Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Justice is planning to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that inflation remains high and on an upward trend, indicating no reason for a rate cut if a meeting were held tomorrow [1] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but the labor market's direction is concerning and warrants close monitoring [1] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that while some recent inflation data shows signs of easing, a surprising surge in service prices poses a "danger signal" [3] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in September, while a 75% probability exists for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The global central bank annual meeting commenced in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with market participants closely watching Fed Chair Powell's speech for insights on future monetary policy [3] Group 3 - The U.S. reported an increase in the August composite PMI to 55.4, the highest in eight months, while initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase since late May [4] - The market is experiencing mixed signals due to the conflicting economic data, contributing to fluctuations in trading [4] Group 4 - The current outlook for gold remains bearish, with expectations of further declines towards key support levels [6] - The market is observing resistance at the 3350 area, with potential downward movements if this level is not sustained [8] - Key support levels are identified at 3325-20, with further critical support at 3300 and 3280 [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

Group 1: Domestic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has launched a pilot program for green foreign debt in 16 provinces and cities, encouraging non-financial enterprises to use cross-border financing for green or low-carbon transformation projects [1] - The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to ensure the smooth completion of ongoing government and social capital cooperation projects, emphasizing the need to prioritize, accelerate construction, and secure financing [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion across various maturities [2] Group 2: International News - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for August reached an unexpected high of 53.3, the highest since May 2022, indicating strong manufacturing output and order growth [3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, indicating potential increases in layoffs [4] - Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about a potential interest rate cut in September, citing persistent inflation concerns [5][6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.90 basis points to 1.7610% [9] - The secondary market saw significant price deviations for several industrial bonds, with some experiencing declines of over 33% [12] - The convertible bond market continued its upward trend, with major indices rising and a total trading volume of CNY 99.58 billion [24] Group 4: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield down by 1 basis point to 4.29% [27] - Major European economies saw an increase in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield rising by 3 basis points to 2.75% [28]

周六的一个小组讨论将邀请英国央行行长贝利、欧洲央行行长拉加德和日本央行行长植田和男，他们将 讨论本次会议的主题：转型中的劳动力市场对政策意味着什么。 每年八月底，美国怀俄明都会发生一件世界金融市场最关注的事件之一：杰克逊霍尔央行年会。这是对 全球各大央行货币政策的一次关键考验，不过，美联储主席的风头比以往任何时候都更加引人注目。 继上个月按兵不动后，美联储必须明确其未来战略：恢复降息还是继续保持谨慎? 美联储主席鲍威尔将于纽约时间周五上午10点（北京时间周五晚10点）发表讲话，这很可能成为本次会 议对华尔街而言的重头戏。 若无意外，这将是鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔上的最后一次演讲 ，在信号相互矛盾的经济背景下，他的每一 句话都将是决定性的线索。 在今年一直维持利率不变以评估关税将如何影响经济之后，美联储可能即将再次降低利率。鲍威尔本周 可能会暗示他的同事们是倾向于哪一方。在通胀高于美联储2%目标的同时，招聘活动也在降温，官员 们迄今为止对于能多快降息存在分歧。 市场定价显示，投资者预计美联储9月份会降息，随后在今年晚些时候至少还会有一次降息。作为美联 储的常客批评者，美国总统特朗普已要求鲍威尔及其同事大幅降低利率，政 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

美股早盘尾声时，哈玛克不支持很快降息的讲话传出后，美国国债收益率集体加速上行。 基准10年期美国国债的收益率升约4.7个基点，接近4.34%，美股午盘进一步升至4.34%上方。对利率前景更敏感的2年期美债收益率升超4.6个基点，升破 3.80%，接近三周来高位。 本周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话前，已有美联储官员表现出不看好下月降息的态度，似乎在给期待鲍威尔释放降息信号的人"打预防 针"。 美东时间21日周四，两名美联储官员在杰克逊霍尔年会当地接收采访。其中，明年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表 示，从现有的经济数据看，FOMC可能并不会在9月降息。她还说，如果明天就要做决定，她不会支持降息。 哈玛克承认对劳动力市场的担忧，但她认为失业率仍接近她估计的充分就业水平。她说："当我权衡这些因素时，我认为，重要的是我们要维持适度紧缩的 政策立场，从而继续将通胀拉回目标水平。" 哈玛克讲话前，周四稍早，今年拥有FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也在杰克逊霍尔年会现场表态，他对广泛预期的9月降息表现犹豫。 克利夫兰联储主席明确反对立即降息 哈玛克在杰克逊霍尔年会期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement six rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next 18 months, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market has shown significant signs of slowing down [1] - Inflation conditions have improved markedly compared to three years ago [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - Stephen Milan's upcoming addition to the Federal Reserve Board and the anticipated new chair replacing Jerome Powell by May suggest a downward trend in interest rates over the next 18 months [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 44,785.5 points, the S&P 500 down 0.4% at 6,370.17 points, marking five consecutive days of losses, and the Nasdaq down 0.34% at 21,100.31 points [1] - Most large tech stocks fell, with the Wande American Tech Giants Index down 0.43%. Notable declines included Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down over 1%, Amazon down 0.83%, and Apple down 0.49% [3] Sector Performance - Energy stocks mostly rose, with Exxon Mobil up 0.62%, Chevron up over 1%, and Western Oil up 0.68% [3] - Airline stocks fell across the board, with Boeing down 0.51%, American Airlines down over 1%, and Delta Airlines down over 2% [4] - Semiconductor stocks mostly declined, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 0.49% and several individual stocks like NXP Semiconductors and ASML down over 1% [4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 1.35% and notable gains in stocks like Xiaoying Technology up over 16% and XPeng Motors up over 11% [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Attention is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference for clues on potential interest rate cuts in September [6] - Recent unemployment claims data showed an increase to 235,000, the largest rise in three months, indicating potential economic concerns [6] - Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on the need for rate cuts, with some suggesting that if employment prospects worsen, a rate cut may be appropriate [8][9]

Monetary Policy Outlook - Three Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for a September interest rate cut [1] - The officials cited insufficient data to support a rate cut and concerns about the impact on inflation expectations [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic still anticipates only one rate cut this year [1] Economic Assessment - The economy is in a transitional period [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.70 basis points to 4.33% and the 2-year yield rising by 4.40 basis points to 3.79%, indicating a decrease in market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester emphasized the importance of maintaining a moderately tight policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels, citing that current inflation remains too high and has been on the rise over the past year [1] - Mester noted that there are no clear signs of economic recession, which diminishes the need for stimulus policies, although she acknowledged some concerns in the labor market [1] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.5% is "slightly tight," and there is intense debate within the Fed regarding the necessity of a rate cut [2] - Bostic expects U.S. economic growth to be "relatively moderate" this year, with a potential rebound next year as businesses gain clearer insights into U.S. economic policy direction [2] - The latest CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September has increased to 25%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased to 75% [2]