Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of various agricultural products is mainly "oscillating." For corn, the 11 - month contract is expected to oscillate, with short - term operations focusing on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through. For soybeans and related products, they are also in an oscillating state, and short - term participation is recommended. For palm oil and other oils, prices are oscillating due to factors such as high inventory and low consumption. For eggs, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to the change in production capacity. For pigs, the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: In the futures market, the 11 - month contract adjusted with position reduction this week, and the 9 - month contract rebounded due to the delayed listing of Liaoxi corn. In the spot market, before the new grain is listed, the supply is expected to increase, and the corn price shows a weak performance. Technically, the 11 - month contract encountered resistance at the 2200 - yuan mark and ended six consecutive positive days. Short - term operations should focus on whether the 2200 - yuan mark can be effectively broken through [2] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - week low on Thursday. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to oscillate, with funds leaving the market and low trading volume. Oil mills have high inventories, and downstream feed enterprises have sufficient positions until the end of the month, with low purchasing willingness [2] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil oscillated narrowly on Thursday and rose on a weekly basis. An investigation shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August increased for the sixth consecutive month. In the domestic market, oil prices are oscillating and adjusting due to factors such as low consumption, high inventory, and large supply pressure [2] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed insufficient rebound strength after a low - level rebound at the beginning of the week. In the spot market, the terminal digestion improved near the weekend, and most egg prices in the sales areas rose. In the long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled and later replenishment [2][3] - **Pigs**: The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell on Thursday. In the spot market, the average daily price of live pigs in China decreased. Affected by supply - side pressure, the pig price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak in the short - term [3] Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a fall inspection of the crop seed market nationwide, focusing on key crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and vegetables, and will send 5 working groups to key seed - using areas for supervision [4] - The bid - winning rate of CGC's rapeseed oil and sunflower oil procurement on September 4 was 100% [4] - According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with an estimated total output of 1.85 million tons [5] Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [7][8][12][16] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for multiple varieties including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [15][18][19][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The protein meal market is expected to be range - bound. Investors are advised to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at high prices [3][5]. - The outlook for the oil market is oscillating strongly. Palm oil may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia [7][9]. - The sugar market is generally bearish. The downward space depends on the Brazilian production speed from August to October [11][12]. - The cotton market may improve fundamentally. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [14][15]. - The egg market may be prone to rising in the short - term but needs to be cautious about the pressure after demand overdraft and position decline in the medium - term [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in September. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound on the futures market and the far - month reverse spread strategy [20][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Protein Meal - **Important Information**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans were stocked up, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be significantly less in the next two weeks, and the soybean good - quality rate has declined. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal spot market may start to destock in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious at high prices [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in August, while production decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. The international palm oil CNF quotation has declined slightly, and China's palm oil import cost has dropped. The domestic three major oils oscillated on Thursday, and foreign investors continued to reduce their long positions [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils fell due to the weakening of commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory in Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Palm oil is expected to be oscillating strongly before the inventory is fully accumulated and the negative feedback from demand does not appear [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar supply has increased significantly since July. The new sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have increased production. The overall view is bearish, and the downward space depends on the Brazilian production [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season are expected to decrease compared with the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 51%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the downstream consumption is average, considering the upcoming consumption peak season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals may improve. In the short - term, cotton prices are likely to oscillate at a high level [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were normal [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply has improved marginally, and the demand has increased due to pre - festival stocking. In the short - term, egg prices are likely to rise, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell on the previous day, with some local increases. The demand support was limited, and the sales resistance for farmers was large [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The previous expectation of a spot price rebound has failed. The current futures price has low expectations for the future. In September, the supply may be weak, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a low - level rebound and the far - month reverse spread strategy [21].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 苹果产区降雨增多，红枣供需弱平衡 苹果观点 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8332元/吨，较前一日变动-57元/吨，幅度-0.68%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-832，较前一日变动+57；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1268，较前一日变动+57。 近期市场资讯，陕西早熟富士大面积上色中，渭南、洛川早熟富士少量上市交易，价格高于去年同期，目前红货 好货有限，客商采购积极性尚可。山东产区奶油红将军陆续交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存 富士行情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西白水 产区早熟富士70#起步好货3.8-4.3元/斤，一般货源价格3-4元/斤，价格不等，以质论价为主。 山东栖霞产区果农三 级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the short - term supply is tight, and the price may be slightly stronger before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium - term, due to the strong expectation of a bumper harvest, the price may face pressure [3] - For sugar, the short - term supply pressure is large, but the low inventory of domestic sugar limits the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,990 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,373 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,465 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1] - India: There was heavy rainfall in cotton - growing areas, and the CCI auctioned about 170,000 tons of cotton on the 2nd, with the S - 6 auction reserve price stable at 54,500 rupees/candy [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - exemption period, and the USDA in August significantly lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited sliding - duty quotas did not solve the tight supply problem. The new cotton is growing well, and there is a possibility of抢购 at the beginning, but the hedging pressure during the centralized listing will limit the price [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term price may be slightly stronger, and there may be a decline in the medium - term if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [3] - India: The government allowed sugar mills and distilleries to use various raw materials to produce ethanol without restrictions in the 2025/26 season [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's Conab and other institutions lowered the sugar production forecast, and Pakistan's purchase boosted the price. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere's production increase expectation suppresses the price [4] - Zheng sugar: The high import profit and large import volume in July, along with the impact of processed sugar in August - September, put pressure on the price [5] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, but the low domestic sugar inventory limits the decline space. Pay attention to syrup policy changes [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume is expected to decline. However, the slow port inventory reduction and high inventory level maintain the supply pressure [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also sluggish during the off - season, with high finished - product inventory and cautious procurement by paper mills [7] Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures showed an adjustment performance on Wednesday, with the November contract encountering resistance and falling back. The spot market's supply is expected to increase before the new grain is on the market, and the corn price is showing a weak performance. The futures market has rebounded recently, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. Technically, the November contract of corn encountered resistance and fell back at the 2200 yuan integer mark on Wednesday, and the futures price returned to a volatile performance [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell to a two - week low on Wednesday due to concerns about the demand prospects of US soybeans. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to fluctuate, with a small increase. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - BMD palm oil fell on Wednesday, dragged down by the trends of competing vegetable oils and crude oil. The domestic oil prices oscillated and adjusted, with palm oil rising and then falling. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - The main contract of eggs on Wednesday continued to rebound, and the spot price was mostly stable with a few small increases. The egg price is expected to have a seasonal rebound according to the normal seasonal pattern, but it is affected by the supply - side pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3]. - The main contract of live pigs on Wednesday oscillated and adjusted. The fundamentals and market sentiment have not changed much compared with the previous period, and the live pig price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to whether the future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 5, 2025, Sinograin's e - commerce platform will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans, with 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans for sale [4]. - On September 5, Sinograin's e - commerce trading center will organize a two - way competitive trading session for sunflower oil, with 3,450 tons of grade - three sunflower oil for trading [4]. - A research institution predicts that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will increase to 5.9 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, due to good weather conditions [4]. - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [5]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, soybeans 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread, palm oil 1 - 5 spread, egg 1 - 5 spread, and live pig 1 - 5 spread [6][7][8][12][16]. 4.2 Contract Basis - The report shows contract basis including corn basis, corn starch basis, soybean basis, soybean meal basis, soybean oil basis, palm oil basis, egg basis, and live pig basis [14][15][18][19][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and rich experience. Her futures qualification number is F0243534, and her trading consultation number is Z0001262 [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many honors. Her futures qualification number is F3048706, and her trading consultation number is Z0013637 [27]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures qualification number is F3032578, and her trading consultation number is Z0013544 [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs further verification. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to show a range - bound trend, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term. The domestic sugar price is generally bearish, while the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. The egg price may rise steadily in the short - term, and the short - term trend of the hog price is weak, but there is potential support [3][5][10][13][16][18][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, US soybeans fell due to concerns about demand, and there was no new information on Sino - US soybean trade. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded slightly. Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybeans both accumulated inventory, and the soybean meal inventory was still high. The soybean good rate in the US has declined, and the Brazilian premium has rebounded after a decline. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to start destocking in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, while production decreased. Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase. Before the fourth Sino - US talks in late October or early November, the domestic soybean meal cost will gradually increase. If the US soybeans are purchased after the talks and the South American new crop has a good harvest, the domestic soybean meal price may decline. On Wednesday, the three major domestic oils and fats were weak, with large foreign capital short - selling [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats have fallen due to high valuations and weak commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy, limited palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia, and low inventory support the price center. Palm oil may be bullish in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. As of the end of August, the cumulative sales - to - production ratio in Guangxi increased year - on - year, while that in Yunnan decreased. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased, while that in Yunnan increased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since July, the domestic sugar import supply has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the new season. The overall view is bearish. The downward space depends on the international market [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell slightly. The global 2025/26 cotton production and ending inventory are expected to decrease compared to the previous month's forecast. As of August 31, the US cotton good rate decreased but was still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, with the approaching of the peak consumption season and low domestic inventory, the situation may improve. Technically, the cotton price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply was relatively stable, and the market was trading normally. The egg price may continue to be stable with some increases [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in the elimination of laying hens and the increase in demand due to pre - festival stocking, the egg price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the medium - term pressure [18]. Hogs - **Spot Information**: The domestic hog price was mostly stable with some declines. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The hog price may decline today, and some low - price areas may remain stable [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the failure of the expected rebound in the spot price, the market is trading the reality of oversupply. In September, the supply may still be weak, but there is potential support from demand and other factors. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the low - level rebound [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on September 3, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and relevant influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies for each variety [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices rose with reduced positions. The 9 - month contract is approaching delivery, and the 11 - month contract's positions continue to decline. The spot market expects an increase in supply before the new grain is listed, and prices are weak. In the Northeast, prices are mainly weak. New corn may be listed in Liaoning Heishan from September 5 - 10. Rain in North China affected corn, with some enterprise prices up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for new corn. Technically, the 11 - month contract had six consecutive positive days, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view before the new grain is listed [2] - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to low demand expectations. US soybean meal followed, while US soybean oil rose. US soybean weekly export inspection was 47.2 tons, and the monthly crushing volume in July was 614 tons. The excellent - good rate was 65%. Domestically, soybean meal prices oscillated. Brazilian soybean premiums fell, and domestic inventories increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2] - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose due to bargain - hunting and strong exports. Indian palm oil imports in August increased significantly. Domestically, oil prices rose, with palm oil performing the best. However, weak consumption and high inventories limited the increase. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [2] - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main 2510 egg contract oscillated at a low level and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some small increases. Seasonally, egg prices should rebound in late August, but supply pressure keeps prices weak. In the long - term, pay attention to old hen culling [2][3] - **Hogs**: On Tuesday, the main 2511 hog futures contract oscillated weakly and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with regional differences. The supply in the north increased, and prices fell, while the south had price support. The market expects prices to oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand and market sentiment [3] 3.2 Market Information - Ukraine will impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, then it will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 30.53% (SGS data) or 15.37% (AmSpec data) compared to the previous month, and production decreased by 2.65% [4] - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% to 99.3 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 35.5 tons [4] - As of September 1, Ukrainian farmers had sown 37.71 hectares of winter rapeseed, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated area [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) and contract basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][25] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and hogs. They have rich experience and many honors [27]

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 张庆 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8570 | 8570 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8390 | 32 | 0.38% | | 墓差 | | Y2601 | 148 | 180 | -32 | -17.78% | | 现货墓差报价 | | 江苏9月 | 01+220 | 01+220 | 0 | 1 | | 仓单 | | | 15760 | 15760 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 9月2日 | 9月1日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 9330 | 9280 | 50 | 0.54% | | 期价 | | P260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Macroeconomic influence is prominent, with an oscillating rebound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: High - level oscillation, narrowing spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The significant decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact [2][12]. - Soybean No.1: Rebound and oscillation, pay attention to the atmosphere in the soybean market [2][12]. - Corn: Oscillating operation [2][15]. - Sugar: Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production [2][19]. - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing of new crops [2][24]. - Eggs: Intense near - end game [2][30]. - Live pigs: Weakening expectations [2][32]. - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) or 30.53% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3970 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3968 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3050 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and the night - session closing price was 3056 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory also increased [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to China's lack of interest in US new - season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the expected 68% [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [14]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of C2509 was 2,265 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. The trading volume and positions of the corn market changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn port collection price was 2200 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.14 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 4450 tons from the previous 4590 tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,045 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the positions also decreased. The spot price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 20 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, with only rigid demand from spinning mills. The ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of Egg 2510 was 2,959 yuan/500 kg with a 0.37% increase, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of Egg 2601 was 3,384 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and the trading volume and positions increased [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The closing price of Live Pig 2511 was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed [34]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farms significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and small - scale farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts. The purchase sentiment for piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. The support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 7,970 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of PK511 was 7,790 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the trading volume increased while the positions decreased [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian area was around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of large peanuts in Kaifeng area was around 4.0 - 4.15 yuan/jin. The weather cleared, the dryness of peanuts improved, the supply increased, but the inquiry and purchase decreased. New peanuts in Inner Mongolia are expected to be listed sporadically in about a week [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs) are rated as "volatile" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Corn: The futures price continues to rise, but the spot price is expected to be weak before the new grain is listed. The 11 - month contract shows a five - consecutive - yang pattern. It is recommended to maintain a volatile mindset before the new grain is listed [2] - Soybean Meal: The domestic two - meal futures prices rise to repair the deviation. The market has a divergence on whether there will be a shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The price is mainly volatile, and short - term long positions are recommended [2] - Oils: The domestic three major vegetable oils are volatile due to the lack of external market guidance. The basis is rising steadily. With the start of school, the market expects the demand to improve. Short - term trading is recommended [2] - Eggs: The spot price is weakly volatile, and the futures price is in a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Pigs: The futures price rebounds slightly, and the spot price rises. The fundamentals and market sentiment change little, and the price is expected to be volatile [3] Market Information - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills from August 22 - 29 was 2430000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 160000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 370000 tons, 410000 tons higher than the average of the same period in the past three years [3] - The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in August was about 10000000 tons, at a historical high. The import volume of soybeans in September is still high, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 9500000 tons [4] - On August 29, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October - November shipments was - 111 to - 127 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 45 to - 29 yuan/ton. The procurement of soybeans for October shipments is nearly completed, while that for November to January next year is scarce [4] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1421486 metric tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous month [4] Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, etc [6][7] Contract Basis - The report presents contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, etc [14][17]