期货热点追踪 黄金3250美元支撑暗藏玄机！市场押注美联储9月出手，金银铜未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

近期，印尼盾汇率走强，截至5月20日，印尼盾对美元汇率较4月底升值1.13%。对此，印尼央行指出， 印尼盾汇率波动处于符合国内经济基本面的区间内，有助于维护经济稳定。 【导读】印尼央行宣布降息25个基点 5月21日，印尼央行如期降息25个基点。 降息25个基点至5.50% 5月21日，印尼央行发布消息，将基准利率（BI-Rate）下调25个基点至5.50%，存款便利利率下调25个 基点至4.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至6.25%。 印尼央行表示，这一决定符合2025年和2026年通胀率预测——维持在低位并控制在2.5±1%的目标范围 内，旨在根据印尼盾基本面维持汇率稳定，推动经济增长。 印尼央行表示，印尼经济增长需持续加强，以缓解美国互惠关税政策带来的全球不确定性影响。2025年 第一季度经济同比增长4.87%，低于2024年四季度的5.02%。结合一季度GDP表现及全球经济动态，印 尼央行预测今年经济增长区间为4.6%至5.4%，略低于此前预测的4.7%至5.5%。因此，需通过加强国内 需求及优化出口增长机遇等措施，进一步强化政策应对，以推动经济增长。 印尼央行称，未来将继续引导货币政策，确保通胀率 ...

近期，金融市场的风云变幻吸引着全球目光，而美联储在其中扮演着关键角色。在一系列复杂事件的交织下，美联储的政策走 向愈发引人关注。 关税政策影响难测，经济数据走势不明 美联储官员表示，当前经济数据走势尚未能全面反映关税政策的影响。6 月及 7 月的数据，难以成为评估关税政策对美国经济数 据走势影响的可靠依据。这使得美联储在制定政策时，面临更多不确定性。在这种情况下，市场对美联储 6 月 18 日利率决议产 生诸多猜测。目前，市场预测央行将联邦基金利率范围维持在 4.25 - 4.50% 的概率约为 92.3%，而降息至 4.25 - 4.00% 的可能性 约为 7.7%。 市场走势受多因素牵动，美元指数前景堪忧 周二，美元指数走势回落至 100 关口下方。近期，美元以及美国国债走势均呈回落态势，这主要是受机构下调美国信贷评级的 影响，美元价值受到冲击，美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力也大打折扣。此外，特朗普亲自出席国会减税法案，使得市场高度 聚焦美国财政政策前景。一旦出现不明朗因素，不仅可能影响近期美元指数行情走势，令其维持走弱方向，还可能引发市场投 资者对美国政府治理能力的担忧，进一步加剧市场的不稳定。 评级下调 ...

Group 1: Core Reasons for Gold Price Decline - Strengthening US Dollar and Federal Reserve Policy: The rebound of the US dollar index has decreased the attractiveness of gold, as the market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts due to the Federal Reserve's high rate expectations [1] - Increased Rate Hike Expectations: If the US April CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - Easing Geopolitical Risks: Progress in US-China trade negotiations and a reduction in concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Factors - Technical Sell-off: Gold prices breaking below key support levels (e.g., $3300/oz) have triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle of "sell more as prices drop" [5] - Profit-Taking by Bulls: Investors have chosen to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, leading to increased short-term selling pressure [6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data Impact - Positive US Economic Data: Strong non-farm payroll data and a rebound in manufacturing PMI have alleviated recession fears, making risk assets like stocks more attractive and prompting funds to exit the gold market [8] - Rising Real Interest Rates: Increasing US Treasury yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing investors towards higher-yielding bonds or other assets [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Slowing Central Bank Gold Purchases: While central banks have been increasing gold holdings in the long term, a short-term reduction in purchases (e.g., China pausing gold buying) may exacerbate market volatility [9] - Market Speculation: Some investors using leverage or loans for gold trading have been forced to liquidate positions due to price declines, further amplifying market volatility [10] Group 5: Other Contributing Factors - Normalization of Gold Premiums: The previous concerns over US tariffs on gold that led to inflated premiums are dissipating, reducing arbitrage opportunities and causing a decline in physical demand [11] - Consumer Demand Hesitance: With falling gold prices, consumer expectations of further declines have led to a temporary freeze in purchasing intentions, resulting in weak short-term demand [12]

美国旧金山联储主席戴利（2027年FOMC票委）：美联储当前的政策合适；对通胀风险高度敏感。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Harker, aims to avoid overreacting to trade tensions, indicating that future policies may counteract the effects of trade policies [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's stance suggests a measured approach to trade issues, emphasizing the importance of not overreacting [1] - Future policy decisions may be designed to mitigate any negative impacts arising from trade policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of major US tech stocks, the implications of credit rating downgrades, and the contrasting behaviors of retail and institutional investors in the current market environment [2][5][12]. Group 1: Stock Performance - All major US tech stocks, except Tesla, experienced declines, with Tesla showing a slight increase of 1.09% to $345.815, while Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia saw decreases ranging from -0.05% to -1.89% [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index has been on a six-day winning streak, approaching historical highs, with only a 3% increase needed to reach bull market territory [6][8]. Group 2: Credit Rating Downgrades - Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of major US banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, following a previous downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, indicating a rare blow to the US financial system that may increase borrowing costs [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the recent downgrade is less shocking compared to past downgrades, as the market had already anticipated such actions, leading to limited immediate impact on stock prices [8][9]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have shown significant enthusiasm, with net purchases of US stocks reaching a record $4.1 billion on May 19, marking a historical high for that time period [12][14]. - The proportion of retail investors holding US stocks has increased to 30%-40%, contrasting with institutional investors who are becoming more cautious and reallocating funds to other assets [14][18]. Group 4: Market Risks and Outlook - Despite the recent stock market rally, there are warnings about underestimating risks, including high US deficits and potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [17][18]. - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve maintains a tight monetary policy, US stocks may face pressure, and the expected annualized return for the next five years could decline from 15%-20% to 5%-10% [10][18][19].

期货热点追踪 美联储政策迷雾叠加地缘风险缓和，黄金白银方向选择或进入倒计时？ 相关链接 ...

现货黄金： 消息面：由于交易员评估乌克兰和平谈判的最新进展，黄金价格在前一交易日上涨超过1%后小幅走 低。特朗普和普京的通话似乎没有取得任何重大突破，但特朗普表示，莫斯科和基辅"将立即开始停火 谈判"。与此同时，美联储几位官员定于周二晚些时候发表讲话，可能会让美联储的政策前景更加明 朗。日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆 就经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。 技术面：黄金昨日小幅高开走高触及3250一线后回补缺口触及3205附近低点后行情再次拉升，最高触及 3249附近区间整理，日线最终收线在3230一线以一根上影线很长的小阳线收线，而当下日线两阴加一 阳，昨天又没破底，从日线的角度来看，今天预期还是探底回升的概率偏大！短期重要压力位置在3252 附近；破位上看3265-3272附近；晚间如果强势破位3272一线，那么多头将试探3310附近滞涨！下方重 点支撑位置是3225的支撑带；破位下看3218-3207一线！综合分析：晚间预计在3310-3200区间震荡，个 人建议低多为主！GOLD分水岭：3227美元/盎司！现报价：3235一线！ 晚间黄金操作建议： ...