期货研究报告 核心观点 上周金价整体呈现震荡上行走势。宏观层面，多空因素交织：一 方面，美元指数在连续调整后触底回升，对以美元计价的黄金构成压 制；另一方面，日本央行加息落地，全球市场流动性预期改善，又为 金价提供了支撑。在此环境下，纽约金价多次尝试上攻每盎司4380美 元关口，但均遇阻回落，与之对应的国内沪金亦在每克 980 元附近面 临明显的技术阻力。这表明当前价位附近多空博弈激烈，市场分歧有 所加大。周五夜盘内外金价均站上阻力位，短期上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，自10月底中美元首在釜山举行会晤以来，全球市场 风险偏好持续回暖，黄金价格整体维持高位震荡格局。目前金价已再 度逼近 10 月末形成的阶段性高点，技术层面压力逐渐显现。后续需 密切关注价格在关键阻力区域的表现，若无法有效突破，短期可能延 续震荡整理态势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 贵金属 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贵金属周报 日元加息落地，市场流动性回升 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it is under pressure but also supported, showing a range - bound trend. The medium - term view is oscillatory. The intraday view is bullish. The reference view is range - bound [1][5] - Policy support leads to strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026, and as policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will gradually recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing strong support. However, there is insufficient motivation for policy to continue to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the policy support expectation and the net inflow trend of funds remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded slightly last Friday. With policy support, there are strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026. As policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing support. But there is insufficient motivation for policy to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5]

12月19日，消息面：周五（12月19日）亚市尾盘，现货黄金短线出现一波跌势，目前金价位于4318美 元/盎司附近，日内下挫近15美元。受到多种因素的拖累，周五金价走低。美国CPI疲软削弱了黄金作为 通胀对冲工具的地位。此外，美元买盘的回升以及积极的市场风险偏好情绪，也对金价构成额外的下行 压力。 现货黄金： 技术面：从1小时级别观察，黄金目前处于高位震荡偏弱修正阶段，但整体趋势尚未发生反转。结构 上，前期冲高后未能延续涨势，多次上攻均遇阻回落，短线进入区间整理格局。现阶段价格回落至区间 中下沿，属于上涨后的正常消化过程。均线方面，价格已回到短期均线及布林带中轨附近；布林带未明 显开口，显示波动仍在可控范围内，短期或延续震荡整理。黄金的第一个上行阻力位出现在布林带的上 边界4352美元。如果突破这一水平，可能表明买家准备入场并维持回升至历史高点4381美元，进而挑战 4400美元的心理关口。另一方面，如果看跌蜡烛开始出现且价格保持在12月17日的4300美元低点以下， 卖方可能会获得牵引力，将金价拉向12月16日的4271美元低点。进一步下行，下一关注的支撑位是100 日EMA的4257美元。晚间重点关注上方 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. In the short term, the policy is in a window period, and the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient. The policy is expected to focus on the first quarter of next year. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, but if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. As the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, market risk preference will gradually recover [5]. - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term views are both "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "range - bound", with the core logic being the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the view reference is "range - bound". The core logic is the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "strong - biased", and the medium - term view is "shock", with a reference view of "range - bound". Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1672.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 162.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, and the stock index remains within the shock range. In the short term, due to the policy window period, the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient, and the driving force of policy benefit expectations is weak. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, and the driving force of funds is also weak. However, if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. Overall, the stock index is range - bound in the short term [5].

海外市场点评 11 月美国 CPI：能否扭转降息定价？ [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 在降息预期大幅放缓的背景下，年内最后一份通胀数据能否扭转当前的降息定 价？其中，3%可能是一个重要的心理关口。值得期待的是，如果 CPI 同比重回 3%以下，可能会一定程度上提振市场风险偏好，并为年末可能的美股"圣诞行情" 打开空间；相反，如果 CPI 超预期上行，则将会进一步锁定美联储的"鹰"派立 场。 不过我们认为，本次通胀数据对市场的实际影响或相对有限，主要原因在于： 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 一方面，数据本身的质量问题依然值得担忧。由于政府长达 43 天关门的影响，10 月通胀数据以及 11 月环比数据缺失，可供市场解读的信息有 ...

【机构观点】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月18日上海黄金现货价格报价975.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（980.50元/克）贴水5.5 元/克。 美国据悉准备在普京拒绝和平协议的情况下对俄实施新一轮制裁。 美联储理事沃勒周三表示，鉴于市场担忧就业市场疲软，美联储仍有降息空间。沃勒表示："我仍然认 为，我们可能距离中性利率还有50到100个基点的差距。"这意味着美联储仍有降息空间。沃勒表示，鉴 于目前的经济前景，"没有必要急于降息"，在通胀可能趋于温和的经济环境下，"我们可以稳步地将利 率降至中性水平"。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月18日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 980.50 | 0.33% | 241116 | 196752 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 宝城期货：市场的风险偏好持续回升 金价呈现高位震荡态势 昨夜金价偏强运行，纽约金一度站上4380美元，沪金站上980元关口。宏观层面，自上周五以来，风险 偏好均下降明显，这表现在美股高位持续下挫，因此避 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strength in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - High-volatility sectors such as telecommunications, AI in the ChiNext, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1] Investment Trends - Incremental capital is flowing into the market, with the CSI A500 ETF leading in turnover, totaling 45.291 billion yuan among the top five ETFs, and the overall A500 ETF turnover reaching 52.575 billion yuan, more than three times that of the CSI 300 ETF [1] - There is a noticeable increase in net subscriptions for several core broad-based products, indicating a concentrated allocation of funds towards core A-share assets after a market correction [1] Economic Outlook - The current market sentiment is moderately positive, with a marginal recovery in risk appetite [1] - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Makoto Nakada, warned against premature interest rate hikes, advocating for fiscal and growth policies to elevate neutral interest rates, which is interpreted as a constraint on the pace of central bank rate hikes and positively impacts market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - The prevailing market themes include technology (AI industry chain), anti-involution, and external demand-driven manufacturing recovery [2] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization, as evidenced by Oracle's revenue and cloud business falling short of expectations, contributes to market volatility [2] - Despite the promising trends in AI, concerns about stock price divergence from fundamentals exist, suggesting a focus on tangible asset expansion opportunities, particularly in the power-related non-ferrous sector [2] Real Estate and Inflation - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with housing prices declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive for two consecutive months, influenced by gold prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] Debt Market - The bond market saw a slight rebound, although the weak performance in the fourth quarter was more pronounced than expected [2] - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, are approaching post-tax mortgage rates, indicating a gradual recovery in their investment value [2] - The 10-year government bond remains a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting its robust characteristics [2]

Economic Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about the economic outlook, predicting a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Commodity Insights Oil - The SC night market fell by 2.24%. Gasoline prices in the U.S. dropped below $3 per gallon, the lowest in four years [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2] Fats and Oils - November palm oil production in Malaysia was 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month, while exports fell by 28.13% to 1.212 million tons [2] - As of the end of November, palm oil inventories rose by 13.04% to 2.835 million tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] Coking Coal - The coking coal market showed narrow fluctuations, with total holdings remaining stable. Coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the profitability of steel mills has declined [3] - The market is expected to experience limited downward movement due to potential demand recovery and seasonal heating needs [3] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains while the communication sector lagged [11] - The financing balance increased by 4.842 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in capital flow [11] Domestic News - The Social Security Fund emphasized the importance of prudent investment operations and effective asset allocation to support national development needs [8] - The postal industry in China reported a cumulative business volume of 196.75 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [8] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean planting rate reached 94.1%, slightly below last year's rate of 96.8% [24] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been slower than expected, with a total of 2.7 million tons sold since October 30 [24] Sugar - The sugar market remains weak, influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected harvesting and India's production recovery [27] - Domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support to the market despite overall weakness [27] Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing downward fluctuations, with expectations for price stability in January due to strong loading conditions [29]

短期内，金银在触及阶段高位后出现技术性整理，属于上涨过程中的正常现象。随着关键经济数据陆续 公布，市场对未来利率路径的判断仍将反复修正，价格波动或有所加大。 对于后市，尽管白银相对黄金的估值已处于偏高区间，短线不排除出现轮动或回调，但在经济不确定性 尚未消散的环境下，贵金属作为对冲工具和资产多元化选择的核心地位依然稳固。综合来看， Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在货币政策预期、实物需求与资金流向多重因素支撑下，贵金属板块仍具备中长 期配置价值，本年度行情有望延续强势表现。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月16日，2025年以来，贵金属市场延续强势格局，白银表现尤为突出。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，制造业 数据不及预期令市场重新押注货币环境趋于宽松，美元承压之下，资金加速流入贵金属板块，成为本轮 行情的重要背景。 从价格结构来看，白银大幅跑赢黄金，金银比快速回落至历史相对低位区间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这 一变化反映出市场风险偏好阶段性抬升，资金更倾向于选择弹性更大的品种，以捕捉降息预期下的超额 收益。 制造业活动走弱被视为本轮上涨的直接催化剂。相关数据大幅低于市场预期，强化了对未来利率下行的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. The total market trading volume of the stock market was 1.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 46.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The recent contraction in stock market trading volume is mainly due to the lack of market driving forces and the decline in the enthusiasm of capital trading [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. However, the aggregate policy did not exceed expectations, shifting from "extraordinary counter - cyclical" to "both counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical." This means that the aggregate policy will still support the economy in 2026, but will also focus more on structural adjustment, with policy efforts tilting towards domestic - cycle consumption and technology [3]. - Since the pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target is small, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year. Policy efforts are expected to start in the first quarter of next year, and the short - term impetus from policy benefits is insufficient. The stock indices need to consolidate through fluctuations [3]. - At present, the stock indices are still within the fluctuation range. However, as the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment in the future, the market risk appetite will gradually recover. In general, the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - For options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 16, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.96% to 3.103; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.01% to 4.620; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.08% to 4.690; the CSI 300 Index fell 1.20% to 4497.55; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74% to 7181.62; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.52% to 7.126; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.40% to 2.812; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.92% to 3.060; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.17% to 3.367; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.08% to 2954.79; the STAR 50ETF fell 2.02% to 1.36; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.86% to 1.32 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 133.64 (previous day: 109.24), and the open - interest PCR was 90.66 (previous day: 99.95) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 was 11.63%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 10.66% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the trend charts, volatility charts, trading volume PCR charts, open - interest PCR charts, implied volatility curve charts, and at - the - money implied volatility charts for different terms of SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, and other options [9][20][33]. These charts visually present the performance and changes of option - related indicators over time.