts on the supply - side. Macro - factors and domestic capacity expansion trends bring pressure. Although there are optimistic expectations for export due to the possible improvement of the trade war, the overall supply is in surplus, and downstream low - profit situations limit positive feedback. The key to the future seasonal reversal may be the Fed's interest rate cut [5][6]. - LLDPE is in a mid - term volatile market. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the premium caused by polyethylene import risks has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback in the industrial chain, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - **PP Situation**: The situation in the Middle East has tended to pause. The new production capacity has offset the supply - side efforts. Macro - factors such as China's debt - resolution pressure and the recession pressure in Europe and the United States, combined with domestic capacity expansion, bring continuous pressure. In the medium - term, the new production capacity pressure is concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overall supply is in surplus. The export market is affected by the trade war and external economic pressure, with limited incremental space [5][6]. - **LLDPE Situation**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the polyethylene import risk premium has been reversed. The weak demand in the spot market leads to negative feedback, but the rapid decline in social sample warehouse inventory provides short - term support. In 2025, the new production capacity of domestic PE devices on the 09 contract is expected to be 2.05 million tons, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand in the downstream market is weak [7][8]. - **Core Data**: The spot prices of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period and the same period last year. The polypropylene base - spread has slightly strengthened, while the polyethylene base - spread has weakened. The monthly spreads of both have certain changes. The operating rates of polypropylene and polyethylene have decreased compared to the previous period, and the polyolefin inventory has decreased [9]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The non - standard price difference of polypropylene is not conducive to price rebound [17]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The overall short - term operating rate of polypropylene has increased month - on - month, but there are still many overhauls in July. The new production capacity has offset the support from overhauls. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period is 79.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. This week's domestic polypropylene production is 789,200 tons, a 0.23% increase from last week [21][23]. - **Overhaul and New Capacity**: There are still large - scale overhauls in July, but new production capacity and restarts lead to increased production. In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polypropylene is 7.855 million tons, with a capacity increase of 15.4% [25][27]. - **Inventory**: The production inventory and trader inventory of polypropylene have decreased month - on - month. The overall commercial inventory has decreased. The decline in production enterprise inventory is due to the increase in overhauls and the decline in imports, while the decline in trader inventory is due to active sales. The port inventory has increased [28][32]. - **Cost**: The crude oil price has decreased, leading to a decline in polypropylene production costs [33]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH - based polypropylene manufacturers have increased [38]. - **Downstream**: The BOPP operating rate remains flat, the order days have decreased, and the finished - product inventory has increased. The BOPP profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The operating rates of tape master rolls, plastic weaving, non - woven fabrics, and CPP have all decreased, and the order days have also decreased [40][43][48]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL price difference has declined, which is negative for polyethylene. The HD - LL price difference has expanded in the first five months of 2025 and may fluctuate later [64][67]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The operating rate and production of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25% from the previous period. This week's polyethylene production is 595,400 tons, a 2.86% decrease from last week [68][70]. - **Overhaul**: The expected overhaul loss in July is less than that in June [71]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new production capacity of polyethylene is 6.13 million tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [72]. - **Inventory**: The production enterprise inventory and social inventory of polyethylene have decreased month - on - month. The production enterprise inventory has decreased due to more overhauls and less imports, while the social inventory has decreased significantly [74][77]. - **Cost**: The crude oil price has declined, resulting in a decrease in polyethylene production costs [78]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based polyethylene devices has increased [84]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of agricultural films has increased month - on - month, and the order days have also increased. The operating rate of packaging films has decreased, and the order days have decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [86][87][88].

供应端：压力逐渐增加 2025年是近几年PE产能扩张压力最大的一年，也是此轮产能扩张周期的最后一年。上半年PE产能扩张 压力较小，除了一季度多套新装置集中投产之外，二季度几无新装置投产。不过，下半年PE仍将面临 吉林石化、裕龙石化、湛江巴斯夫等多套新装置投产压力，预计届时总产能将突破4000万吨/年。 成本端：利润存在压缩空间 今年PE利润情况较去年明显改善，其中煤制PE利润丰厚，一度达到2000元/吨，虽然近期有所回落，但 是依然在1500元/吨附近。油制PE一改近几年长期亏损的状态，基本扭亏为盈。综合来看，目前PE处于 近五年利润最好的状态，但考虑到PE曾经长期处于亏损状态，并且今年产能扩张压力较大，后期随着 供应压力陆续兑现，利润也存在压缩空间。 进出口：结构或逐渐改变 目前PE进出口格局变化不大，依然是净进口状态。其中，每月进口量在120万吨左右，每月出口量在5 万～10万吨。随着PE新装置陆续投产，国内供应将逐渐转向过剩，届时PE进出口格局或逐渐改变。作 为对比，PP曾经每月净进口30万吨左右，但是随着产能扩张逐渐兑现，进口大幅减少，出口明显增 加。目前PP进口和出口基本抵消，后期PE也有望像PP一 ...