固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 2026 年可转债年度策略： 内生时代，博弈稀缺 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-12-08 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20251205：六部委"供需适配政策"精准发力"新消费" 新消费有望逐步接棒传统消费，成为拉动我国商品消费的主要动力 目前四季度到 26 年一季度仍是抢筹建仓的重要窗口，26 年主线仍将围绕 双碳+AI 双驱动的"源网荷储"全线链条展开，网荷衔接段、泛储题材以 及荷载端侧软硬件方向优于源网传统概念，这其中"扩散"会成为变奏 曲，关注三个维度带来的边际弹性 1）大盘向中小盘扩散；2）核心题材 向边缘题材扩散；3）第一梯队向第二梯队扩散；其中转债本身仍以中小 盘边缘题材第二梯队标的为主的特征将充分受益于这一边际变化；同时 待发行转债主线含量明显上升，一级半、次新策略带来的超额收益将倒逼 转债投资人拥抱科技，转债供需格局进一步优化，主线标的可获得性进一 步改善，内生增长下再融资资产搁浅概率收敛，或摆脱转债发行即内卷的 外生增长下的怪圈，26 年胜负手或取决于 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 商贸零售 冰雪游贯穿雪假元旦，宝兰、琳朝均获亿元融资 1. 雪假落地助力冰雪经济发展，元旦假期延续冰雪游、避寒游主题 雪假落地助力冰雪经济发展。（ 1）12 月 1-5 日，新疆乌鲁木齐市、阿勒 泰地区首次实行雪假，覆盖区域内义务教育阶段在校生，叠加前后两 个周末，雪假长达 9 天。据光明网，12 月 2 日，阿勒泰地区接待游客 10.45 万人次，游客花费同比增长 21.25%，雪假形成学生带动家庭、 家庭辐射游客的消费联动效应。（ 2）12 月 3-7 日，吉林全省首次推出 雪假，鼓励义务教育阶段学生走进冰场、雪场。据新京报，北大湖、松 花湖、长白山万达等 39 家雪场、冰场宣布对雪假学生每天提供 3 小时 免费滑雪优惠，随行家长可享折扣；松花湖度假区日均接待学生及家 长群体超 3000 人次，雪道利用率较平日提升 60%。 元旦假期延续冰雪游、避寒游主题。据同程旅行，（ 1）冰雪游：元旦假 期各地飞往哈尔滨、长春、长白山、阿勒泰、乌鲁木齐等热门冰雪目的 地的机票预订热度不断走高；西南地区冰雪旅游热度逐步追赶东北地 区 ...

陈博彰在长沙新消费研究院调研。 陈博彰来到长郡中学调研学校发展和教育教学工作，检查督导食品安全"两个责任"落实情况。他强调，要始 终坚持教育优先发展，持续扩容优质教育资源，办好人民满意的教育。要时刻绷紧食品安全这根弦，严把采购、 运输、操作、分餐等关口，实现全链条、全流程闭环管理。要持续排查整治校园周边安全隐患，营造平安有序的 校园环境。 陈博彰来到碧湘楚巷、西文庙坪项目，调研城市有机更新与历史文化保护利用示范片区建设情况，听取居民 意见建议。他强调，要坚持规划引领，传承保护历史文化与在地文化，协调打通各方资源，引入多元新业态，推 动文商旅深度融合。要坚持以人为本，实现历史保护、功能提升和场景营造有机统一，让老街区焕发新生机，让 提质成果真正惠及原住民。 长沙新消费研究院是全国首家聚焦新消费的产业服务平台。陈博彰指出，要强化平台建设与数据支撑，深化 新消费数据资源分析运用与全周期服务，赋能新消费领域品牌孵化、投融资对接、人才集聚与产业生态构建，让 新消费成为推动全市经济增长的强大引擎。 12月6日，市委副书记、代市长陈博彰在天心区宣讲党的二十届四中全会、省委十二届九次全会精神，调研经 济社会发展情况。副市长周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Various regions are implementing multiple measures to cultivate new consumption scenarios and promote the "first launch economy," injecting new momentum into economic development [1] Group 1: New Consumption Scenarios - The "Guangde Three-piece Set," consisting of stewed pot, milk tea, and peach crisp, has gained popularity, attracting a large number of tourists from the Yangtze River Delta, with 573,500 visitors recorded in the past week, a year-on-year increase of 33.65% [3] - Guangde, located at the intersection of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, has leveraged the opening of the Hu-Su-Hu high-speed railway to enhance its appeal, launching special activities and providing free parking and bus services to meet the consumption needs of young consumers [5] Group 2: Promotion of First Launch Economy - Dalian has transformed its former electronics market into an immersive consumption space centered around "trendy play culture," integrating e-sports, anime themes, and smart technology, with over 1,000 promotional events held this year and 133 million yuan in consumption vouchers distributed to boost consumer activity [7] - Chengdu has seen the establishment of over 710 first stores this year, with more than 280 events such as first exhibitions and performances held. The city plans to establish 6,500 first stores and 100 economic landmark projects by the end of 2027 to continuously release consumption potential and enhance urban competitiveness [9]

今天《新闻联播》主要内容有：1.【践行新发展理念 中国经济行稳致远】创新引领 新质生产力蓬勃生 长； 2.【学习贯彻四中全会精神在基层】西藏：文旅深度融合助力高质量发展 吉林：让城市发展成果 更多惠及人民； 3."十四五"期间我国野生植物保护取得重要进展； 4.各地多措并举促进新消费； 5.政策 服务双升级 中国入境游强劲增长； 6.全国超千家三级医院帮扶中西部地区 提升医疗服务能力； 7.国内 联播快讯： （1）国家发展改革委全年下达以工代赈中央投资355亿元； （2）1—11月全国期货市场累 计成交额增长20.19%； （3）全球海上风电装机中国占比超50%； （4）广西南宁抽水蓄能电站首轮蓄 水完成； （5）广州白云机场年旅客吞吐量超7700万人次； （6）2025腾冲科学家论坛今天开幕； 8.国 际人士表示高市早苗错误言论无视历史 非常危险 日本人士敦促高市撤回错误言论； 9.俄称打击乌军工 设施 乌称袭击俄海港和炼油厂 美乌举行会谈 就"安保安排框架"达成一致； 10.国际联播快讯： （1）八 国外长敦促以色列双向重开拉法口岸； （2）联大通过决议延长近东救济工程处运作； （3）伊朗在霍 尔木兹海峡 ...

12月2日至5日，2025企业家博鳌论坛系列活动在海南博鳌举办。作为论坛的重要活动之一，国民 共"拾"光——2025新消费发展论坛于3日举办。政府人士、专家学者、企业代表齐聚一堂，共同探讨新 消费的发展趋势、共商产业升级路径、共话品牌成长未来。 2025企业家博鳌论坛系列活动由新华社品牌工作办公室、新华网（603888）、新华社海南分社主办，活 动以"链接全球，引领未来：'十五五'新机遇"为主题，包括世界500强、中国500强和行业领军企业家在 内的各界嘉宾汇聚一堂，共话"十五五"发展新机遇，共探新发展格局下企业发展的新路径、新作为。 在论坛现场，华彬快速消费品集团总裁彭滨围绕新消费趋势下的品牌发展、产品创新与产业协同，分享 了企业的实践与思考。 "真正的功能饮料无论是保健食品还是普通食品，一定要有卓越的产品设计和健康理念。"彭滨强调，满 足不同消费人群需要的健康饮品是饮料行业十分重要的战略定位。 据悉，2025企业家博鳌论坛上，华彬集团发布了焕然一新的战马产品。彭滨介绍:"新战马是建立在美学 和口味基础上，层次丰富。认证注册检验机构出具的功能试验报告显示，在被评价缓解体力疲劳作用的 4个对比评价试验项目中， ...

Group 1: Policy Insights - The joint policy issued by six ministries aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, marking a significant shift in consumption policy since the Fourth Plenary Session[6] - By 2027, the goal is to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, indicating a strong focus on new consumption[7] - The policy emphasizes the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, and fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats[6] Group 2: New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is characterized by a focus on emotional value and technological content, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional experiences over mere functionality[14] - The rise of short video platforms and the experience economy is reshaping both online and offline consumption scenarios, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction[16] - The Z generation and younger elderly populations are becoming the main consumer forces, driving demand for products that align with their values and emotional needs[26] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from an incremental consumption market to a high-quality development phase is driven by the need to address product homogeneity and enhance consumer experience[18] - The increasing middle-income population, projected to exceed 400 million by 2025, is expected to provide sustained momentum for consumption growth[20] - New consumption brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Laopuhuang are thriving due to their unique IPs and precise market positioning, demonstrating strong revenue growth[41]

2025年12月04日 证券研究报告 | 户外新消费研究：折叠自行车行业专题 高景气新消费赛道，龙头引领扩容与破圈 行业研究 · 行业专题 耐用消费品 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 0755-81981391 0755-81982606 010-88005446 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn chenweiqi@guosen.com.cn liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn lijing29@guosen.com.cn S0980520040004 S0980520110004 S0980523070003 S0980525080003 证券分析师：丁诗洁 证券分析师：陈伟奇 证券分析师：刘佳琪 证券分析师：李晶 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 折叠自行车行业：小而美&高增速的新消费赛道。折叠自行车以轻巧+便携+适应城市生活为核心特点，成为城市通勤及休闲运动的新兴工具； 技术工艺迭代路径从追求便携轻巧到兼具专业性能。2019-2024年全球自行车需求整体平稳，折叠自行车渗透率低、增速快，在全球的销量渗 ...

新华网海南博鳌12月3日电（记者 王忻 杨登媛）12月2日至5日，2025企业家博鳌论坛系列活动在海南博鳌举办。作为论坛的重要活动之一，国民共"拾"光 ——2025新消费发展论坛于3日举办。政府人士、专家学者、企业代表齐聚一堂，共同探讨新消费的发展趋势、共商产业升级路径、共话品牌成长未来。 来源：新华网 新消费驱动新动力：洞察趋势、提升品质、引领升级 消费一头连着民生福祉、一头连着经济发展，是促进民生改善的重要支撑，也是推动经济高质量发展的重要内生动力。 新华网党委书记、董事长储学军 新华网党委书记、董事长储学军表示，中国消费市场正经历由技术创新、品质升级和文化自信驱动的深刻变革，企业唯有洞察大势、积极作为，方能立于潮 头。企业必须将科技创新深植于发展基因，以前沿技术推动产品迭代与场景革新，让消费体验更智能、更便捷、更富想象力；深耕实体经济主阵地，推进产 业高端化、智能化、绿色化升级，在现代化产业体系中构筑核心竞争优势；坚守长期主义，以品质铸就品牌基石，以文化塑造品牌温度，在满足人民对美好 生活向往的同时，讲好中国品牌的精彩故事。 国家市场监督管理总局特殊食品安 全管理司副司长李晓瑜 国家市场监督管理总局特殊 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook for China's economy and stock market indicates a significant shift in global investors' perception, moving from a market lacking clear growth potential to one rich in growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, automation, and biotechnology [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese market is improving, with expectations for continued inflows in 2026 following a substantial valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - The MSCI China Index has shown significant valuation recovery, marking a milestone for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, leading to a renewed interest from global investors [2]. - Passive funds have seen a notable increase in inflows, while active funds remain cautious, with less than 5% of their global investment capacity allocated to Chinese stocks [3]. Group 2: Positive Economic Changes - Three positive changes in the Chinese economy have emerged since the "9·24" policy shift: 1. Enhanced policy responsiveness, with a focus on development and flexible adjustments [4]. 2. Resilience and innovation among Chinese enterprises, showcasing advancements in AI, smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [4]. 3. A shift in global investor focus from dollar assets to diversified allocations, with a growing interest in China's tech innovations [4]. Group 3: Policy and Infrastructure Investment - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to prioritize infrastructure investments in new areas such as underground pipeline renovations and green transition projects, driven by carbon reduction goals [5]. - Increased support for consumption through measures like birth subsidies and social security enhancements reflects a flexible and rich policy toolbox [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The market's driving logic is set to change in 2026, with a completed valuation recovery and a stable, reasonable valuation level that can attract new capital [7]. - The anticipated easing of global liquidity, including three expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, will support stock assets [7]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors aligned with China's long-term development, such as high-end manufacturing, AI, and biotechnology, while also including quality dividend-paying sectors like insurance [7].