Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Apple: The new - season Fuji apple's storage work has started. Due to continuous rainfall, the storage volume is expected to be lower than last year. The market shows a "two - tiered" pattern, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm in the short term, and the storage volume and structure being key factors for future market trends [3][4] - Red dates: As red dates are about to be harvested, the futures prices have dropped significantly, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and actual yields [8] Summary by Sections Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9104 yuan/ton, a change of - 134 yuan/ton or - 1.45% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP01 - 1604 for Qixia and AP01 - 804 for Luochuan both changed + 134 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The storage work in late Fuji producing areas continues. In Shandong, the ground transactions are increasing, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm. In Shaanxi, the storage work is gradually starting, and in Gansu, it is almost finished. The prices vary by quality, and the market is expected to remain "two - tiered" in the short term. The storage progress has slightly accelerated [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and declined yesterday. The ground transactions are entering the later stage, with a "two - tiered" market pattern. High - quality goods prices are expected to remain stable and firm. The storage work in the west is slow, while in Shandong, it is concentrated after the Frost's Descent and also slow [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Due to continuous rainfall, the expected storage volume in November is lower than last year [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10280 yuan/ton, a change of + 135 yuan/ton or + 1.33% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 880 changed - 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In Xinjiang, the purchase progress varies by region. Some areas have basically completed the purchase, while others are still in progress. The purchase price is based on quality. In the Hebei market, the price has slightly decreased, and the market mainly trades old goods. In the Guangdong market, the price is stable [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose significantly yesterday. The purchase in Xinjiang is at a critical stage. The downstream market has weak demand, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has decreased. The price in the Hebei market has slightly declined [7] Strategy - Neutral. With red dates about to be harvested, the futures price has dropped significantly, and attention should be paid to purchase price changes and actual yields [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-04 现货价格提涨，豆粕偏强震荡 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3026元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.17%；菜粕2601合约2491元/吨，较前 日变动+103元/吨，幅度+4.31%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动+50元/吨，现货基差 M01+44，较前日变动+45；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M01-36，较前日变动+15； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-36，较前日变动+5。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2680元/吨，较前日变动+80元/吨，现货基差RM01+189，较前日变动-23。 近期市场资讯，10月31日，据巴西马托格罗索州农业经济研究所的数据显示，马托格罗索州2025/26作物年度大豆 播种面积已达预估面积的76.13%，较上周增长16.08个百分点。 市场分析 当前美国顺利收割，南美播种也较为顺利，供应端整体较为宽松也给到了价格上方一定的压力。国内方面，大豆 到港量较为充足，大豆及豆粕 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans rose on Monday due to favorable trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the import of US soybeans will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [2][3][5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is suppressed by the unexpectedly high production in Malaysia and Indonesia. If the high production in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time point may come earlier. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. - **Sugar**: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. - **Cotton**: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. - **Pigs**: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22]. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 50 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 3000 yuan/ton. The MYSTEEL statistics show that the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.06 days to 8.02 days last week. The port soybean inventory decreased slightly but remained above 9 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills rose to over 1.15 million tons. The MYSTEEL predicts that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost fluctuates mainly. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure, but there is some support as it gradually enters the de - stocking season. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, but in the medium - term, it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [5]. Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 30 increased compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased compared with the same period last month. The import volume of edible oil in India in October decreased compared with the previous month. On Monday, the domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil rebounding rapidly and palm oil still constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the January contract was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories remained unchanged. The UNICA data shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased in the first half of October [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tightening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures, but the external market is still weak. It is advisable to look for opportunities to short after the rebound weakens [14]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. As of the week ending October 31, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, and the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expectation of a bountiful harvest in the new year, and the upward space for cotton prices is relatively limited in the short - term [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or declined yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped slightly to 2.84 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the market demand is average, and the downstream purchases on demand. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable with a small decline today [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of a decline in inventory due to low replenishment and high culling, combined with the increasing enthusiasm for stockpiling after the temperature drops, has broken the downward spiral of egg prices. It is expected to be mainly in a strong consolidation in the short - term, and the medium - term focus is on the upper pressure [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangxi decreased. The slaughter of breeding groups gradually recovered, and the number of pigs sold by individual farmers increased. The downstream slaughterhouses' procurement difficulty decreased, and the pork product sales were average. It is expected that the pig price will continue to decline slightly today [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is under high supply pressure, and the futures price has independently reflected the future supply pressure. The overall idea is to sell on rallies, but due to the high position in the futures market, cautious investors can use reverse spread positions instead [22].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated November 3, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of driving factors, focus on lower support [2] - Soybean oil: With the rebound of US soybeans, maintaining the strategy of expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2] - Soybean meal: US soybeans hit a new high, Dalian soybean meal may follow with a relatively strong oscillation [2] - Soybean: May oscillate strongly [2] - Corn: Will run in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Mainly in range consolidation [2] - Cotton: The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures is weakening [2] - Eggs: Will undergo oscillatory adjustment [2] - Hogs: The central price may further decline [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 8,764 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, and night - closing price was 8,654 yuan/ton with a - 1.26% change. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,128 yuan/ton with a - 0.49% change, and night - closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased compared to the previous month. Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil slightly higher than October, with the export tax remaining unchanged. The USDA will release major agricultural reports in November. [5][6][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3021 yuan/ton with a + 1.34% change, and night - closing price was 3024 yuan/ton with a + 0.63% change. DCE soybean 2601's daily - closing price was 4102 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change, and night - closing price was 4100 yuan/ton with a + 0.12% change. [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 31, CBOT soybean prices rose to a 15 - month high due to China's purchase of US soybeans. [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of + 1 [15] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - closing price was 2,105 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change, and night - closing price was 2,119 yuan/ton with a 0.67% change. C2601's daily - closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton with a 0.80% change, and night - closing price was 2,127 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in North China mostly rising and those in Guangdong showing a stable - to - downward trend. [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.42 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5483 yuan/ton. [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production in late September increased year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September increased. Forecasts for the 25/26 sugar - making season show a supply shortage globally. [20][22] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - closing price was 13,595 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change, and night - closing price was 13555 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. CY2601's daily - closing price was 19,875 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - closing price was 19810 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. [25] - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot market had a cold trading volume, and the cotton - ginning factory's acquisition was nearing completion. The ICE cotton futures rose slightly last Friday. [26] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [28] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2512's closing price was 3,146 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,466 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.07% change. [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12530 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Hogs 2601 was 11815 yuan/ton. [33] - **Market Information**: New delivery warehouses were added, and the national feed output in September increased. [35] - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton, and PK601's closing price was 7,812 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change. [36] - **Spot Market Focus**: Different peanut oil factories had different purchase prices and arrival volumes, and some contracts were suspended. [37][38] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [41]

Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price showed a weak and volatile performance. New grain listings increased in the spot market, and the supply pressure in Jilin was transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. Prices in different regions of North China were differentiated, and prices in the sales areas were generally weak. The corn main 2601 contract rebounded under pressure, and there was a long - term bearish expectation [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans hit a 15 - month high on Thursday. After the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, there were expectations of increased demand. Domestic soybean meal followed the upward trend of the external market, but the market trading was sluggish. The strategy was to think in a slightly bullish and volatile way [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rebounded after four consecutive days of decline. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expected the 2025 palm oil production to increase by 10% year - on - year to 56 million tons. In August, Indonesia's inventory decreased by 1% to 2.54 million tons. Domestically, palm oil declined more than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Short - term participation was recommended, waiting for long - position entry opportunities [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted on Thursday, with the main 2512 contract slightly down 0.25%. The spot prices were mostly stable, with individual fluctuations. The short - term supply pressure and supply improvement were in a game, and the rebound height was expected to be limited [1]. - Pigs: The main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a long negative line on Thursday, and the futures price returned to the shock mode. The spot prices in production and sales areas were running strongly, but the price increases in Shandong and Hebei slowed down. Although it was expected that the prices of live pigs and pork would stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure still loomed over the market, and the futures price was expected to resume a slow decline after the rebound ended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 2% on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points earlier [3]. - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year [3]. - The estimated soybean production in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast [3]. - China made its first soybean purchase from the US in this harvesting season [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: There were charts showing the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][6][10][14]. - **Contract Basis**: There were charts showing the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][16][17][22]. 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262 [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures trading experience and multiple awards. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637 [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544 [26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal and corn markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamentals of soybean meal have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are still at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focus should be on the Sino - US negotiations and the sowing situation of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For corn, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low due to the previous decline in the price of corn at the northern ports, but it has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of spoiled grain has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling damp grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the channel inventory, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise inventory, and feed enterprise inventory are all at a low level, but the stocking willingness is low [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2994 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.84% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.18% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 16, down 25 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 54, down 15 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 44, down 15 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 209, up 2 from the previous day [1] - Argentina: As of the week of October 22, Argentine farmers sold 264,800 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 3.83441 million tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 224,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 40,000 tons. They also sold 843,600 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 407,350 tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 816,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 26,800 tons [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2419 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 19, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 131, up 8 from the previous day [3] - Brazil: As of last Saturday, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily on October 31, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - New - season corn harvest is nearing completion in October, with grain sales and circulation peaking. After the concentrated listing in October, the bottom of corn prices is emerging, and the current price is in a consolidation phase with limited upward and downward driving forces [2] - Corn prices in major producing areas remained stable yesterday. In the Northeast, state - reserve purchases signaled price support, curbing the selling sentiment of upstream suppliers and weakening the downward price momentum, while downstream buyers were more active. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, prices were also stable. As the low - quality grain affected by precipitation was gradually sold, the price of high - quality corn remained firm. In the sales areas, arrivals increased, but downstream buyers were cautious, mostly purchasing as needed with weak short - term inventory - building intentions, providing limited price support [2] - On Thursday, the corn futures market oscillated weakly. The main 01 contract closed at 2111 yuan, with slightly increased trading volume and open interest, and 63,966 registered warrants. The starch futures market also weakened, with the main 01 contract closing at 2419 yuan [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The first peak of new - season corn listing has passed, and prices are stabilizing [6] - State - reserve purchases in the Northeast have significantly supported prices, limiting price declines [6] - The reduction of high - quality corn in North China will gradually become apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level. Attention should also be paid to whether the news of the wheat directional auction in November will affect corn prices [3] - The supply level remains high in the fourth quarter, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] - Sino - US negotiations have achieved good progress, and relevant national departments have confirmed that China and the US have reached a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade. Attention should be paid to whether it extends to the corn variety [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Market Data Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.82% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.92% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [4] Spot Price and Basis - In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 19 yuan (down 5 yuan). In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong is 2740 yuan (unchanged), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract is 321 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Futures Price - For corn futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2101 to 2103 yuan (up 2 yuan, 0.10%), the 01 - contract from 2116 to 2111 yuan (down 5 yuan, - 0.24%), the 03 - contract from 2145 to 2141 yuan (down 4 yuan, - 0.19%), the 05 - contract from 2221 to 2213 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.36%), the 07 - contract from 2244 to 2238 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.27%), and the 09 - contract remained at 2247 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2438 to 2431 yuan (down 7 yuan, - 0.29%), the 01 - contract from 2427 to 2419 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.33%), the 03 - contract from 2438 to 2429 yuan (down 9 yuan, - 0.37%), the 05 - contract from 2540 to 2530 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), the 07 - contract from 2558 to 2548 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), and the 09 - contract from 2590 to 2584 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.23%). The average wheat price rose from 2500 to 2504 yuan (up 4 yuan, 0.16%) [7] US Corn Market - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract was 429.5 (down 5, - 1.15%), COBT soybean main - continuous contract was 1107 (up 13.75, 1.26%), CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was 524.25 (down 9.25, - 1.73%). The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2154.54 yuan (up 5.9, 0.27%) with an import profit of 95.46 yuan, and the duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 2032.78 yuan (up 5.91, 0.29%) with an import profit of 217.22 yuan [30]

Group 1: Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: The rating is "Oscillating Downward" [1] - Soybean Meal: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Oils and Fats: The rating is "Declining" [1] - Eggs: The rating is "Oscillating" [1] - Pigs: The rating is "Oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn: On Wednesday, the main corn 2601 contract closed with a small negative line after opening flat, showing an oscillating performance. The supply of new grain in the spot market has increased, and the supply pressure of corn in Jilin has been transmitted to the ports, causing the prices at northern ports to decline under pressure. The prices in North China are running steadily with a slight upward trend. The prices in the sales areas are mainly weak. The downstream feed enterprises are mostly waiting and watching, and the port traders are actively selling. Technically, the main 2601 contract is under pressure to rebound, and the long - term outlook is bearish [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans remained flat. The market is optimistic about the demand outlook and is concerned about the trade situation and the US government shutdown. Domestically, soybean meal is oscillating narrowly, and the funds are cautious. There are many rumors about US soybean purchases, and the results of the Sino - US leaders' talks should be closely watched. The spot price of soybean meal has followed the increase, but the market trading is sluggish [1]. - Oils and Fats: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell for the fourth consecutive day and the second consecutive month, following the decline of the surrounding markets. The expected over - production in Indonesia has also depressed the market. Domestically, palm oil continued to decline and stopped falling at night. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US and Indonesian biodiesel policies and the tariff adjustments between the US and Malaysia [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to rebound, with the main 2512 contract rising 2.13%. The spot price of eggs continued to decline slightly. There is a game between short - term supply pressure and supply improvement, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. The future egg price trend depends on the changes in the farmers' willingness to replenish and cull the flocks [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the main 2601 contract of live pigs closed with a small positive line close to a doji, and the futures price was blocked from rising and moved down in the range. The spot prices in production and sales areas are running strongly, but the price increase in Shandong and Hebei has slowed down. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects the prices of live pigs and pork to stop falling and rebound in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous policy of controlling the breeding sows and reducing the inventory and the supply pressure, it is expected that the futures price will return to a slow decline after the rebound [2]. Group 3: Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The planting area is expected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year [3]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there seems to be a change. There is a possibility of a compromise on the temporary appropriation bill next week [3]. - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may resume the strike next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with the employers [3]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - China has made its first purchase of US soybeans this harvest season, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has not given a specific comment [4]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The spreads include those of corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, soybeans 1 - 5, soybean meal 1 - 5, soybean oil 1 - 5, palm oil 1 - 5, eggs 1 - 5, and live pigs 1 - 5 [6][7][11][15] 4.2 Contract Basis - The basis includes those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][17][18][23] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won many awards and has rich experience in leading the team [27]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and has been interviewed by many media [27].