农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力延续，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 豆粕库存出现明显下滑，但仍维持百万吨以上，高于去年同期，叠加近期进口大豆拍卖情况良好，使得国内近期 供应较为宽松。综合来看，巴西大豆丰产预期进一步加巩固，未来供应压力延续，仍需重点关注南美大豆收获情 况以及美豆出口情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美天气情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2603合约2280元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.04%；玉米淀粉2603合约2550元/吨，较 前日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.20%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C03+65，较前日变动+1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2630元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CS03+80，较前 日变动+15。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2736元/吨，较前日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.33%；菜粕2605合约2229元/吨，较前 日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.36%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+42 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4338 | +16（+0.37%） | 4295 | -32 （-0.74%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2736 | +8（+0.29%） | 2728 | +2 （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） 1053 | -3.25（-0.31%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） 291.5 | +1.6（+0.55%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3085～3130， 较昨-20至持平； | 现货M2605+390/+420， | 持平或+10； 2月 | | | M2605+370/+400， | 持平； | ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 FIR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月21日 王法庭 Z0019938 | | | | | 田洞 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 江苏均价 8560 8540 20 0.23% | | | | | Y2605 8032 7996 36 0.45% 期价 | | | | | 星差 Y2605 528 544 -16 -2.94% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+530 -10 - | | | | | 27485 -1.82% 仓单 26985 -500 | | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | | 1月20日 1月19日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 广东24度 8800 8700 100 1.15% | | | | | 期价 P2605 8748 8648 100 1.16% | | | | | 墓差 P2605 52 52 0 0.00% | | | | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 0 ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 | 2 | | 玉米：有所回调 | 4 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260121 | 6 | | 鸡蛋：情绪转弱 | 8 | | 生猪：现货转弱，旺季预期降低 | 9 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4338 +16（+0.37%） | 42 ...

| | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/14 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 18 | 0 | 379 | 2750 | 2800 | 112 | -50 | | 2026/01/15 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | -5 | 10 | 383 | 2750 | 2800 | 90 | -70 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | 10 | 390 | 2750 | 2800 | 100 | -70 | | 2026/01/19 | 2180 | 2290 | 226 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 F B | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月19日 王凌娃 Z0019938 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 员阳 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 马来棕榈油进口利润 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月16日 1月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 江苏均价 8540 8460 80 0.95% 现价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 期价 Y2605 8016 7938 78 0.98% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基差 Y2605 524 522 2 0.38% | | | | | | | | | | ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.16」 玉米类市场周报 现货市场偏强支撑 玉米期价继续收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收涨。主力2603合约收盘价为2281元/吨，较上周+18元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA月度供需报告显示，2025/26年度美玉米单产从之前的186蒲式耳/英亩上调至 186.5蒲式耳/英亩，产量预估上调至170.21亿蒲式耳，高于分析师预估区间的上沿，报告整体偏 空。也使得美玉米价格大幅回落。国内方面，东北产区基层售粮进度同比偏快，传统售粮窗口期 缩短，但未出现规模性上量，调节性储备玉米尚未落地，中储粮销售等投放持续加码，对市场供 应有所补充，用粮企业利润不佳，持续提价收粮动力不足，仅区域性行情偏强运行。华北黄淮产 区基层种植户惜售心理尚未松动，深加工企业厂门到货量整 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Palm oil prices are under pressure due to Indonesia's policy changes and high inventories, while egg prices are rising due to supply reduction and increased demand. The prices of other products such as pork, soybean meal, cotton, and sugar are also affected by different supply - demand factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are falling. Indonesia canceled the B50 plan and will continue with B40, easing supply concerns. Malaysia's December palm oil inventory reached a nearly seven - year high. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% on March 1, and China's pre - emptive purchases and high domestic inventories also add pressure [2]. - The main 2605 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to close long positions [3][6]. Egg - Egg prices are rising. Due to the continuous culling of old hens and a decrease in the number of newly - laid hens in January, egg production capacity has decreased. The start of Spring Festival stocking and increased purchases by food processing enterprises have led to rising prices [5]. - The main 2603 contract of eggs has broken through the moving average system, with strengthening technical indicators. It is recommended to enter long positions when the price finds support during fluctuations [5]. Pig - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, but the upward trend remains. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the number of pigs slaughtered by large - scale enterprises in January decreased, and the market has a strong mentality of holding back sales. The peak demand season before the Spring Festival supports the price of pigs [7]. - The main 2603 contract of live pigs is still above the moving average. It is recommended to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11850 - 11900 [7]. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal prices are fluctuating downward. China's large imports of soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventories have put pressure on prices [9]. - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal is below the moving average system, with weakening technical indicators. It is recommended to participate in short - selling with a stop - loss [9]. Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating at a high level. Although some long positions are being closed, the market has not reversed. The expected decrease in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, strong demand, and optimistic export expectations support cotton prices [12]. - The main 2605 contract of cotton is fluctuating near the short - term moving average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 14550 - 14620 [12]. Sugar - Sugar prices are fluctuating sideways. The peak of sugar production in southern China has led to sufficient supply, while Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand [14]. - The main 2605 contract of sugar is fluctuating sideways. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position and set a stop - loss at the 40 - day moving average [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal, the short - term decline is due to the USDA's January report increasing the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, which led to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. For rapeseed meal, although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored [1][6]. - **Short - term Adjustment**: For palm oil, the short - term adjustment is because the latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For soybean oil, the short - term rebound is supported by a decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory compared to the previous period, although it is still higher than the five - year average. The pre - holiday stocking led to good domestic spot trading. However, caution is needed when chasing long positions due to the bearish data from the US soybean side [1]. - **Short - term Weak Consolidation**: For rapeseed oil, the short - term weak consolidation is due to the expectation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit and the possible cancellation of oil and meal tariffs, which suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. However, the tight domestic spot situation and strong basis support the market. It is advisable to wait and see before going long on rapeseed oil recently. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting should be monitored [1]. - **Rebound under Pressure**: For cotton, the short - term is expected to rebound under pressure. The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For red dates, the short - term rebound is because although the high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. - **Short - term Rebound**: For live pigs, the short - term rebound is because in the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18]. 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of soybean meal is 2,761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3,219.71 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, 2026, the national port soybean inventory is 802.8 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week; the 125 oil - plant soybean inventory is 713.12 million tons, an increase of 0.40% from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory is 104.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from the previous week [3]. - **Market Situation**: The January USDA report increased the global soybean ending inventory, US soybean area, production, and ending inventory, leading to a fall in US soybean prices and a decline in domestic soybean meal prices. However, short - term adjustment space is limited due to cost and stocking demand [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal is 2,314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2,493.16 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, the coastal area's main oil - plant rapeseed inventory is 6 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, the same as the previous week [6]. - **Market Situation**: Although the January USDA report reduced the global rapeseed production and ending inventory, the upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the expectation of canceling oil and meal tariffs led to a decline in rapeseed meal prices. The outcome of the China - Canada meeting from January 13 - 17th should be monitored. If the negotiation fails, there may be opportunities to go long at low prices [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Volume Data**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil is 8,778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous day. The national average price is 8,828 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The national daily trading volume is 100 tons, the same as the previous day [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 73.6 million tons, an increase of 0.30% from the previous week and 46.85% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The latest announcement from Indonesia that it will not implement the B50 policy in 2026 dampened the market's bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the export and production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month. If the export data is weak, there is a risk of short - term price adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures prices of CF2603, CF2605 (main contract), CF2609, and CF2611 are 14,800, 14,810, 14,930, and 15,035 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The US cotton main - continuous contract is 64.88 cents/pound, down 0.05% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The national cotton commercial inventory is 557.3 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons from the previous period. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory is 468.41 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons [9]. - **Market Situation**: The January USDA data is bullish for the ICE market, and the decline in the US dollar index and the strengthening of external commodities support the cotton market, so the short - term US cotton market is expected to be strong. In China, new cotton processing is basically completed, sales progress has slowed down, and raw material inventory pressure has increased. In the short - term, the weakening support from domestic consumption entering the off - season and textile enterprises' year - end holidays should be noted. In the long - term, there is an expectation of continuous price recovery due to reduced planting and inventory replenishment [1][12]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures prices of CJ2603, CJ2605 (main contract), and CJ2609 are 9,010, 9,130, and 9,320 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. The spot prices of various grades in different regions are basically stable [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, but still 4,470 tons higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The high inventory is a significant pressure on the price rebound, but the short - term bearish trend has slowed down. Against the backdrop of the peak consumption season due to the cold weather, short - term rebound opportunities can be noted. In general, a bearish attitude should be maintained due to the loose supply - demand pattern [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Price and Volume Data**: The futures prices of different contracts such as 1h2603 (main contract), 1h2605, etc. have varying increases. The national average live - pig出栏 price is 12,760 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [15]. - **Inventory and Sales Data**: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory is 3,847.75 (monthly), a decrease of 0.22% from the previous month; the出栏 volume is 1,233.09 million heads, an increase of 3.80%. The national fertile - sow inventory is 3,990 (monthly), a decrease of 1.12% [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the first half of January, the market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, the spot price may rebound due to the entry of secondary fattening. The supply pressure will be postponed until the end of January to February. The next demand peak should be observed before the Spring Festival. For contracts, after the 01 contract enters delivery, attention should be paid to the 03 contract's performance in reflecting the spot price. The 05 contract has a weak supply - demand pattern and lacks spot price support. The 09 and 11 contracts are in a short - term data vacuum period and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18].