智通财经APP获悉，加密货币市场抛售潮毫无缓和迹象，市值最小、风险最高的代币正首当其冲。追踪 100种数字资产中50种最小市值币种的MarketVector数字资产100小盘指数，于上周日跌至2020年以来的 最低水平。 这一低点出现之际，最大加密货币比特币抹去了今年以来30%的涨幅，而就在几周前，它才刚刚创下历 史新高。被视为高风险投机情绪晴雨表的"山寨币"，在2025年的表现远远落后于其他市值更大的币种。 在以往的加密货币牛市中，受益于交易员对高风险、高回报押注的追捧，小盘代币指数往往跑赢大盘代 币指数。但去年美国批准比特币和以太币交易所交易产品(ETP)后，这一趋势发生逆转，这类产品成为 机构资金流的焦点。 过去五年间，加密货币小盘指数下跌近8%，而大盘指数飙升约380%，凸显出该板块已大幅失宠。 澳大利亚对冲基金Apollo Crypto的投资组合经理普拉蒂克·卡拉表示，散户交易员正从以往的市场周期 中吸取教训。"潮水涨起并非所有船只都能扬帆——只有优质资产才能受益，"他补充道。 整个加密货币市场仍未从10月10日的崩盘事件中恢复。该事件引发了约190亿美元的清算，所有代币的 总市值蒸发超过1万亿美元 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - This week, 33 new funds are set to launch, with equity funds making up two-thirds of the total offerings, reflecting a strong interest in equity investments amid market fluctuations [1][4]. Fund Launch Details - A total of 26 out of the 33 new funds will start issuing on Monday, November 17, accounting for 78.79% of the week's new funds. The average subscription period for these new funds is 21.27 days, which is longer than previous periods, likely due to recent market conditions [2][4]. - The longest subscription period is for the China Aviation Xiangtai 6-month closed fund at 89 days, while the shortest is for the浦银安盛港股通消费 and 广发上证科创板100增强策略ETF联接 at just 5 days [2]. Fund Types and Goals - Among the new funds, 22 are equity funds, representing two-thirds of the total. There are 10 index equity funds, with two tracking the CSI 500 index. The funds also include a variety of themes such as high dividend and technology growth [4][5]. - 18 of the new funds have specified fundraising targets, with five aiming for 8 billion units. The lowest target is set at 1 billion units for two specific funds [3]. Fixed Income and FOF Products - In the fixed income category, only 7 new bond funds are being launched, indicating a decline in interest for pure bond funds as equity markets recover. However, "fixed income plus" funds are gaining traction [6][7]. - Four mixed-asset FOF products are also being introduced this week, reflecting a growing investor preference for diversified investment strategies. The average return for FOFs that have been established for over six months is 14.29% [8][9].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance from November 10 to November 14, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.26% to 26,572.46 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.42%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.41% [1][2] - Among the primary sectors, seven sectors saw gains while four experienced declines, with real estate, healthcare, and consumer goods leading the gains at 5.58%, 5.13%, and 4.74% respectively [2] Liquidity Analysis - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 233.12 billion, an increase of HKD 2.59 billion from the previous week, while the average short-selling amount decreased by HKD 1.11 billion to HKD 28.36 billion [3] - The net inflow of southbound funds totaled HKD 24.77 billion, a decrease of HKD 13.91 billion compared to the previous week [3] Valuation and Risk Appetite - As of November 14, the Hang Seng Index had a PE ratio of 12.05 and a PB ratio of 1.24, reflecting increases of 1.53% and 1.44% respectively, placing it at the 86% and 91% percentile levels since 2019 [4] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was recorded at 4.16%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average [4] Investment Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a cautious risk appetite, with a rotation of hot sectors anticipated, leading to a potential continuation of a volatile trading environment [5] - Investment recommendations include focusing on cyclical stocks that may rebound due to changing supply-demand dynamics and dividend stocks as a defensive strategy amid uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, closing up by 0.95%, driven by improved market risk appetite and a decrease in domestic copper social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The easing of the U.S. federal government shutdown crisis has led to improved expectations for dollar liquidity, resulting in a noticeable warming of market risk appetite [1] - The hawkish stance of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic, who announced his retirement in February, has shifted expectations towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper mining sector remains tight, with ongoing attention to its impact on the smelting sector [1] - Recent downstream demand for copper has been relatively stable, and domestic refined copper social inventory has not continued to accumulate [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic outlook has turned positive, suggesting that copper prices will maintain high-level fluctuations without significant downward pressure in the short term [1] - The fundamental aspect to monitor is whether the impact from Indonesian mines can lead to a reduction in non-U.S. refined copper inventory [1]

Group 1 - The euro has risen for the seventh consecutive day, surpassing the 1.1630 mark, reaching a new high [1][3] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a moderate recovery in market risk appetite [1][3] - Eurozone industrial production is expected to rebound in September [1][3] Group 2 - Investors are celebrating the restart of the U.S. federal government, maintaining a mild upward trend in the currency pair, with attention on the upcoming Eurozone industrial production data [3] - U.S. President Trump signed a bill to end a 43-day government shutdown, allowing for the release of delayed macroeconomic data, although warnings were issued regarding potential delays in October employment and inflation data [3] - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials persist, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others downplay labor market weaknesses and emphasize inflation risks [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and the outlook on Federal Reserve policies [1][2] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,195 per ounce, supported by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. House passed a funding bill, ending the longest government shutdown in history, which will keep the government operational until January 30 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views on monetary policy, with some indicating a tight policy stance while others await clear signs of inflation returning to the 2% target before considering rate cuts [2] - The end of the government shutdown has improved market sentiment, but the resumption of economic data releases and Federal Reserve statements will dominate future market movements [2] - Gold prices are showing resilience near the $4,200 mark, indicating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup predicts that under a bull market scenario, gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2027, driven by a significant mismatch between global wealth and the relatively small physical gold market [1][8][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The report estimates that a mere 1.5% increase in global household wealth allocation to gold would require 18 years of mining supply to meet the demand, indicating a severe imbalance that can only be rectified through soaring prices [1][12]. - Currently, gold supply accounts for approximately 0.1% of global household wealth, and increasing the average allocation from 3.5% to 5.0% would necessitate an amount equivalent to 18 years of global gold mining output [12][25]. - The physical gold market is experiencing a significant "gap," estimated to exceed 1,000 tons annually, indicating that new purchasing demand far exceeds the supply from mining and recycling [25]. Group 2: Price Predictions - In a bull market scenario with a 30% probability, gold prices are expected to reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2027, with a forecast of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5][11]. - The base case scenario predicts a gradual decline in gold prices to $3,650 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a 50% probability assigned to this outcome [5][13][14]. - A bear market scenario, with a 20% probability, could see gold prices drop to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 or 2027 [14]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The primary driver of the recent surge in gold prices has been U.S. investors, with net inflows into gold ETFs in the U.S. accounting for 60.9% of the global total since 2025 [20][22]. - The net investment demand is running at an annualized rate exceeding $350 billion, marking a historical high [21]. - This strong investment demand reflects investors' strategies to hedge against potential economic slowdowns due to high U.S. interest rates and tariff policies [23]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Current gold valuations are considered "very expensive," with multiple indicators reaching 50-year highs [15]. - The price of gold is significantly detached from production costs, with high-cost gold miners achieving profit margins at their highest levels in nearly half a century [18]. - The share of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has risen to nearly 35%, the highest level since the mid-1990s [19].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - **Aluminum**: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - **Alumina**: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - **Tin**: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - **Silver**: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - **Cotton**: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - **Corn**: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - **Short Fiber**: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - **PP**: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - **PVC**: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The temporary end of the U.S. government shutdown has boosted market risk appetite, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, with COMEX and London spot gold both surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking the largest increase in November [2] Market Reaction - On November 10, gold prices surged, with spot gold reaching above $4140 on November 11, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - If upcoming economic data or Fed officials' statements reinforce the expectation of a December rate cut, gold prices may continue to rise [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices need to hold above $4130 to test higher levels of $4150-$4200 [2] - There is a risk of technical pullback due to accumulated profit positions after consecutive price increases, with key support levels identified in the $4080-$4100 range [2] Investment Strategies - For aggressive investors: Consider light long positions if gold prices pull back to the $4100-$4110 range, with a stop-loss set below $4080 and a target near $4150, potentially extending to $4180-$4200 [2] - For conservative investors: It is advisable to wait for clearer market direction, with a potential follow-up if gold effectively breaks the $4150 resistance or caution if it falls below the $4080 support [3] News Impact - The reopening of the U.S. government will lead to the release of previously delayed economic data, such as the non-farm payroll report, which are crucial for assessing the U.S. economy and Fed policy direction [4] - Close attention should be paid to statements from Fed officials, particularly Chairman Powell, as any dovish or hawkish signals regarding interest rates will directly impact the gold market [4] - Market sentiment, including movements in U.S. stock markets and the dollar index, will also influence gold prices, with rising risk appetite potentially suppressing gold and market panic boosting it [4]