Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Group 1 - German economist Martin Luecke stated that the U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, describing these policies as a "disastrous operation manual for a complete collapse" [1] - California Attorney General Rob Bonta indicated readiness to sue to protect local businesses if President Trump proceeds with tariffs against Apple, which is headquartered in Cupertino, California [1] - President Trump expressed agreement with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments that the U.S. does not need to bring textile manufacturing back domestically, focusing instead on manufacturing "big items" like chips, computers, and AI [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the current world order is fundamentally shaken, with multilateral cooperation being replaced by zero-sum thinking and power struggles, which could pose risks to Europe [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil emphasized the need for the EU to focus on a solution that benefits both Europe and the U.S. [2] - The Japanese government plans to allocate 900 billion yen to mitigate rising electricity and gas costs and support small and medium-sized enterprises, with total project scale expected to reach 2.8 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - U.S. crude oil futures remained flat at $61.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.05% to $64.81 per barrel [3] Group 4 - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.7% to $3342.2 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 0.11% to $33.645 per ounce [4] - Eurozone bond yields declined, with France's 10-year bond yield down by 2.4 basis points to 3.234%, Germany's by 0.7 basis points to 2.558%, Italy's by 3 basis points to 3.552%, and Spain's by 1.3 basis points to 3.174% [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 99.012, with various currency exchange rates showing slight fluctuations against the dollar [4] Group 5 - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1843 against the U.S. dollar, appreciating by 52 basis points from the previous trading day [5]

日本央行行长植田和男：日本央行已经成功地将让通胀预期脱离"零"，但尚未将其重新锚定在2%，这 就是我们仍然保持宽松政策立场的原因。 ...

大摩：尽管4月通胀高企，英国央行料仍坚持宽松政策 金十数据5月21日讯，摩根士丹利的分析师Bruna Skarica在一份报告中表示，尽管英国4月份的通胀率高 于预期，但英国央行可能会坚持其宽松政策的路线。她说，3.5%的年度CPI涨幅并不是一个特别大的打 击喜，因为这是由行政和旅游一次性支出推动的。不过，即便5月通胀可能更为温和，且6月就业市场报 告将显示薪资增长出现明显下滑，英国央行6月降息似乎不太可能。Skarica表示："在8月份之前，很多 事情都可能发生。"包括通胀预期下降。她说："我们仍然预计利率会下调，并在年底前连续下调至 3.25%。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the implementation of a series of monetary policies has set a positive tone for liquidity in May, with a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 10 basis points cut in policy interest rates [8][9][22] - The report highlights that liquidity conditions are expected to remain optimistic in May, with the funding center gradually returning to the vicinity of policy interest rates [11][12] - The report notes that the recent easing of exchange rate pressures has alleviated constraints on funding rates, creating a favorable environment for the recent interest rate cuts [12][22] Group 2 - The report discusses the upcoming peak in government bond supply in the first half of the year, suggesting that liquidity pressures are unlikely to re-emerge due to the coordinated monetary policy [13][22] - It emphasizes that May is typically not a month of significant credit demand, which may lead to a natural easing of liquidity conditions [30][32] - The report mentions that the first quarter monetary policy execution report has removed references to "funds idling," indicating a more favorable liquidity environment in May [28][37] Group 3 - The report addresses the timing of resuming government bond purchases, suggesting that the current liquidity environment may not support such actions immediately, with a more favorable opportunity expected in the second half of the year [38][40] - It highlights that the recent easing measures have opened up space for trading, with short-term and medium-term bond yields declining, while long-term yields remain stable [41][42] - The report suggests that the yield curve may further steepen, indicating a potential for increased duration value as interest rates decline [43][47]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong start after the "May Day" holiday, with major indices mostly rising, including a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index to 3342 points, and a 3.62% rise in the North Star 50 Index [1] - The market saw a jump at the beginning of the week due to easing news related to tariffs and a series of monetary easing policies released by the central bank [1][2] - On Friday, A-shares declined again, with trading volume shrinking, despite better-than-expected April import and export data [2] Economic Indicators - China's April export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the expected 0.5% but lower than March's 12.4% [2] - April imports decreased by 0.2%, which was better than the expected decline of 6.0% and less severe than March's 4.3% drop [2] Sector Performance - Aerospace and military stocks emerged as star sectors during the week, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in South Asia [2] - The market's reaction to the central bank's easing policies was initially positive, but investor sentiment remained cautious due to a lack of anticipated fiscal stimulus [1] Future Outlook - The upcoming discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials regarding tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing market trends [2] - Even if the talks do not yield significant progress, there is an expectation that arrangements for future discussions will be made, which may sustain market optimism [3]

Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a long-awaited easing policy by lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and reducing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.4% [1][7] - Following the announcement, the yield curve steepened due to market reactions, with the 2-year and 10-year Chinese government bond yield spread narrowing to 16 basis points, close to a ten-year low [10][1] - Bank of America anticipates further steepening of the yield curve due to increased supply of long-term bonds from special government bonds and favorable liquidity conditions, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting bond purchase operations [1][10] Foreign Exchange and Capital Flows - The net foreign exchange settlement balance for banks improved from -6.7 billion USD in February to 0.1 million USD in March, indicating a balanced supply and demand for USD [2][30] - The comprehensive net foreign exchange settlement amount reached 8.4 billion USD in March, marking the first positive value since October 2024 [4][33] - In March, the merchandise trade net foreign exchange settlement surplus increased from 16.7 billion USD in February to 25.5 billion USD, while the net foreign exchange settlement deficits for services and income remained stable [37][34] Bond Market Dynamics - The average rates for DR007 and R007 in April were 1.82% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating a further easing of the funding environment [7] - The PBOC has not conducted government bond transactions in the secondary market for four consecutive months, but is expected to engage in net bond purchases in the coming months to align with a large-scale bond issuance plan [16][19] - The net supply of government bonds decreased significantly in April compared to previous months, with a total net supply of approximately 4.85 trillion RMB, which is 35% of the annual issuance estimate [21][19]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher due to various favorable policies and US-China tariff negotiations but later experienced a volatile decline, closing with minor gains across major indices [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.80% to 3342.67 points, while the Shenzhen Composite, ChiNext, and STAR 50 indices increased by 0.46%, 0.57%, and 0.36% respectively, with the North Star 50 index declining by 0.46% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 150.51 billion yuan, an increase from 136.44 billion yuan the previous day [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in the policy interest rate, which is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [1] - Additional measures include increasing the quota for re-lending for technological innovation and agricultural support by 300 billion yuan each [1] Group 3 - China has officially announced negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with Vice Premier He Lifeng set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during a visit to Switzerland [2] - Despite a decline in US stock indices, futures indicate a potential rise in US stocks following the news of tariff negotiations [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated around 7.2250 after a significant rise earlier in the week [2] Group 4 - Although there are signs of policy easing and the initiation of US-China tariff discussions, the A-share market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase until more substantial positive news emerges [3] - The path to achieving results from the tariff negotiations may be lengthy, and unexpected developments during the talks cannot be ruled out [3] - The market is also awaiting the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, which have not yet materialized [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.5% to 1.4% and reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points to support the economy potentially slowing due to trade tensions with the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC's 7-day reverse repo rate is now set at 1.4%, a decrease of 0.1% [1] - The reserve requirement ratio has been lowered by 0.5 percentage points, allowing financial institutions to reduce deposits at the central bank and enhance their lending capacity [1] - It is anticipated that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will also decrease by approximately 0.1% following this rate cut [1] Group 2: Economic Support Measures - The aim of these monetary policy adjustments is to lower overall interest rates and support the economy, which may be impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade disputes [1] - The PBOC predicts that the reduction in the reserve requirement ratio will provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [1] - In response to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, the PBOC plans to introduce 500 billion yuan in low-interest loans aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Focus - There is an emphasis on boosting the sluggish real estate market, with intentions to lower mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers [2] - The PBOC aims to implement further easing policies to mitigate the economic impact of U.S. tariff-related tensions [2]

菲律宾4月通胀率落在菲中央银行预测的1.3%至2.1%之间。此前，鉴于通胀预期持续回落，菲央行在今 年2月暂停降息后，于4月再次将关键政策利率下调25个基点至5.50%，并暗示未来将以"小步伐"方式继 续其宽松政策。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 菲律宾4月通胀率降至1.4% 创五年多新低 中新社马尼拉5月6日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾国家统计局6日发布数据显示，该国4月通胀率进一步放缓 至1.4%，创下自2019年12月以来的最低水平。 数据显示，菲律宾4月通胀率较3月的1.8%有所下降，与去年同期相比亦下降2.4个百分点。今年前4个 月，菲律宾平均通胀率为2.0%。 菲律宾4月通胀率继续回落的主要原因是食品和非酒精饮料价格同比涨幅显著放缓，从上月的2.2%降至 0.9%；而交通价格同比降幅则进一步扩大至2.1%，高于3月的1.1%。此外，服装与鞋类、资讯通信、娱 乐文化及个人护理等价格涨幅也有所收窄。 菲律宾4月食品通胀率为0.7%，远低于上月的2.3%和去年同期的6.3%。其中，大米价格同比降幅从3月 的7.7%进一步扩大至10.9%；蔬菜及豆类价格同比涨幅由6.9%降至2.3%。整体来看，食品 ...