在 2025 年贵金属市场的火热行情中，白银不再是黄金的 "陪衬"，凭借凌厉的涨势成功逆袭，不仅接连刷新国际、国内多项价格纪录，更以超 95% 的年内累 计涨幅大幅跑赢黄金，稳稳占据贵金属 "领涨王" 宝座。Wind 数据显示，国际市场上，COMEX 白银、伦敦现货白银已分别创下 57.245 美元 / 盎司、56.533 美元 / 盎司的历史新高；国内市场同步走强，沪银期货主力连续合约突破 13000 元 / 千克大关，最高触及 13239 元 / 千克，创下上市以来的峰值表现。 图源网络 复盘全年行情，白银的牛市脉络清晰且爆发力十足。10 月 9 日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上 50 美元 / 盎司关口；涨势延续至 10 月 17 日，冲高至 54.468 美元 / 盎司后进入高位震荡阶段，期间曾一度回调至 45.513 美元 / 盎司。11 月起，白银重拾上涨动能，从 48 美元 / 盎司一线震荡攀升， 再度突破 50 美元关口并触及 54.394 美元，经过短暂整理后，于 11 月 28 日迎来关键突破，当日最大涨幅超 6%，成功站上 56 美元 / 盎司整数关口，触及 56.533 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the standout performer in the precious metals market, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and establishing itself as the "leader" among precious metals [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: a surge in investment in precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold, and strong industrial demand amid declining physical supply [4][5]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market down approximately 75% from its peak in 2019 [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, narrowing to 117.7 million ounces in 2025 [5]. - Global silver supply is expected to reach 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, reflecting a modest growth of 1.73% from 2023, primarily driven by mining output [5]. Future Price Support - Despite a narrowing supply-demand gap, the core supply tightness remains, providing solid support for silver prices. This is due to constraints in supply growth and persistent industrial demand [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has experienced significant weekly outflows in silver inventory, indicating that any supply-demand disturbances could amplify price impacts [6]. Long-term Projections - The long-term outlook for silver prices suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend over the next few years, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, declining real interest rates, and a recovery in industrial demand [7]. - However, caution is advised regarding short-term price corrections, influenced by factors such as improved liquidity in the London market and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has emerged as a standout performer in the precious metals sector, achieving over 95% growth this year, significantly outperforming gold and setting multiple historical price records [1][3]. Price Performance - COMEX silver and London spot silver have reached historical highs of $57.245 per ounce and $56.533 per ounce, respectively [1]. - In the domestic market, the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed 13,000 yuan per kilogram, peaking at 13,239 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Market Dynamics - The bullish trend in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a significant influx of private investor funds into precious metal ETFs following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and a perceived valuation gap between silver and gold [4]. - Global silver inventories have dropped to near ten-year lows, with free-flowing silver in the London market decreasing by approximately 75% from its peak in 2019, while demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to rise [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The silver market has faced a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 148.9 million ounces in 2024, expected to narrow to 117.7 million ounces in 2025, but the overall shortage trend remains unchanged [5]. - Global silver supply is anticipated to grow only modestly, with a forecast of 1.73% increase to 1.015 billion ounces in 2024, primarily due to constraints in mining output and declining ore grades [5][6]. Long-term Projections - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to provide solid support for silver prices, despite a narrowing of the deficit, as any supply disruptions could significantly impact prices due to low inventory levels [6]. - The medium to long-term outlook for silver prices remains positive, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, a potential weakening of the dollar, and a recovery in industrial demand [7].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251130 12 月 FOMC 前瞻："不降息+鸽派发布会" or"降息+鹰派发布会" ◼ 12 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息仍有变数，关注决议投票结构及点阵图指引。 10 月 FOMC 会议后，市场对 12 月的降息预期经历了"过山车"式的大 幅波动。本月前半，多位美联储官员的鹰派发言及 10 月 FOMC 会议纪 要令 12 月降息概率预期一度跌至 29.3%。但随着就业结构不佳及失业 率走高的 9 月非农数据发布，叠加美股大跌后纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及 其他美联储官员对降息的鸽派言论，12 月降息概率预期再度回暖至 83%。当前 FOMC 票委中公开表态支持 12 月暂停降息的共有 5 人，分 别为 Collins、Goolsbee、Musalem 和 Schmid 四位地方联储主席与理事 Barr。而支持降息的共有 4 人，分别为 Bowman、Waller、Miran 和 Williams 均为特朗普提名的理事与有永久投票权的纽约联储主席，其中 Miran 依 旧表态支持降息 50bps。由于美联储即将进入 12 月 FOMC 会议前的静 默期，因此 12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and central bank purchases, leading to widespread public interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,100 per ounce, marking a nearly 58% increase within a year [1]. - In 2024, international gold prices set 40 historical highs, indicating a rare and robust bull market not seen in many years [1][3]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with estimates from major financial institutions indicating potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has attracted funds to gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3][9]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating strong institutional support for gold [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Current gold prices are at a high level, with fluctuations observed, such as a recent drop from $4,150 to $4,090 within two days, suggesting potential volatility for investors [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that after rapid price increases, a correction phase typically follows, which may present buying opportunities for investors [5][10]. - The domestic market shows a divergence in pricing, with brand gold jewelry often priced 20% to 25% higher than international market rates, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering investment-grade gold products like ETFs instead of high-premium jewelry [6][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer demand for gold jewelry in China has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating that high prices may be deterring purchases [8]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential short-term volatility and to consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market entry at high prices [8][11]. - The long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong, despite potential challenges from high prices and fluctuating dollar strength [9][13].

白银进入加速冲顶阶段 贵金属周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 宏观经济数据 02 市场回顾 05 贵金属价差 03 利率与流动性 06 贵金属库存 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度总结 贵金属重点数据概览 | | | 单位 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-24 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 近一年分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX行情区间: | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-20 | | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | 美元/盎司 | 4256 40 . | 4076 70 . | 上 涨 | 4 41% . | 6 45% . | 97 60% . | | | 成交量MA5 | 万手 | 21 05 . | 25 76 . | 下 跌 ...

11月26日公布的数据显示，美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数从前值22.2万人略降至21.6万人。这反 映出美国就业市场并未出现严重恶化的状况。 不过，前期公布的最新美国失业率较前值略有上升。这反映出当前美国就业市场的不景气迹象。 近期美联储官员的讲话也反映出美联储重要官员在货币政策方面的严重分歧。不过，从近期市场对于美 联储态度的分析看，在12月的议息会议上美联储继续降息25个基点的可能性还是比较大的。 然而，未来美联储的货币政策走向存在着很大的不确定性，美国经济的走向也存在着很大的不确定性。 这使得美国资本市场处于一种迷茫和焦灼状态。 笔者认为，美国经济在不确定性中蕴含着巨大的风险，美国经济的前景不是一片光明，而是面临着风雨 雷暴，投资者需要持更加谨慎的态度。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息，请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 就业是美联储斟酌货币政策的重要的依据。另一方面，美联储还需要考量当前经济的通货膨胀状况。如 今，美联储面临着比较尴尬的情况，一方面美国就业市场出现疲软迹象，另一方面美国经济 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，因其在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，且今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] -铝土矿预计价格维持弱势震荡，虽北方地区国产矿供应偏紧，但铝土矿绝对库存仍处高位，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿偏低[4] -铝价预计短期高位震荡，宏观多空情绪交织，基本面对海外供应收紧有预期，国内淡季来临消费延后兑现，库存走势反复且上方有压力[5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材方面 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右[3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝土矿方面 -北方地区国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，因接受环保督察开采未恢复，但铝土矿绝对库存高位，供应整体宽松，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿低[4] 铝价方面 -本周国内铝加工龙头企业周度开工率环比增0.3%至62.3%，铝型材等板块开工有好转[4] -周度铝水比例连续三周回落，铝锭供应压力略增，但铝价高位回落使近一周国内铝锭和铝棒出库量环比分别增20%和13%，带动铝锭库存降至60万吨以下[4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下跌1.7万吨，较上周四下跌2.5万吨[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main theme. The medium - to long - term approach for the index is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is currently in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metal prices are expected to oscillate. Some metals have strong price support due to supply - demand relationships, while others may face downward pressure due to factors such as over - supply or weak demand [12][14][16]. - The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand later [33]. - The prices of most energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate. Some products may have short - term upward or downward trends due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost fluctuations [54][55]. - The prices of most agricultural products are expected to oscillate. Some products may face downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term upward potential due to factors such as production reduction expectations [73][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: There are over 150 humanoid robot enterprises in China, and the NDRC encourages the development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy technologies. OPEC+ may reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. JPMorgan Chase has upgraded the rating of A - shares to "overweight" [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After recent declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. The long - term approach is to go long on dips, with technology growth as the main theme [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had positive changes. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The NDRC has arranged special treasury bonds for "two major" construction projects. The central bank conducted a net injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In October, the economic data on both the supply and demand sides were weak. The growth rate of social financing may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank is maintaining an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and COMEX gold and silver prices also had certain trends. The market is mainly concerned about the Fed's subsequent personnel changes and monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is 86.9% [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and the RMB has slightly depreciated. LME copper prices have declined, and domestic copper inventories have decreased. The import loss of domestic copper has widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The probability of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is high, but there are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have corrected. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have decreased, and LME aluminum inventories have also decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and the price support is strong. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The price may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories have certain trends, and the import loss of zinc ingots is relatively large [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore imports declined significantly in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. However, it is expected to loosen marginally after stockpiling. The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME lead inventories have certain trends, and the import profit of lead ingots is relatively small [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the export of lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to decline at a slower pace in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron have certain trends, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is expected to increase [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The inventory has increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2605 contract also declined [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has declined, and inventory has decreased. There are differences in the market's expectations for next year's demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 91,200 - 99,600 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The price of overseas ore has declined, and the inventory of futures has decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting industry has an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract declined. The prices of spot and raw materials remained stable, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market price is stable, and the sales of 300 - series stainless steel are relatively good. However, the consumption in related fields is weak, and the inventory removal speed is slow. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the inventory in factories increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The prices of spot rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously removed. The production of hot - rolled coils has increased, and the inventory removal is slow. The export of steel to South Korea may be affected. Steel prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The price of spot iron ore and the basis have certain trends [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the price is expected to oscillate. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline in the short term [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is increasing, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand for glass is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply of soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The prices of spot manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon also decreased [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The risk appetite of the market has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have declined. However, the expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial - silicon futures rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of polysilicon futures declined, and the inventory increased [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of industrial silicon is declining, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate. The production of polysilicon is declining, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's rubber - producing areas is a positive factor, but the subsequent rainfall has decreased. The inventory of exchange - traded RU is low [48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. It is recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures rose. The US EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and some refined oils has increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the supply of OPEC has not increased significantly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot methanol also increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iran's plant shutdown have been realized, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate after the positive factors are realized [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot urea also increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of urea is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is relatively high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure - benzene futures remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The price of styrene futures declined, and the basis decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures rose, and the basis decreased. The cost of PVC remained stable, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of ethylene glycol remained unchanged [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation may slow down. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PTA decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short term. The processing fee of PTA has limited upward space, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PX increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load of PX remains high, and the inventory is difficult to continuously remove. The valuation of PX is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PE decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It is recommended to short the LL - 1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP futures rose, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PP decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally oscillating. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported after the supply - over - supply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The market demand is increasing slowly, and the supply of hogs is abundant [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The theoretical supply of hogs is still large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse - spread trading [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg - price futures have rebounded in advance, but the spot price has not followed up as expected. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct reverse - spread trading in the near - term and far - term contracts, and short on rallies in the medium term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean market was closed due to a holiday. The domestic soybean - meal price was stable, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global supply of soybeans has decreased, and the domestic soybean inventory is at a high level. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the production has increased. The domestic oil price rebounded [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The over - supply of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [79][80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [82]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The downstream spinning - mill operating rate decreased, and the global cotton production increased [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the market has digested the negative impact of high yields. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [84].