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宏观策略周报:二十届四中全会胜利召开,审议通过“十五五”规划建议-20251024
Yuan Da Xin Xi· 2025-10-24 11:30
Key Points - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "15th Five-Year Plan" focusing on high-quality development and technological self-reliance [10][11][12] - China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 101.50 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [15][16] - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in October, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [18][21] - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [21][22] Market Overview - Major domestic stock indices performed well, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 8.05% [26][27] - The economic operation showed multi-dimensional characteristics, with GDP growth in the third quarter rebounding to 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][15] - The real estate market is in an adjustment phase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in housing prices [2][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor chips, and robotics, which are expected to benefit from current policies promoting new productive forces [3][34] - Non-bank financial institutions, particularly brokerages, may benefit from a slow bull market [3][34] - Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to see sustained demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions [3][34] - The storage sector is anticipated to have broad prospects driven by policy support [3][34] - The machinery sector, particularly engineering machinery and heavy trucks, is expected to benefit from increased manufacturing activity following overseas interest rate cuts [3][35] - Domestic consumption is expected to be boosted, releasing residents' consumption capacity [3][36]
放量普涨,下周科技稳了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 11:16
今日股市在政策预期与科技主线的共振下表现强势,A股与港股同步上扬,科技成长板块成为市场上涨 的核心驱动力。中共中央二十届四中全会明确了"十五五"时期科技自立自强的目标,国家发改委也强调 加快建设现代化产业体系,政策红利持续释放,为市场注入了强劲信心。 在全球层面,存储芯片涨价潮持续发酵,三星与SK海力士第四季度报价上调30%,叠加AI算力需求的 显著爆发,共同推动了HBM、半导体硅片等细分领域的走强,多只相关个股涨停,市场热点高度聚焦 于科技成长方向。同时,高盛、摩根大通等国际机构纷纷唱多,反映出中长期资金对配置科技成长板块 的共识正在增强。 市场情绪明显回暖,从谨慎转向积极。科创50指数大涨4.35%,创业板指涨幅达3.57%,两市成交额放 大至1.99万亿元。涨停家数超过70家,连板梯队保持完整,反映出资金风险偏好的显著提升。港股同样 出现反弹,恒生科技指数上涨1.82%,科技板块整体表现强劲,显示出外资对中概科技股的配置意愿增 强。 从板块表现来看,分化特征较为突出。存储芯片、商业航天、CPO等科技赛道表现活跃,而冰雪旅 游、地产、油气开采等传统行业则因政策预期偏弱或季节性因素持续调整。此外,三季报业绩 ...
中央“十五五”发布会,释放八大政策信号
21世纪经济报道· 2025-10-24 11:07
作者丨周潇枭 编辑丨陈洁 党的二十大确定到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化,"十五五"时期是夯实基础、全面发力的关 键时期。 10月20日至23日,中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开,全会审议通过 了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(下文简称《建 议》),明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标,擘画了未来五年发展的宏 伟蓝图,为深入推进中国式现代化指明了前进方向。 10月24日,中共中央举行新闻发布会,介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。发布会邀请了中 央政策研究室主任江金权,中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀,国家发展 改革委党组书记、主任郑栅洁,科技部党组书记、部长阴和俊,商务部党组书记、部长王文 涛,以及国家卫生健康委党组书记、主任雷海潮出席,介绍相关情况并答记者问。 21世纪经济报道记者从这场事关"十五五"规划的发布会上,梳理出八大重要的政策信号。 (发布会现场图 21世纪经济报道记者现场拍摄) 中央财经领导小组办公室原副主任杨伟民表示,"十五五"时期,要推动经济实现质的有效提 升,就是经济增长要带来结构优化、技术进步、效率提高、 ...
历史首次!未来5年重磅主线出现!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 11:03
Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly boosted the A-share market, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors, indicating a strong government focus on technological self-reliance and modernization of the industrial system [1][3][4]. Market Performance - A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.71% to 3950 points, marking a 10-year high, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices increased by 2.02% and 3.57%, respectively [1]. - The aerospace and defense sectors, alongside AI and semiconductor industries, saw substantial gains, with the Aerospace ETF (159227) rising by 2.59% and experiencing a twofold increase in trading volume [1][3]. Sector Highlights - The defense and aerospace sectors emerged as key hotspots, with significant net inflows exceeding 4 billion yuan, particularly in the Aerospace ETF, which has seen a 183.45% increase in shares this year [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the goal of becoming a "strong aerospace nation," which is expected to drive substantial growth in the aerospace industry, with an anticipated annual growth rate exceeding 20% during this period [4][10]. Commercial Aerospace Growth - China's commercial aerospace market is projected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 20% [12]. - The country has initiated multiple large-scale satellite constellation projects, with plans for over 60,000 satellites, indicating a robust demand for rocket launches and commercial aerospace activities [10][11]. Investment Opportunities - The Aerospace ETF (159227) is highlighted as a stable investment strategy, tracking the National Aerospace Index, which has a high concentration in defense and aerospace sectors [15]. - The ETF includes major companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Aero Engine Corporation of China, which are pivotal in military and commercial aviation [15].
“芯光”照亮前路,科技自立自强——算力板块大涨点评
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 11:00
Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, driven by strong performances in the computing power sector and various ETFs related to technology and artificial intelligence [1][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.71%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.57% [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 330.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Analysis - The computing power sector saw substantial gains, with overseas and domestic computing power stocks performing strongly. Key ETFs such as the Communication ETF and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF rose over 5% [1][2]. - Specific ETFs that performed well include: - Communication ETF: +5.79% - ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF: +5.79% - Sci-Tech Chip ETF: +5.60% - Integrated Circuit ETF: +5.44% [2]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the establishment of a modern industrial system focused on the real economy [3]. - The plan aims to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, potentially creating several trillion-yuan markets [3]. Future Market Trends - The AI sector is expected to undergo a medium-scale industrial revolution, with a focus on the computing power narrative. Anticipated earnings reports from key players and upcoming product launches, such as Google's Gemini3 series, are expected to catalyze market activity [4][5]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is poised for growth, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance, especially in light of U.S. sanctions [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The computing power industry is seen as a core driver of the A-share bull market, with recommendations to invest in both overseas and domestic computing power ETFs. Notable ETFs include: - Communication ETF (515880) - ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159388) - Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) - Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) [5].
刚刚!半导体领域大消息,又一芯片龙头IPO过会
证券时报· 2025-10-24 10:49
国产GPU龙头科创板IPO过会! 10月24日,上交所上市审核委员会审议通过沐曦集成电路(上海 ) 股份有限公司(以下称"沐曦股份") 科创板IPO申请。沐曦股份作为尚未盈利的硬科技企业,后续若成功上市,将进入科创板科创成长层,成 为科创板"1+6"改革举措落地后又一典型案例。 公开资料显示,沐曦股份专注于人工智能训练推理、通用计算与图形渲染领域全栈GPU产品的研发设计, 产品均采用自主研发的GPUIP,拥有完全自主知识产权的指令集和架构。旗舰GPU曦云C500系列已进入量 产,带领公司收入从2022年的42.64万元跃升至2024年的7.43亿元,增速达4074.52%。2025年公司发布 基于国产供应链的曦云C600,构建"设计-制造-封装测试"的国产供应链闭环。 截至报告期末,沐曦股份GPU产品累计销量超过25000颗,产品相继应用部署于10余个智算集群,算力网 络覆盖国家人工智能公共算力平台、运营商智算平台和商业化智算中心。 根据招股书上会稿,沐曦股份拟募资39.04亿元,拟投向"新型高性能通用GPU研发及产业化项目""新一代 人工智能推理 GPU 研发及产业化项目"和"面向前沿领域及新兴应用场景的高 ...
中共中央新闻发布会丨《建议》明确“十五五”时期经济社会发展主要目标
Core Points - The article discusses the key objectives for China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as outlined by the Central Committee [1] - The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, advancements in self-reliant technology, and breakthroughs in comprehensive reforms [1][6] - The plan emphasizes improvements in social civilization, quality of life, progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthening national security [1][7] Summary by Categories - **High-Quality Development**: The plan aims for notable results in high-quality economic development [1] - **Technological Self-Reliance**: There is a focus on significantly enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and strength [1][6] - **Reform Breakthroughs**: The initiative seeks to achieve new breakthroughs in comprehensive deepening of reforms [1] - **Social Civilization**: The goal includes a marked improvement in the level of social civilization [1] - **Quality of Life**: Continuous enhancement of people's quality of life is a priority [1] - **Beautiful China**: The construction of a beautiful China is expected to make new significant progress [1][7] - **National Security**: The plan aims to further consolidate the national security barrier [1][7]
“十五五”释放新一轮政策信号,有哪些投资机会?
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-10-24 10:28
对于此次二十届四中全会对A股市场的影响,中国银河证券首席策略分析师杨超认为,短期来看,全会 的召开为A股市场提供新一轮的政策预期和投资线索,有望有效提振市场信心,相关板块或将获得投资 者的重点关注;中长期来看,全会勾勒的发展蓝图为A股市场行稳致远提供坚实支撑。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 2025.10.24 本文字数:2703,阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(下称 《建议》),明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标。 东吴证券首席经济学家、研究所联席所长芦哲称,"十五五"发展目标相比"十四五"更加简洁精炼,包 括:经济发展、改革开放、文化建设、生态文明、社会民生、国家治理。其中,比"十四五"新增的表述 是"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"。 近年来,中国已成为全球经济增长的主要引擎,各方面都很关注中国经济的发展前景。《建议》提出, 提升宏观经济治理效能,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 在10月24日召开的中共中央新闻发布会上,国家发展改革委党组书记、主任郑栅洁表示,将从拓展政策 空间、创新治理工具、 ...
宏观点评:二十届四中全会公报的四大亮点-20251024
Ping An Securities· 2025-10-24 10:26
Group 1: Economic Development Highlights - The focus has shifted to "centering economic construction," emphasizing expanding domestic demand and the interaction between new demand and new supply[2] - Laborers' share of total income has increased from 49.8% in 2012 to 53.6% in 2023, indicating a significant rise in income distribution[2] - The proportion of fiscal budget spending on people's livelihoods has risen from 32.6% in 2012 to 36.7% in 2024, highlighting increased investment in social welfare[2] - China's final consumption rate in 2023 was 56.8%, which is 10.5 percentage points lower than the average of middle-income countries and 19.2 percentage points lower than high-income countries, indicating potential for growth in consumption[2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - A new goal of significantly improving "self-reliance and strength in technology" has been introduced, reflecting the importance of technological innovation[2] - In 2022, 47% of researchers in the top 20% of global AI institutions were of Chinese nationality, showcasing China's talent pool in cutting-edge technology[2] - China has achieved notable successes in industries such as new energy and high-end manufacturing during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, leveraging its talent and institutional advantages[2] Group 3: Industrial and Trade Strategy - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, with China's manufacturing value added accounting for nearly 30% of the global total[3] - The global supply chain is shifting towards localization and diversification due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, presenting new opportunities for China's industrial transformation[3] - The strategy of "expanding high-level opening-up" has been elevated, aiming to counter trade protectionism and enhance China's role in global trade[3]
沐曦股份:10月24日科创板IPO申请获上交所通过
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 10:21
沐曦股份:10月24日科创板IPO申请 获上交所通过 【10月24日,沐曦股份科创板IPO申请获上交所上 市审核委员会通过】10月24日,上交所上市审核委 员会审议通过沐曦集成电路(上海)股份有限公司科创 板IPO申请。沐曦股份是尚未盈利的硬科技企业,后 续若上市,将进入科创板科创成长层,成科创 板"1+6"改革举措落地后又一典型案例。二十届 四中全会提出"加快高水平科技自立自强,引领发 展新质生产力",此导向在科创板制度优化中充分 体现。科创板针对未盈利但技术突破显著的硬科技 企业提供制度保障。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【10月24日,沐曦股份科创板IPO申请获上交所上市审核委员会通过】10月24日,上交所上市审核委员 会审议通过沐曦集成电路(上海)股份有限公司科创板IPO申请。沐曦股份是尚未盈利的硬科技企业,后 续若上市,将进入科创板科创成长层,成科创板"1+6"改革举措落地后又一典型案例。 二十届四中全会 提出"加快高水平科技自立自强,引领发展新质生产力",此导向在科创板制度优化中充分体现。科创板 针对未盈利但技术突破显著的硬科技企业提供制度保障。 本文由 AI算法 ...