Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the outlook of the crude oil market in August 2025, suggesting a long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing supply and gradually loosening supply - demand dynamics [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, with supply expected to continuously increase, and further loosening is foreseeable after the end of the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process regarding potential sanctions is the biggest short - term disturbance, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. It's recommended to short at high prices [8] - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral with the latest signal being negative, and the forward - looking indicator is also neutral with the latest signal being negative [11] Group 3: Review and Summary 7 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - The July view was that from a long - term perspective, oil prices were still bearish as the consumption peak season would gradually end. In the short - term, there were many supply - side disturbances. In early August, oil prices oscillated downward due to cracking decline, tariff policies, and optimism about the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. However, strong EIA data and a change in market sentiment about the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month [7] 8 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually loosening, and terminal demand shows some resilience. Supply is expected to increase, and further loosening is expected after the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process and Powell's speech are key factors. The conclusion is that from the month - spread scale, the shift to a looser supply - demand situation is becoming a reality, and it's advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 4: Crude Oil Market Analysis Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the latest signal being negative, touching 4 days out of 5 trading days from 8/7 to 8/13. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the latest signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1. The comprehensive indicator describes the current situation, and the forward - looking indicator focuses on future trends [11] Global Near - month Spread - Global near - month spreads generally declined in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply - demand. Some markets' month - spreads are flattening, and the Middle East market's spreads are relatively strong, which is related to China's imports [14] Crack Spreads - Global crack spreads were generally stable in August, and strengthened to varying degrees in the second half of the month. Although downstream demand is okay, the supply increase from both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ has weakened the near - end spreads [16][17] Global Spot Crack Spreads (Detailed Version) - Global diesel crack spreads strengthened after a period of decline. As the gasoline consumption peak season ends and the diesel demand season approaches, diesel crack spreads will support the downstream of crude oil [19] EIA Weekly Report - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014,000 barrels, exceeding expectations. The decrease was due to strong demand from overseas exports and high refinery operating rates. The diesel market's structural issues may strengthen the distillate crack spreads and refinery demand. Overall, the report implies demand resilience, which can slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short - term [23] Major Energy Agencies' August Reports - IEA and EIA significantly raised supply expectations for the second consecutive month, while OPEC maintained its non - OPEC+ supply expectations. All three agencies' reports suggest that the oil market is moving towards a record surplus [24] Key Changes in Major Energy Agencies' Monthly Reports - IEA and EIA continuously raised supply expectations, and as the traditional consumption peak season ends, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant. OPEC's adjustment of its 2026 forecast is to justify future production increases [25] Russia - Ukraine Peace Process - The main differences between Russia and Ukraine are in territory and security issues. The peace process is a short - term disturbance to the oil market, and after the initial optimism, it may be bullish for oil prices but won't change the long - term bearish trend [26] Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Market generally interprets Powell's speech as dovish, but it is dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September is high, but it depends on data. The Fed's preventive rate cuts are generally bearish for crude oil [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]

Group 1 - The petrochemical sector is experiencing an upward trend, with companies like Compton, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming leading the gains [1] - Everbright Securities highlights that despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term oil supply and demand dynamics remain favorable, maintaining a positive outlook on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector [1] - The recovery of the macro economy is boosting chemical demand, and long-term capacity elimination in chemical products is beneficial for leading enterprises, with a positive outlook on large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene profitability [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities notes the emergence of "anti-involution" policies in the petrochemical industry, recommending a focus on industry leaders with strong performance stability and consistent high dividends [1] - Oil prices are expected to have a floor, leading to high earnings certainty for oil companies, combined with high dividend characteristics, which may enhance valuations; attention is advised on companies with sustained production growth and low cost [1] - Domestic policies encourage oil and gas reserve increases and production, suggesting a focus on companies in the growth phase of production [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, US EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories both decreased more than expected, which boosted short - term crude oil demand and led to a stable recovery in prices. Geopolitically, according to Russian sources, India has not largely abandoned Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine war negotiations are ongoing with no significant progress. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with prices in the range of 483 - 493, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral as Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite US warnings, US inventories show a mixed picture, and Fed officials are concerned about inflation. The basis is bullish with spot prices at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as US API and EIA crude inventories decreased more than expected. The disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and prices below it. The main positions are bearish as both WTI and Brent crude main positions' long positions decreased. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in the 483 - 493 range, and long - term investors should hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - At the July Fed monetary policy meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market. Two high - level officials opposed maintaining interest rates and hoped to cut rates due to concerns about the labor market. However, subsequent data on core consumer inflation and producer prices provided evidence for those opposing rapid rate cuts. Also, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the EU plans to prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in September. There are discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Russia has not confirmed Putin's participation [5]. 3. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude increased by 1.60%, 1.52%, and 0.94% respectively, while SC crude decreased by 0.64% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with Oman crude rising by 1.12% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventory as of August 15 decreased by 241.7 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 601.4 million barrels, both more than expected. Cushing area inventory increased by 41.9 million barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 476.7 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 25,087 [15]. - **Brent Crude**: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 34,430 [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil price is influenced by the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a significant drop in WTI prices observed recently, indicating potential volatility in the market [2][3] - WTI prices fell to a low of $62.78 on August 8, but only dropped to $62.92 in the following seven trading days, suggesting that the bears are struggling to push prices below the $60 mark [2] - On the supply side, there is little support for rising oil prices, as Russia's oil production increased by 98,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 9.12 million barrels per day, exceeding OPEC's quota [2] Group 2 - The demand side is also facing challenges, as global economic conditions will determine oil demand, with the U.S. being the largest consumer [3] - The policies implemented during Trump's administration have negatively impacted oil demand, leading to a significant drop in oil prices from over $70 to around $50 [3] - With bearish factors on both supply and demand sides, the potential for a bullish rally in oil prices is limited, relying on the weakening of bearish positions [3] Group 3 - Technically, WTI prices are near a critical support level since June 11, indicating a possibility of a rebound [3] - The upcoming API data release is crucial; positive data could trigger a rebound, while negative data may lead to continued bearish trends [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices are oscillating. The meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump in August 2025 may discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. Geopolitical factors and supply - side changes may lead to a long - term downward trend in crude oil prices. For fuel oil, due to weak power demand in the Middle East and increased production, and with OPEC's continued production increase weakening crude oil sentiment, fuel oil is expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy for both crude oil and fuel oil is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Russian President Putin and US President Trump will meet in Alaska on August 15, 2025, to discuss a long - term peace plan to end the Ukraine war. Trump plans to promote a "Putin - Zelensky - Trump" tripartite meeting, but Ukraine opposes excluding European countries. Russia's core demands include Ukraine's recognition of the sovereignty of Russian - occupied areas and abandonment of joining NATO. The US tries to fulfill the "100 - day cease - fire" commitment through a cease - fire agreement [3]. - OPEC+ 8 - country meeting decided to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. The next meeting will be held on September 7 to discuss future production policy changes [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Futures Closing Prices - **Domestic Market**: SC crude oil closed at 495.2 yuan/barrel, up 5.8 yuan (+1.19%); FU high - sulfur fuel oil at 2770 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (+0.36%); LU low - sulfur fuel oil at 3502 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan (+1.13%) [3]. - **Foreign Market**: WTI crude oil at 64 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil at 66.71 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline at 2.0775 dollars/gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel at 669 dollars/ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas at 2.984 dollars/mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2.2 Spread Data - **Crude Oil Spreads**: SC - WTI spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+17.62%); SC - Brent spread increased by 0.80 yuan/barrel (+43.73%); Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 2.71 dollars/barrel [3]. - **Fuel Oil Spreads**: FU - SC spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton (+6.58%); LU - SC spread increased by 1 yuan/ton (+0.46%); LU - FU spread increased by 29 yuan/ton (+4.13%) [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Price Data - **Crude Oil**: Oman crude oil decreased by 0.62 dollars/barrel (-0.89%) to 68.76 dollars/barrel; Russian ESPO decreased by 0.46 dollars/barrel (-0.73%) to 62.47 dollars/barrel; Brent Dtd increased by 0.18 dollars/barrel (+0.26%) to 68.15 dollars/barrel [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-2.23%) to 394 dollars/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 dollars/ton (-0.61%) to 486.5 dollars/ton [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **US EIA Data**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3029 thousand barrels (-0.71%) to 423,662 thousand barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 1323 thousand barrels (-0.58%) to 227,082 thousand barrels; distillate oil inventory decreased by 565 thousand barrels (-0.50%) to 112,971 thousand barrels; US production decreased by 30 thousand barrels/day (-0.23%) to 13,284 thousand barrels/day; refined oil inventory decreased by 141 thousand barrels (-0.32%) to 44,681 thousand barrels [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 314 thousand barrels (+1.34%) to 23,699 thousand barrels [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 92,710; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,050 [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was at 98.267, up 0.2343 (+0.24%); the US 10 - year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.27%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.2545 [4]. - **Shipping Data**: The Baltic BDI index was at 2038, down 13 (-0.63%); the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was at 1013, up 2 (+0.20%); the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was at 656, down 15 (-2.24%) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff truce between the US and China has been extended by 90 days, and OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. Although inflation has risen, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The oil price is expected to fluctuate before the US - Russia summit on Friday, with a short - term trading range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The tariff truce extension, OPEC+ production cut, and expected Fed rate cut are neutral factors. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, API and EIA inventories decreased, but the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below it, and WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long - increasing [3]. - **Market Data**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and Oman crude oil showed different changes, with Brent up 0.04 (0.06%), WTI up 0.08 (0.13%), SC down 3.90 (- 0.79%), and Oman down 0.53 (- 0.77%) [7]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade Policy**: The US has extended the tariff exemption period with China again. Without the extension, the US would have raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China would have retaliated with 125% tariffs. After previous negotiations, the US reduced tariffs to 30% and China to 10% [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump will meet with Putin on Friday to assess the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. European countries are worried that the US may pressure Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace agreement [5]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period has been extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 423.3 million barrels in the week ending August 1, and EIA inventory decreased by 302.9 million barrels in the same period. Cushing area inventory increased by 45.3 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory decreased by 48.2 million barrels as of August 11 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 供给端利空因素密集影响，国际油价弱势下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-11 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 | | | | | | 原油主要周度数据汇总 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要数据 | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要数据 | | 最 新 | 上 周 | 涨跌（幅） | | 主要油品价格 | SC原油（元/桶) | 489 8 . | 527 9 . | -7 . | 22% | | 原油 | 944182 | 945933 | -0 19% . | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report previously indicated that oil prices in August were under downward pressure, and since early August, crude oil has been continuously weakening. The WTI crude oil price has dropped by approximately $7 during this period. The market's main trading logic is the repricing of geopolitics, with an increased possibility of progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks mediated by the US. However, risks after the continuous decline in oil prices should not be ignored, such as over - optimism about the peace talks and the impact of sanctions. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [5][77]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Overall Decline**: This week, oil prices declined overall. Trump claimed significant progress in talks with Russia and a high possibility of a summit between Zelensky and Putin, leading the market to price in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and causing a rapid drop in oil prices. As of August 7, the WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $63.82 per barrel, Brent crude at $66.41 per barrel, and the SC crude oil futures active contract at 508.9 yuan per barrel [5][10]. - **Weakening of Inter - monthly Spreads**: No detailed content on the specific situation of the weakening of inter - monthly spreads is provided [12]. - **Differentiation in Net Long Positions of Crude Oil Funds**: As of the week ending July 29, the net long position of WTI funds was 97,387 lots, a decrease of 850 lots from the previous week; the net long position of Brent funds was 249,973 lots, an increase of 22,728 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, the net long positions of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil increased by 6,049 lots, 2,817 lots, and 2,042 lots respectively [17]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agreed at an August 3 meeting to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day are planned to be fully restored. However, in June, the actual increase in production was limited. OPEC's crude oil production in June was 27.235 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day. The main contributor to the increase was Saudi Arabia, while Iran's production decreased due to conflicts [21]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to limited changes in the number of rigs and low producer willingness to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.367 million barrels per day [31]. - **Risks**: The market is pricing in a higher probability of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire, causing a rapid drop in oil prices. Trump's additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil may be for negotiation chips. With the ongoing US - Russia and Russia - Ukraine talks, considering the VIX level of domestic crude oil, purchasing SC call options can be considered to avoid extreme risks [33]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: As of the week ending August 1, gasoline and jet fuel demand declined, while distillate demand increased slightly. Overall, US oil demand decreased month - on - month. Gasoline demand was 9.04 million barrels per day, a decrease of 112,000 barrels per day from the previous week; distillate demand was 3.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 115,000 barrels per day from the previous week; jet fuel demand was 1.705 million barrels per day, a decrease of 388,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total US petroleum product demand was 20.122 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.265 million barrels per day from the previous week. Refinery capacity utilization reached 96.9%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week, and crude oil processing volume was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day from the previous week [34][46]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy has not directly affected the oil market. Attention should be paid to whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and thus increase crude oil demand. In June, consumption improved, and crude oil processing volume increased mainly due to the significant increase in the operating rate of major refineries. The operating rate of local refineries remained low due to tax policy adjustments and the transformation of domestic energy demand [50]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories decreased slightly, and the inventory level fluctuated at a low level. As of the week ending August 1, crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 423.662 million barrels, a decrease of 3.029 million barrels from the previous week; SPR inventories were 402.976 million barrels, an increase of 235,000 barrels from the previous week. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory increased by 460,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories continued to decline but were at a relatively high level, distillate inventories decreased slightly, and jet fuel inventories increased [60][66]. - **OECD**: In June, global crude oil demand was strong, and OECD inventories decreased slightly. The monthly global crude oil supply was 104.9 million barrels per day, demand was 104.43 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 470,000 barrels per day. OECD inventories at the end of June were 2.796 billion barrels, a decrease of 150 million barrels from the previous month [72]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The report reiterates that oil prices declined this week due to the market's repricing of geopolitics. After the continuous decline in oil prices, risks such as over - optimism about peace talks and sanctions should be considered. It is not recommended to short oil prices at this time, and attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine talks [77].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the oil market are generally neutral, with limited production growth from OPEC+ and the US, and the actual demand in the peak season slightly falling short of expectations. Oil prices are mainly driven by macro - level tariffs, sanctions, and geopolitical situations. In the medium term, as demand moves towards the off - season, oil prices may fall again. Due to the fermentation of negative macro - level sentiment, it is advisable to consider short positions after a rebound [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The WTI main contract opened at $65.15, closed at $64.27, with a high of $66.75, a low of $63.64, a decline of 1.37%, and a trading volume of 33.36 million lots. The Brent main contract opened at $67.75, closed at $66.96, with a high of $69.18, a low of $66.22, a decline of 1.01%, and a trading volume of 39.59 million lots. The SC main contract (yuan/barrel) opened at 508.4, closed at 501, with a high of 510.9, a low of 497.5, a decline of 0.63%, and a trading volume of 14.76 million lots [6]. - **News**: According to the New York Times, Trump may meet with Putin face - to - face next week, followed by a three - way meeting with Zelensky. Under this background, the possibility of the US imposing secondary tariffs on Russian energy is extremely low [6]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending August 1st, US crude oil inventories declined more than expected, and the refinery utilization rate reached a new high. However, US refined oil demand remained weak, with gasoline consumption in the peak season not significantly increasing and being lower than the same period in 2024 for four consecutive weeks [7]. 2. Industry News - Goldman Sachs data shows that although Russia supplies about one - third of India's crude oil, the US share climbed to 8% from April to May 2025 and was 4% in the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The Iraqi oil minister said that oil exports through the Turkish Ceyhan pipeline will resume on Wednesday or Thursday [8]. - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military attacked the Ukrainian natural gas transportation system supplying military facilities [8]. - After the US decided to impose a 25% new tariff on Indian goods, Indian refiners are waiting for government instructions on whether to continue buying Russian oil [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]