【导读】现货黄金首次突破4200美元/盎司，再创历史新高 中国基金报记者 晨曦 | | | 铝牌等价 | . . . O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌黄金价格 | | | 最新: 2025.10.15 20:34 | | 日期 | 名称 | 价格 | 涨跌 | | 10.15 | 水贝黄金 | 956.51 元/克 | 实时 | | 10.15 | 周大福 | 1235元/克 | 涨20 | | 10.15 | 周生生 | 1233元/克 | 涨20 | | 10.15 | 六福珠宝 | 1235元/克 | 涨20 | | 10.15 | 金至尊 | 1235元/克 | 涨20 | | 10.15 | 潮宏基 | 1235元/克 | 涨20 | | 10.15 | 老凤祥 | 1230元/克 | 涨24 | | 10.15 | 老庙黄金 | 1235元/克 | 涨17 | | 10.15 | 菜百首饰 | 1158元/克 | 涨10 | 黄金，再创历史新高！ 10月15日，黄金午后加速上涨，现货黄金盘中一度涨至4218.13美元/盎司，日内涨幅最高达到1.85%。 此次大涨 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and spot gold surpassing $4200 for the first time [4] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has publicly stated that holding gold is "reasonable," predicting prices could easily rise to $5000-$10000, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment towards gold [4][5] - Hedge fund manager Ken Griffin noted that investors are increasingly viewing gold as a safer asset than the dollar, reflecting a growing concern about the stability of the dollar [4][5] Market Dynamics - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and record-high global public debt are driving strong demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4][5] - There is a sustained optimism in the market regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with nearly 100% expectation for a 25 basis point cut in October [4][5] - Political and economic instability, including a prolonged deadlock between U.S. political parties, is further supporting the upward trend in gold prices [4][5] Technical and Fundamental Analysis - The technical breakout above the $4200 psychological level indicates strong upward momentum for gold prices [5] - Dimon's endorsement of gold marks a significant shift in the traditional financial sector's view, suggesting a broader acceptance of gold as a viable investment [5] - The re-evaluation of gold's monetary attributes, as highlighted by Griffin's comments, suggests a potential decline in confidence in the dollar [5] Investment Opportunities - The recent performance of the Gold ETF (159937) shows a 9.81% increase over the past week, with a trading volume of 1.40 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.38% [3][8] - The Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past eight days, totaling 2.773 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [8] - The latest share count for the Gold ETF reached 3.924 billion, marking a three-month high, which reflects growing investor confidence in gold as an asset class [7][8]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间10月16日凌晨，国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.48%报4224.90美 元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨3.76%报52.53美元/盎司。有分析人士表示，美国联邦政府停摆持续发酵，市场担忧经济 前景。全球公共债务占比创新高，避险资产获支撑。 特别是摩根大通CEO戴蒙罕见表态称，持有黄金"有一定合理性"，并预测在当前环境下金价可能轻松升至5000美元甚 至10000美元，但同时他也表示："本人不会购买黄金，理由是持有成本达4%。" 对冲基金Citadel创始人Ken Griffin则表示，投资者开始将黄金视为比美元更安全的资产，称这一趋势"确实令人担 忧"。 日本产经新闻发文则分析称，买盘在预期美国可能进一步降息的背景下持续，并且由于中美贸易摩擦的再起，作为避 险资产的需求增强，进一步推高了市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, acknowledges the rationality of holding gold in the current environment, despite personally not purchasing it due to a 4% holding cost [2][3][12] Group 1: Gold Price and Market Trends - Gold prices have surged to a historical high of $4200 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 60%, outperforming the stock market [3][4] - The allocation of gold among Wall Street professional investors remains low at only 2.4%, despite the significant price increase [5] - In comparison, cryptocurrency allocation is even lower at 0.4%, indicating that gold is still relatively under-allocated [7] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Economic Concerns - The demand for safe-haven assets reflects concerns over inflation and geopolitical instability, with central bank gold purchases being a major driver of rising gold prices [8] - Dimon and Ken Griffin's comments suggest a shift in perspective among Wall Street leaders regarding the investment value of gold, indicating a reassessment of its role in portfolios [11] - Griffin views the shift towards gold as a sign of declining confidence in the dollar, highlighting rising concerns about the stability of fiat currencies [13]

当地时间10月15日，美股市场三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数小幅下跌，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均上涨。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.7%，新东方涨逾10%，小牛电动涨逾5%。现货黄金价格涨逾1%，站上4200美元/盎司，再创历史新 高，国际原油价格小幅上涨。 据央视新闻报道，美共和党临时拨款法案再次未能在参议院获得推进。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国劳工部原定15日公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI） 报告推迟发布。 中国资产上涨 当地时间10月15日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨0.66%、0.4%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.59%，特斯拉上涨1.38%，英伟达下跌0.11%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通涨逾1%，摩根士丹利涨逾4%，美国银行涨逾4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利发布第三季度业绩，第三季度净营收同比增长18%至 182.2亿美元，超出市场预期的166.4亿美元；每股收益2.8美元，同比增长约49%。其中，第三季度投行业务收入同比增长44%至21.08亿美元，股票业务收 入同比增长35%至 ...

Group 1 - The total social financing increment in China for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 30.09 trillion yuan, with RMB loans accounting for only 48.32% of this increment, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing channels [1] - Government and corporate bond financing has increased its share to 43.3% of the total social financing increment, compared to 28.95% in the first quarter of this year [1] - Experts suggest that the financial system's support for the real economy extends beyond loans, advocating for a broader perspective on financing metrics [1] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have surged by 1.4%, surpassing the 4200 USD/ounce mark for the first time in history, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The rise in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainties, and inflation expectations, prompting potential reallocation of investments towards precious metals [2] Group 3 - China Pacific Insurance has indicated a strategy to increase equity asset allocation in response to macroeconomic trends, aiming to enhance investment returns while adhering to asset-liability matching requirements [3] - This move reflects the insurance sector's growing confidence in equity markets amid a prolonged low-interest-rate environment [3] Group 4 - The insurance industry has paid out 1.41 billion yuan in compensation for various losses related to autumn grain in disaster-affected areas, demonstrating efficient emergency response capabilities [4] - The industry has established a green channel for claims processing, which is expected to expedite compensation as coordination among parties improves [4] Group 5 - China Gold has announced that CITIC Securities has completed its plan to reduce its stake by 0.83%, selling 1,391,940 shares at prices ranging from 8.23 to 9.00 yuan per share, totaling approximately 118 million yuan [5] - The reduction in stake reflects strategic adjustments by institutional investors in the company [5]

数据显示，国际金价今年以来的涨幅已超过50%。黄金是典型的避险资产。分析认为，美国政府停摆、 法国政局动荡、美日等国的经济隐忧以及持续的地缘冲突等多重因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的避 险需求。 年内涨幅已超50% 金价热度何时退潮？ 10月15日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价一度超过每盎司4200美元， 创历史新高。 盘和林表示，主要导致黄金下跌的因素可能是央行抛售黄金来稳定本币，又或者是黄金价格过高，导致 投资人望而却步。总之，趋势转折是个漫长的过程。"有时候牛市不言顶，但顶终归会出现。" 看清金价可能下跌的信号，相当于提前拿到了市场的"风险提示"，但对不熟悉专业操作的普通投资者来 说，更关键的是找到既稳妥又贴合自身情况的应对方式。 汇管信息研究院副院长赵庆明认为，近期黄金波动剧烈，普通投资者抵御风险的能力非常有限。在此情 况下，应及时止损。他表示，观察5日均线是抵御风险的一个方法。一旦金价跌破5日均线，消费者则应 减持黄金相关投资产品。 综合央视新闻客户端、宗欣 金价在多重因素叠加下走出亮眼行情，让不少人紧盯其上涨节奏，但市场从来不是单向行驶，想要判断 这波金价热度何时 ...

Group 1 - Japanese retail investors have rapidly purchased gold bars, depleting the inventory of precious metal retailers amid global uncertainties [1] - As of this week, the retail gold price in Japan has surpassed 22,400 yen per gram (approximately 1,057 RMB), nearly doubling in the past two years [1] - The price of gold in yen has increased nearly fourfold since the end of 2020 due to rising domestic inflation and yen depreciation [1] Group 2 - Retailers report a significant shift in investor behavior, with more individuals buying gold in anticipation of continued price increases rather than selling during price surges [1] - The inventory of gold bars weighing less than 50 grams is rapidly declining, with the price of 100-gram bars reaching 2.2 million yen, making smaller products more attractive to retail investors [1] - Tanaka Kikinzoku has stopped selling gold bars weighing 50 grams or less, and several competitors have also reported that smaller products are sold out [1] Group 3 - Tanaka Kikinzoku's sales planning manager stated that while raw material procurement is not an issue, production capacity for gold bars is struggling to keep up with demand [3] - The company is working to enhance production capacity, expecting to gradually resume sales by late November [3] - The surge in customer numbers began around late September when gold prices reached 20,000 yen per gram, driven by concerns over U.S. government policies [3] Group 4 - Analysts believe that the yen will continue to depreciate due to the expectation of more expansionary fiscal policies from both the ruling and opposition parties [3] - Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, noted that gold is viewed as an effective diversification option to protect asset value against yen depreciation risks [4]

Core Insights - The current Dow Jones to Gold multiple is around 11x, indicating that gold is expensive compared to stocks [1] - The average global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for gold miners is $1,600 per ounce, with current gold prices over 2.6x this metric, suggesting higher production from lower-tier mines [2] - The gold-to-oil ratio has risen above historical averages, indicating a potential need for gold prices to fall or oil prices to rise [3] - Analysts are gradually raising gold price forecasts, with Bank of America predicting prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [5] - The macro environment is favorable for gold, with increased investment from both retail and institutional investors, including central banks [7][8] - The fragile geopolitical situation and high U.S. debt levels are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [9][10] - Recent Fed rate cuts are seen as positive for gold prices, as lower interest rates benefit non-interest-bearing assets [11] Investment Dynamics - The current gold price rally has surprised analysts, who were initially conservative with their targets [6] - There are several bullish drivers for gold prices, including fears of a stock market bubble and increased hedging by investors [7] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves amid a de-dollarization trend, further supporting gold prices [8] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and fears of recession are increasing safe-haven demand for gold [10] - Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally, with some analysts advising caution [13]

Group 1 - Gansu Province has discovered a large gold mine in the Qianhongquan-Heishan Beitan area, with an additional gold resource of over 40 tons, equivalent to the resource amount of two large gold mines [1] - The Qianhongquan gold mine was discovered through large-scale geochemical exploration methods based on basic geological survey work, providing significant guidance for gold mine exploration in similar regions [1] - On October 15, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange exceeded $4200 per ounce, setting a historical high [1] Group 2 - International gold prices have increased by over 50% this year, driven by multiple factors including U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan and the U.S., and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [3] - On October 15, domestic gold jewelry prices rose, with major brands like Lao Miao, Chow Tai Fook, and Liufuk Jewelry all pricing their 24K gold jewelry at 1235 yuan per gram [3][6] - On the same day, gold-related stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining hitting their daily limit up, indicating strong market interest in gold investments [7][8]