4月25日，省委书记赵一德主持召开省委常委会（扩大）会议暨市（区）委书记工作汇报会，学习 中央政治局会议精神，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。他强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书记在中 央政治局会议上的重要讲话和历次来陕考察重要讲话重要指示精神，深入落实中央经济工作会议部署， 坚定信心再加力、改革创新激活力，持续巩固经济回升、结构向优、发展向好态势，推动高质量发展现 代化建设不断迈出坚实步伐。 赵一德强调，要统筹抓好稳增长和高质量发展各项工作，突出在服务新型城镇化等国家重大战略中 抢抓发展机遇，在推动标志性改革举措落地见效中增强动力活力，在深化外事外经外贸外资外宣联动中 拓展经济纵深，在促进科技创新和产业创新深度融合中培壮新质动能，科学做好"十五五"规划编制工 作，牢牢把握发展主动权。要树立"一盘棋"思想抓落实，用好晾晒点评、调度推进、督导反馈等有效机 制，注重以问题整改校准工作偏差、破解堵点卡点、提升整体效能，以开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神 学习教育为契机改进作风、激发干劲，把各项工作做得更有成效。市（区）委书记要切实担负起促一方 发展、富一方百姓、保一方平安、正一方风气的重大责任，进一步提高政治站位、砥砺担当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to adopt a more proactive and expansive policy stance, focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, foreign trade, employment, stock market, and real estate, while also introducing new incremental policies [1][5][9]. Economic Outlook - The economic situation is anticipated to be acknowledged as stable with a good start in Q1, but challenges will be highlighted, particularly the complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand growth [3][5]. - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is reported at 5.4%, but indicators like CPI and PPI suggest weak demand characteristics remain unchanged, necessitating policy adjustments [5][9]. Policy Direction - The policy tone is expected to be more aggressive and expansive, with a focus on "real money" measures to stabilize various economic sectors [5][9]. - There is an emphasis on implementing existing policies while also introducing new measures to address external uncertainties [5][9]. Key Focus Areas - Specific areas of focus include central leverage, stabilizing foreign trade and employment, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the stock market and real estate, and enhancing industrial reform [9][10]. - Potential measures may include interest rate cuts, increased fiscal stimulus, and adjustments to the use of funds for existing policies [9][12]. Trade and Employment - The government is expected to emphasize support for foreign trade enterprises and employment, with significant backing for transitioning exports to domestic sales [11][15]. - The stock market may see increased support, with actions from central financial institutions to stabilize market confidence [11][15]. Infrastructure and Reform - More infrastructure projects are likely to be launched, focusing on urban renewal and water conservancy [12]. - Long-term reform efforts will continue, with attention to national market unification and state-owned enterprise reforms [12][13]. Recent Developments - Recent government actions include high-level visits to Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation, and responses to increased tariffs from the U.S. [13][14]. - The government is actively supporting the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic markets through various platforms and initiatives [15][16].

文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现、 对等关税 进展。 本 文 前瞻 认 为， 会议 总基 调应 会更 加积 极、 更 加扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4 点前瞻： 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严 峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力、内需增长动力不足等。 一方面，应会肯定经济运行中的积极因素持续增多，如延续 ...

可以预见，宏观政策目标整体将向稳增长、逆周期对冲方向倾斜。对债市而言，长期来看，外需下行可 能对经济增长造成压力。在这一逻辑未被证伪的情况下，其对债市的影响偏积极。中短期来看，政策和 资金利率是影响债市运行节奏的关键因素。当前债市处于区间震荡状态，中短期逻辑限制了其上行空 间。目前资金面较为稳定，利率曲线相对平坦，限制了国债收益率的进一步下行。不过，近几个交易日 人民币汇率压力减轻，税期过后，若资金利率边际下行，则国债收益率下行空间就会被打开。此外，促 消费、稳楼市、宽财政政策也将逐步发力。短期内，在政策节奏不确定和资金面稳定的情况下，债市仍 以震荡为主，预计10年期国债收益率波动区间在1.61%~1.7%。中期内，若降准降息落地，则债市运行 中枢将抬升。 为应对金融市场波动加剧的情况，债券基金灵活运用国债期货来管理利率风险。随着债券基金一季报的 陆续披露，在债市高位回调的背景下，一季度混合债券型基金的净值表现相对纯债型基金更为出色。今 年债市面临高估值、内外因素频繁影响的复杂局面，市场波动加大，操作难度提高，这使得资产配置和 工具运用的重要性愈发凸显。 从债券基金一季报已披露的情况来看，纯债型基金和混合型基 ...

中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2025年二季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 目求 | ● 中金研究团队介绍 p. 2 | | --- | | · 宏观经济 p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 p. 14 | | ● 量化及ESG p. 45 | | ● 固定收益 … p. 52 | | ● 大宗商品 ……………………………… p. 74 | | · 外汇研究 p. 94 | 注:除特别说明,本产品中所有价格数据均截至2025年4月21日 返回目塞 中金研究团队介绍 | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | · 刘刚, CFA | · 周萧漬 | · 许艳 | · ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for high-quality project construction and maintaining strategic determination to ensure economic growth and development [1][3] - The provincial government aims to accelerate project construction, expand effective investment, and stimulate consumption to support the county-level economic development [1][2] - Key reforms will focus on education, technology, and talent systems, as well as state-owned enterprise reforms to enhance efficiency and promote urban-rural integration [2][3] Group 2 - The provincial government plans to implement precise investment attraction strategies, including capital and business-to-business investments, to improve project landing rates [3] - There is a strong emphasis on post-project service and evaluation management to address issues related to project completion and expected output [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining industrial support and stabilizing energy production while implementing policies to boost consumption and unleash domestic demand [3][4]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding the consensus forecast by 0.2 percentage points[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 4.6%, consistent with Q4 2024[3] - Industrial added value in March increased by 7.7%, surpassing expectations by 1.8 percentage points[13] - Retail sales in March grew by 5.9%, exceeding expectations by 1.5 percentage points[21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Q1 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.2%, higher than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points[31] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.1%, while infrastructure investment rose by 5.8%[33] - Real estate investment declined by 9.9%, with new construction area down by 24.4%[36] Consumer Behavior - Per capita disposable income in Q1 2025 was 12,179 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5%[43] - Per capita consumption expenditure was 7,681 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%[45] - The consumption structure showed a trend of "tightening spending," particularly in food, clothing, and healthcare[45] Future Outlook - The introduction of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to negatively impact China's exports and overall economic growth in 2025[51] - Recommendations for macroeconomic policy include diversifying export markets, stabilizing investment, and enhancing domestic consumption[51] - Risks include potential global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[51]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector needs to increase support for stable growth and foreign trade in light of the complex external environment and uncertainties facing the economy [2][3] Economic Performance - In Q1, China's GDP reached 318,758 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and demonstrating economic resilience [1] - The total social financing increased by over 15 trillion yuan in Q1, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Financing Characteristics - The financing structure remains favorable, with rapid growth in key areas such as inclusive finance, small and micro enterprises, and manufacturing, all outpacing the overall loan growth rate [1] - The overall financing costs have decreased, with the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in March at 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, down approximately 45 and 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Currency Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate has shown fluctuations, initially appreciating to around 7.20 against the USD in mid-March, then depreciating to 7.34 due to external factors, and stabilizing around 7.30 recently [2] Financial Support Strategies - The financial sector should focus on four key areas: 1. Targeting stable growth through timely adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates to counter external shocks [3] 2. Ensuring market stability by preventing systemic financial risks and monitoring external impacts, particularly from US tariffs [3] 3. Supporting foreign trade by enhancing financial assistance to foreign trade enterprises, especially small and micro businesses [3] 4. Promoting long-term industrial upgrades by supporting innovation in key sectors such as technology, green initiatives, and consumption [3]

Group 1 - The core challenges facing the economy include the restructuring of global trade, deep adjustments in the real estate market, and long-term pressure from insufficient domestic demand [1] - 68% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate in Q1 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 24% expect it to be between 4.7% and 4.9% [3][4] - The stability of wage and property income is crucial for residents' spending willingness, with income being the primary influencing factor for consumption at 81% [1][6] Group 2 - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic policies to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," with a stronger focus on growth while also addressing risk prevention [1][14] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to create significant challenges for labor-intensive industries and consumer electronics, necessitating policy adjustments [12][13] - The survey indicates that 72% of economists believe China may initiate cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in April to counteract the effects of U.S. tariffs [13] Group 3 - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on stabilizing employment, with 48% of economists identifying stimulating market vitality as a key strategy [10] - The need for increased fiscal support in areas such as consumption, livelihood, and broad infrastructure is highlighted as essential for achieving the 5% growth target [14] - The anticipated expansionary fiscal policy for 2025 is projected to reach 8 trillion yuan, reflecting the need to address external influences and employment pressures [13]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ ——债券周报 20250406 一、关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ 北京时间 4 月 3 日凌晨美国宣布对等关税征收方案，其中对华对等关税加征 34%，叠加 2 月、3 月落地两次报复性加征关税"10%+10%"，对华累计加征关 税 54%，高于市场此前预期。 1、关税影响测算：或拖累名义 GDP 约 1.5~2.2pct。参考市场和学术主流观点， 中国对美出口金额的弹性系数约为-1.0 至-1.5。54%关税加征或对总出口拖累 7.9%-11.9%、下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5pct-2.2pct。由于暂未考虑部分出口需求或转 向非美经济体带来的抵消效应，实际冲击可能低于上述测算结果。 2、国内政策应对：经济下行压力加大，"稳增长"诉求回归。 （1）财政需要多少规模对冲？结合测算，54%关税对应下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5- 2.2pct、拖累经济总量 2.0-3.0 万亿。参考财政乘数 1.0-1.5，则对应需要 1.3 万 亿-3.0 万亿财政资金进行对冲，均值约为 2.18 万亿。 （2）国内政策组合如何演绎？节奏上 ...