Core Viewpoint - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is facing disruptions as several regions, including Jiangsu and Chongqing, have suspended the issuance of national subsidies for home appliances, raising consumer concerns. However, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce has confirmed that the "old-for-new" policy will not end prematurely, attributing the suspensions to system upgrades and periodic inventory checks [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Updates - Chongqing has halted the issuance of subsidies for 27 categories of green smart home appliances and home renovation due to exhausted funds, with plans for a second phase of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy being drafted [2][10]. - Jiangsu's Department of Commerce stated that the suspension of subsidies is due to system upgrades, and both online and offline channels will implement quota management until the end of the year [2][10]. - In Guangdong, while some cities have paused certain subsidies, most regions continue to offer them, with the overall "old-for-new" policy set to last until December 31, 2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted consumer spending, with a reported sales volume of 1.1 trillion yuan driven by the program as of May 31, 2025. Approximately 175 million subsidies have been issued to consumers [10][11]. - In Guangdong, the "old-for-new" sales reached 153.45 billion yuan in 2024, benefiting over 11.28 million consumers, making it the largest scale in the country [10][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate the allocation of funds to support the "old-for-new" initiative, which is seen as a key driver for consumption recovery and economic stability [10][11].

Group 1 - The upcoming 618 shopping festival in Changsha is expected to drive a new sales peak in the home appliance and 3C market, supported by government subsidies and merchant discounts [1][2] - As of June 5, 2023, 3.5674 million people participated in the consumption upgrade program, with government subsidies amounting to 2.403 billion yuan, directly boosting sales to 19.979 billion yuan [1][2] - Various promotional strategies are being employed by merchants, including discounts, lotteries, and exclusive member benefits, to attract consumers during the 618 event [1] Group 2 - The trend of home appliance smart upgrades and green initiatives is accelerating a new wave of replacement demand, with overall sales at Tongcheng Electric increasing by over 50% year-on-year since the start of the 618 promotion [2] - The consumption upgrade policy initiated in early 2023 has driven over 5.363 billion yuan in direct consumption, with government subsidies exceeding 1.013 billion yuan, benefiting over 1.84 million transactions [2] - The policy covers 16 categories and 62 subcategories of home appliances, with the highest subsidy rate reaching 20% and a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item [2] Group 3 - Consumers can claim subsidies through the Yunshanfu APP until December 31, 2025, by purchasing eligible products and submitting necessary documentation [3] - The Changsha Municipal Bureau of Commerce has established a dedicated task force to streamline the consumption upgrade process and enhance the experience for both businesses and consumers [3] - Consumers are advised to rely on official channels for information regarding subsidy claims and to avoid misinformation from unreliable sources [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" consumption policy in China has become a key driver for economic growth, significantly boosting consumer spending and promoting structural upgrades in related industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [2][21]. - The policy has been identified as a crucial engine for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with a notable multiplier effect where every 1 yuan of fiscal subsidy stimulates an average of 11.2 yuan in social consumption [2][3][4]. Group 2: Financial Support - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, doubling the previous year's funding of 150 billion yuan, with local governments also increasing their support [3][4]. - The policy has been implemented with a focus on 12 categories of household appliances, with local governments having the flexibility to expand the list based on consumer needs [3][4]. Group 3: Future Trends - Experts predict that the "old-for-new" policy will evolve towards more precise subsidies, broader category coverage, and enhanced recycling technologies, ultimately driving both consumption upgrades and industrial transformation [5][11]. - The emphasis on quality standards within the policy is expected to foster a virtuous cycle where consumption drives supply and vice versa, contributing to sustainable economic growth [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant impact of fiscal policies on boosting consumer spending, particularly through the "national subsidy" programs for replacing old consumer goods [1][2][3] - As of May 31, 2025, the sales generated from the five major categories of consumer goods replacement exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies distributed directly to consumers [1][2] - The "national subsidy" program has sparked consumer enthusiasm, with substantial participation in the replacement of household appliances and vehicles, indicating a strong market response [2][3] Group 2 - The fiscal policy aims to enhance consumer willingness and expand demand by providing direct financial support, which is crucial for stimulating consumption in the current economic environment [2] - In 2024, the central government allocated 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement initiative, which is expected to drive sales of automobiles and home appliances beyond 1.3 trillion yuan [2] - Historical data shows that from 2009 to 2015, the central government invested over 200 billion yuan in subsidies, resulting in a retail sales increase of over 3.5 trillion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of such fiscal measures [3]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival is experiencing significant sales growth, driven by national subsidy policies that stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - Major e-commerce platforms report impressive sales figures, with categories like smartphones, computers, and smart devices seeing over 100% year-on-year growth [1] - Brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Midea have reported sales increases exceeding 200% during the initial phase of the "618" event [1][2] Group 2 - The participation in national subsidies has led to a 283% increase in total sales for home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [2] - Live streaming sales, particularly in small appliances, have become a significant growth driver, with emerging domestic brands performing exceptionally well [2] - The demand for air conditioners and cleaning appliances is expected to surge in the second quarter, with intensified competition in these categories [2] Group 3 - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to positively impact domestic demand for home appliances, benefiting leading brands with strong financial capabilities and comprehensive distribution channels [3] - The implementation of "old for new" policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with substantial sales figures reported in various regions [3][4] - As of early June, the "old for new" program has led to the sale of millions of home appliances and digital products, contributing to a notable increase in overall sales [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The green smart home appliance subsidy program in Chongqing has been suspended due to the exhaustion of available funds, impacting consumer purchasing behavior and the home appliance market [1][4][10]. Group 1: Policy and Funding - The "National Subsidy" policy for green smart home appliances was implemented to promote the replacement of old appliances with new ones, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for 2025, doubling the amount from 2024 [4][5]. - The funding is distributed to local governments based on a 9:1 cost-sharing principle, with varying central government support ratios across different regions [5][6]. - As of June 3, the first round of subsidy funds in Chongqing has been fully utilized, leading to the suspension of the subsidy program until further notice [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The suspension of the subsidy program has led to a significant impact on home appliance sales, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with reports of increased foot traffic and sales prior to the suspension [10]. - Chongqing's implementation of the subsidy program has resulted in 42.88 billion yuan in subsidies claimed, benefiting 3.4 million consumers and driving 288 billion yuan in sales for key products [9][10]. - The overall demand for consumer goods under the old-for-new policy has been strong, with many regions reporting high utilization rates of the initial subsidy funds [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods is not a standalone initiative but is accompanied by a series of measures such as easing access, reducing restrictions, and optimizing regulations, which collectively enhance its effectiveness and stimulate economic growth [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumer Behavior - As of May 31, the number of applications for the automobile "old-for-new" subsidy reached 4.12 million, indicating a robust response from consumers [1]. - In April, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 51.5%, an increase of over 7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1]. - The policy has led to a significant increase in the sales of high-end digital products, with 76% of new purchases falling within the price range of 2000 to 6000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Economic and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" initiative has created a market space worth trillions of yuan, as the total number of automobiles exceeds 300 million and major household appliances exceed 3 billion units [1]. - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 38.8% year-on-year in April, leading all categories of consumer goods [4]. - The total subsidies distributed to consumers in the first five months of this year amounted to approximately 1.75 billion, driving related sales to 1.1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Policy Expansion and Support - In 2024, the policy will expand to include additional categories of household appliances and digital products, with subsidies for new energy vehicle replacements increased to a maximum of 15,000 yuan [3]. - The funding support for the "old-for-new" initiative has reached 300 billion yuan, doubling from the previous year, with over 160 billion yuan already allocated by the end of April [3]. - The policy's flexibility and adaptability are evident as local governments enhance subsidy standards and optimize participation details to maximize consumer benefits [3]. Group 4: Long-term Economic Outlook - International investment banks have raised their growth forecasts for China's economy in 2025, attributing part of this optimism to the positive effects of the "old-for-new" policy on consumption and domestic demand [5].

Core Insights - The implementation of the "trade-in for new" policy is significantly stimulating consumer spending in the appliance market, as evidenced by increased sales figures and consumer engagement [1][2][3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are actively purchasing home appliances, with reports of individuals buying multiple items for new homes, driven by government subsidies [1][4][7] - The demand for products eligible for government subsidies is high, with many customers inquiring specifically about which items qualify for discounts [6][10] Sales Performance - Retailers are experiencing a surge in sales, with some reporting a 300% increase in mobile phone sales since the subsidy policy was enacted [2][11] - In Jinan, a flagship store reported a revenue of approximately 1.3 billion yuan, with over 90% of products participating in the subsidy program [6][14] Policy Impact - The subsidy program has expanded from covering 8 categories to 12, now including mobile phones and tablets, which has further boosted sales in these segments [10][12] - The government is actively supporting businesses by ensuring quick reimbursement of subsidy funds, which alleviates financial pressure on retailers [13][15] Market Trends - The market is witnessing a shift towards higher quality and smarter appliances, with a notable increase in the sales of 3C products (computers, communication, and consumer electronics) [12][14] - Retailers are adjusting product pricing to fit within the subsidy framework, enhancing consumer access to discounted items [12][14] Financial Mechanisms - The government has established a pre-approval mechanism for subsidy funds, allowing businesses to receive up to 80% of the subsidy amount upfront, which encourages participation in the program [14][15] - The overall financial support for the "trade-in for new" initiative is substantial, with plans for significant funding allocations in the coming years to sustain consumer confidence and spending [17]

2025年，按照国家和内蒙古自治区加力扩围消费品以旧换新政策要求，内蒙古自治区财政厅坚决落实中 央和自治区决策部署，迅速行动，做好资金保障。近日，内蒙古自治区财政厅再次下达第二批消费品以 旧换新资金15.79亿元，截至目前，共下达31.58亿元，支持全区各地接续实施消费品以旧换新，保障年 中消费旺季、"6·18"促销等市场需求。 消费品以旧换新政策的持续推进，不仅为消费者带来了实实在在的实惠，也为自治区经济高质量发展提 供了机遇。2025年1—4月，全区社会消费品零售总额实现1658.8亿元，同比增长6.9%，高于全国2.2个 百分点。其中：汽车、家电、通讯器材限上零售额同比分别增长20.5%、30.4%、86.3%，分别高于全国 增速的21个、6.5个、60.9个百分点。随着两批以旧换新资金的陆续投入和政策的深入实施，预计将进一 步拉动消费增长，促进经济循环，为高质量发展注入强劲动力。 今年以来，自治区财政厅会同自治区发展改革委主动对接国家相关部门，积极展示自治区政策实施成 果，全力争取国家加大对自治区的补助资金投入，为全区消费品以旧换新工作提供更坚实的保障。 下一步，自治区财政厅将继续加强政策宣传和引导， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - aspect: Internationally, the US May ISM manufacturing index was 48.5, with manufacturing activity contracting for the fourth consecutive month, and sales - cost inflation reaching the highest level since late 2022. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The economic recovery foundation needs to be consolidated, and policies are expected to be further strengthened [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and smelter profits have been further repaired. However, a zinc smelter in South China has extended its maintenance, and the import window is closed. On the demand side, it is at the end of the peak season, and downstream demand may shrink, but low zinc prices have led to increased bargain - hunting purchases, and inventories are decreasing. - Technical aspect: There is an increase in positions and a decline in price, with a strong bearish atmosphere. Zinc prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and observe, focusing on the range of 21,800 - 22,300 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread was 240 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,693 dollars/ton, up 63.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc was 238,690 lots, up 12,016 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 1,909 lots, up 1,365 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 1,675 tons, unchanged. - The SHFE inventory was 42,310 tons, down 1,763 tons; the LME inventory was 138,150 tons, down 1,000 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 610 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 26.08 dollars/ton, down 2.65 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production was 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 56,800 tons, down 2,200 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc was 15.94%, up 0.76 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 12.27%, up 0.62 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 16.87%, up 0.02 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. - The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in has exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of May 31, 5 major categories of consumer goods trade - in have driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan, with about 175 million subsidies issued. - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI final value was 52, with an initial value of 52.3. - Fed's Daly said she is still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast, which shows two rate cuts by the end of the year. She hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate for now [3].