两项重要数据今日出炉。 12月7日，国家外汇管理局公布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 另据中国人民银行同日公布的数据，截至11月末，我国黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，已是连续第13个月增持黄金。 | Official reserve assets | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 2025.02 2025.03 2025.04 2025.05 2025.06 | | 2025.07 | | 2025.08 | | 2025.09 | | 2025.10 | | 2025.11 | | 2025.12 | | | 项目 Item 《关完 (ZSDR 亿黄元 U.SDR 亿翼元 (ZSDR 《黄元 CZSDR 亿美元 Z.SDR 乙黄元 | CSDR | 《乙黄元 | CSDR | 乙黄元 | ZSDR | ...

国家外汇管理局表示，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数 下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上 升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 央广网北京12月7日消息（记者 宓迪）国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储 备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外储规模都处于适 度充裕状态。综合考虑各方面因素，未来外储规模有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大的背景下， 适度充裕的外储规模将为保持人民币汇率处于合理均衡水平提供重要支撑，也能成为抵御各类潜在外部 冲击的压舱石。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 刘四红）12月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储 备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价 格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总体平 稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, which led to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance in global financial asset prices [1] - China's economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves stood at 7,412 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 3,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The current spot gold price has decreased by 0.28% to $4,197 per ounce [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has entered its third upward cycle since 2019, with a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, indicating potential for further growth compared to previous cycles [3] - The rise in gold prices is supported by three attributes: monetary (challenges to the US dollar credit system), commodity (average annual growth of central bank gold purchases from 2020 to 2024 at 44%), and financial (the pricing framework of real interest rates partially failing in a high inflation environment) [3] - Key variables influencing future gold prices include geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [3] Group 4: Future Gold Demand and Price Projections - Official demand for gold is expected to replace price-sensitive consumer demand, with projections indicating a rebound to 1,053 tons per year by 2026 [4] - The normalization of inflows into gold ETFs has led to a significant upward revision of the average price target for 2026 from $4,000 per ounce to $4,450 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, reflecting an increase of $3 billion from the end of October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3 billion in November 2025, marking a 0.09% rise compared to the end of October [1] - The increase in reserves is attributed to the impact of macroeconomic data and monetary policy expectations from major economies, alongside fluctuations in asset prices [1] - The overall stability and progressive development of China's economy have provided support for maintaining a stable level of foreign exchange reserves [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】世界黄金协会日前展望2026年黄金前景认为，黄金价格大致反映了宏观经济的 共识预期，如果目前的情况持续下去，金价可能保持区间波动。但从今年的情况来看，2026年可能会继 续令人惊讶，有望从当前位置再上涨15%到30%。 另据世界黄金协会数据，黄金ETF总持有量在11月底增至3932吨，连续第六个月录得增长。其中超过 700吨是在2025年买入的，使得持仓量有望创下历来最大的年度增幅。 东吴证券近日撰文详细分析认为，11月初因通胀与就业数据延迟发布，政策预期更依赖美联储表态，部 分官员偏鸽讲话使降息概率上调，金价获得支撑；月中就业数据高于预期、美元阶段性走强，使金价自 区间上沿回落；月下旬政策口径再度转向温和，市场对 2025年12 月降息的定价进一步上行，叠加全球 风险偏好波动，金价呈现修复态势。 东吴证券判断，后续在政策预期配合下突破区间上沿并伴随成交量放大，将增强中期上行动能；若美元 指数阶段性反弹，则可能推动金价再度测试下方支撑带。 西南证券近日发布研报认为，在财政主导初期，美国的财政风险溢价主要通过黄金的极致上涨进行定 价，黄金的飙升实质上映射了隐含实际利率的深度下行。中信建投证 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, with significant increases noted in both offshore and onshore rates, attributed to a cooling US job market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rates - As of December 3, the offshore yuan broke the 7.06 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.05625, the highest since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The onshore yuan also approached 7.06, with a peak of 7.0613, marking a similar high since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0754, the highest since October 15 of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings noted that the cooling US job market has shifted the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook towards a higher probability of cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [1]. - The US dollar index fell below 100 on November 25 and has continued to decline, although fluctuations are expected in December due to upcoming GDP data releases [1]. - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank indicated that while the dollar's movements may cause some disturbances to the yuan's exchange rate, the overall impact is expected to be limited [1]. Group 3: Investment and Market Sentiment - The attractiveness of domestic assets has increased, supporting the yuan's exchange rate, with strong performance in China's A-shares attracting global capital inflows [2]. - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings anticipates a moderate appreciation of the yuan by year-end and into the next year, with "two-way fluctuations" becoming the norm [2]. - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng emphasized that China's robust growth policies will provide substantial support for the yuan's exchange rate, projecting strong economic resilience by 2026 [2].

▲ATFX图 名义PCE数据包含食品和能源等短周期剧烈波动的品种，数据稳定性较差，所以市场更看重核心PCE数据。历史数据看，美国核心PCE处在相对平稳 的波动状态：2024年5月份至今，核心PCE最大值2.989%，最小值2.615%，保持震荡态势。市场预期的9月份核心PCE数据2.9%，依旧处于区间内部， 不会改变当前的震荡状态。 ▲ATFX图 ATFX汇评：今日23:00，美国商务部将公布美国9月PCE相关数据，这份数据报告本应在10月份发布，但由于美国政府停摆，数据发布日期一再推迟， 时至今日才能最终发布。9月名义PCE年率数据看，前值为2.7%，预期值2.8%，预期微增0.1个百分点。9月核心PCE年率数据，前值为2.9%，预期值持 平。综合来看，名义和核心PCE数据均保持相对稳定，预计数据发布对美元行情的冲击较弱。 在美国核心PCE年率在2.9%附近波动时，美联储自9月份开始降息，已经连续降息两次，累计50基点。12月份的美联储利率决议也极有可能再次降息。 2.9%的通胀率处于温和通胀标准的2%～3%的上限附近，一旦货币政策过度宽松，有可能导致美国高通胀问题卷土重来，利空美元指数。 ▲ATFX图 技 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.65%，报收 64.04 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.4%，报收 13790 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 9091 手至 51.31 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14585 元/吨，较前一日上涨 15 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，数据 | | | | 显示美国就业仍有韧性，美联储降息预期小幅波动，美元指数震荡走强，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。基本面方面，近期美棉出口仍然承压，拖累美棉价格。此外关注将 | | | 棉花 | 于下周发布的 USDA12 月报。国内市场方面，郑棉期价低开，尾盘跌幅收窄。我 | 震荡 | | | 们认为宏观有利好预期、棉花需求相对稳定、年度供需压力不大是近期行情主要 | | | | 驱动因素。但需要看到的是，当前多空因素均有，供应压力仍存，若价格持续上 | | | | 行，上方还有套保压力。展望未来，短期郑棉或仍偏震荡运行为主，随着时间推 | ...