此外，地缘政治风险的演变也在微妙地影响市场情绪。上周，美伊紧张局势出现了新的动向。一方面， 双方言辞对抗激烈，美国向中东增派航母战斗群，伊朗则宣布在霍尔木兹海峡举行军演，将战争风险溢 价推至高位。另一方面，有消息显示，双方可能进行了后台接触，这又让市场对局势立即失控的担忧略 有缓解。 本轮回撤的根本原因，是黄金前期的交易过热与拥挤。我们此前已多次提示，黄金市场的技术指标已发 出严重过热信号，黄金期权隐含波动率已上升至历史极端位置，意味着波动率的放大、市场随时可能因 风吹草动而大幅回撤。国内外交易所近期上调保证金比例，正是试图为市场降温的明确信号。 本轮回撤的直接导火索，是美联储主席更迭引发的政策预期恐慌。上周五凯文·沃什被正式提名为下一 任美联储主席，尽管其政策主张复杂（支持降息但主张大幅缩表），但市场第一时间将其标签为"偏鹰 派"。这一提名被广泛解读为美联储可能转向更具纪律性的政策路径，美联储独立性担忧大大缓和，直 接动摇了支撑前期金价狂飙的核心逻辑之一——对流动性持续泛滥和通胀失控的预期。市场担忧未 来"降息+缩表"的组合会收紧美元流动性，从而打压以美元计价的黄金。 但沃什的政策主张并非简单的"鹰派"或" ...

报告日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属继续调整 2026 年春节将迎来 9 天假期，为繁荣节日市场、丰富群众文化生活、激发假期 消费活力，日前，商务部等 9 单位发布关于印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活 动方案》的通知。《方案》紧扣年俗文化、家庭团圆、购物出行等核心需求，扩 大优质商品和服务供给，丰富多元化消费场景，激发实体商业活力。中共中央、 国务院批复同意《现代化首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035 年）》，要求建 成以首都为核心的世界一流都市圈、先行示范中国式现代化的首善之区，支撑京 津冀世界一流城市群建设。国内商品期货夜盘收盘，原油主力合约下跌 4.8%报 450 元/桶；贵金属方面，沪金主力合约下跌 3.86%报 1045 元/克，沪银主力合约 下跌 20%报 20600 元/千克。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、股指 贵金属：白银：夜盘沪银期货再度跌停。此次贵金属巨震主要受两方面因素影响： 一是因为 1 月 30 日特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统 鹰派立场，带动美元指数明显回升，市场对美联储独立性担忧有所缓解。二是此 前贵金属短期内快 ...

2026年02月03日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 552.15 | 545.35 | 548.20 | 413.70 | 410.60 | 407.05 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 630.55 | 625.00 | 625.50 | 464.05 | 455.00 | 459.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -105.15 | -103.85 | -104.40 | -78.80 | -78.20 | -77.50 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -16.00% | -16.00% | -16.00% | -16.00% | -16.00% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the stock market, particularly in resource-related sectors, and highlights the ongoing global resource cycle, with a focus on investment opportunities and market dynamics [1]. Equity Market Summary - A-shares experienced a decline in prices but an increase in trading volume, with average daily trading exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Resource sectors such as oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture led the market, indicating a broad revaluation of physical assets [1]. - The CSI Value Index rose by 1.01%, while the CSI Growth Index fell by 0.59%. The Hang Seng Index outperformed A-shares with a 2.38% increase [1]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic until the Spring Festival, with rapid thematic rotations. Long-term investment strategies focusing on resource competition and technological self-reliance are recommended [4]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market remained stable, with the central bank supporting liquidity. Short-term bonds showed little volatility, while long-term bonds were relatively weaker. The low interest rate environment is expected to persist, but increased market speculation and volatility are anticipated [5]. Commodity Market Summary - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, reaching historical highs before a technical correction. The volatility was driven by geopolitical risks and a strengthening dollar due to potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6]. - The South China Commodity Index rose by 2.60%, with notable increases in precious metals and energy sectors, while non-ferrous metals and black commodities saw declines [35]. Overseas Market Summary - The US stock market showed overall gains, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, aligning with market expectations, while the dollar weakened significantly due to political statements [2]. - The AI industry trend remains strong, with a focus on productivity and revenue growth, while traditional cycles are being monitored for recovery [7].

此轮跌势的直接导火索，源于美国总统特朗普对美联储人事的"鹰派"提名。上周五特朗普宣布，提名前 美联储理事凯文.沃什接替鲍威尔出任下一届美联储主席(任期2026年5月开启)。由于沃什素以鹰派立场 著称，其提名被市场解读为美联储未来政策可能转向更紧缩的方向——这一预期直接挫败了投资者 对"进一步降息"的押注。受此推动，美元指数自低位大幅反弹，前期积累大量多头的黄金市场随即触发 获利了结潮，成为金价下行的核心推力。 除货币政策预期生变外，地缘局势的阶段性缓和进一步削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。最新消息显示，美国 方面已释放与伊朗谈判的积极信号，伊朗外长回应称双方接触"取得成效"，并认为达成公平协议"存在 可能"，甚至有望在短期内落地。与此同时，乌克兰总统泽连斯基也表示准备就相关议题展开"实质 性"讨论，下一届三方会议计划于2月4-5日在阿布扎比举行。地缘紧张氛围的降温，使得黄金作为"避险 锚"的配置需求短期回落。 不过，黄金市场的深层支撑逻辑尚未完全瓦解。一方面，地缘局势的不确定性仍未彻底消除——中东局 势的复杂性、俄乌问题的长期化特征，均可能随时引发新的避险情绪升温;另一方面，全球"去美元 化"浪潮持续推进，各国央行对 ...

2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 19 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.18%报 112.060 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.03%报 108.250 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 105.860 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.390 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 2 日以固定利率、数量 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have dropped to a low of $4,400, and silver to $71.3, effectively erasing their gains for the year and returning to the upper range of the fluctuation period from October to December 2025 [1] - The market panic is primarily due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, who advocates for "balance sheet reduction" as a means to combat inflation [1] - Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's excessive money printing is the root cause of inflation, and he supports reducing regulations and increasing energy production to lower production costs [2][2] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve aggressively reduces its balance sheet, it could lead to a decline in the stock market, as evidenced by a 1.5% drop in the Nasdaq futures [3] - The dollar index has shown some rebound, but it has not returned to its high from January 19, indicating that the dollar is not strengthening significantly [5] - The recent correction in gold and silver prices is attributed to a technical adjustment after previous overextensions, rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics [7] Group 3 - The decline in risk appetite across the market has led to significant drops in various sectors, with only weaker-performing sectors like liquor and banking showing resilience [8] - There are signs of a potential stabilization in housing prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, driven by pent-up demand from families needing to buy homes for school admissions [10][15] - The rapid decrease in second-hand housing listings indicates a reduction in selling pressure, as some individuals prefer to hold onto properties for rental income rather than selling them [13][15]

近期黄金市场波动较大，您对黄金的短期和中期走势有何看法？ 黄金的长期上涨逻辑没有改变，短期内由于技术性超买出现了一定回调。根据 1978 年至今的数据，黄金在创下历史新高后单日下跌超过 5%的情况下，一周 和一个月的中位收益分别为-0.6%和-0.7%。但拉长至一年维度，收益分化明 显，例如 1979 年涨幅达 71%，而 1980 年和 2011 年分别亏损 28%和 8%。 我们认为在 2026 年的一二季度黄金依然有上行趋势，中期配置可考虑在十周 线（约 4,567 点）进行布局，如果继续下跌则可在 20 周线（约 4,292 点）进 行配置。 对于白银市场近期的剧烈波动，有什么具体原因及未来预判？ 白银近期的剧烈波动主要是由于市场操纵行为以及基本面因素。11 月份白银逼 空行情缺乏基本面支持，其上涨更多是价格驱动导致投资者跟风。国外矿商减 美国经济前景光明，受益于 AI 发展，预计将与中国形成两极化格局。短 期内，美国仍面临高债务和通胀粘性问题，政策操作空间受限。沃什的 政策立场偏中性，长期利好消费股和中小企业。 中国高端制造业发展提升企业 ROE，长期利好股市和汇率。但短期内存 在结构性风险，如垃圾 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals and Commodities - **Key Focus**: Gold prices, U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and commodity market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: Gold prices surpassed $5,500, reflecting heightened global concerns over U.S. economic and political uncertainties, prompting some countries to consider increasing gold allocations, which undermines the dollar's reserve status [1][10][11] 2. **Federal Reserve's Policy Impact**: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's potential policies may lead to interest rate cuts, but his hawkish stance on balance sheet reduction adds market uncertainty. This could trigger liquidity crises or market shocks, increasing risks [1][6][11] 3. **Investor Behavior**: The significant influx of ETF funds indicates strong retail and individual investor participation in gold, making it a liquidity and sentiment-driven asset [2][3] 4. **Geopolitical Factors**: Increased geopolitical uncertainties have driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold, although the timing of these impacts remains unpredictable [3][6] 5. **Decoupling of Fundamentals**: Traditional factors influencing gold prices, such as real interest rates, have decoupled from gold price movements, suggesting that market expectations and speculative behavior are now more significant drivers [4][5] 6. **U.S. Debt Concerns**: U.S. debt faces challenges such as high interest payment pressures and low foreign ownership, leading investors to diversify into gold. The perception of U.S. debt as a safe asset is being reevaluated [8][9] 7. **De-dollarization Process**: The de-dollarization process is gradual, with some countries selling U.S. debt and buying gold, but others continue to increase their U.S. debt holdings, indicating a complex and slow transition [9][11] 8. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The commodity market is experiencing structural supply-side shortages, influenced by macro narratives and policy changes. The nomination of Warsh may lead to a broad market downturn, but fundamental differentiation could lead to rebounds [15][16] 9. **Energy Market Opportunities**: There are marginal recovery opportunities in the energy market due to OPEC's production delays and geopolitical risks, despite current oversupply conditions [22] 10. **Copper Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to see price increases, with projections for 2026 placing prices between $11,000 and $12,000, driven by limited new capacity and demand dynamics [19] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The current situation mirrors past instances of inflation and economic turmoil, where aggressive monetary policy was required to restore confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt [12] 2. **Long-term Economic Balance**: The U.S. faces challenges in balancing low inflation, low interest rates, and maintaining dollar hegemony, with historical precedents suggesting that aggressive rate hikes may be necessary but politically challenging [13] 3. **Investment Risks**: Investors in commodities should be cautious of consensus expectations, which can lead to limited trading opportunities and increased risks if market narratives shift [23] 4. **Real Estate Market Changes**: Recent policy changes in the real estate market have positively impacted transaction volumes, but the overall market remains sensitive to inventory issues and economic conditions [24][25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, focusing on the implications for the gold market, U.S. monetary policy, and broader commodity market dynamics.

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：风云变幻的 26 年市场 260202 发言人 00:00 黄金这个行业分析的张雷，以及今天也在线的我们的经济学家蔡志鹏。我们在一月初参加的摩根斯 standing 的人民币基金的一场讨论的年会上也提出过，2026 年的宏观和市场必定毕竟会是波涛汹涌 的一年。我想上周就经历了这过山车一般的变化。 发言人 00:24 发言人 04:11 调整的越剧烈，比如说贵金属市场基本上是一个史诗级的震荡。黄金价格在 48 小时之内从接近 5600 块钱美元跌到了 4690 块钱美元，跌幅累计高达 16%。而且黄金在这段时间的波动率飙升到 44 以上， 这仅仅在 2020 年的三月全球疫情期间出现过更高的水平，创下了一个历史纪录。在这个过程中美元也 反弹了，美元指数大幅反弹了单日的 0.8%。 发言人 03:13 那么美元对日元就呈现出像去年 4 月份，美国提出关税战的解放日之后的这种过山车式的行情。在短短 一两周之内，从跌破了 150 美元，日元汇率反弹到 154 的上方。这些背后都反映了似乎它对边际流动 性预期敏感性，贵金属是最敏感的。 发言人 03:36 其次汇率市场在最后到一 ...