| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | F EF FUTUR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年7月24日 | | | 王速框 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | | 江苏一级 现价 | | 8310 | 8330 | -20 | -0.24% | | 期价 Y2509 | | 8074 | 8076 | -2 | -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2509 | | 236 | 254 | -18 | -7.09% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏7月 | | 09 + 160 | 09+160 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 21695 | 21695 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 P2509 | | 8994 | 8 ...

Research Views Corn - Tuesday saw the corn weighted contract increase in price with reduced positions, and the September contract has reduced positions for two consecutive days with a rebound in futures prices. In the spot market, the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened due to the decline in the auction成交率. The overall atmosphere in the Northeast production area has recovered, and corn prices have rebounded. Corn prices in North China are generally stable, with individual enterprises slightly increasing prices. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, but the prices remain stable. In Henan and Hebei, a few enterprises have slightly increased prices. Corn prices in the sales area have slightly rebounded. Over the weekend, corn prices in the production area rebounded by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The futures have been rising, and traders at ports in the sales area have slightly increased their quotes, but downstream acceptance is average, and trading is dull. Technically, the September contract has rebounded to the previous intensive trading range of 2320 - 2330, and the short - term rebound is restricted by technical resistance, showing a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [1]. Soybean Meal - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower with high volatility, rising at one point due to the decline in US crop ratings and trade negotiation news. US soybean meal rose, and US soybean oil fell. Traders were originally worried about the high temperature in the US Midwest damaging yields, but after a brief heatwave in the middle of this week, rainfall is expected to limit crop stress. In the domestic market, the spot prices of domestic rapeseed meal and soybean meal have all increased, and futures prices have also risen. The general rise of commodities has created a mostly bullish atmosphere for the protein meal market. The firm Brazilian premium and the increase in soybean import costs support the price of soybean meal. The oil mill operating rate remains high, but terminal inquiry willingness is low, and it is mainly for short - term rigid demand. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating rapidly. Oil mills have limited contracts for sale, and some factories have suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market is closely watching the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading strategy is to hold a bullish view on the market, and hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly increased, following the trend of the surrounding market. However, market volatility has intensified due to the unclear prospects of trade negotiations between major economies. Canadian rapeseed prices fell because of the beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairie this week, which support crop yield prospects, but commercial buying limited the decline. In the domestic market, the spot prices of palm oil have all increased, while the spot prices of domestic soybean oil and imported rapeseed oil have all decreased. Recently, oil mills have urged downstream customers to pick up goods, but the fundamentals of soybean oil remain loose, and the inventory has continued to rise, reaching an eight - month high. Commodities have generally risen, led by industrial products, and the fats and oils market lacks hot spots, with capital flowing out. The fats and oils market is mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to conduct intraday trading on single - side positions and hold long positions in the 91 spreads [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract 2509 oscillated and adjusted, closing down 0.41% at 3621 yuan/500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.2 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production area, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, a 0.2 - yuan/jin increase. In the sales area, the price of Putuo brown - shell eggs was 3.24 yuan/jin, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Terminal consumption is stable, and most traders purchase and sell in line with the market. Egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing slight increases or decreases. Currently, the supply is still relatively abundant. After the previous low - price rebound, egg prices have stabilized. Fundamentally, egg prices are expected to enter a peak season, which is bullish for prices. However, considering the current high inventory and cold - storage eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Live Pigs - On Tuesday, the main live pig contract 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.1% at 14380 yuan/ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 14.34 yuan/kg, a 0.06 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous day. The average price of live pigs in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.02 - yuan/kg decrease. Prices in Guangdong and Sichuan were flat, while those in Shandong and Liaoning decreased. After the previous rebound in pig prices, farmers have been actively selling, and the supply is sufficient, but downstream demand support is weak. Pig prices are stable in some regions and decreasing in others. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. Considering the supply pressure and policy support, the view on pig prices is that they will oscillate. On the futures chart, the previous high forms obvious resistance. Attention should be paid to changes in spot prices and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 are estimated to be 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - Russia's Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said that Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has cut its 2025 wheat production and 2025/26 market - year wheat export volume forecasts. The current forecast for wheat production is 88 - 90 million tons, down from the previous 90 million tons. The expected export volume for this year is 43 - 44 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 45 million tons [3]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high at 1.26 million tons, exceeding the figures in June 2022 (1.19 million tons), June 2023 (1.17 million tons), and June 2024 (1.21 million tons). However, the palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. In the first half of 2025, Kenya became Malaysia's second - largest palm oil buyer, surpassing the EU 27 (21,000 tons) and China (117,000 tons). Kenya accounts for 30% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports to sub - Saharan Africa, and its annual import volume from Malaysia is expected to reach 1.3 million tons [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the next round of Sino - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. At the Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on July 22, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, give play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][7][8][11] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][17][23][25] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. In 2019, her team won the title of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. In 2023, her team won the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University. She is a special economic analyst for Xinhua News Agency and a financial commentator on CCTV's economic and news channels [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has more than ten years of futures - trading experience. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures research and development team at DCE in 2013 and the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019. In 2023, she participated in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University and won the special prize [27]. - Kong Hailan, a master in economics, is currently a researcher for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel. Her team won the title of the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019 and the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in 2023 [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to maintain a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply is relatively loose, but the soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth need attention [1][2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. The import corn auction turnover rate has declined, weakening its impact on market prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3086 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.33%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US Information: As of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. As of July 17, the US soybean export inspection volume was 36.5 tons [1] Market Analysis - US: Future weather in major US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area [2] - China: Oil mills are accumulating inventory, and the aquaculture industry is in a consumption off - season. Feed enterprises purchase on - demand. The supply is loose, and spot prices are stable, but the futures price rose due to macro - sentiment [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2322 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Other Information: As of July 17, the harvest of Brazil's second - season corn was 55%, and the expected total output was 1.363 billion tons. US wheat export inspection volume in the week of July 17 was 73.2 tons, up 64.7% week - on - week and 152.0% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: After concentrated grain sales in major domestic producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. Deep - processing enterprises also purchase on - demand, with narrow price adjustments [4] - Policy: The turnover rate of imported corn auctions has decreased, weakening its impact on market prices [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-23 早熟果上市量增加，关注新季果品质 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7929元/吨，较前一日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.08%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-29，较前一日变动-6；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1671，较前一日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库存货源交易氛围仍显一般，西部产区货源剩余不多，部分冷库对水烂点货源存急售心 理，现货商发自存货源为主，早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。剩余货 源结构多以中大果居多，走货不快。销区市场需求不佳，近期南方销区台风多雨天气，走货不快。陕西洛川产区 目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤， 果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by production growth and export decline, the crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure after oscillating around the annual line, testing the support at 4,100 ringgit. Domestically, there is a risk of weakness for domestic palm oil futures, with attention on the support around 8,800 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: In August, weather impacts on soybean crops increase. Although the latest US soybean good - rate is high, CBOT soybeans may fluctuate narrowly. Domestically, short - term basis quotes may be under pressure, but long - term support exists [1]. 2.2. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted, production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained considering the overall production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally looser, with a bearish view after rebounds [3][4]. 2.3. Cotton - The demand side of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to a follow - up increase in yarn prices. The supply side faces some pressure from the sale of old cotton stocks, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before new cotton is listed. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and face pressure after new cotton is listed [7]. 2.4. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and laying rates, causing a shortage of large - sized eggs. With the start of the peak demand season, egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [9]. 2.5. Corn - The corn auction on July 22 had a 27%成交 rate, and the market has digested the news. Supply is tightening due to factors like reduced willingness to sell and bad weather. Demand has some resilience. In the medium - term, supply is tight and demand is increasing, supporting prices. In the short - term, the market is stable, and the futures may oscillate strongly but with limited space [12][13]. 2.6. Meal - US soybeans are bottom - oscillating, and the expected August drought in the main production areas provides support. Brazilian soybeans are firm, but Chinese purchases of US soybeans may suppress Brazilian premiums. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. After October, the continuity of soybean arrivals is uncertain, and a cautious bullish operation is recommended [16]. 2.7. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak, so prices are weak. There is no basis for a sharp decline, but the upside is limited. The futures are affected by macro funds, and caution is needed when chasing up prices in the far - month contracts [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.24% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 0.20% to 8,092 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 0.18% to 8,926 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the futures price (01509) decreased by 0.90% to 9,477 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Sugar - **Price Changes**: - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.30% to 5,653 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.27% to 5,823 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.17% to 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.68% to 5,920 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Data**: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 23.07% to 811.38 million tons [3]. 3.3. Cotton - **Price Changes**: - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.28% to 14,225 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 0.29% to 14,030 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.41% to 15,416 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Data**: - Northern inventory decreased by 10.2% to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% to 88.21 million tons [7]. 3.4. Eggs - **Price Changes**: - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.41% to 3,621 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract decreased by 0.53% to 3,574 yuan/500KG [9]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 1.59% to 3.23 yuan/jin [9]. 3.5. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The price of corn 2509 increased by 0.09% to 2,322 yuan/ton, and the price of corn starch 2509 increased by 0.15% to 2,668 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Data**: - The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 35.29% to 132 [12]. 3.6. Meal - **Price Changes**: - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.35% to 2,900 yuan/ton, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 0.43% to 3,069 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.34% to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 0.18% to 2,727 yuan/ton [16]. 3.7. Pigs - **Price Changes**: - The price of the pig 2511 contract increased by 0.65% to 13,960 yuan/ton, and the price of the pig 2509 contract increased by 0.10% to 14,380 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Data**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.09% to 133,605 heads, and the monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% to 4,042 million heads [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish with Limited Operability)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Live Hogs [1] - **Two Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish Trend and Market Fermentation)**: None - **Three Stars (Clearer Bullish/Bearish Trend and Investment Opportunities)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **White Star (Balanced Trend and Poor Operability, Observe)**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policy, trade relations, and supply - demand. In the face of uncertainties in tariff and weather issues, the market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention to relevant factors is required [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans show a volatile and slightly strong rebound. Spot prices are relatively stable, and today's tender procurement had zero transactions. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may cause short - term waterlogging. For imported soybeans, in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, and there will be high - temperature days in the central and southeastern regions. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is about to end, and China's soybean procurement decision is a market focus. Domestically, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory is increasing. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the soybean meal market will be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of domestic palm oil and soybean oil show position reduction and price adjustment. Currently, major domestic industrial products are rising strongly, but palm oil does not follow. The palm oil futures main contract price is near the previous high, with position reduction. In the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, high temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports decreased in July 1 - 20. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's fourth - quarter production reduction cycle, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is strong and rapeseed oil is weak. The stagnant rise and decline of overseas oilseeds and oils are mainly reflected in the oil market. The peak season of aquatic feed demand is coming, and the consumption of East China granular meal has improved. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is low, supporting the short - term rapeseed meal price. The uncertainty of rapeseed imports remains, and there are variables in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term strategy for rapeseed products is to observe, focusing on weather and trade negotiations [6] Corn - Today, Sinograin held an imported corn sales auction with 198,558 tons, and the transaction rate was 27%. As of the week ending July 20, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, in line with expectations. The US corn is growing well. Currently, the domestic corn market has few contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market continues the upward trend of the January contract leading the rise. The far - month contracts are stronger than the near - month ones. The rise is driven by policy expectations. The spot market is weak. The long - term supply indicators show sufficient potential supply. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [8] Eggs - Egg futures increased positions and slightly declined today. Spot prices are stable in some areas and rising in others. The spot price is in the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage egg release. The off - season contracts are affected by insufficient old - hen culling and high production capacity. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]

Report on the Cotton Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately strong range, while they will face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Cotton 2509 price is 14,270 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; Cotton 2601 is 13,965 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; ICE US cotton main contract is 68.76 cents/pound, down 0.12% [1]. - Cotton 9 - 1 spread is 305 yuan/ton, up 5.17%; Main contract open interest is 580,773, down 1.16%; Warehouse receipts are 9,532, down 0.55%; Valid forecasts remain unchanged at 223 [1]. Spot Market - Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15,424 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; CC Index: 3128B is 15,508 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; FC Index: M: 1% is 13,815 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - 3128B - 01 contract spread is 1,154 yuan/ton, up 8.26%; 3128B - 05 contract spread is 1,459 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; CC Index: 3128B - FC Index: M: 1% spread is 1,693 yuan/ton, up 7.56% [1]. Industry Situation - Northern inventory is 282.98 tons, down 9.5%; Industrial inventory is 90.30 tons, down 2.9%; Import volume is 3.00 tons, down 25.0%; Bonded area inventory is 33.60 tons, down 8.9% [1]. - Textile industry inventory year - on - year is 1.90, down 48.6%; Yarn inventory days are 27.23 days, up 14.1%; Grey cloth inventory days are 36.61 days, up 3.2%; Cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 tons, up 22.6% [1]. - Spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit is - 2,318.80 yuan/ton, down 5.9%; Retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats and knitted textiles are 127.54 billion yuan, up 4.1% [1]. - Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products are 12.048 billion US dollars, down 4.6%; Exports of clothing and clothing accessories are 15.267 billion US dollars, up 12.4% [1]. Report on the Sugar Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the bottom of the raw sugar price may appear, but considering the production increase pattern, it should be treated with a bearish view. The domestic sugar market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Sugar 2601 price is 5,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; Sugar 2509 is 5,826 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.79 cents/pound, up 0.24% [4]. - Sugar 1 - 9 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 1.73%; Main contract open interest is 329,588, up 2.43%; Warehouse receipts are 21,477, down 1.74%; Valid forecasts are 0 [4]. Spot Market - Nanning price is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; Kunming price is 5,905 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [4]. - Nanning county spread is 224 yuan/ton, up 0.90%; Kunming spread is 79 yuan/ton, up 51.92% [4]. - Imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; Imported Brazilian sugar (out - quota) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [4]. Industry Situation - National cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 12.03%; National cumulative sugar sales are 8.1138 million tons, up 23.07% [4]. - Guangxi cumulative sugar production is 6.465 million tons, up 4.59%; Guangxi monthly sugar sales are 510,000 tons, down 3.26% [4]. - National cumulative sugar sales ratio is 72.59%, up 9.70%; Guangxi cumulative sugar sales ratio is 71.85%, up 8.11% [4]. - National industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 9.56%; Guangxi industrial sugar inventory is 1.8197 million tons, down 12.23% [4]. Report on the Egg Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, as demand is the dominant factor, but sufficient supply and high - temperature weather may suppress the price increase [8]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Egg 09 contract price is 3,595 yuan/500KG, unchanged; Egg 08 contract is 3,520 yuan/500KG, up 1.68% [7]. - Basis is - 594 yuan/500KG, up 19.47%; 9 - 8 spread is 75 yuan/500KG, down 43.61% [7]. Spot Market - Egg producing area price is 3.00 yuan/jin, up 5.03% [7]. Industry Situation - Egg chick price is 3.88 yuan/feather, down 0.51%; Culled chicken price is 4.60 yuan/jin, up 4.35% [7]. - Egg - feed ratio is 2.11, down 3.65%; Breeding profit is - 41.50 yuan/feather, down 13.05% [7]. Report on the Oil Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View Palm oil is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. Short - term, soybean oil still has some room to rise, and the forward basis quote is supported [11]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Soybean oil: Y2509 price is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; Basis is 190 yuan/ton, down 12.84%; Warehouse receipts are 22,118, down 0.06% [11]. - Palm oil: P2509 price is 8,964 yuan/ton, up 1.91%; Basis is 6 yuan/ton, up 123.08%; Warehouse receipts are 854, unchanged [11]. - Rapeseed oil: O1509 price is 9,440 yuan/ton, up 1.55%; Basis is 74 yuan/ton, down 38.33%; Warehouse receipts are 3,487, down 2 [11]. Spread - Soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 42 yuan/ton, unchanged; Palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 32 yuan/ton, up 60.00%; Rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 77 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [11]. - Soybean - palm oil spread (spot) is - 620 yuan/ton, down 29.17%; Soybean - palm oil spread (2509) is - 804 yuan/ton, down 11.05% [11]. - Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (spot) is 1,310 yuan/ton, up 3.15%; Rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2509) is 1,426 yuan/ton, up 4.24% [11]. Report on the Meal Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term may have further upward space, and cautious and bullish operations are recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Soybean meal: M2509 price is 3,056 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; Basis is - 166 yuan/ton, up 1.78%; Warehouse receipts are 41,839, down 0.0% [13]. - Rapeseed meal: RM2509 price is 2,722 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; Basis is - 101 yuan/ton, up 7.34%; Warehouse receipts are 434, down 33.02% [13]. - Soybean: Bean 1 main contract price is 4,189 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; Basis is - 229 yuan/ton, up 4.58%; Warehouse receipts are 15,274, down 0.09% [13]. - Bean 2 main contract price is 3,726 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Basis is - 66 yuan/ton, down 164.00% [13]. Spread - Soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is - 22 yuan/ton, up 12.00%; Rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 328 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [13]. - Oil - meal ratio (spot) is 2.89, down 0.32%; Oil - meal ratio (main contract) is 2.67, up 0.20% [13]. - Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (spot) is 269 yuan/ton, up 7.60%; Soybean - rapeseed meal spread (2509) is 334 yuan/ton, up 7.74% [13]. Report on the Corn Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, the market's weak sentiment is released, and the futures price is slightly stronger but with limited space. Attention should be paid to policy auctions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Corn 2509 price is 2,314 yuan/ton, up 0.78%; Basis is 36 yuan/ton, down 18.18%; 9 - 1 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 25.00% [15]. - Long - term position is 1,747,516, up 1.71%; Warehouse receipts are 178,283, down 3.62% [15]. Spot Market - Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; Shekou bulk grain price is 2,430 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. - North - south trade profit is - 1 yuan/ton, down 111.11%; Import profit is 440 yuan/ton, down 16.68% [15]. Industry Situation - Shandong deep - processing early - morning remaining vehicles are 288, up 80.00% [15]. Corn Starch - Corn starch 2509 price is 2,658 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; Basis is 22 yuan/ton, down 35.29%; 9 - 1 spread is 41 yuan/ton, up 13.89% [15]. - Starch - corn futures spread is 344 yuan/ton, down 1.71%; Shandong starch profit is - 141 yuan/ton, down 2.17% [15]. - Long - term position is 344,422, down 1.60%; Warehouse receipts are 12,334, down 5.80% [15]. Report on the Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure above the 09 futures contract is continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14,500 [19]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Main contract basis is 265, down 32.05%; Pig 2511 price is 13,635 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Pig 2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton, up 0.53% [18]. - 9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, down 4.76%; Main contract open interest is 63,659, down 1.78%; Warehouse receipts are 284 [18]. Spot Market - Henan price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50.0; Shandong price is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Sichuan price is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100.0 [18]. - Liaoning price is 14,150 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Guangdong price is 15,540 yuan/ton, down 300.0; Hunan price is 13,960 yuan/ton, down 100.0; Hebei price is 14,400 yuan/ton, down 100.0 [18]. Industry Situation - Sample slaughter volume per day is 131,632 heads, down 0.73%; Weekly white - strip price is 20.84 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - Weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; Weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged [18]. - Weekly slaughter weight is 128.83 kg, down 0.16%; Weekly self - breeding profit is 91 yuan/head, down 32.11%; Weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 19 yuan/head, down 159.05% [18]. - Monthly fertile sow inventory is 4,042 million heads, up 0.10% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales, Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, and the adjustment of Malaysia's palm oil reference price and export tax [1] - It also provides spot price data for various oilseeds and oils [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending July 10, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 801,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased by 271,900 tons, down 46% from the previous week and 39% from the four - week average. Next - market - year sales net increased by 529,600 tons. Export shipments were 276,400 tons, down 30% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 300,600 tons and 529,800 tons respectively [1] - For the week ending July 10, U.S. soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 530,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased by 356,500 tons, up 72% from the previous week and 86% from the four - week average. Next - market - year sales net increased by 174,000 tons. Export shipments were 343,200 tons, up 17% from the previous week and 26% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 410,400 tons and 179,800 tons respectively [1] - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean exports from 108.2 million tons to 109 million tons, maintained the production forecast at 169.7 million tons, and increased the crushing volume forecast from 57.5 million tons to 57.8 million tons. The biodiesel blending ratio increase boosted the processing outlook. The forecast for soybean meal exports was maintained at 23.6 million tons, soybean oil exports were revised down from 1.4 million tons to 1.35 million tons, soybean oil production was raised from 11.45 million tons to 11.6 million tons, and soybean meal production was revised up to 44.5 million tons from 44.1 million tons [1] - Malaysia raised its August reference price for crude palm oil, increasing the export tax to 9%. The August reference price is 3,864.12 Malaysian ringgit ($910.28) per ton, compared with 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit in July with an 8.5% export tax [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 11 to July 17, 2025 are provided [2] Others - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed and oil futures price spreads is mentioned but no specific data is presented [3][6][7]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-17 苹果库存交易稳定，陈枣供应依旧充足 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7840元/吨，较前一日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.28%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+60，较前一日变动+22；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1760，较前一日变动+22。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情整体维持稳淡运行，近期西部个别产区走货略好转，货源剩余不多，山东客商拿货 仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。西部部分冷库水烂点货源面积扩大，部分持货商开始存急售心理，部分现货商发自存货 源，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、华硕、秦阳为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。山东产区仍以发 市场为主，价格小幅松动后走货依旧不快。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70# 起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上 统货2.8-3. ...

Research Views Corn - On Wednesday, the September corn contract first rose and then fell, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through the support level and declined rapidly, with the futures price significantly lower than the spot price. This attracted buying at the beginning of the week, driving the futures price up, but the rebound was limited, and the price was weak. The import corn auction on Tuesday had a negative impact on the market, with the futures market showing low - level fluctuations and the spot price also being average. Northeast deep - processing factories continued to lower their corn purchase prices, while the price in North China remained stable. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing factories decreased, and some enterprises' prices rebounded slightly. In the sales area, the corn price continued to fall. The futures price had been falling for many days, and the import corn auction had an average transaction rate, leading to faster sales by traders, but the downstream's purchasing attitude was lukewarm. Feed mills mainly used wheat, and corn was only for rigid - demand restocking. Technically, the September contract price was under pressure at the 2300 - yuan integer mark and was expected to continue to decline [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to hopes of increased US export demand. The US Department of Agriculture announced a 120,000 - ton large - order sale and a 219,000 - ton export to Mexico last Friday. The market was optimistic about the export sales report to be released on Thursday. On the 15th, the US and Indonesia reached an agreement where Indonesia promised to buy $15 billion worth of US energy products, $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft. Domestically, soybean meal fluctuated with a decreasing price volatility. Oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but the terminal's inquiry intention was low, mainly for short - term rigid - demand purchases, and the inventory of soybean meal was accumulating rapidly. Some factories suspended spot quotations or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market closely watched the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading idea was a slightly bullish oscillation, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads of soybean meal should be held [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose following the uptrend of the surrounding markets. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.29% - 6.2% month - on - month. SPPOMA data indicated that from July 1 - 15, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06%. The increase in production and slowdown in exports limited the rise of palm oil. Domestically, the oil market continued to show a differentiated trend. The decline in the outer - market oil price brought pressure and led to long - position profit - taking. The phenomenon of urgent delivery of soybean oil was still serious, and the inventory was accumulating. The palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, while the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. However, the recent improvement in the rapeseed crushing profit on the futures market limited the rapeseed oil price. The oils mainly oscillated, and single - side intraday trading was recommended, with the 9 - 1 positive spreads held [1]. Egg - On Wednesday, the main egg 2509 contract oscillated weakly, closing down 0.66% at 3591 yuan per 500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price was 2.72 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan per catty from the previous day. In the production area, the prices in some places were flat, and in the sales area, some prices were stable while some increased. After the plum - rain season, eggs would gradually enter the peak - demand season, but considering the supply - side pressure, the price peak was expected to be lower than last year. In the short term, the futures price would continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the impact of the egg's supply - demand structure and feed - raw material prices on the futures price [1][2]. Pig - On Wednesday, the main pig 2509 contract oscillated weakly during the session and declined from the phased high, closing down 1.68% at 14,010 yuan per ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the national average daily pig price was 14.42 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, and the price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was also down. The breeding end had a certain enthusiasm for selling, but the downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were making losses. Under the situation of oversupply, the pig price continued to decline. The futures price adjusted from the high due to the falling spot price. Considering the current fundamentals, there was no obvious change. With supply pressure and policy support, the pig price was expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. Market Information - Ukraine's parliament passed a bill on Wednesday to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, which would harm the interests of small farmers and producers. Ukraine is an important oil - seed producer and exporter in Europe [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - Russian agricultural consulting agency Sovecon raised its forecast for the 2025 grain total output to 130.5 million tons from the previous 129.5 million tons, and the wheat output forecast was raised to 83.6 million tons from 83 million tons [3]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency announced that the US renewable fuel blending credits in June increased compared to May. The ethanol (D6) blending credits in June were about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credits increased from 602 million gallons in May to 629 million gallons in June [3]. - SPPOMA data showed that from July 1 - 15, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil - extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the output increased by 17.06% [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presented contract spreads such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, egg 9 - 1, and pig 9 - 1, but no specific data analysis was provided [5][6][8]. Contract Basis - The report also presented contract basis such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, egg, and pig, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][20].