就业调查的统计范围涵盖澳门半岛、氹仔及路环的所有住宅单位，但不包括学校宿舍、安老院等集体居 住单位，统计对象为居住在单位内人士。 （文章来源：人民日报） 本报澳门2月1日电澳门特区统计暨普查局资料显示，2025年10月至12月本地居民失业率为2.3%，与上 一期（2025年9月至11月）相同。本地居民就业不足率维持2.0%。2025年第四季度本地就业居民及就业 人口的月工作收入中位数分别为2万澳门元及1.73万澳门元。 ...

先说乍听起来最能吸引人的事，GDP会比多数经济学家预期更好，这个判断建立在两个前提上，其一是关税的"一次性"拖累会逐渐消失，其二是财政刺激会 继续带来支撑，换句话说，外在的摩擦在退场，内部的推力在继续，但这两个前提都不是铁板钉钉的事实，而是"假设"；一旦全球供应链、地缘政治或财政 支出路径出现偏差，增长数字就会被打折。难道市场就不会问一句，这增长是"真增长"还是"消费与库存堆起来的泡沫"吗？ 再看劳动力市场，这是高盛报告里最谨慎的部分，他们把不确定性直接点名为"劳动力市场是2026年前景中最不确定的因素"，讲得像是在做风险提示，是 的，这里有三层意思职位空缺在慢慢减少，企业在讨论裁员，企业又渴望用人工智能降低人工成本，最关键的是移民数量的骤降，让劳动供给的增长放缓， 从而使得就业增长乏力；这意味着，就算经济看似稳健，背后的人口与供需结构正在悄悄改变，想用传统的劳动力模型去解读恐怕会漏掉许多隐蔽的裂缝。 高盛还计算出一个看似轻描淡写却十分锋利的数字，为了让失业率在2026年维持在4.5%，美国每月只需新增不到7万个就业岗位，这听起来门槛很低，但问 题是新增岗位的质量在哪里，行业分布如何，地域差距如何——如果新增 ...

据欧盟统计局数据，2025年12月，欧盟的失业率为5.9%，与上年同期持平。 其中，男性失业率为 5.8%；女性失业率为6.0%；青年失业率为14.7%。 ...

2026.01. 31 BCA研究公司美国债券策略师斯威夫特（Ryan Swift）称，从美联储公布的利率预期来看，他们似乎 认为本轮宽松周期已接近尾声。今年美国实际国内生产总值将实现强劲增长，通胀率将继续下行，失业 率则会保持平稳或小幅下降。若美联储的预期假设成为现实，情况则会更为复杂。"委员们对于2026年 应采取何种利率政策，仍存在相当大的意见分歧。事实上，相比对经济前景的看法，美联储委员们在利 率政策上的分歧要更为明显。" 本文字数：2507，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 当地时间周五（30日），美国总统特朗普宣布美联储新任主席人选——凯文·沃什。这位长期批评美联 储的人士，将迎来把自己的货币政策体系理念付诸实践的契机，与此同时，当下白宫正试图加强对利率 制定的掌控。 隔夜，美股震荡下行，美元汇率和债券收益率则应声走强，黄金价格大幅跳水。市场预期沃什会支持降 息，但远不会像其他潜在提名者那样采取激进的宽松货币政策。一是他拥有美联储任职履历，二是华尔 街普遍认为，他不会一味听命于特朗普。 分裂的美联储 如果通过美国国会表决，沃什将面临的将是内部分歧剧烈的美联储。今年美国经济料将延续强劲 ...

美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）周五表示，他之所以对美联储本周维持利率不变的 决策持反对意见，原因是经济数据释放出需要进一步降息的信号。 特朗普在当日早些时候宣布，计划提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh），在鲍威尔5月主席任 期结束后接替其职位。 谈及沃什时，博斯蒂克表示："实际上我与他的交集并不多，只听说他是一位思维缜密的人，也是一个 能与之深入交流的对象。" 沃勒还解释称，剔除美国总统特朗普加征关税的影响后，美国当前的通胀水平已接近美联储2%的政策 目标，这也是他支持降息的关键依据。 与之相反，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）则表示，当前高企的通胀水平意味 着，美联储应暂缓再次降息。 博斯蒂克周五在接受CNBC采访时称："我们应当选择等待，保持更多耐心。目前美国的通胀水平仍处 于过高状态，因此货币政策仍需保持一定的限制性。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本周在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，近期经济数据显示，此前持续走高的失业率 已出现企稳迹象，因此1月维持利率的决策获得了政策制定者的广泛支持。 博斯蒂克周五呼应了这一观点："我确实认为， ...

德国失业人数周五突破300万大关，创12年来最高，而通胀率则重新升至欧洲央行2%的目标之上，使欧 洲最大经济体在2025年末意外强劲收官后前景蒙阴。 数据显示，德国1月通胀率意外小幅回升，同比加速至2.1%。此前接受调查的分析师预计，欧盟调和通 胀率将维持在12月的2.0%不变。 与此同时，劳工局的数据显示，过去几年经济停滞的余波仍在拖累就业市场。1月失业人数比12月增加 17.7万人，总人数升至308万人。 "失业人数升至300万以上是一个警讯，"德国总理默茨在社交媒体平台X上表示。 "推动经济复苏必须成为今年的核心优先事项。" 未经季节性调整的失业率上升0.4个百分点至6.6%。默茨承诺在连续两年轻微萎缩后，通过大幅增加基 础设施与国防支出来重振经济。尽管整体经济展现更强韧性，但默茨的各项措施需要比预期更长时间才 能转化为实际的经济改善。 劳动力市场依旧疲弱 "当前劳动力市场动能不足，"劳工局局长Andrea Nahles表示。"年初因季节性原因，失业人数显著上 升。" 在季节性调整后，情况略有改善。劳工局称，季调后失业人数与12月持平，为297.6万人，季调后失业 率维持在6.3%。接受路透调查的分析师 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with multiple influencing factors. The macro - environment has both positive and negative aspects, and the supply - demand relationship is also in a state of change. In terms of operation, it is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high due to cost support and the tight supply of scrap aluminum [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 - It is recommended to take a long - position approach on pullbacks. Aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and its price is likely to remain high due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and cost support. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [5]. 3.2行情回顾 - In January, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. The alumina futures price rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices showed a strong trend [7]. 3.3宏观面 - **US Economic Situation**: The US economic data is mixed. The GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was revised upwards, the initial jobless claims increased slightly, and the PCE price index rose moderately. The labor market is still slowing down. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts in 2025. The next Fed rate cut may drive a new round of rise in non - ferrous metals, and the specific timing of the rate cut is worthy of attention [9][10]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical potential risks are escalating, and the global aluminum premium transmission is intensifying [13]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's economy generally remains stable, and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The central bank will maintain the LPR unchanged. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been issued, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [14][16]. - **Supply Situation**: The domestic supply of bauxite is in a tight pattern. In December 2025, the domestic bauxite output increased slightly month - on - month, and the short - term supply increase is limited. Overseas, the supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be stable, with an estimated export volume of 180 million tons in 2026, but the supply from Australia has decreased. The alumina production capacity is increasing, but there are many maintenance and production cuts recently, and the supply pressure has decreased [17][18][21][23]. 3.4基本面 - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The daily output of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase at a high level, but the overall supply is restricted. In December 2025, the output of primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. In January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased to 44.1 million tons, and the output was 3.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Overseas, the release of production capacity is lower than expected [26][27][30]. - **Aluminum Processing**: Affected by the Spring Festival effect and high aluminum prices, the operating rate of aluminum processing has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating rate of aluminum processing is 59.4%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week [32][33]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment period. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of real estate sales area, investment, new construction area, and completion area were - 16.6%, - 36.8%, - 19.3%, and - 18.4% respectively. The annual data also showed a decline, but the sales decline has narrowed, and there may be an improvement in real estate expectations [35]. - **Automobile and Photovoltaic Industries**: In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached a new high, with new energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 16 million. The new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 19 million in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The export of automobiles is expected to reach 7.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The new photovoltaic installation in December 2025 decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.3% [39][41]. - **Inventory Situation**: The LME aluminum inventory is in a continuous destocking state, while the SHFE aluminum inventory is in a seasonal inventory accumulation state. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is in the inventory accumulation channel, and the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to continue in February. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the scrap aluminum market is in short supply, and the cost support remains [42][43][46][52]. - **Aluminum Export and Import**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import increased by 4.8% year - on - year. In December, the export decreased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the import increased by 33.3% year - on - year. The export of aluminum products is expected to remain stable in January [50].

每经AI快讯，1月30日消息，意大利12月失业率为5.6%，前值5.70%。 ...

Group 1 - Eurozone Q4 GDP annual growth rate preliminary value is 1.3%, exceeding the expectation of 1.2% and slightly lower than the previous value of 1.4% [1] - Eurozone Q4 GDP quarterly growth rate preliminary value is 0.3%, matching the previous value and above the expectation of 0.2% [1] - Eurozone unemployment rate in December is 6.2%, better than the expected 6.3% and unchanged from the previous value of 6.3% [1]

每经AI快讯，1月30日消息，德国1月季调后失业率为6.3%，前值6.30%。 ...