李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济工作会议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理回升已经成为一项重要的政策目标。那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开 讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 2016-2017年是我国推进供给侧结构性改革力度最大的两年，提出了去杠杆、去库存、去产能的要求，认为我国PPI持续走低的主要原因是供给端无序扩张， 需求端还是比较旺盛的。去产能的重点领域是钢铁和煤炭，同时还包括水泥、玻璃、电解铝等原料生产，其他领域存量过剩产能的去化，主要通过环保控产 量、提高排放标准等，倒逼行业自发出清。 中国PPI与CPI的走势 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济结构的扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构 等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显的回升迹象，CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for achieving a reasonable recovery in prices in China, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing economic growth and employment as key policy goals [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Economic Context - The current cycle of low prices in China began in 2012, with PPI entering negative territory and CPI fluctuating between 0-1% since 2022, raising concerns about economic stability [2][5]. - From May 2012, China's PPI diverged from that of Europe and the US, remaining negative for over four years until October 2016, primarily due to structural issues in the economy and a decline in global commodity prices [2][5]. - The increase in China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of global totals from 8.6% in 2004 to 22.3% in 2012 has contributed to an oversupply of goods, while the population share has been declining [2][5]. Group 2: Government Policies and Economic Reforms - In response to diminishing policy stimulus effects post-2012, local governments increased debt levels from 16.3% in 2011 to 23.9% in 2015, leading to an oversupply in the market and necessitating supply-side structural reforms [5][7]. - The years 2016-2017 saw significant supply-side reforms aimed at reducing excess capacity in key sectors like steel and coal, which were identified as major contributors to the prolonged low PPI [5][7]. Group 3: Recent Economic Challenges - The trade tensions initiated by the US in 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further exacerbated the situation, leading to a renewed decline in PPI as domestic demand weakened [7][10]. - The current downturn in PPI since October 2022 is marked by a shift from household balance sheet expansion to contraction, indicating a downturn in the real estate sector, which has compounded the issues of oversupply and insufficient demand [10][13]. Group 4: Structural Issues and Future Outlook - The article highlights that the persistent low inflation reflects deeper structural, cyclical, and systemic issues within the economy, necessitating a comprehensive approach to fiscal policy and income distribution reform [13][35]. - The need for targeted fiscal measures to boost consumer demand and stabilize the real estate market is emphasized, as these are critical for achieving a reasonable price recovery [35][50]. - The article concludes that merely relying on monetary policy will not suffice; a strategic overhaul of fiscal spending and income distribution is essential to address the underlying issues of low consumer demand and economic stagnation [53][54].

内容：展示中国2025年11月的经济活动指标，包括出口和国内消费、投资等指标的同比增长情况。 核心观点：中国经济呈现分化态势，出口和出口相关制造业投资表现强劲，贡献了约一半的实际GDP增长，尽管面临美国关税增加的压力，但出口仍超出市 场预期。相比之下，国内消费持续疲软，投资首次出现年度同比下降，房地产活动指标继续下滑。 2025年是中国经济充满挑战与机遇的一年。在全球贸易格局变化、国内经济结构调整以及新兴技术快速发展的背景下，中国经济呈现出诸多值得关注的趋势 和特点。高盛《The Tale of 2025 in 15 Charts》通过15张图表，深入剖析了2025年中国经济的关键主题。 图表1：经济分化，出口强劲但内需疲软 图表2：美中关税调整历程 内容：呈现自特朗普第二任期开始以来，美中之间关税调整的时间线和幅度变化。 核心观点：美中关税在2025年4月达到超过100%的峰值，目前维持在约30%。尽管中国对美出口同比下降20%-30%，但中国对其他新兴市场（如东盟、拉美 和非洲）的出口增长强劲，部分抵消了对美出口的下滑。 图表3：中国对美出口下滑，对其他国家出口上升 内容：对比中国对美国和其他国家出口的同 ...

12月16日出版的《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这 是习近平总书记2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关重要论述的节录。 na Internet Development Foundation 中国互联网发展基金会 中国正能量网络传播专项基金支持项目 大国经济的优势就是内部可循环。 我国有14亿人口, 人均国内生产总值已经突破1万美元, 是全球最大最有潜力的消费市场。 居民消费优化升级, 同现代科技和生产方式相结合 蕴含着巨大增长空间。 习近平 在中央财经委员会第七次会议上的讲话 2020年4月10日 3 NTEK 在党的十八届五中全会第二次全体会议上的讲话 2015年10月29日 互联网友展基金会 a Internet Development Foundation 中国互联网发展基金会 中国正能量网络传播专项基金支持项目 扩大内需和扩大开放并不矛盾。 国中线区就将成 四川地的地 越能形成对全球资源要素的引力场, 越有利于构建以国内大循环为主体、 国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局, 越育利于形成 参与国际竞争和合作新优势。 习近平 在中央财经 ...

（原标题：方正燕翔：2026增长稳、科技强、内需进，价格回升引盈利修复） 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 广州报道 "若2026年'反内卷'政策成功推动再通胀，参照2016—2017年供给侧结构性改革的成功逻辑，企业盈利 有望快速修复，从而为市场注入强劲动力。"在南方财经论坛2025年证券业年会上，方正证券首席经济 学家燕翔如是表示。 燕翔首先对2026年经济走势提出"三维度"分析框架：一是"增长稳"，GDP增速将保持在稳定区间；二 是"科技强"，"三新"经济占比持续提升，汽车、AI等产业在全球市场的竞争力进一步凸显；三是"内需 进"，消费与投资将实现边际改善，内需将成为核心驱动力，尤其在2025年低位基础上实现显著修复。 谈及A股市场前景，燕翔从微观基础出发，指出A股盈利与PPI高度正相关这一关键规律。 数据显示，2025年10月PPI同比仍为-2.1%，上市公司盈利整体处于筑底阶段。燕翔认为，若2026年"反 内卷"政策推动商品价格回升，参照2016—2017年供给侧结构性改革经验（当时全A非金融上市公司盈 利增速分别达31%和34%），企业盈利将明显改善，为市场提供强劲支撑。 针对美股AI泡沫问题，燕翔 ...

Core Insights - The conference celebrated the 25th anniversary of the China WTO Research Institute, emphasizing China's pivotal role in the multilateral trading system as the world's largest goods trader [1][3] - Experts discussed the future of the WTO and China's role, highlighting the need for continued support for WTO reforms and China's participation in global economic governance [1][5] Group 1 - The conference was attended by over 170 experts from WTO, government departments, universities, and research institutions, focusing on "The Future of the WTO and China's Role" [1] - The China WTO Research Institute has made significant contributions over the past 25 years in WTO research, talent cultivation, and supporting national decision-making [1][3] - The institute is recognized as the only key research base named after the WTO by the Ministry of Education, with hopes to inject new vitality into China's global economic governance participation [1][3] Group 2 - Keynote speeches were delivered by former officials and experts, addressing issues such as the stalemate in WTO reforms and the importance of multilateralism and cooperative win-win strategies [5] - Roundtable discussions focused on topics like "The Chinese Factors in WTO Reform" and "US-China Geopolitical Competition and Trade System Reconstruction," contributing Chinese wisdom to global economic governance [5][8] - The conference is part of a series that has successfully provided a platform for important exchanges in the field, with the next event coinciding with the 25th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move essential for economic stability and security, aiming for long-term sustainable development and meeting the growing needs of the population [2][32]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - Current economic challenges include insufficient total demand, necessitating the implementation of a comprehensive domestic demand system to boost consumption and investment [3][27]. - The article highlights that consumption is a crucial engine for economic growth, with a focus on promoting employment, improving social security, and optimizing income distribution to expand the middle-income group [3][10]. Domestic Demand Strategy - The strategy to expand domestic demand involves enhancing consumption capabilities, improving consumption conditions, and innovating consumption scenarios to fully unleash consumption potential [27][31]. - It is essential to establish a long-term mechanism for increasing residents' consumption, ensuring stable income, and creating a favorable consumption environment [31][18]. Investment and Infrastructure - The article calls for optimizing investment mechanisms and expanding effective investment space, particularly in new infrastructure and high-tech industries, to stimulate private investment [3][31]. - Government investment should play a guiding role, focusing on long-term benefits and addressing structural issues in the economy [28][19]. Supply-Side Structural Reform - There is a need to deepen supply-side structural reforms to enhance the competitiveness and security of the industrial and supply chains, ensuring that supply meets existing demand and creates new demand [3][31]. - The article stresses the importance of balancing supply and demand, with a focus on achieving a dynamic equilibrium that fosters economic circulation [30][32]. Global and Domestic Interaction - Expanding domestic demand and opening up to international markets are not contradictory; a smooth domestic cycle can attract global resources and enhance international competitiveness [2][10]. - The article suggests that the domestic market's potential is significant, with a large middle-income population that can drive consumption growth [10][9].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The new consumption pattern in China is driven by generational shifts, with each generation having its own cultural symbols, referred to as "Labubu" [1] - The "Implementation Plan" aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand, identifying three trillion-level and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots to boost resource allocation efficiency [1] - The Chinese潮玩 market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24% from 2022 to 2026, reflecting a structural change in demand [3] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - Future consumption is shifting from purchasing goods to subscribing to experiences, influenced by spatial, temporal, and relational dimensions [2] - Consumers are evolving from mere buyers to co-creators of content and emotional transmitters, emphasizing community relationships and cultural identity [2] - The demand for children's products is transitioning from safety features to cognitive development and emotional growth, with a focus on AI-enabled interactive toys [6] Group 3: Supply-Side Innovations - The supply side is undergoing a structural transformation, with flexible production and rapid iteration becoming industry standards, allowing for quick responses to new consumer trends [8] - The "Implementation Plan" emphasizes differentiated supply for various consumer groups, moving from traditional age-based products to lifestyle-based solutions [8] - The silver economy in China is projected to grow from approximately 7 trillion yuan in 2023 to 30 trillion yuan by 2035, indicating a shift towards comprehensive lifestyle solutions for the elderly [7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The investment focus is on three trillion-level sectors (elderly products, smart vehicles, consumer electronics) and ten hundred-billion-level sectors (潮玩, outdoor products, pet supplies, smart wearables, and national trend clothing) [9] - Identifying the next "Labubu" involves assessing emotional needs, sustainable supply systems, and alignment with national development strategies [10]

顺应消费升级、人口老龄化、促进出生人口增长等需要，在养老、托育、健康、文旅等消费配套设施领 域实施一批重点项目。 国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表文章《坚定实施扩大内需战略》中指出，着力释放居民消费潜力。 一方面，大力提升居民消费意愿。深入实施提振消费专项行动。加力稳定大宗消费，实施好消费品以旧 换新政策。强化品牌引领、标准升级、新技术应用，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景。支持 首发经济、赛事经济、电子商务等发展。顺应消费升级、人口老龄化、促进出生人口增长等需要，在养 老、托育、健康、文旅等消费配套设施领域实施一批重点项目。大力实施城市更新，抓好停车场、老旧 电梯更新等民生微项目。进一步拓展入境消费，提升便利化水平。 另一方面，切实增强居民消费能力。强化就业优先政策，多渠道稳定和扩大就业，优化创业促进就业政 策环境，支持重点群体就业。实施城乡居民增收计划，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳 动报酬在初次分配中的比重，努力实现居民收入和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同 步。加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出。健全社会保障体系，稳步推进 基本公共服务均等化，加大生育 ...

国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表文章《坚定实施扩大内需战略》中指出，着力释放居民消费潜力。 一方面，大力提升居民消费意愿。深入实施提振消费专项行动。加力稳定大宗消费，实施好消费品以旧换新政策。强化品牌引领、标准升 级、新技术应用，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景。支持首发经济、赛事经济、电子商务等发展。顺应消费升级、人口老龄化、 促进出生人口增长等需要，在养老、托育、健康、文旅等消费配套设施领域实施一批重点项目。大力实施城市更新，抓好停车场、老旧电梯 更新等民生微项目。进一步拓展入境消费，提升便利化水平。 另一方面，切实增强居民消费能力。强化就业优先政策，多渠道稳定和扩大就业，优化创业促进就业政策环境，支持重点群体就业。实施城 乡居民增收计划，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重，努力实现居民收入和经济增长同步、劳动报 酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步。加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出。健全社会保障体系，稳步推进基本公共 服务均等化，加大生育养育支持力度。 以下为原文： 坚定实施扩大内需战略 中共国家发展和改革委员会党组 大力实施扩大内需战略，是以习近平同志 ...