美中关税缓解后，美银维持2025年利率预测不变: 关税削减后，美国实际平均关税从20%以上下降至12%通胀与滞涨风,险下降，核心PCE预期由年末3.5% 下调至3%。美银因此认为无需调整当前利率预测，维持2025年底2年期国债利率3.75%、10年期4.5%、 30年期4.9%。 利率曲线策略建议调整为"远端趋平": 由于短期降息可能性降低,美银推荐"2025年12月vs2026年12月"利率互换曲线趋平交易(从-34bps目标 至-70bps)。原因包括:(1)2025年降息压力下降;(2)2026年通胀将进一步下降;(3)新1日联储领导可能策略分 化。 维持中段久期(5Y)轻微偏多配置: 尽管市场此前高估了经济衰退风险、低估硬数据支撑，美银仍主张在更稳健的利率位置逐步增持久期， 预计10Y美债利率稳定在4.5-4.75%区间。 利差方面: 短期中性，长期看空30年期利差:由于财政赤字和美债供应压力,美银维持30年期利差"做空"建议。短端 (2-5Y)利差维持中性略偏多，因短期融资环境稳定。 通胀交易方面偏中性: 关闭1年期通胀空头，保留2y3y通胀多头头寸，预期中期通胀仍具上行潜力，尤其相对欧元区更为明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises is a key focus, with the goal of achieving "maintaining volume, improving quality, stabilizing prices, and optimizing structure" by 2025 to support economic recovery [1] Financing Costs - Comprehensive financing costs for small and micro enterprises include both interest and non-interest costs, with market interest rates (LPR) significantly declining, leading to historically low average loan rates [1] - As of March, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, both down by 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the average interest rate for newly issued loans was approximately 3.4%, down about 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average interest rate for newly issued inclusive loans to small and micro enterprises was 4.03% in the first two months of this year, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points from 2024, and a cumulative decline of 3.9 percentage points since 2018 [1] Non-Interest Costs - Despite low loan interest rates, enterprises still perceive financing costs as high due to elevated non-interest costs, which include various fees that are often opaque and layered [2] - The financial regulatory authority emphasizes the need to stabilize credit service prices and improve transparency in loan pricing to help reduce overall financing costs [2] Transparency Initiatives - Starting from September 2024, a pilot program was launched in five provinces to clarify the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, allowing them to see all interest and non-interest costs in a standardized format [2] - By the end of March 2025, the pilot regions had completed the disclosure of comprehensive financing costs for 270,000 loans totaling 1.53 trillion yuan [2] Collaborative Efforts - Banks are encouraged to adopt a more reasonable approach to credit pricing, utilizing technology to enhance efficiency and reduce operational costs while eliminating barriers to financing for small and micro enterprises [3] - Collaboration with local governments and financial institutions is essential to collectively reduce financing burdens on enterprises [4] - Enterprises are also urged to improve their creditworthiness and internal management to facilitate lower financing costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a significant shift in deposit rates, with many banks reducing rates below 2%, leading to a migration of funds from deposits to wealth management products [1][2][3] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Trends - In April, the wealth management market saw a substantial increase, with total assets reaching 31.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 2.2 trillion yuan from the previous month [1] - Historically, the second quarter is a crucial period for the expansion of bank wealth management, with April being a key month for growth [1] - Factors driving the growth in April include a stable bond market and a reduction in deposit rates by several small and medium-sized banks, which has attracted more funds into wealth management [1][2] Group 2: Deposit Rate Changes - Since April, many banks, including joint-stock and local small and medium-sized banks, have announced a new round of deposit rate cuts, with fixed deposit rates for both one-year and five-year terms falling below 2% [2] - The decline in deposit rates is reducing the attractiveness of deposits, prompting banks to shift marketing resources towards wealth management products [2][3] Group 3: Performance Benchmark Adjustments - The average performance benchmark for newly issued RMB fixed-income wealth management products in April was 2.97% for the upper limit and 2.27% for the lower limit, with expectations for further declines [3] - The downward adjustment of performance benchmarks is influenced by market rate expectations, regulatory changes, and the prohibition of "manual interest supplementation" [3] - Despite the pressures on product yields, the comparative advantage of wealth management over deposits remains, and the overall scale of wealth management is expected to grow throughout the year [3]

重庆市市场利率定价自律机制召开工作会议 智通财经5月14日电，重庆市市场利率定价自律机制5月14日召开工作会议，会议强调，要正确认识利率 市场化和利率自律管理的关系，充分发挥市场利率自律机制重要作用，强化利率政策执行，畅通政策利 率传导，不断提升金融服务实体经济质效。维护市场竞争秩序，防范"内卷式"竞争。落实好近期推出的 价格型政策，持续向实体让利。做实明示贷款综合融资成本试点工作，共同发力降低综合融资成本。 ...

每经编辑｜杜宇 近日，上海、广东、山东等地多家中小银行发布下调存款利率公告。此番调整后，多家银行出现存款利率"倒挂"现象，即三年期存款利率高于五年期存款利 率，或二年期存款利率高于三年期存款利率等。 图片来源：视觉中国 "根据LPR定价利率和资金市场利率变化，结合我行存款产品结构，自5月13日起，我行三个月定期存款利率由1.85%下调至1.70%，半年期定期存款利率由 1.90%下调至1.75%。"5月13日，上海松江富明村镇银行发布公告称。调整后，该行半年期定期存款利率高于三个月定期存款利率。 山东沂南蓝海村镇银行发布公告称，该行从5月9日起调整部分人民币存款利率，调整后三个月、六个月、一年期、二年期、三年期、五年期整存整取定期存 款利率分别为1.15%、1.45%、1.8%、1.9%、2.0%、1.8%，三年期定期存款利率高于五年期定期存款利率20个基点。 乌鲁木齐县利丰村镇银行发布公告称，该行从5月10日起调整部分存款挂牌利率，调整后二年期、三年期、五年期整存整取定期存款利率分别为2.35%、 2.25%、2.25%，二年期定期存款利率高于三年期和五年期定期存款利率10个基点。 广东清新农商行发布公告称 ...

中国商报（记者 马文博）近日，多地中小银行密集下调存款利率。5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，降准0.5个百分点，并降低政策利率0.1个百分 点。业内人士认为，随着降准降息落地，后续存款利率将开启新一轮调降。 中小银行率先行动 近期，多地农商行、城商行、村镇银行以及民营银行调整了人民币存款挂牌利率水平。 比如，聊城沪农商村镇银行5月9日发布的公告显示，该行于5月10日起对人民币存款挂牌利率进行调整，下调后，该行存款产品利率进入"1字头"。调整前， 该行2年期、3年期、5年期存款利率分别执行2.1%、2.16%、2.16%；调整后，该行对应期限的利率分别执行1.89%、1.98%、1.98%。 | 存款项目 | | 年利率% | | --- | --- | --- | | | 调整前 | 调整后 | | 一、城乡居民及单位存款 | | | | (一) 活期存款 | 0.21 | 0.21 | | (二) 定期存款 | | | | 1、整存整取 | | | | 三个月 | 1.26 | 1.26 | | 未 年 | 1.50 | 1.50 | | ー 年 | 1.95 | 1.80 | | 二 年 | 2.1 ...

2025 年第一季度货币政策报告中，最关键的内容包括两大部分：一是对国内 外经济形势的理解，二是下一阶段货币政策的主要思路。对于国内外经济形势， 央行认为国际经济环境更趋复杂严峻，增长动能不足，贸易保护主义兴起。而 国内经济则表现为回升向好，但仍需巩固。基于此判断，央行可能会采取更趋 宽松的态度。 在下一阶段货币政策思路方面，本次报告首次提出支持实体经济 与保持银行体系自身稳健性的关系。这意味着在降低贷款利率以刺激经济的同 时，还需保持银行净息差，以确保银行体系健康发展。由于当前国有行和股份 制银行净息差普遍跌破监管合意点 1.7%，预计很快将看到存款利率下调动作。 这一调整将是自 2022 年 4 月以来第六次大行调整存款利率。 Q1 货政报告的 5 个关键增量信息 20250512 摘要 • 央行可能采取更宽松的货币政策，以应对复杂的国际经济环境和国内经济 回升但仍需巩固的局面。 • 央行强调支持实体经济与银行体系稳健性的平衡，预计将下调存款利率以 保持银行净息差，这将是自 2022 年 4 月以来的第六次调整。 • 存款利率市场化调整机制通过将银行存款利率与 10 年期国债收益率及 1 年期 LPR 挂 ...

"降准降息落地！2.5%，进入倒计时！""警惕！保险市场或现重大调整"……5月12日，北京商报记者注意到，保险业预定利率或再度调降这一"情绪"正在保 险业中蔓延。根据中国人民银行日前更新的常备借贷便利利率表，将各期限常备借贷便利利率下调10个基点，自2025年5月8日起执行。此次降息与5月15日 执行的0.5个百分点全面降准形成政策组合拳。 今年4月21日，中国保险行业协会（以下简称"保险业协会"）组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例会。保险业专家认 为，当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%。 据了解，这是今年初监管推出"预定利率挂钩市场利率"机制后，首次公布研究值。今年初，《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的 通知》重磅发布。其中提到，要建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制，引导公司强化资产负债联动，科学审慎定价。 进一步来看，最新普通型人身险预定利率研究值2.13%，已较前值下降21个基点。根据触发条件，当保险公司在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续 2个季度比预定利率研究值高25个基点及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值，并在2 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Reform - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is accelerating interest rate marketization reforms, with recent adjustments to the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and the establishment of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as a policy rate [2][3] - The PBOC aims to create a clearer interest rate adjustment signal, with a more complete interest rate system that effectively transmits from short-term to long-term rates [2][3] Group 2: Financing Costs and Corporate Loans - As of March, the average weighted interest rate for corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, a year-on-year decrease of about 0.5 percentage points, remaining at historical lows [4] - The PBOC has initiated measures to clarify comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, improving transparency and helping to reduce non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees [4] Group 3: Bond Market and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need for improved institutional frameworks to mitigate interest rate risks in the bond market, which has seen significant growth but also volatility [5][6] - Experts suggest that while long-term government bonds carry no credit risk, they are still subject to interest rate risks, necessitating better risk management practices among financial institutions [5][6]

日前，中国人民银行(以下简称"央行")发布的《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》(以下简称《报 告》)提出，今年以来，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化逆周期调节，为经济持续回升向好创造了 适宜的货币金融环境。 市场人士表示，在各项货币政策支持下，货币信贷合理增长，社会综合融资成本稳步下行，信贷结构进 一步优化，持续多年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现，社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 《报告》明确，下阶段，央行将平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡与外部均衡、支持实体 经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，增强宏观政策协调 配合，扩大国内需求，稳定预期、激发活力，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 灵活把握政策 实施力度和节奏 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，《报告》强调"实施好适度宽松的货币政策"。同时还明确，"落实好 中央政治局会议精神，积极落地5月推出的一揽子金融政策"。 在5月7日国新办举行新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布了三大类共10项金融政策，包括降准、降息、 创设并优化结构性货币政策工具、推出支持科技创新的新政策工具等。 业内专家表示，这一揽子政 ...