Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising gold prices and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) has risen by 2.69%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Mingpai Jewelry (up 10.08%) and Hunan Silver (up 6.68%) [1] - The current spot gold price has increased by 1%, reaching $4632.67 per ounce, influenced by escalating regional tensions [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the gold industry in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.58% of the total index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold among the leaders [2]

智通财经APP注意到，由于美国通胀数据弱于预期，支撑了进一步降息的理由，加之地理政治局势依然紧张，白银价格创下历史新高，黄金价格也随之攀 升。 这种白色金属一度上涨3.5%，触及每盎司89.9965美元，而黄金交易价格则接近历史巅峰。美国12月的核心通胀率并未如担心的那样高，尽管经济学家表 示，由于去年年底创纪录的政府长期停摆，数据在人为因素下被压低。 避险需求也受到了美国总统唐纳德.特朗普抓获委内瑞拉领导人、其重新威胁要占领格陵兰岛，以及伊朗可能推翻伊斯兰政权的暴力抗议活动的推动。花旗 集团分析师本周将未来三个月黄金和白银的价格预测分别上调至每盎司5000美元和每盎司100美元。 去年白银表现优于黄金，得益于10月份的空头挤压以及伦敦市场持续的供应紧张，其涨幅接近150%。交易员正在等待美国"232条款"调查的结果，该调查可 能导致对白银征收关税。对潜在征税的担忧导致金属滞留在美国仓库，从而使全球库存进一步收紧。 截至发稿10:25，现货黄金上涨0.8%，至每盎司4,621.92美元。白银上涨3.2%，至89.7457美元，铂金和钯金亦有所上涨。美元现货指数在周二上涨0.2%后持 平。 黄金价格接近历史最高 ...

全球避险情绪波动为汇率添扰。近期中东局势紧张、特朗普对伊朗发军事警告及欧洲强化北极军事存在 的讨论，推升避险需求，作为传统避险货币的瑞郎吸引力上升，1月13日汇率一度跌至0.7970(单日跌幅 0.55%)。但当前避险情绪整体温和，无大规模恐慌性资金流动，既限制瑞郎升值空间，也令美元兑瑞郎 维持窄幅震荡。 技术面看，美元兑瑞郎中长期弱势未改，日线MACD持续运行于零轴下方，下行动能未消。14日RSI指 标约48，处于中性区间，多空暂时平衡；小时级别布林带收口，短期突破动能不足。支撑位方面，前期 低点0.7930为首要支撑，下方0.7860-0.7830为强支撑带；阻力端关注0.7950-0.7960(20日均线附近)及 0.8020-0.8030区间，突破后或冲击0.8060关键位。 后续焦点：数据与政策信号定方向 短期需重点关注美国12月CPI及核心PCE数据：数据走强或缓解激进降息预期，为美元提供支撑；数据 疲软则强化宽松预期，推动汇价向支撑区间回落。同时，瑞士12月CPI数据将影响瑞郎走势，若通缩压 力升温引发降息预期，可能扭转瑞郎短期态势。 中长期核心变量仍是两国央行政策。机构预测，瑞士央行大概率维持 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 14 日 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,027.18 | 0.09% | 1031.00 | 0.14% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,025.52 | 0.33% | 1025.50 | -0.03% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4594.40 | -0.31% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 21030 | 0.39% | 21943.00 | 4.14% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 21048 | 0.78% | 21931 | 4.14% | | | Comex白银2602 | 86.860 | 2.00% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2602 ...

近期金融市场的焦点在于美联储独立性所面临的严峻挑战。相关资料显示，美联储主席鲍威尔已收到司 法部的传票，涉及此前关于办公大楼装修的证词，这一史无前例的法律行动被外界普遍视为政治压力干 预货币政策的信号。FXGT表示，这种政经博弈加剧了投资者对于政策稳定性的担忧，直接导致市场风 险偏好骤降。鲍威尔在声明中将此类威胁视为破坏美联储独立性的"借口"，这种对抗态势的升级，无疑 为避险资产注入了更多溢价空间。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部。具体数据显示，2月黄金期货一 度飙升逾120美元，触及4627.10美元高位，而3月白银同样表现不俗，站稳86美元关口。 1月13日，本周伊始，贵金属市场迎来了里程碑式的突破，黄金与白银价格在避险买盘的强力推动下双 双刷新历史纪录。FXGT认为，当前市场正处于多重风险叠加的敏感期，尤其是美联储内部罕见的司法 动荡与中东地缘政治的持续发酵，共同构筑了贵金属上涨的坚实底部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an increase in gold futures warehouse receipts, indicating a rise in market activity and potential investment interest in gold and silver due to geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Total gold futures warehouse receipts reached 98,283 kilograms, with an increase of 630 kilograms from the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 1,026.86 yuan per gram, peaking at 1,035.34 yuan and closing at 1,027.18 yuan, reflecting a 1.01% increase [1] - Trading volume was recorded at 197,421 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 12,817 contracts to 103,633 [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Starting in 2026, China will implement strict export controls on silver, highlighting its transition to a key strategic resource [1] - The Silver Institute forecasts a continued global silver deficit through 2025, driven by increasing demand in technology sectors such as AI, reinforcing long-term supply shortage expectations [1] - Recent developments, including a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, have heightened market uncertainty, boosting safe-haven demand for silver and gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4600 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic cycles, policy expectations, and a concentration of global risk premiums [1][9] - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a strong correlation, indicating a systemic demand for the entire precious metals sector, with silver showing greater volatility and resilience during liquidity easing periods [6] - Geopolitical risks have significantly contributed to the rise in gold prices, as the ongoing uncertainties have shifted demand for gold from tactical to structural, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a mixed picture, with job additions below expectations, yet the unemployment rate slightly decreased, leading to a neutral market reaction regarding monetary policy [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are impacting the credibility of the dollar, with historical trends indicating that doubts about monetary policy independence often lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual allocation in precious metals rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, as the real risk lies in prolonged inaction rather than short-term price fluctuations [7]

同时，特朗普当前的主要任务是中期选举，这意味着他极有可能将精力放在维护美国经济"内增长"上，这同样意味着特朗普需 要美联储采取宽松的政策。 非农人数不及预期 美国就业市场偏弱 美国劳工统计局报告显示，12月美国非农就业人数增加5万人，不及市场预期的增加6万人，也低于前值的增加5.6万人；12月失 业率为4.4%，略低于市场预期的4.5%。餐饮服务、医疗保障等行业就业有所增长，但零售和制造业就业显著放缓。 从时薪方面来看，12月平均时薪涨幅为0.3%，年率为3.8%，基本符合市场预期，薪资水平相对稳定，这暗示美国通胀大概率将 维持相对稳定。 另外，10月和11月非农就业人数合计下修7.6万人。值得注意的是，2025年全球非农就业人数仅增加58.4万人，平均每月仅增加 4.9万人，是自2020年以来的最弱增幅。 综合来看，美国就业市场依旧延续颓势。在通胀维持相对稳定甚至有望下行的情况下，有利于美联储维持宽松的政策预期。 经济叠加政治 宽松有望延续 一方面，以非农为代表的美国经济数据表现疲软，这需要美联储采取宽松的货币政策来刺激经济增长。 另一方面，进入新的一年，美国总统特朗普即将任命新一任美联储主席，市场预期特朗 ...

Market Overview - A-shares are experiencing high-level fluctuations with increased trading volume, while Hong Kong stocks show resilience, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - As of the morning close, major A-share indices are weakly fluctuating: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, Shenzhen Component down 0.31%, and ChiNext Index down 0.83% [1] - The STAR 50 Index, representing technology innovation, has the largest decline at 1.77%, indicating a deeper adjustment [1] - Trading activity is robust with a half-day turnover of 2.44 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous day, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance Leading Sectors - The media sector leads with a gain of 3.42%, driven by the practical application of AI, particularly in content generation and marketing transformation [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector rises by 2.39%, influenced by heightened global risk aversion and a surge in international gold prices, reflecting concerns over the independence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector increases by 2.18%, supported by clear domestic policies favoring technological innovation and attractive valuations after a prolonged adjustment [3] Declining Sectors - The defense and military sector sees a significant drop of 4.13%, attributed to the retreat of speculative trading following risk warnings from multiple commercial space companies [4] - The electronics and communications sectors also decline, confirming a withdrawal of funds from previously high-performing growth sectors, indicating a phase of profit-taking and a shift towards lower-valued stocks [4] Market Dynamics - The current market differentiation reflects a phase of logical restructuring, with funds moving from overheated speculative themes to sectors with industrial trends, macroeconomic drivers, or safe valuation margins [4] - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with rapid index increases likely coming to a halt, but structural opportunities remain active [4] Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with confirmed industrial trends, particularly in "AI+" applications, ensuring selection of companies with real business connections and potential for order fulfillment [4] - Resources with hedging attributes, such as gold and silver, are recommended due to their close ties to international macroeconomic sentiments [4] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, especially innovative drug supply chains resonating with Hong Kong stocks, is highlighted as an area of improvement [4]

受地缘政治高度不确定影响，1月12日早盘，伦敦现货黄金价格一度突破4600美元／盎司，最高达到 4600.79美元／盎司，再创历史新高。伦敦现货白银涨近5%，逼近84美元／盎司，创下历史新高。 华安基金指数与量化投资部基金经理助理、首席黄金研究员周泓灏分析，黄金大涨背后主要受到两方面 因素推动，一是近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金。委内瑞拉事件仍在发酵，此外伊朗与格 陵兰岛的问题均体现出较大变数，传统国际秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪利好黄金。二是美联储独立性危机 仍在发酵。美联储主席鲍威尔11日遭刑事调查，进一步加剧了市场对政策稳定性的担忧。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青分析称，当前信用货币体系的动摇是支撑贵金属上涨的核心原 因。一方面从美国内部看，美国总统特朗普与美联储之间的争端正持续削弱美元的信用。美联储独立性 的动摇叠加美国财政与政府债务扩张加速均推动了去美元化的进程；另一方面从全球来看，大国博弈逐 渐白热化，国家之间不信任的增加，亦推动去美元化进程。 对于贵金属后续走势，东海期货宏观研究员明道雨认为，短期地缘因素是驱动黄金价格上涨的主要推动 力，维持黄金价格继续上行的观点。美元信用下降、全球央 ...