2025 年 5 月 8 日 总量研究 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动 ——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 美联储将如何步入特朗普时代？ ——2024 年 11 月 FOMC 会议点评 （2024-11-08） 美联储后续降息路径如何演绎？——2024 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-09-20） 美联储降息窗口逐步临近——2024 年 7 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-08-01） 为什么我们认为9月有望降息？——2024年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-06-13） 美联储整体偏鸽，9 月是降息关键窗口 ——2024 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 （2024-05-04） 核心观点： 美联储第三次暂停降息，声明强调经济面临更大的不确定性，基本符合市场预期。 鲍威尔在发布会上多次强调当前需要等待和观察，并表 ...

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach expresses concerns about market uncertainty due to economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment rates [1][2][6] - Unemployment rates are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [1][7] Group 2 - Gundlach predicts that gold could rise to $4,000, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and existing high debt levels, viewing gold as a true monetary asset [1][2][10] - The current spot price of gold is approximately $3,342.36 per ounce, indicating a potential increase of 19.68% to reach Gundlach's target [2] - The S&P 500 index support level is projected to drop from 5,600 to around 4,600, suggesting significant downside potential [1][5][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened beyond its 200-day moving average, signaling potential economic issues [2][8] - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [2][8] - The market is currently characterized as risk-averse, with gold showing stability amidst volatility in risk assets and some bond markets [9]

Group 1 - Pimco warns that investors are underestimating Trump's commitment to high tariffs, with the risk of economic recession at its highest level in years [1][3] - Trump's recent tariff implementation on major trading partners led to significant market turmoil, but a temporary suspension of tariffs helped stabilize the market [1] - Ivascyn emphasizes that the belief in a complete rollback of tariffs is misguided, indicating uncertainty about returning to pre-tariff conditions [1] Group 2 - Ivascyn suggests that tariffs could lead to a "stagflationary" environment, where economic slowdown coincides with rising price levels [2] - The likelihood of an economic recession is at its highest in years, as noted by Ivascyn, coinciding with warnings from the Federal Reserve about increased uncertainty and potential inflation [3] - Pimco maintains a cautious approach in sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, citing "bubble or complacency" in corporate bonds [3] Group 3 - Despite the cautious stance, Pimco favors high-quality sectors like mortgages due to strong household balance sheets, while slightly increasing holdings in short-term U.S. government bonds [3] - The volatility and uncertainty in the U.S. market, along with deteriorating fiscal conditions, enhance the appeal of diversifying investments into other sovereign debt markets [3] - Ivascyn states that the U.S. will not lose its reserve currency status in the short term, but meaningful progress on deficit issues is unlikely, which may lead to rising price levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dan Ivascyn, the Chief Investment Officer of Pimco, suggests that tariffs may lead to a more "stagflationary" environment, characterized by economic slowdown coupled with rising price levels. The likelihood of entering a recession is at its highest in recent years [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - There is a significant possibility of an economic recession occurring soon, with the highest probability observed in recent years [1] - The expectation is that the ultimate tariff rates will decrease, and there will be close monitoring of how President Trump adjusts policies based on market reactions and policymakers [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Pimco remains optimistic about high-quality sectors such as mortgages, citing strong household balance sheets as a key reason [1] - Over the past two months, Pimco has slightly increased its holdings in U.S. government bonds, with a focus on shorter-term bonds [1]

美国关税政策冲击波正酣之时，中国大力开拓出口市场。5月5日，第137届广交会闭幕。截至5月4日， 本届广交会共吸引来自219个国家和地区的超过28万名境外采购商到会，较去年同期增长17.3%，创历 史新高。图为第137届广交会第三期现场。新华社 自今年1月上任后，美国总统特朗普频频出台各种关税政策，至今没有停止的迹象，反而愈演愈烈。他 在近期的采访中还强调，不会为了和中国举行谈判而取消对华关税。 在4月29日举行的世界贸易组织补贴与反补贴措施委员会会议上，中国代表全面驳斥美国等个别成员 就"产能过剩"对中国提出的不实指责，谴责美国"对等关税"和歧视性补贴政策严重破坏世贸组织规则。 5月7日，中国商务部新闻发言人表示，近期美方通过多种渠道主动向中方传递信息，希望就关税等问题 与中方谈起来。中方在充分考虑全球期待、中方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上，同意与美方进 行接触。国务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将在访问瑞士期间，与美方牵头人美国财长贝 森特举行会谈。 日前，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行春季会议在美国首都华盛顿举行，聚集全球主要经济体官 员，成为外界观察美国与贸易伙伴就关税问题接触的重 ...

核心要点 1. 投资策略调整：因估值因素，去年四季度开始减持超配股票与信贷，今年关税问题升温 后进一步降低风险。当前股票满仓但不超配，投资注重全球布局，看好金融板块，对新兴市 场持谨慎开放态度。 2. 经济形势判断：虽关税致不确定性增加，担忧滞胀和衰退，但经济衰退不是大概率事件。 美国经济优势犹存，科技和金融是经济韧性的关键支撑；欧洲市场今年表现好，是估值重新 定价，未来发展取决于财政等政策实施效果。 3. 科技行业展望：科技股曾因盈利、创新和资本支出表现好，估值受认可。目前资本支出 受关税影响，但企业核心增长因素仍在，只是发展节奏或因经济环境调整。 4. 新兴市场机遇：今年新兴市场因美国进口前置受益，表现优于美国，但长期看仍落后。 新兴市场债务是风险分散工具，收益率有吸引力，投资需谨慎选择，关注特定国家和企业机 会。 5. 美联储政策影响：美联储目前维持利率不变，下半年政策走向受关税、通胀和就业等因 素影响。市场期望降息，若其他央行降息而美联储维持，利差变化会影响资金流动和市场走 势。 6. 美元走势分析：美元近期承压，过去十年助力投资，其作为储备货币地位稳固，虽有波 动但难以被替代。近期走势受外资流动影响 ...

金十数据5月8日讯，Northlight资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示，美联储正陷入困境，对通 胀和经济衰退的担忧正将他们拉向两个方向。正因为如此，美联储将不得不等待失业率飙升后才能恢复 降息，但到那时可能为时已晚。市场将越来越担心经济衰退，除非在关税暂停结束之前达成一些贸易协 议，否则我们将看到市场再次下跌，就像4月初一样。 机构：美联储等到失业率飙升再降息可能太迟 ...

毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk：预计经济衰退的可能性为60%。 ...

美联储前副主席克拉里达：市场已经将经济衰退的可能性定价在40%至50%之间。 ...

美联储前副主席克拉里达表示，市场已经将经济衰退的可能性定价在40%至50%之间。 ...