1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on December 29, 2025, and the trends of the main (continuous) contracts in December 2025. It also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2][5]. - The report analyzes the macro - information, including national policies, economic data, and international events, and their potential impacts on the futures market [7]. - It elaborates on the price trends and influencing factors of precious metals, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as other commodities like crude oil, copper, and aluminum [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The 19th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a decision on convening the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress and the agenda. It also passed the revised Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [7]. - The 2026 National Two Sessions' convening time is determined. The 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 4, 2026, and the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5, 2026 [8]. - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [9]. - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed ten key tasks for 2026, including curbing low - price and low - quality competition, supporting AI research, and promoting the development of new businesses [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2025, the industrial economy advanced steadily, with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year [9]. - The National Financial Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, with an expansion of fiscal expenditure and optimization of government bond tools [10]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", indicating that relevant departments will improve the institutional environment for long - term investment in the A - share market and promote the improvement of listed companies' quality [11]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects and seed enterprises in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, etc. [11]. - This year, the global M&A transaction volume exceeded $4 trillion, reaching $4.5 trillion, the second - highest level in history [11]. - A new convention on global trade rules, the "United Nations Convention on Negotiable Transport Documents", was passed at the 80th United Nations General Assembly [12]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - Global major economies' monetary policies are turning loose, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and central banks are strengthening capital flow supervision, which enhances the institutional attractiveness of precious metals. On December 26, international gold and silver prices reached new highs [13]. - The reasons for the recent rise in precious metal prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and low market liquidity. Silver's performance is more remarkable, driven by speculative capital inflows and supply mismatches [14]. - CME Group will comprehensively increase the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium, and other metal futures after the close on December 29 [14]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the "one - year silver swap spread" dropping to - 7.18%, indicating an extreme shortage of spot silver [15]. - On December 26, the prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose collectively, with many varieties reaching new highs. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded to control market risks [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit ranges and trading margin standards of platinum and palladium futures contracts during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the main contracts of stock index futures, such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603, showed a trend of opening high, rising, then falling back and oscillating upward [16][17][18]. - It is expected that on December 29, stock index futures will likely show a strong - biased oscillation. For example, IF2603 has resistance levels at 4,667 and 4,691 points and support levels at 4,625 and 4,611 points [24]. - In December 2025, the main (continuous) contracts of stock index futures are expected to show a strong - biased or strong - biased oscillation trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On December 26, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward. The 30 - year main contract also rose [44]. - It is expected that on December 29, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, will likely show a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.36 and 108.43 yuan and support levels at 108.21 and 108.17 yuan [46]. - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward on December 26. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29, with resistance levels at 113.2 and 113.6 yuan and support levels at 112.4 and 112.1 yuan [48][50]. 3.3.3 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of gold futures, AU2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [50][52][51]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of silver futures, AG2602, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [59][64][63]. - **Platinum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of platinum futures, PT2606, opened with a gap up, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [67]. - **Palladium Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of palladium futures, PD2606, opened with a large gap up, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [74]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of copper futures, CU2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [77][79]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of aluminum futures, AL2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [85]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of alumina futures, AO2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased wide - range oscillation [90]. - **Nickel Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of nickel futures, NI2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation after an initial decline [95]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of tin futures, SN2602, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [98]. 3.3.5 Other Commodity Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of polysilicon futures, PS2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated weakly downward. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, LC2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [106][107]. - **Rebar Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of rebar futures, RB2605, opened slightly higher, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [112]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures, HC2605, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated slightly upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [117]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of iron ore futures, I2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [119]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of coking coal futures, JM2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased wide - range oscillation [123]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of glass futures, FG605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [127]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of soda ash futures, SA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [133]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of crude oil futures, SC2602, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [137]. - **PTA Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PTA futures, TA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [143][144]. - **PX Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PX futures, PX603, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [146]. - **PVC Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PVC futures, V2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [149].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Jinma Amusement has achieved significant performance growth through technological breakthroughs and a comprehensive industry chain layout, covering 13 categories of large amusement facilities and 8 series of virtual immersive projects, with exports to nearly 50 countries [1][2][14] - The amusement equipment industry in China is undergoing structural upgrades driven by policy support and market demand, with the global theme park market expected to reach USD 55.9 billion in 2024, growing by 8.21% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery trend [2][14] - Jinma Amusement is positioned as a benchmark enterprise in the industry, holding over 240 authorized patents and participating in the formulation of 26 industry standards, while continuously enhancing its R&D capabilities and accelerating the application of AI and robotics in the cultural tourism sector [2][14] Group 2 - The company has a broad customer network, deeply binding with leading domestic theme park groups and entering high-end markets in Europe and the "Belt and Road" emerging markets, with new orders expected to grow by over 40% year-on-year in 2024 [3][14] - Jinma Amusement's strategic investment in Shanghai Matrix Super Intelligence aims to promote the implementation of cultural tourism robotics, establishing a joint venture to create a digital service ecosystem [3][14] - The report projects Jinma Amusement's net profit attributable to shareholders to be CNY 1.09 billion, CNY 2.07 billion, and CNY 3.46 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 83, 44, and 26 times, respectively, and assigns a target price of CNY 81.16, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current stock price [3][14]

Group 1 - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched with three regional sub-funds registered in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy storage [1][5] - The fund has a lifespan of 20 years and aims to invest in seed and early-stage companies, while also supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in their early to mid-stages, fostering original and disruptive technological innovations [1] - The initial investment targets are startups valued below 500 million RMB, with individual investments not exceeding 50 million RMB [1] Group 2 - The fund is structured in a three-tier system: "fund company - regional fund - sub-fund," with a total fiscal contribution of 100 billion RMB at the national level, aiming to leverage social capital to mobilize a trillion-scale funding [5] - The first three regional funds have signed investment intentions with 49 sub-funds and 27 direct investment projects, with expectations to complete a batch of key sub-fund and direct investment projects soon [5] - The guidance fund plans to establish over 600 sub-funds in the three regions to support the development of emerging and future industries [5]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.14%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,600.31 billion yuan [1][7]. - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel led the gains, while electronics, light industry manufacturing, and telecommunications lagged behind. Concept sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, zinc, and lead also saw gains, while sectors like new technology stocks and photolithography experienced declines [1][7]. Important News - The National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 27 to 28, emphasizing the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Key tasks include supporting domestic demand, enhancing financial collaboration, and promoting green transformation [2][8]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund officially commenced operations on December 26. This fund aims to focus on early-stage investments in hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs [3][9].

Core Insights - Quantum technology is emerging as a pivotal force in the global tech landscape, with significant advancements made in 2025, including breakthroughs in quantum computing and communication [1][2][3] - The potential of quantum mechanics is vast, challenging traditional logic and offering revolutionary solutions to complex problems across various fields [2][3] Group 1: Quantum Technology Advancements - The "Zuchongzhi No. 3" developed by the University of Science and Technology of China set a world record for the superiority of superconducting quantum computing systems [1] - Google's "Quantum Echo" experiment achieved speeds 13,000 times faster than classical supercomputers for specific tasks, influencing global quantum computing research [1] Group 2: Integration of Quantum Mechanics in Daily Life - Quantum mechanics underpins essential technologies such as semiconductors in smartphones and magnetic resonance imaging in hospitals, indicating its deep integration into everyday life [2] - The maturation of quantum computing, communication, and sensing is expected to revolutionize information processing and world transformation [2] Group 3: National Strategies and Investments - Multiple countries have elevated quantum research to a national strategic level, with the U.S. enacting the National Quantum Initiative Act and investing heavily in quantum research [3] - The European Union has launched a significant ten-year "Quantum Flagship Program," while other nations like Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia have developed their own quantum technology blueprints [3] Group 4: Future Implications of Quantum Technology - Quantum technology is seen as a key to addressing global challenges such as energy crises and information security, fostering international collaboration [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a cross-year rally, driven by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and materials [9][10][11] - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals leading, while new sectors like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [1] - The market consensus is shifting towards sectors representing competition in next-generation infrastructure between China and the US, with a focus on manufacturing and pricing power in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, with a preference for sectors with low concentration but rising attention and long-term ROE potential, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The outlook for the RMB is positive, with expectations of appreciation driven by improved domestic conditions and external factors, which could lead to significant capital inflows and asset revaluation [4][5] - The spring market is expected to benefit from favorable conditions, including liquidity support and upcoming policy events, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors [3][10][12] Group 3 - The investment focus is on sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation, such as those with high import material dependency and those that can leverage increased domestic purchasing power [5] - The market is characterized by a structural rotation, with a focus on technology themes and sectors like commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and robotics [12][14] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by strong institutional buying and favorable policy expectations [11][13][14]

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 930 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on December 26, resulting in a net injection of 368 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 562 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] - A total of 622.7 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the week from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, with significant amounts maturing on specific days [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintains a stable and slightly loose funding condition, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate slightly decreasing and remaining below 1.26%, while the D R007 increased by about 4 basis points due to year-end factors [3] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 3.66% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, unchanged from the previous day [6] Government Bonds and Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.36%, the 10-year by 0.10%, the 5-year by 0.05%, and the 2-year by 0.03% [10] Fiscal Policy Developments - The national fiscal work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending, optimizing government bond tools, and enhancing the effectiveness of transfer payment funds [11] - A new guideline was issued to strengthen the role of government financing guarantee systems in supporting employment and entrepreneurship, particularly for labor-intensive small and micro enterprises [11] Financial Sector Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of financial institutions in China reached 531.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with the banking sector's assets at 474.31 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% [11] Investment Fund Initiatives - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been officially launched, with regional funds established in key areas to attract diverse investments and support innovative enterprises in strategic emerging industries [12] Global Economic Insights - Japan's government approved a preliminary budget for FY 2026, with total general account expenditures reaching 122.3092 trillion yen, marking a historical high due to rising costs and increased tax revenues [14]

Core Insights - The report by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) highlights that the next five to ten years will be a critical period for competition in quantum information technology, application transformation, and industrial cultivation [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The average annual growth rate of quantum enterprises has been approximately 60 over the past five years, with over 800 global quantum information-related companies, of which about 50% are quantum computing firms [1] - The distribution of quantum enterprises is as follows: over 230 in the EU (29%), over 210 in the US (26%), and around 140 in China (17%) [1] - Investment and financing in the quantum information sector are expected to surge in 2025, with notable financing events in the first half of the year, including several companies securing millions in funding [1] Group 2: Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is at a critical stage of scientific research and prototype development, with multiple technological routes such as superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, photonic, silicon semiconductor, and topological methods being pursued [2] - Quantum error correction is essential for transitioning quantum computing from laboratory settings to real-world applications, and quantum computing cloud platforms are vital for commercial viability [2] - The current phase of quantum computing is characterized by significant scientific breakthroughs but still early in engineering applications, necessitating a multi-dimensional perspective on technological progress and application prospects [2] Group 3: Quantum Communication - The quantum communication sector is experiencing rapid development in products that enhance quality and reduce costs, with significant contributions from telecom operators and industry-specific networks [3] - Challenges remain in the promotion and application of quantum secure communication, including the need for improved engineering levels, product quality, and increased competition in the post-quantum cryptography (PQC) industry [3] - The rise of quantum computing poses systemic threats to existing public key cryptography systems, leading to a global consensus on accelerating the development of PQC algorithms and standards [3] Group 4: Quantum Precision Measurement - The quantum precision measurement field is witnessing accelerated application and has broad industrial prospects, particularly in defense, aerospace, resource exploration, and biomedical sectors [4] - The quantum precision measurement industry chain is taking shape, with nearly 150 related companies globally, but large-scale commercialization faces challenges such as technology maturity and market acceptance [4] - The integration of AI with quantum precision measurement is emerging as a new focus, enhancing data processing capabilities and expanding application ranges [4]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of technology and industry remains a challenge, and the establishment of a technology business school aims to facilitate the transition of scientific research results from "shelves" to "market" [2][4][5]. Group 1: Challenges in Technology-Industry Integration - Historical trends indicate that technology has been a crucial driver for industrial upgrades, contributing nearly 80% to economic development [3]. - Despite significant advancements in China's technology sector, challenges persist in the integration of technological innovations into industrial applications, often requiring substantial capital investment and a multi-disciplinary approach [4][5]. Group 2: Establishment of Technology Business School - The China University of Science and Technology established a technology business school in collaboration with Anhui Province and Hefei City to cultivate "five-understanding" talents who are knowledgeable in technology, industry, capital, market, and management [5][6]. - The school integrates resources from various departments, leveraging a strong alumni network and research foundation to create a systematic talent training framework [6]. Group 3: Achievements and Impact - The technology business school has supported 210 projects, resulting in the development of 249 prototypes and the establishment of 9 companies, generating over 6 million yuan in sales and securing significant investment intentions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of technology and industry remains a challenge, requiring financial support and comprehensive empowerment to transition scientific achievements from laboratories to the market [1][3]. Group 1: Technology and Industry Integration Challenges - Historical trends indicate that technology has been a crucial driver of industrial upgrades, contributing nearly 80% to economic development [2]. - Despite significant advancements in China's technology sector, the difficulty of integrating technology with industry persists, often requiring substantial capital investment and a multidisciplinary approach [3]. Group 2: Establishment of the Technology Business School - The University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) established the Technology Business School to cultivate "five understandings" talents—those who understand technology, industry, capital, market, and management [4]. - The school aims to promote the deep integration of innovation chains, industrial chains, capital chains, and talent chains to enhance the efficient transformation of scientific achievements [4]. Group 3: Talent Development and Resources - The Technology Business School integrates resources from various departments, creating a systematic and professional talent training framework targeting both students and industry professionals [5]. - The faculty includes both leading scientists and experienced entrepreneurs, leveraging a strong alumni network to support talent development and the transformation of research outcomes [5]. Group 4: Achievements and Impact - The Technology Business School has funded 210 projects, resulting in the development of 249 prototypes and the establishment of 9 companies, generating over 6 million yuan in sales and securing significant investment intentions [6].