中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。对于明年的经济政策，大家不仅关心"要做什么"，也想 知道"不做什么"。从会议释放的信号看，有三件事已经明确不会做。 第一，不会"松油门" "更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争""更好统筹发展和安全""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"...... 与几天前的中央政治局会议类似，此次中央经济工作会议也用了许多"比较级"，且部署更细，方向更明 晰： ——政策力度，不减。 更加积极的财政政策、适度宽松的货币政策将延续，效果突出的"两新""两重"政策将优化实施。"发挥 存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，从会议这一表述看，在既有政策落地见效的基础上，还会根据形势变 化推出新工具，解决新问题。 ——政策质量，会升。 把该做的事坚持下去，把定下来的事做到底——中国经济的韧性和动力在"长期主义"里不断积累、显 现。 也正是基于这种可预期性，世界银行、国际货币基金组织（IMF）、亚洲开发银行等国际机构近日密集 上调中国经济增速预测。 IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃判断，中国在稳定而有力的政策支持下，有望保持强劲增长，未来几年对全球增 长的贡献率仍将维持在约30%。 第三，不会"单打独斗" 此次中央 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2512） IH主力合约（2512） | 4539.6 2969.8 | -35.0↓ IF次主力合约（2603） -10.4↓ IH次主力合约（2603） | 4496.6 2961.8 | -38.0↓ -8.2↓ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7074.4 | -53.8↓ IC次主力合约（2603） | 6894.0 | -54.2↓ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7304.6 | -70.0↓ IM次主力合约（2603） | 7063.0 | -67.0↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1569.8 | -23.6↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2534.8 | -13.2↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 230.2 | -19.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4104.6 | -36.8↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 ...

对于未来中国宏观经济政策的建议，IMF工作人员认为，中国应继续向消费拉动增长模式转型，由此应 当采取更有力的一揽子政策，主要包括三个方面：第一，通过更加积极的宏观经济政策和配套改革，推 动强化社会保障体系，增强消费信心。第二，推进地方政府融资平台债务重组，减轻财政压力；同时， 将强化金融部门监管、加强财政纪律与透明度改革相结合，从而最大限度地降低长期成本。第三，实施 放宽服务业市场准入限制、营造更为公平的竞争环境等结构性改革举措。 "根据我们的计算，如果这三项政策能取得实质性进展，到2030年中国GDP有望大幅提高约2.5个百分 点，创造约1800万个额外的就业岗位。"格奥尔基耶娃称。 （文章来源：证券时报） 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）赴中国代表团一行在北京召开新闻发布会，介绍对中国经济年度 评估（即2025年中国第四条款磋商）的初步结论。 "虽然今年遭遇了相当大的冲击，但中国经济仍呈现出显著韧性。"IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃 在会上指出，预计中国经济2025年将增长5%。这一预测值较IMF在10月份发布的《世界经济展望》报 告数据上调了0.2个百分点。 格奥尔基耶娃解释称，之所以上调 ...

格奥尔基耶娃解释称，之所以上调中国经济增长预期，是因为今年以来强劲的出口，以及广受欢迎的宏 观经济政策。她认为，今年中国经济有韧性的增长支撑了收入增长，中国对全球经济增长的贡献率约为 30%，这一发展前景为中国政府部门应对挑战提供了有利环境。 12月10日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)赴中国代表团一行在北京召开新闻发布会，介绍对中国经济年度评 估(即2025年中国第四条款磋商)的初步结论。 "虽然今年遭遇了相当大的冲击，但中国经济仍呈现出显著韧性。"IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜.格奥尔基耶娃 在会上指出，预计中国经济2025年将增长5%。这一预测值较IMF在10月份发布的《世界经济展望》报 告数据上调了0.2个百分点。 对于未来中国宏观经济政策的建议，IMF工作人员认为，中国应继续向消费拉动增长模式转型，由此应 当采取更有力的一揽子政策，主要包括三个方面：第一，通过更加积极的宏观经济政策和配套改革，推 动强化社会保障体系，增强消费信心。第二，推进地方政府融资平台债务重组，减轻财政压力；同时， 将强化金融部门监管、加强财政纪律与透明度改革相结合，从而最大限度地降低长期成本。第三，实施 放宽服务业市场准入限制、营造更为公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A-share market is expected to maintain short-term strength driven by inflation recovery and optimism from the Politburo meeting, but if the Fed's post-meeting statement is hawkish, A-shares may face capital outflow pressure [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF主力合约（2512）最新4574.2，环比-6.8；IC主力合约（2512）最新7122.2，环比+28.0；IH主力合约（2512）最新2980.8，环比-10.4；IM主力合约（2512）最新7371.4，环比+19.4 [2] - IF-IH当月合约价差1593.4，环比+1.8；IC-IF当月合约价差2548.0，环比+36.8 [2] - IF当季-当月-40.0，环比-0.6；IH当季-当月-10.2，环比-0.4；IC当季-当月-178.2，环比-2.0；IM当季-当月-248.4，环比-12.2 [2] Futures Position - IF前20名净持仓-22,704.00，环比-413.0；IH前20名净持仓-12,252.00，环比-254.0；IC前20名净持仓-22,078.00，环比-676.0；IM前20名净持仓-36,011.00，环比+804.0 [2] Spot Price - 沪深300最新4591.83，环比-6.4；上证50最新2,988.6，环比-9.3；中证500最新7,156.0，环比+34.7；中证1000最新7,408.2，环比+27.7 [2] - IF主力合约基差-17.6，环比-2.6；IH主力合约基差-7.8，环比-1.5；IC主力合约基差-33.8，环比-6.9；IM主力合约基差-36.8，环比-4.1 [2] Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）17,916.34，环比-1260.55；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）25,105.72，环比+100.58 [2] - 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）2196.00，环比-29.69；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）-793.0，环比+1898.0 [2] - 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）-617.91，环比-335.68；上涨股票比例（日，%）44.63，环比+20.69 [2] - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2512）28.40，环比-4.80；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）12.85，环比+1.01 [2] - IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2512）53.60，环比+7.40；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）12.72，环比+0.88 [2] - 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）14.34，环比+0.00；成交量PCR（%）59.45，环比-4.85；持仓量PCR（%）77.65，环比-1.72 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - 全部A股5.20，环比+1.90；技术面4.50，环比+2.20；资金面5.90，环比+1.60 [2] Industry News - The Politburo meeting on December 8 set the tone for the 2026 economic work, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2] - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month-on-month and increased 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month and decreased 2.2% year-on-year [2] Key Events to Watch - China's November financial data to be released; Fed interest rate decision on December 11 at 3:00; Swiss National Bank interest rate decision on December 11 at 16:30; US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 on December 11 at 21:30 [3]

Group 1 - The global economy is undergoing significant adjustments, with technological innovation becoming the core driver for industrial upgrades and economic growth [1] - Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) are essential in empowering technology enterprises and optimizing resource allocation [1][3] - The 18th Shanghai International Private Equity Forum (2025SIPEF) focused on the theme "Gathering Capital Power to Support Technological Innovation," bringing together industry leaders, investors, and government representatives [1] Group 2 - Yangpu District is positioned as a key area for innovation in Shanghai, with over 8,300 digital economy enterprises, including major players like Douyin and Meituan [1] - The district aims to accelerate the construction of a capital investment cluster and a financial service system to support technology transformation and enterprise growth [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for China emphasizes the need for expanding both domestic and foreign demand, with a focus on optimizing supply and enhancing overall economic performance [2][3] Group 3 - The Chinese merger and acquisition (M&A) market remains active, driven by policy support and industry consolidation, with PE firms needing to enhance their capabilities throughout the investment cycle [3] - Discussions at the forum highlighted the importance of cross-regional and cross-industry collaboration in M&A to create value and manage risks effectively [5] - The healthcare sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements, with a focus on source innovation and industrialization to drive high-quality development [6]

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-09 镍库存延续增长，市场按需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。技术面，持仓持稳价格 免责声明 调整，多空分歧增加。观点参考：预计短线沪镍震荡调整，关注MA30压力。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 117350 | -680 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -270 | -100 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14885 | -85 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report expects the Shanghai tin market to undergo oscillatory adjustments and suggests paying attention to the MA10 support. On the macro - front, China will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. On the fundamental side, the supply of domestic tin ore imports remains tight, the production of refined tin is expected to be limited, and the demand from downstream enterprises for high - priced goods is extremely limited. Technically, the position volume has decreased, the price has corrected, the divergence between long and short positions has increased, and it has fallen below the MA5 support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 312,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,880 yuan; the closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai tin has a change of - 590 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan. LME 3 - month tin is at 39,800 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 375 US dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 43,424 lots, a decrease of 5,047 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 331 lots, an increase of 89 lots. LME tin total inventory is 3,075 tons, a decrease of 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,865 tons, an increase of 506 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 7,237 tons, a decrease of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 316,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 315,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 24 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import quantity of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 302,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 306,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton with no change; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import quantity of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 202,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.2454 million tons, an increase of 136,100 tons; the monthly export quantity of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million vehicles. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 58.9% but the growth rate was only 4.2%, while exports increased by 52.4% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the market remained cautious. Although a December rate cut has reached a consensus, the future rate - cut path and how the Fed replenishes market liquidity are the focus. With the LME inventory problem hard to solve, the market sentiment may keep copper prices high and even make them continue to strengthen, so a prudent and optimistic outlook is held [1]. - Overnight, alumina and Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, while aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. After the end of environmental inspections in the north, domestic mines resumed production, and ore supply increased. Alumina supply remained high, and inventory pressure continued to build. Affected by macro - sentiment and copper prices, aluminum followed the upward trend and hit a new high. The end - of - year demand did not decline significantly, and the seasonal pressure on aluminum ingot shipments in Xinjiang helped extend the destocking cycle. Currently, the upward strength of aluminum prices is weakening, and attention should be paid to downstream high - price stocking sentiment [1][2]. - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the raw - material support strengthened marginally, but the price upside was limited. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw - material supply was tight, but the output of ternary precursors decreased in December, and the finished - product side was under pressure. In the short term, nickel may still fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial - policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's rate - policy stance and China's economic - policy orientation. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 164,550 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,410 tons to 398,720 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. The market is cautious before the Fed's meeting, but LME inventory issues may support high copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,574 yuan per ton, down 0.27%, and AL2601 closed at 22,120 yuan per ton, down 0.11%. AD2601 closed at 21,060 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,809 yuan per ton, and the aluminum - ingot spot discount widened. After the end of environmental inspections, ore supply increased, and alumina supply remained high. Aluminum prices followed the upward trend but may face downward pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.57% to $14,885 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.19% to 117,800 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 228 tons to 253,344 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 264 tons to 34,500 tons. The nickel - iron price center moved up, and the new - energy industry chain faced some pressure. In the short term, nickel may fluctuate [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 710 yuan per ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 45 yuan per ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 1,500 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,000 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons, and the total domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,310 yuan per ton, and the 1 lead - ingot premium in East China increased by 5 yuan per ton. The price of lead concentrates at some locations increased by 100 yuan per ton. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 547 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference decreased by 10 yuan per ton. The aluminum - alloy ADC12 price in South China increased by 200 yuan per ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and the total SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 8,439 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 1 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate increased by 425 yuan per ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 2,501 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.4% to 22,840 yuan per ton. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the social inventory decreased by 0.36 million tons. The active - contract import loss decreased [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 2.9% to 318,380 yuan per ton. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540 per ton. The SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons, and the active - contract import loss decreased [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][18] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36] - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published many professional articles. His team has won multiple awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillating" [1] Core View - The short - term trend of bond futures is likely to be oscillating, and trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened lower. After horizontal fluctuations in the morning, they declined, with a rapid pull - up in the afternoon but a quick decline, and a slight rebound near the end of the session. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.29%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 107.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.30%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.02 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year yield increased by 0.26 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year yield increased by 0.19 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield increased by 0.06 BP to 2.26% [1] - Policy: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026. It emphasized implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1][2] - Trade data: In November, China's US - dollar - denominated export amount increased by 5.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 3.0%, and the import increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, the cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [2] Market Logic - China's export data in November was better than expected, but the manufacturing and service PMIs were below the boom - bust line. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth is still the main line in the fourth quarter. The Politburo meeting on December 8 proposed to continue implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The bond futures market continued the characteristics of last week, with the 30 - year variety continuing to decline and other varieties fluctuating horizontally [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - style investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]