Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have retreated from historical highs, with COMEX gold futures declining for three consecutive trading days, closing at $3968.10 per ounce, approximately 9% lower than the record high set in October. Despite this pullback, gold prices have maintained a 3% increase for the month and over 50% year-to-date, indicating both volatility and resilience in the gold market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the current price adjustment coincides with a monetary policy window from the Federal Reserve, suggesting that short-term fluctuations in gold prices should not overshadow its long-term support logic [1] - Sprott's senior partner Ryan McIntyre highlights that the restructuring of the global trust system and rising sovereign risks are creating structural support for gold, particularly due to the ongoing U.S. high deficit and federal debt issues, which may continue to drive demand for asset diversification [3] - Aakash Doshi, head of metal strategy at State Street Bank, identifies a potential technical support range for gold prices between $3600 and $3650, emphasizing that structural factors such as global fiscal debt burdens and central bank gold purchases remain intact [3] Group 2: Price Projections - Doshi's probability analysis suggests that the likelihood of gold prices surpassing $5000 is significantly higher than the chance of falling to $3000, providing a new perspective for market observation [3] - Historical data indicates that after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since 2020 in September, gold experienced a brief fluctuation but subsequently rose by approximately 13% within a month, reaching a new historical high, demonstrating a multi-stage response of gold prices to monetary policy [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation - Professional institutions generally regard gold as a crucial component of investment portfolios, with risk management models indicating that the allocation of physical gold and gold ETFs typically ranges from 5% to 20% [4] - Market practices show that maintaining a stable allocation ratio through regular adjustments is a common method for institutional investors to manage risk exposure [4]

·美联储本轮宽松周期降息幅度或低于预期 ·Vanguard Europe的Shaan Raithatha在一份报告中表示，预计欧洲央行将在2025年剩余时间和2026年保持 利率不变。然而，这位资深经济学家表示，风险倾向于进一步宽松。他表示，大多数欧洲央行政策制定 者重申，欧洲央行仍处于"良好状态"，通胀前景面临的风险是"双面的"。 ·美国银行预计，日本央行将在10月会议上维持其谨慎的政策立场，但将在明年1月宣布下一次加息，因 政策制定者将权衡居高不下的通胀与脆弱的内需复苏。该行表示，预计日本央行本周将维持利率不变， 同时采取鹰派措辞，以此表明其有信心认为潜在通胀仍高于目标水平。这将是一次"鹰派"的按兵不动， 为明年初可能的加息铺路。目前的基本情景预测是，央行在2026年1月将加息25个基点，理由是工资增 长和服务业通胀逐步改善。尽管若日本央行释放更强的紧缩信号，日元可能在年内后期再度走强，但美 银指出，短期动态——包括美日利差及峰会相关的政治气氛——均支持美元持续保持韧性。 ·安联：日本央行可能会避免留下无限期维持利率的印象 ·日元期权成交量触及月内低位投资者等待日本央行给出信号 ·西太平洋银行：澳洲联储的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a second consecutive rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, reflecting a potentially worsening labor market [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][6] - There is a significant divide among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][6] Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the current economic situation [7][8] - Analysts expect the Fed to communicate increased uncertainty regarding future policy paths due to the absence of comprehensive economic indicators [8] Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent market conditions suggest a need for increased liquidity [9][12] - The Fed's decision on whether to continue reducing its balance sheet will depend on the state of bank reserves, which have recently fallen below $3 trillion [9][12] Group 5: Market Reactions - Recent large trades in the interest rate market indicate positioning for the Fed's potential announcement to end quantitative tightening, reflecting market expectations for a rate cut and a shift in policy [12][13] - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) currently stands at 4.24%, while the federal funds rate is at 4.11%, suggesting market adjustments in anticipation of the Fed's decisions [13]

Group 1 - The central bank announced the resumption of public market treasury bond trading operations, leading to a comprehensive decline in the treasury yield curve over the following two trading days [1] - The purpose of the treasury bond trading is to "enrich the monetary policy toolbox and enhance the financial function of treasury bonds," particularly during the liquidity-sensitive period from the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival [1] - The expectation of continued large purchases of short-term bonds by the central bank, alongside ongoing liquidity support measures for non-banking institutions, is expected to reinforce the certainty of short-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - The Dongcai Treasury Bond ETF (511160), as the only short-term treasury bond ETF in the market, closely tracks the CSI 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Index and is highly correlated with monetary policy operations [1] - In the context of the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading, short-term treasury bonds are expected to benefit directly, positioning the Dongcai Treasury Bond ETF (511160) for potential gains [1]

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to 94.6 in October, marking a three-month decline and the lowest level since April this year, indicating growing public concern about the economic outlook and job market [1] - A key indicator measuring consumer expectations regarding income, business, and labor market short-term outlook dropped to 71.5, the lowest since June, suggesting potential recession signals if it remains below 80 [3] - Despite a slight improvement in the perception of the current job market, the number of people finding it difficult to secure jobs has increased, highlighting structural imbalances in the employment market [3] Group 2 - Recent inflation data remains concerning, with rising gasoline prices pushing overall price levels up, while rental costs have decreased, creating an uneven economic landscape [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again this week, marking the second rate cut of the year as policymakers seek to balance inflation control and employment support [5] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, continuing a trend of weak job growth, with downward revisions in previous months indicating a slowdown influenced by prior rate hikes and trade policy uncertainties [6] Group 3 - Several large companies have announced layoffs as part of their market adjustment strategies, including Amazon planning to cut approximately 14,000 jobs, Target reducing about 1,800 positions, and Meta laying off around 600 employees [7] - These layoffs reflect companies' efforts to adapt to economic uncertainties through structural adjustments and business transformations [7] Group 4 - The stability and recovery of consumer confidence require a combination of factors, including sustained inflation moderation, robust employment market performance, and reduced policy uncertainties [9] - The upcoming months' economic data will provide clearer direction as the Federal Reserve adjusts its monetary policy and companies continue their strategic transformations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of government bond trading operations by the central bank is seen as a significant positive catalyst for the bond market, indicating improved market conditions and a supportive monetary policy environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 29, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) rose by 0.01%, marking a three-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 107.56 yuan [1]. - Over the past week, the 30-year government bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.56% [1]. - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF was 15.18 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 8.49% [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On October 27, 2025, the central bank governor announced at the Financial Street Forum that the overall bond market is performing well and that the central bank will resume open market operations for government bonds [1]. - The resumption is driven by improved bond market conditions and the need for policy coordination, signaling a supportive monetary policy stance [1]. - This operation aims to enhance the monetary environment for fiscal efforts and improve the market's pricing benchmark for government bonds [1]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Size - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera is 17.8 billion yuan [3]. - There was a net outflow of 165 million yuan from the 30-year government bond ETF, but over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 449 million yuan [3]. - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, which reflects the overall performance of the corresponding maturity government bonds [3].

（文章来源：新华财经） 策略师表示，当前市场对美联储进一步宽松的预期已较为充分定价，而欧洲央行维持2%关键利率不变 的立场符合主流判断。然而，"除非美国发布更多负面经济数据，特别是那些指向劳动力市场进一步恶 化的指标，否则欧元不太可能获得新的动能"。 裕信仅对欧元兑美元持"适度看好"立场。 新华财经北京10月29日电裕信银行（UniCredit）策略师在最新报告中指出，尽管市场普遍预期美联储将 于本周再度降息，但若欧洲央行维持利率不变，欧元兑美元亦不太可能出现显著上涨。 报告称，欧洲央行本次货币政策会议应会"相对平淡无奇"，决策层可能有意避免释放重大政策信号，直 至12月发布新一轮宏观经济预测。在此背景下，即便美欧货币政策路径出现短期分化，欧元的上行空间 仍将受限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of KfW, Dirk Schumacher, indicates that despite escalating trade tensions and a stronger euro posing external risks, they are not sufficient to impact the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision this week [1]. Economic Outlook - Trade conflicts with the U.S. remain a primary source of uncertainty, but there is currently no evidence suggesting they have triggered a severe economic recession or materially impacted the inflation trajectory [1]. - The appreciation of the euro is expected to suppress future price pressures and further weaken the competitiveness of European export companies [1]. Inflation Concerns - There are persistent concerns regarding the inflation outlook, with service sector inflation stubbornly remaining around 3%, significantly above the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, which is detrimental to the normalization of overall inflation dynamics [1]. ECB Policy Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain its key interest rate at 2% during the monetary policy meeting on October 31, aligning with recent economic data [1]. - In August, the Eurozone's overall CPI year-on-year recorded 2.1%, with core CPI at 2.3%. Although service sector inflation has decreased from a peak of 4.0% in April, it remains elevated at 3.1% [1]. Decision-Making Framework - Schumacher reiterates that unless clear signals of economic recession emerge, there is a lack of urgency among most ECB decision-makers for further rate cuts. The current policy path will continue to focus on data dependency and closely assess the transmission effects of external shocks on growth and price stability [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The steel price is running at a low level and there is a short - term rebound [4] Group 3: Summary by Content Macro - Policy - The central bank governor mentioned implementing existing monetary policies and researching new ones [4] Company Performance - As of October 28, 13 listed building materials companies announced their Q1 - Q3 2025 performance, with a total revenue of 305.292 billion yuan and a total net profit of 8.608 billion yuan [4] - 9 companies were profitable, with China National Building Material having the highest net profit of 2.96 billion yuan [4] - 6 companies including Huaxin Cement and Tapai Group saw year - on - year growth in net profit [4] - 7 companies had revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with China National Building Material ranking first with 133.443 billion yuan [4] Market Situation - The finished product prices showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, maintaining a relatively strong operation [4] - The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and environmental protection restrictions in some areas of Hebei have supported the prices [4] - Demand has changed little, and the weak real estate market restricts the price rebound space [4] Later Focus - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [4]

Market Assessment - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that US large-cap tech stocks may be forming a bubble amid the AI boom [1] - The "bubble indicator" is relatively high, with overall market performance "relatively poor" outside of AI-related stocks [1] - Market environment is "concentrated," with 80% of gains concentrated in large tech companies [1] Economic Structure - The economy exhibits a "two-part" structure, with weakness in some areas leading to rate cuts, while others show bubbles [1] - Monetary policy cannot simultaneously aid both extremes, increasing the likelihood of bubble persistence [1] Risk Assessment - The situation is similar to 1998-1999 or 1927-1928 [1] - There is significant risk, although it is unclear if it is a bubble and when it will burst [1]