热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： 周四，CBOT大豆波动不大，因美豆出口数据低迷以及部分机构小幅下调巴西大豆产量预估。美国农业 部公布，民间出口商报告向中国出售了26.4万吨大豆，向未知目的地出售18.6万吨玉米和22.6万吨大 豆，均于2025/2026年度交付。本周向中国已经累计大单销售40万吨，向未知地累计大单通报38.5万 吨，均为25/26年度付运。不过，出口销售数据低迷。截至上周，2025/2026年度大豆出口净销售为69.6 万吨，前一周为51.1万吨，低于去年同期。国内方面，蛋白粕继续反弹，近强远弱格局凸显。豆粕涨幅 超过菜粕。市场有消息称海关将延长进口大豆通关时间，引发了市场对大豆类产品将加速去库存的预 期，进而带动豆粕价格上涨。策略上，短线为主。 油脂： 周四，BMD棕榈油小幅上涨，跟随周边走强。高频数据显示，马棕油12月1-10日出口量环比减少15%， 但同期单产环比上月同期增加7.24%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.07%，产量环比上月同期增加6.87%。 减产预期的下降引发了市场担忧，限制了马棕价格涨幅。美豆油下挫，跟随原油走低，此外，生物柴油 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月11日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨0.23%报1093.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨0.56%报446.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨0.94%报 534.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米主力 2603 合约在 20 日均线支撑处企稳反弹，期价上行基本收复前日 跌幅，长期趋势线对价格提供支撑。现货市场方面，受期价下跌拖累，产区现货 | 震荡 | | | 玉米收购报价下调。今日华北地区深加工企业玉米价格稳中偏弱运行，基层价格 | | | | 基本维持稳定。随着期货价格出现下跌和政策性拍卖消息的发酵，市场看涨预期 | | | | 有所收敛，贸易商出货积极性增强，今日山东深加工玉米到货量突破 1000 台， | | | | 部分深加工价格下跌 10-20 元/吨。基层购销活跃度依然不高，粮点收购量较前 | | | | 期有所好转，但依然处于较低的水平。今日销区市场玉米价格继续窄幅下调。北 | | | | 港收购价格下跌，销区港口报价今日跟随下调 10 元/吨。销区下游饲料企业头寸 | | | | 时间拉长后对于市场跌价采购积极性不高，市场成交可小幅议价。技术上，玉米 | | | | 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行遇阻， ...

苹果市场买卖僵持，红枣产区挺价情绪显现 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9510元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，幅度+0.48%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1310，较前一日变动-45；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1110，较前一日变动-45。 近期市场资讯，晚富士库存富士主流行情维持稳定，西部个别产区果农一般货源开始交易，整体出库速度仍不显 快。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，甘肃部分产区果农一般货源开始交易，价格区 间随质量下滑略降低，成交尚可；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，外贸渠道小果走货放缓， 少量维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、 70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆阳出库价格3.8-4.5元/斤不等； 陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4 ...

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low, supported by new export sales, with 136,000 tons sold to China and 119,000 tons to unknown destinations for the 25/26 shipping year [2][9] - The USDA reported a projected October soybean crush of 237 million bushels, exceeding September's 205 million bushels and market expectations of 234.2 million bushels [2][9] - Domestic protein meal is showing weakness, with expectations of lower import costs due to Argentina's tax reduction [2][9] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices fell due to an unexpected increase in November inventory, reported at 2,835,439 tons, a 13.04% month-on-month increase [3][10] - Exports decreased by 28.13% to 1,212,814 tons, while production fell by 5.30% to 1,935,510 tons, contributing to high inventory levels [3][10] - Domestic palm oil prices dropped, following the decline in Malaysian palm oil, with terminal demand remaining weak [3][10] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract faced downward pressure, closing with a long bearish candle, while prices in various regions showed slight increases [5][6] - Black龙江's average price was 11.13 CNY/kg, with slight increases in Jilin and Liaoning, indicating a mixed market response [5][6] - The market is experiencing challenges in external demand, with local consumption limited, but future contracts are showing bullish sentiment [5][6] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures showed mixed performance, with the near-month contract rising by 0.93% to 3,135 CNY per 500 kg, while the far-month contract fell by 0.3% [6][12] - The national average egg price was reported at 3.06 CNY per jin, reflecting a slight increase, with regional prices also showing minor fluctuations [6][12] - Supply improvements are limited, and the market is advised to observe future opportunities based on breeding and culling intentions [6][12] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract stabilized at the 20-day moving average, recovering most of the previous day's losses [7][13] - Spot prices for corn in production areas decreased, with processing prices in Shandong dropping by 10-20 CNY/ton [7][13] - The market is experiencing low trading activity, with expectations for price adjustments in the short term [7][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on the expected difference in the USDA report. Brazil's sowing progress has reached 90%, and there is no obvious driver for weather speculation. The premium is expected to face pressure later, and the 105 is expected to fluctuate weakly. [9][10] - In the short - term, the market should pay attention to the expected difference in the USDA report. With Brazil's sowing progress at 90%, there is no obvious weather - related speculative driver, and the premium is expected to face downward pressure later. [10] Summary by Related Catalog Basis and Spread Data - On December 9, 43% soybean meal spot basis: in Tianjin it was 52, in Rizhao 12, in Zhangjiagang 32, in Dongguan 9, in Zhanjiang 12, and in Fangcheng - 8. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 53. M1 - 5 was 245 with a decrease of 7, and RM1 - 5 was 41 with a decrease of 12. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 650 with an increase of 15. [6][7] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. [9] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. [9] - As of November 26, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago, but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. [10] - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is expected to improve in the next two weeks, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline seasonally. There is uncertainty about the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to the reserve release. [10] Demand Situation - The high inventory of livestock and poultry products and the slow de - stocking of production capacity support feed demand. However, the current pig farming is in a loss, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. [10] - Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently. [10] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels. The de - stocking of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased this week. [10]

2025年12月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空出尽反应 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：USDA报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251210 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空出尽反应 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.67% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.74% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,648 8,190 | -0.49% | 8,712 7,998 | -2.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间12月9日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，原糖期货跌 1.08%报14.66美分/磅，棉花期货涨0.30%报63.87美分/磅，可可期货涨3.09%报5877.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货涨0.38%报367.60美分/磅。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external market of US soybeans focuses on whether the 53 bushels per acre yield in the December supply and demand report has a continued downward trend. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans, but as of now, China has only completed less than 40% of the purchase, and the completion date may be postponed. It's necessary to consider whether the annual balance sheet of US soybeans can maintain stable export demand. If the inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear unilateral driving force and will follow the US market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases and the scale of state reserve releases will determine the domestic supply in the first quarter [1]. - Rapeseed meal is in a state of both weak supply and demand. The current rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of supply recovery, the rapeseed meal market is weak. Moreover, it is currently the off - season for aquatic consumption, so the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to increase in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market of US soybeans has uncertainties in supply (potential yield reduction) and demand (China's slow purchase pace). The domestic soybean meal market lacks a clear driving force and is affected by China's purchase of US soybeans and state reserve releases [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Although the current inventory is low, the expected supply recovery and weak demand in the off - season lead to an expected increase in inventory [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market trend is weak and declining [19]. - **Price Range**: The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 3200. After the contract switch, M2603 and M2605 may reach previous low levels [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or exit the previously sold 3300 call options on M2601; reduce the position of the previously sold 2600 call options on rapeseed meal 2601 as the option approaches expiration; consider short - selling M2603 and M2605 [19]. 1.2.1 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: In the previous period, the basis operation could be considered around 170 - 150 for M1 - 5. In the absence of a basis purchase, consider one - time price purchases during the downward cycle [20]. - **Spread Strategy**: Previously, the M1 - 5 spread was considered to stop falling around 170, and a positive spread trading idea should be maintained before downstream contract roll - over [20]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal 2601 and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is around (650, 700) [20]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 8.5% and a historical percentile of 3.1% in the past 3 years. The price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 0.9% in the past 3 years [22]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Traders**: Short 25% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2900 to hedge the risk of inventory value decline [22]. - **Feed Mills**: Long 50% of the M2605 contract at 2700 - 2750 to lock in the purchase cost [22]. - **Oil Mills**: Short 50% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2950 to lock in profits and offset production costs [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. The price of CBOT soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [23]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed various changes. The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian showed different trends [23]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans decreased, and the pressing profits of US and Brazilian soybeans also changed. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed also showed certain fluctuations [24]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government will announce a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan. As of December 4, the sowing of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 94% complete. China's state - owned grain reserve company COFCO will auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: The US soybean exports to China decreased compared with the same period in previous years. The net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased [29]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a short - term basis [30]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: Domestic weekly inventory data, USDA export sales report. - Tuesday: USDA export inspection report, Brazil Secex weekly report. - Wednesday: CFTC agricultural product position report, USDA monthly supply and demand report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position [35]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The domestic soybean meal market followed the external market and declined. The rapeseed meal market also declined due to the news of Australian rapeseed imports [34]. - **Capital Flow**: Key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduced long positions and increased short positions. The market sentiment index was average according to the soybean meal option PCR [34]. - **Spread Structure**: The spread between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is mainly related to the seasonal supply. This week, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened due to the decline of the May contract [40]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal remained stable, while the basis of rapeseed meal declined. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased. The far - month basis is expected to remain stable, and the spread is expected to maintain a positive spread [45]. - **External Market**: - **External Trend**: The external market declined due to China's slow purchase pace, the US crop subsidy policy, and the exit of long - position funds before the USDA report [56]. - **Capital Position**: The CFTC data is lagging and has no reference value. It is expected to return to normal progress in January [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Regional Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in the US soybean - producing area decreased slightly, while the profit in the Brazilian and Argentine producing areas increased. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [68]. 4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - Recently, US soybeans declined, and the domestic market followed suit. The news of state reserve releases led to a greater decline in the domestic market, and the profit of purchasing ships decreased [72]. - Regarding supply and ship - purchasing, the sentiment for purchasing Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases will be carried out through state reserve rotation. The purchase of rapeseed is expected to remain cautious due to the import margin factor [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: The US soybean production in November is expected to be 4.3 billion bushels, a decrease of 48 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly due to the decline in yield. The export volume is expected to be 1.64 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the previous forecast. The pressing volume remains unchanged, and the ending inventory is expected to decline slightly. The average seasonal price is expected to increase by $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel [95][96][97]. - **Global**: In the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand forecast for November, the beginning inventory and production decreased, the pressing volume decreased by 1.7 million tons, the export volume increased by 200,000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 2 million tons [98][99][100]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - **Soybean Import**: The purchase sentiment of Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases are mainly through state reserve rotation. The expected arrival volume of soybeans in December is 7.5 million tons, 6 million tons in January, and 5 million tons in February. The rapeseed import remains at a low level [101]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The domestic soybean pressing volume is expected to remain high, but the domestic soybean meal consumption is difficult to increase significantly after the previous high - level stocking [103]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter and stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory is also expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [105].