Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain adequate reserve levels[7] - The decision to lower rates was supported by signs of a weakening labor market, with private sector employment unexpectedly decreasing by 32,000 in November, the largest drop since March 2023[6] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one rate cut next year, with inflation projected to slow to around 2.4% by year-end[3] - GDP growth forecasts were raised, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year, while unemployment rate expectations were slightly lowered by 0.1 percentage points for 2027[3] - Core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 2.3% in the first half of 2026, influenced by high tariffs and other economic factors[10] Group 3: Internal Disagreements - There were notable dissenting votes during the rate decision, with three members opposing the cut, reflecting internal divisions on inflation and employment risks[2] - The dot plot revealed significant divergence among committee members regarding future rate paths, indicating ongoing disagreements within the Fed[9] - The Fed's statement included new language suggesting a higher threshold for future rate cuts, indicating a cautious approach moving forward[9]

贵金属：银价进入加速上涨阶段，谨防价格剧烈波动风险 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-12-11 国际银价在新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态明确鸽派后出现强势上涨，白银市场交易 的核心逻辑仍是联储主席换届完成后联储独立性所受到的冲击以及后续可能存在的激进降息 操作，但当前白银价格已经进入加速上涨阶段，投资者需关注美联储 12 月议息会议预期落地 后所存在的价格剧烈波动风险。 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属研究 一、新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态鸽派 11 月，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特明确表示"若被提名为美联储主席，将非常乐 意进行任职"，而随后特朗普表示他知道将会选择谁成为美联储主席，且很快将会宣布这一决 定。而在十二月初，特朗普在内阁会议中再度暗示哈塞特将成为新任联储主席，特朗普表示他 将在明年年初宣布联储主席人选，但他随后在介绍哈塞特时表示，"潜在的美联储主席就在这 里"，这几乎确定了哈塞特将被提名为新任联储主席。哈塞特的联储主席任命将会使得特朗普 的意图被完整带入美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's third rate cut this year has influenced the commodity futures market. Different commodities have different market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and inventory fluctuations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: After the Fed's third rate cut this year, precious metal prices first declined and then rose, with the silver price approaching $62 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed announced the third rate cut this year and the purchase of short - term bonds. Powell's speech was considered dovish, and there were internal voting differences in the FOMC. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in different markets showed different changes [1]. - Trading strategy: As the Fed cut rates as expected, gold prices regained strength, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but domestic inventories have been accumulating for many days, so it is recommended to take profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Silver - Market trends are affected by the same Fed rate - cut event. The overseas market is tight, while domestic inventories have been increasing [1]. - The trading strategy is related to the inventory situation, suggesting taking profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved due to discussions on bond extension and mortgage贴息. The CPI and PPI continued to weaken. The Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan also had an impact. The supply - side copper mine shortage will be difficult to change in the medium term, and the demand - side showed certain trading prices [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, and there were corresponding price differences and LME prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product start - up rate declined slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: Both long and short positions decreased, and the aluminum price retreated from a high level. However, the favorable macro - environment and low inventory provided support, so it is expected that the price will maintain a range - bound oscillation [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous trading day, and there was a corresponding price difference [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants started maintenance, and the operating capacity decreased, but there was no large - scale production reduction. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: Before large - scale production reduction occurs, the spot price will continue to decline under pressure. Be cautious of technical rebounds in the futures market due to the concentrated stop - profit of short positions [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price decreased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventories also increased. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries were promoting anti - involution, and the production and start - up rates of related industries showed certain trends [3]. - Trading strategy: The current supply - demand is stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. There may be further production cuts in the southwest, and environmental protection disturbances need to be monitored in the northwest. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by news, the LC2605 contract price increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased. The supply showed certain production trends, and the demand of related industries such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was expected to change. The inventory situation showed a trend of destocking, but the shortage degree was narrowing [3]. - Trading strategy: Currently, there is a situation of strong reality and weak seasonal expectations. The short - term upward price drive is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory data and downstream inventory trends. It is recommended to consider selling call options with high implied volatility or shorting on rallies [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it rushed up and then oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price increased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was stable, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells declined, and the downstream production plan in December decreased significantly compared to the previous month. The new photovoltaic installation in October had certain changes, and the policy implementation was expected to put pressure on the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation [3]. - Trading strategy: After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new delivery brands on Friday, it is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range. It is necessary to focus on the new brands' production capacity, supply stability, and product quality to judge their long - term impact on the market [3]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved, the CPI and PPI continued to weaken, and the Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan had an impact. The supply - side tin mine shortage continued, and the demand - side showed certain premium and inventory trends. There was also new information about the war in the Congo tin - producing area [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3108 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material apparent demand decreased in different statistical calibers, and the production also decreased. The steel supply - demand was weak, and there was significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures had a large discount and low valuation, while hot - rolled coil futures' discount was basically flat and the valuation was high. Steel mills continued to lose money, and production may continue to decline slightly [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long on the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3080 - 3130 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 767 yuan per ton, up 8.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased, and the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore supply - demand was weak, and the iron water production decreased significantly. The fourth - round coke price increase failed, and the first - round price cut was implemented and the second - round was proposed. Steel mills' profits were poor, and future blast furnace production may decline steadily. The supply was in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but with a relatively low absolute level, and the valuation was moderately high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, with the I05 reference range of 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1078 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron water production decreased significantly, and steel mills' profits deteriorated. The first - round price cut was implemented, and the second - round was proposed. The inventory at each supply - side link was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a relatively high futures valuation [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1100 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was a slight near - term production reduction, and the long - term South American supply was expected to be large. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing was strong, and the export was still in a game. The global supply - demand was improving marginally but still in a loose state [8]. - Trading strategy: The US soybean price was weak, reflecting the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market was strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the medium - term situation depends on the tariff policy and production in the producing areas [8]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price was weak, and the spot price was falling rapidly [8]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The short - term procurement was concentrated in the northeast, causing logistics tension. The rising spot price intensified farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a short - term supply shortage. However, the continuous rise in corn prices increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the feed - end procurement enthusiasm would decline after continuous inventory replenishment. The short - term spot price is expected to decline gradually [8]. - Trading strategy: As the spot price weakens, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell yesterday due to a negative report [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the estimated November production in Malaysia decreased by 5% month - on - month, entering the seasonal production reduction period. On the demand side, the estimated November exports decreased by 28% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continued to accumulate, and the long - term was in the seasonal production reduction period [8]. - Trading strategy: There are no major contradictions in the short - term, with a weak seasonal production reduction and differentiation among oil varieties. It is necessary to pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price started to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US cotton planting and harvesting areas in 25/26 had certain data, and the Turkey's cotton import volume in October decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with strong buying support below. Spinning enterprises adjusted their raw material procurement strategies, planning to replenish inventory before the Chinese New Year, and the high - count yarn sales were good [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy based on the 13700 - 14000 yuan per ton range [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, the enthusiasm for culling decreased, and the capacity reduction slowed down. The market sales were average, and traders mainly purchased on a need - to - buy basis, with increasing wait - and - see sentiment and accumulating inventory. The rising vegetable price supported the egg price, and currently, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, so the egg price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the lack of major supply - demand contradictions, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. Before the Winter Solstice, there will be a concentrated slaughter in the breeding sector, with weak pig prices in the first half of the month. As the demand continues to increase later, the pig price is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume changes [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the seasonal increase in demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6530 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production facilities were put into operation, some facilities reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume is expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The PP spot price in East China was 6150 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the overall market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, in the short - term, new production facilities were still being put into operation, some facilities unexpectedly stopped, and the domestic supply gradually increased, and the supply pressure in the market increased. The export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy this year over - exploited part of the fourth - quarter demand [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the basis was weak, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will still oscillate weakly as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production facilities will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices weakened again yesterday. The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace proposal, and if a peace agreement is reached, the risk premium may be reversed, and the support for oil prices will be broken. The EIA weekly report showed that the US crude oil inventory drawdown was lower than expected, the gasoline and diesel inventories increased more than expected, and the EIA raised the US annual supply forecast by 20,000 barrels per day, indicating strong US supply resilience [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, due to US sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil production and exports in December need to be monitored, and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports also needs attention. OPEC+ plans to nominally increase production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels per day per month in December, but the actual monthly increase is expected to be less than 100,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the increased production in the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway continues to be released, and the supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rates in Europe and the US have fully recovered, but the terminal demand is still in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory is higher than the five - year average, and both water and land inventories have accumulated [10]. - Trading strategy: The probability of supply surplus is high at the end of the year and in Q1, and crude oil should still be used as a short - position allocation. It is possible to wait for a premium due to geopolitical events and then short on rallies [10]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The overseas US dollar price rose slightly, and the import window was still closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the future pure benzene supply - demand is still weak, with a large overall contradiction. The styrene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and short - term maintenance increased, with a marginal improvement in supply - demand. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises is still at a high level, the demand is in the off - season, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy over - exploited part of the future demand [10][11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory increased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the valuation was low, and the overall contradiction was still large; the styrene inventory decreased slightly, was at a normal - to - high level, the basis was stable, the supply - demand weakened with the resumption of facilities, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term, with the upside space restricted by the import window. In the medium - to - long -

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场分析 美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议声明指 出经济温和扩张，就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。 为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储主席鲍 威尔在新闻发布会上表示通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预 计2026年第一季度见顶。利率已处于中性区间上端，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。为缓解市场压力，短 期国债购买规模将在未来数月维持高位，预计2026年4月15日前完成；变相释放流动性，或被视为宽松 力度的加强。美国总统特朗普重申对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评。特朗普表示，降息幅度太小，本可以更 大一些；美联储降息幅度本可以加倍。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-10，沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克，收于956.40元/克，较前一交易日 ...

编辑臧璐制作王子轩 特朗普称，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使通货膨胀也没关系可以减缓。特朗普还称，降息幅度太 小，本可以更大。此前，特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普指责美联储 降息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。12月10日降息是美联储2025年第三次降息，也是2024年9月以来第 六次降息。 12月10日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点后，特朗普回应。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.50% and 3.75%, marking the third rate cut this year and the sixth since September 2024 [1] - Economic indicators suggest that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains high [3] - Fed Chairman Powell stated that the rate cuts aim to stabilize the labor market and help inflation return to the 2% target as tariff impacts diminish [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump criticized the Fed for the small magnitude of the rate cut, suggesting it could have been larger [5] - Trump has previously expressed concerns about the Fed's monetary policy and has threatened to remove Powell from his position, raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [7] - NEC Director Hassett indicated that there is ample room for further rate cuts, potentially supporting a 50 basis point reduction if stronger economic data emerges [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, has not shown a more hawkish stance contrary to market expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy moving forward [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Powell announced the repurchase of short-term bonds and maintained a dovish tone regarding interest rate cuts, suggesting decisions will be made based on economic data at each meeting [1] - The dot plot has shown a more dovish distribution compared to September, indicating a shift in the Fed's outlook [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcements, U.S. stocks and precious metals experienced significant gains, while the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened temporarily [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The threshold for interest rate cuts has notably increased at current rate levels, with the Fed expected to enter a period of observation in the first half of next year, leading to a slower pace of policy changes [1] - Political discussions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve are anticipated to intensify [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Precious metals futures prices have significantly increased due to expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar, with New York gold futures surpassing $4260 per ounce, up 0.57% on the day [1] - Spot gold also rose, breaking through $4230 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.53%, having touched $4220 per ounce earlier in the day, reflecting a 0.38% rise [3] - Goldman Sachs has notably revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4900 per ounce, indicating substantial upward potential [5] Group 2: Macro and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [6] - The meeting minutes revealed a divergence among 19 officials regarding the future rate cut path for 2026, with 7 opposing cuts, 4 supporting a 25 basis point cut, 4 favoring a 50 basis point cut, 2 advocating for a 75 basis point cut, 1 for a 100 basis point cut, and 1 for a 150 basis point cut [7] - Chairman Powell emphasized that "no one is assuming a rate hike as the baseline scenario," noting that current policy is at the high end of the neutral rate range, with inflation influenced by tariffs showing a slight increase, while excluding tariff factors, inflation remains around 2% [8] Group 3: Financial Futures - Following the Federal Reserve's decision, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.67% [15] - Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Qualcomm rising over 3%, Amazon and Tesla up over 1%, while Apple and Oracle saw slight gains; however, Netflix dropped over 4%, Microsoft fell over 2%, and Meta decreased over 1% [16] - Oracle's stock fell by 10% in after-hours trading due to second-quarter adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion and cloud revenue of $8 billion falling short of expectations [17] Group 4: Other Market Developments - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.64%, with stocks like Huya rising over 6% and Daqo New Energy and Hesai Technology up over 2% [19] - The cryptocurrency market also saw gains, with Bitcoin surpassing $94,000, up 1.43% on the day, and Ethereum exceeding $3,400, rising 2.77% [20][21]

当地时间10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在10日的新闻发布会上表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一政策立场 的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的目标下 降。鲍威尔还指出，美国关税政策导致通胀过高。 特朗普表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通货膨胀。特朗普 还说，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。此前美国总统特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。 United States Department of Labor 時朗普:降息幅度太小 还能更大 △美国劳工部(资料图) 10日,美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在 会后发表声明称,现有指标表明美国经济活动 一直以温和的速度扩张,今年就业增长放缓, 失业率略有上升,通胀率自年初以来有所上 升,目前仍处于较高水平。经济前景的不确定 性依然较高,近几个月就业面临的下行风险有 所增加。鉴于风险平衡变化,决定将联邦 ...

北京时间12月11日，美联储结束年内最后一次公开市场委员会会议， 以9-3的投票决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.5%-3.75%。 美联储 还宣布 启动短期国债购买计划， 以维持短期利率稳定，保持银行储备充足，并确保金融市场平稳运行。 鲍威尔称这是艰难的降息抉择，将启动观望模式，他还有哪些表态？ 对于未来的货币政策，机构如何解读？ 一图速览>> Feb Mar Jan May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Apr 2022 50 25 75 75 75 75 50 2023 25 25 25 25 2024 50 25 25 2025 25 (25 =连路后首次暂停 代表当月暂停加息 有记录来美联储利率走势 2024/09时隔四年重启宽松 1984/08 11.5% 2023/07 2001/01 5.5% 5.5% 2025/12 *图中数据为目标利率最高上限 2008/12 2020/03 0.25% 0.25% 美联储最新点阵图 点阵图显示，19位官员中 有6位预计年底利率将高于 周三宣布降息前的水平, 表明部分官员对降息持保 :: ... 留态度,或者未投票 ...