（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．加拿大11月失业率降至16个月低点，兼职岗位激增成主要动力 美国商务部最新数据显示，美国9月消费者支出在此前连续三个月强劲增长后仅录得0.3%的温和增幅，反映第三季度末经济动能减弱。在高生活成本及疲 弱劳动力市场的双重压力下，需求受到抑制。 加拿大11月失业率降至16个月来的最低水平，而这一变化主要由兼职岗位的大幅增加所推动。数据显示，加拿大11月失业率降至6.5%，创2024年7月以来 的新低，当月净增加就业岗位53，600个，使得自9月以来的新增就业岗位累计达到181，000个。与此前美国加征关税并造成贸易不确定性、从而抑制企业 招聘的前八个月相比，加拿大就业市场自9月起呈现明显复苏。 11月失业率下降的主要原因是兼职劳动力净增加了63，000人，增量集中在医疗保健和社会援助行业。此外，政府实施的移民限制政策导致劳动力规模缩 小，这在一定程度上也对失业率的下降产生了影响。此前路透社调查的分析师普遍预计11月就业岗位将减少5，000个，并预期失业率将小幅升至7%，因 此实际数据明显好于市场预期。 加拿大蒙特利尔银行首席经济学家道格·波特指出，失业率在11月大 ...

12月5日，近期市场情绪被11月错综复杂的就业数据主导，多项指标方向不一，令投资者在研判下周联 邦储备会议动向时愈发谨慎。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，当经济信号缺乏一致性时，市场往往难以形成明确 的政策定价，也更依赖随后公布的关键指标。 就业数据显示出两种截然不同的叙事。一方面，最新失业救济申领人数大幅降至19.1万，远低于预期， 反映出劳动力市场仍维持一定韧性；另一方面，ADP就业报告却意外录得私人部门流失3.2万岗位，而 市场本以为会新增4万。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这类"强弱并存"的结构性分化，使得市场难以断定就业趋 势究竟是在改善还是走弱，从而让政策前景更具不确定性。 在这样的环境下，投资者将注意力转向即将公布的PCE数据，这一通胀指标可能成为决定利率政策的关 键因素。市场普遍预测PCE将维持在2.9%的区间，由于部分前期数据缺失，使得这次公布的权重被进一 步放大。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，若通胀与就业继续出现矛盾，市场对政策方向的解读将更加依赖这类核 心数据。 尽管就业端出现疲软迹象，交易者对下周降息的预期依旧稳固，目前概率维持在87%左右，与此前的定 价差异不大，显示投资者整体仍倾向于认为政 ...

政治稳定性与地缘局势变化也会对汇率产生冲击。若一国政治局势动荡或面临地缘冲突风险，可能引发 市场对该国经济前景的担忧，导致资本外流，本币汇率波动加剧。此外，市场情绪作为一种短期影响因 素，会通过投资者的买卖行为影响汇率走势，比如市场对某国经济的乐观或悲观预期，可能在短期内推 动汇率出现阶段性变化。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是国内专业的金融信息服务平台，专注于为用户提供 全面、及时的财经资讯及金融知识内容，覆盖宏观经济、金融市场、产业动态等多个领域，致力于通过 专业的信息整合与解读，帮助用户提升对金融市场的认知与理解。 免责声明：本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任 何形式的投资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 经济基本面是影响汇率长期走势的关键因素之一。一国的经济增长速度、就业状况、产业结构等指标， 直接反映了该国经济的整体活力与发展潜力。当经济增长态势良好时，往往会吸引更多海外资本流入， 进而推动本国货币需求增加，汇率面临升值压力；反之，若经济增速放缓或出现衰退迹象，资本可能外 流，导致本币汇率承压。根据2025年 ...

特朗普总统已明确美联储下任主席人选，但目前仍拒绝透露具体姓名。预测市场已形成明确倾向，而头 号热门人选也始终保持低调回避态度。 尽管未来几周内这一悬念有望揭晓，但更不确定的是，这位新央行掌门将在美国经济可能面临的十字路 口，遭遇何种复杂的政策环境。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特被外界视为头号热门人选。上周有报道对五位候选人的胜算进行 了分析，哈塞特的优势显著。现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于明年5月结束，此次遴选正是为 了确定其继任者。 当地时间周日，特朗普在"空军一号"上向记者表示："我已经知道要选谁了，没错，我们很快就会宣 布。"当被问及哈塞特是否为候选人时，他微笑着补充道："我不告诉你，等着官宣就好。" 这位热门候选人本人也在周末的电视访谈节目中频繁亮相，但均回避了关于其参选前景的问题。除哈塞 特外，候选名单还包括现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、米歇尔·鲍曼，前美联储理事凯文·沃什，以及 贝莱德固定收益部门负责人里克·里德。 哈塞特周日在节目中表示："能与一众优秀候选人共同入围，我感到非常荣幸。"他还指出，市场对其成 为热门人选的报道反应积极，并称"美国人可以期待特朗普总统会选出一位能为他们 ...

美国国家经济委员会主席凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）11月30日在福克斯新闻节目中表示，如果特朗普 总统提名他出任美联储主席，他会欣然接受。同日，特朗普在空军一号上向记者透露，已决定下一任主 席人选，并将在近期公布。 有关人士此前透露，哈塞特已成为接替鲍威尔的最热门人选。多位知情者称，特朗普对他高度信任，认 为他会在利率政策上与白宫保持一致。哈塞特在CBS节目中虽淡化相关报道，称其"只是传闻"，但强调 市场对提名即将公布的消息反应积极，美债拍卖走强、利率下行。他还表示，美国民众有望迎来一位能 让"车贷更便宜、利率更低"的美联储主席。 美财长斯科特·贝森特正主导遴选流程，他表示特朗普极有可能在12月25日前公布最终决定。贝森特已 在11月25日完成终轮面试，并将候选人缩小至五人：哈塞特、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、负责监管 事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼、前美联储理事凯文·沃什，以及贝莱德高管里克·里德尔。 现任主席鲍威尔任期将于2026年5月15日届满。特朗普多次批评鲍威尔在降息节奏上动作迟缓。随着市 场押注哈塞特领跑，美债收益率快速下探，10年期美债收益率一度跌破4%。哈塞特在11月20日的电视 采访 ...

在日本吃碗拉面，菜单上写着1000日元；在韩国买杯咖啡，要付5000韩元。 不少外国游客第一次看到这些数字，都会心里一惊，感觉像是"天价"，再一查汇率，发现1美元能换到 一百五十多日元、一千四百多韩元，更是疑惑：这两个全球公认的发达国家，怎么货币这么"不值钱"？ 是不是经济出了问题？ 从战后乱象到今天的"高面额" 日本和韩国今天的货币体系，并不是一开始就这么设计的，把货币面额定这么高，其实是几十年前历史 动荡时期留下的"后遗症"。 日本在二战结束后，经济几乎到了崩溃的边缘，那时候政府为了稳住局势，不得不大量印钞票。 钱多了，物价自然就飞涨，货币的价值一点点被稀释，为了让市场稳定下来，日本政府当时决定设定一 美元兑360日元的固定汇率。 这个汇率虽然后来放开了，但当时的数字直接影响了日后的整个货币体系，日元面额从那时起就变得越 来越大，再往后几十年也没再改过。 韩国的情况也差不多，建国初期经济基础薄弱，紧接着又遭遇了朝鲜战争，国内一片混乱，为了维持政 府运转，同样选择了大量印钞。 货币迅速贬值，后来虽然进行过几次币制改革，但通胀的痕迹早就刻在了货币体系里，韩元从成立起就 不断经历调整，最终形成了现在这种"万"为 ...

Market Overview - International gold maintained a volatile trend on Thursday, with an opening price of $4165.36 per ounce, a high of $4171.57, a low of $4142.63, and a closing price of $4157.93 [1] Economic News - Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, economic data was scarce. The European Central Bank's meeting minutes indicated a consensus among most members to maintain current interest rates, acknowledging potential upward or downward inflation data. The majority believe the "rate cut cycle has ended" based on current economic performance [2] - The ECB members noted that inflation risks are bidirectional, influenced by global trade policy instability and geopolitical risks, with expectations that inflation may drop below 2% by 2026 but will likely rebound towards target levels thereafter [2] Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin stated that peace agreements require the immediate lifting of wartime status and the initiation of elections, asserting that Ukraine currently lacks the legal framework to sign binding documents. He emphasized that negotiations with Ukraine's leadership are currently meaningless [4] - Upcoming talks between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives are expected, but significant disagreements remain on key issues such as territorial disputes and military personnel limits [4] Gold Market Insights - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1045.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining current rates [5] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, with a cautious approach to buying on dips recommended. The market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with short-term price movements indicating strong upward momentum [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB Futures traded sideways; precious metals performed strongly, and the energy and chemical sectors remained weak [2][9][11] - Gold and silver prices are likely to hit the upper limit of the range again if a December rate cut is confirmed and the expectation of Hassett as Fed chair is further consolidated, with silver showing higher elasticity. Short - term, maintain a range - bound bullish bias [16][17] - The resilience of tin's supply - demand fundamentals is pushing the central level of tin prices higher [23][24] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH fell by 0.11%, IM fell by 0.11%, TL fell by 0.01% [9] - Commodity futures: The top three gainers are Platinum (up 6.2%), Silver (up 3.4% with open interest increasing by 11.1% MoM), and Tin (up 2.1% with open interest increasing by 22.6% MoM). The top three decliners are Lithium Carbonate (down 1.7% with open interest increasing by 6.2% MoM), Bitumen (down 1.4% with open interest increasing by 1.4% MoM), and Polyester Staple Fiber (down 1.2% with open interest decreasing by 3.4% MoM) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On November 27, Gold rose 0.1% to 947.16 yuan/g, Silver rose 3.4% to 12525 yuan/kg. Gold's rise was driven by a weaker USD, rising odds of a December 25bp rate cut, and forward pricing of the "Hassett Fed" framework. Year - to - date, gold/silver surged over 55%/nearly 80% [15][16][17] - **Tin**: On November 27, Tin rose 2.1% to 302200 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight due to slow resumption in Wa State, reduced exports from Indonesia, and unstable production in Africa. Demand is growing due to the rate - cut cycle in the US and Europe, growth in the semiconductor industry, and inventory restocking [22][23][24] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The US will extend the exemptions from tariffs imposed over issues related to technology transfer and intellectual property rights with China until November 10, 2026 [27] - The NDRC held a symposium on unordered price competition cost identification on Nov 24 to formulate cost identification standards and curb such practices [27] 3.2.2 Industry News - GFE launched Platinum and Palladium Futures/Options on Nov 27, with a combined turnover of 42.28 billion CNY (Platinum: 29.231 billion CNY; Palladium: 13.049 billion CNY) [28]

Market Performance - US stock markets experienced a rally ahead of Thanksgiving, with consumer-related retail stocks performing well and optimistic sentiment boosting technology stocks, alongside a resurgence in interest rate cut expectations [1][4] - The three major US indices closed higher: the Dow Jones increased by 0.67% to 47,427.12 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.69% to 6,812.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.82% to 23,214.69 points [1][4] Sector Analysis - The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "fear index," fell approximately 35% over four days, marking its largest decline since mid-April [5] - Companies related to GPUs saw stock price rebounds, with Deutsche Bank analyst maintaining a "buy" rating on Oracle, which rose over 4%; Nvidia and Microsoft both increased by over 1%, contributing to the overall market gains [5] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.76%, with all 30 component stocks closing higher, including notable gains from Teradyne (6.98%), Marvell Technology (5.14%), AMD (3.93%), ASML (3.76%), and Micron Technology (2.55%) [5] International Developments - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) mistakenly released a report revealing a significant fiscal buffer in the UK spending plan, which exceeded market expectations [6][7] - The report indicated that the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves expanded the fiscal buffer from £9.9 billion to £22 billion (approximately $29 billion), allowing for additional spending or tax cuts [7] - The OBR also projected that tax reforms would raise £26.1 billion by the end of the current parliamentary term, with tax revenue expected to reach a record 38% of GDP by the 2030-2031 fiscal year [7][8]

Group 1 - The core argument is that while AI has significantly boosted productivity in the U.S. economy by 1.3%, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant to adjust interest rates, contrasting with the decisive actions taken during the 1990s under Greenspan [1][4][6] - The rapid adoption of AI is highlighted, with its penetration into various industries occurring in just three years, compared to six years for smartphones, indicating a transformative impact on productivity [6][4] - The productivity gains from AI are compared to the internet boom of the 1990s, suggesting that the current AI revolution could provide a similar economic boost if managed correctly [6][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to capitalize on AI's productivity gains is attributed to concerns over potential job losses, particularly in entry-level positions, as AI technologies tend to focus on "reducing workforce" rather than expanding it [9][11] - The technology sector is experiencing a paradox where it contributes significantly to economic growth while simultaneously reducing employment, with over 89,000 jobs reportedly replaced by AI last year [11] - The lack of high-quality data on AI's economic impact poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve in formulating effective policies, as existing research is often based on flawed information [13] Group 3 - The current political climate and the sensitive nature of policy decisions are factors in the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, especially with inflation still above target levels and a transitional leadership in place [15] - Despite some support for AI's potential to enhance productivity among Federal Reserve candidates, there is a general reluctance to implement policies that could risk economic stability [18][20] - The ongoing debate about AI's role in the economy is just beginning, with various stakeholders expressing differing levels of optimism and caution regarding its future impact [17][20]