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万能险新规下月起实施,最低保证利率不“保证”了,还划算吗
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 01:18
Core Viewpoint - The new regulations on universal life insurance (ULI) aim to enhance supervision and address deep-rooted issues in the market, including the prohibition of products with terms shorter than five years and the dynamic adjustment of minimum guaranteed interest rates [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regulation Overview - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notification that will take effect on May 1, 2025, allowing for dynamic adjustments to the minimum guaranteed interest rates of ULI and prohibiting products with terms shorter than five years [2][3]. - Insurance companies must complete rectifications for existing ULI products that do not comply with the new regulations by April 30, 2026 [2]. Product Development and Management - The notification emphasizes the need to regulate ULI product development, enhance protection levels, and strengthen account management and fund utilization supervision [3]. - It prohibits the design of ULI products, except for whole life insurance, endowment insurance, and annuity insurance, and encourages companies to adjust surrender fees and policy bonuses to extend the actual duration of policies [3]. Sales Management - Insurance companies are required to improve the classification and suitability management of sales personnel to prevent misleading sales practices [3]. - A negative list for sales behavior is mandated, prohibiting the use of terms like "interest" and "expected returns" in marketing, and ensuring that the insurance protection attributes are not downplayed [3]. Fund Utilization and Risk Management - The notification allows for the adjustment of minimum guaranteed interest rates under certain conditions, reflecting a more flexible regulatory approach to market interest rate fluctuations [4][9]. - Strict regulations on fund utilization are introduced, including limits on concentration and non-standard investments, and prohibitions on complex transactions that could harm policyholders' interests [4][5]. Market Trends and Historical Context - ULI products were once highly favored due to their high guaranteed returns, with some products offering rates as high as 8% between 2014 and 2017, significantly outperforming traditional bank products [6][7]. - However, issues such as inadequate protection functions and aggressive fund management practices have led to increased regulatory scrutiny and a decline in ULI's popularity since 2017 [7][8]. Future Outlook - The implementation of the new regulations is expected to lead to a significant transformation in the ULI market, with a potential shift towards long-term protection products that cater to needs such as retirement and education funding [9][10]. - Industry insiders predict that companies may lower settlement rates further or develop hybrid products that combine protection with light investment features [10].
债市聚焦|低利率时代寿险公司资产配置策略怎么看?
中信证券研究· 2025-03-15 01:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance, which has been lowered to 2.5% as of September 2024, and anticipates further reductions to 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This change is expected to affect premium levels and insurance company asset allocation strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustment - The predetermined interest rate was officially lowered to 2.5% in September 2024, with expectations of further reduction to 2.0% by the end of 2025. This adjustment is part of a dynamic mechanism linking predetermined rates to government bond yields [2][3]. - The adjustment aims to enhance investment returns for insurance companies and encourage the allocation of insurance funds into the capital market, with a target of 30% of new premiums being invested in the capital market starting in 2025 [2][6]. Group 2: Pricing and Premium Stability - The pricing of life insurance products will increase due to the lower predetermined interest rates, but the "stop-sale" strategy may help stabilize premium volumes, despite a less favorable outlook for the 2025 sales season [3][4]. - The life insurance profit model relies on interest spread, fee spread, and mortality spread, with fair premium pricing being crucial for maintaining balance between present value of premiums and claims [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation of life insurance companies is heavily weighted towards fixed-income assets, with bonds constituting approximately 50.2% of total investments as of Q4 2024. The investment yield has been declining, increasing the risk of interest spread losses [4][5]. - Recommendations for asset allocation include increasing equity, alternative, and overseas asset investments while maintaining a dominant position in bond assets, particularly long-duration bonds [5][7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications of Policy Changes - The policy requiring 30% of new premiums to be invested in A-shares is expected to have limited short-term impact on insurance asset allocation but significant long-term effects, potentially increasing equity allocation to around 20% over five years [6]. - While increasing equity investments may reduce solvency ratios, the overall impact on insurance companies' solvency is anticipated to be limited due to the corresponding decrease in equity asset allocation [6].
保险Ⅱ:低利率时代:海外险资如何应对挑战?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-02-28 02:46
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for insurance companies, leading overseas insurers to extend bond durations and increase equity allocations. In the short term, China's bond market shows a slight shortage of long-term supply, and the current liability structure of insurers is sensitive to net assets, which poses some resistance to increasing equity allocations. However, in the medium to long term, with ongoing policy support for insurance capital market entry and improvements in capital market infrastructure, the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity will gradually increase, alleviating investment pressure [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Impact of Interest Rates on Insurance Companies - The valuation of A-share listed insurance companies is generally aligned with interest rates. Since 2011, the valuation of insurance companies has maintained a consistent relationship with bond yields, with only a few exceptions during specific periods [17][19]. - The decline in interest rates can lead to increased risks of interest spread losses due to duration mismatches, negatively impacting net assets and the intrinsic value of insurance companies [6][24]. Overseas Insurance Asset Allocation Strategies - U.S. insurers have significantly increased their equity allocations from 9.9% in 1980 to 30.8% in 2021, making equities the second-largest asset class after bonds. Additionally, the duration of bonds held by U.S. insurers has been extended, with the proportion of bonds with a remaining term of over 20 years increasing by 4.8 percentage points since 1997 [7][44][57]. - Japanese insurers have also extended bond durations and increased overseas asset allocations, with the overseas allocation rising from 12.8% in 2008 to 25% in 2023 [68]. - South Korean insurers have gradually increased overseas asset allocations from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.6% in 2022, while the bond proportion has decreased from 57.9% in 2013 to 46.2% in 2022 [8][77]. Policy Support for Equity Allocation - Policies encouraging long-term capital market entry are being implemented, aiming to enhance the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity. The goal is to have 30% of new insurance premiums invested in the stock market annually, which could potentially increase equity allocation by approximately 295.7 billion yuan if the proportion is adjusted to 60% [9][10][9].