交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂补货。9月货主流 在01贴水80成交，个别略高在01贴水75~78，略低在01贴水85，价格商谈区间在4590~4610附近。10月中上在01-60~65有成交。9 月下仓单在09-55有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-80。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA供应回归，叠加个别主流供应商出货，现货市场流通性尚可，且市场供需预期偏弱，现货基差逐步走低，价 格上，PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡为主，关注聚酯上下游装置变动及终端需求。 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and reach 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound and may follow the Malaysian trend to rise later, with a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the NOPA member's soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to drop by 5.8% compared to July. In China, downstream consumption has increased, but overall demand is down year - on - year, and soybean supply is sufficient, resulting in a situation of both long and short factors. Currently, soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price fluctuates narrowly [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the futures price will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, it will remain weak, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern between 15 - 17 cents per pound. Domestic sugar futures may stabilize around 5,500 due to the raw sugar rebound, but the rebound space is limited, and a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 2.4 Cotton Industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. 2.5 Egg Industry - Egg prices may rise to the annual high due to increased demand from traders, but the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may limit the increase. After traders finish restocking next week, egg prices in some areas may decline slightly [9]. 2.6 Meal Industry - The supply - weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues to suppress the price. Brazilian premiums are strong, providing cost support for the domestic market. In China, concerns about future supply are alleviated, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level. The cost support for domestic meals is strong, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,050 - 3,150 [11]. 2.7 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is under pressure due to increased slaughter, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is uncertain whether it can absorb the supply. After a short - term rebound, there may be further downside potential, and both futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price of Y2601 increased by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price of P2601 increased by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis of P2601 decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price of Ol601 increased by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis of Ol601 decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; palm oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; rapeseed oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 increased by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.2.1 Corn - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 5 yuan/ton, a 135.71% decline [2]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19 yuan to - 42 yuan/ton, an 82.61% decline [2]. 3.3 Sugar Industry 3.3.1 Futures Market - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 9 yuan to 5,517 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 23 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 2,891 lots to 381,607 lots, a 0.75% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 274 lots to 11,325 lots, a 2.36% decline [6]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis decreased by 9 yuan to 364 yuan/ton, a 2.41% decline; the Kunming basis decreased by 9 yuan to 329 yuan/ton, a 2.66% decline [6]. 3.3.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, a 12.03% increase; sales increased by 114 million tons to 1,000 million tons, a 12.87% increase; the national sales ratio increased by 0.66 percentage points to 89.60%; the industrial inventory increased by 5.78 million tons to 116 million tons, a 5.24% increase [6]. 3.4 Cotton Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the futures price of cotton 2601 increased by 22 yuan to 13,882 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase; the 5 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 35 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,295 lots, a 1.60% decline; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 118 lots to 4,899 lots, a 2.35% decline [7]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 15 yuan to 15,167 yuan/ton; the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1 yuan to 15,249 yuan/ton; the FC Index:M: 1% increased by 17 yuan to 13,388 yuan/ton [7]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, an 18.6% decline; industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a 3.5% decline; imports increased by 2 million tons to 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase [7]. 3.5 Egg Industry - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.39% increase; the futures price of the egg 10 - contract increased by 103 yuan to 3,126 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.41% increase; the basis increased by 19 yuan to 515 yuan per 500 kg, a 3.81% increase [9]. 3.6 Meal Industry 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline; the basis increased by 17 yuan to - 12 yuan/ton, a 58.62% increase [11]. 3.6.2 Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline; the basis increased by 23 yuan to 96 yuan/ton, a 31.94% increase [11]. 3.7 Pig Industry 3.7.1 Futures Market - The futures price of the main pig contract increased by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 470 yuan/ton, an 8.05% decline; the main contract's open interest increased by 2,009 lots to 81,062 lots, a 2.54% increase [13]. 3.7.2 Spot Market - The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it decreased by 250 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it decreased by 300 yuan to 13,050 yuan/ton; in Liaoning, it decreased by 200 yuan to 12,900 yuan/ton [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ2603 fluctuated strongly and closed at 6,032 yuan/ton. The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly this week, while the demand recovery may be limited. The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price, but it is difficult to drive up the price. The short - term geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on the cost, and the international oil price is under pressure. Affected by the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. The daily K - line of BZ2603 should pay attention to the pressure around 6,070 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The latest daily closing price of pure benzene futures is 6,032 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44; the settlement price is 6,021 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32. The trading volume is 4,149 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 596; the open interest is 12,379 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 80 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5,910 yuan/ton, 5,990 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 5,970 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi are 6,075 yuan/ton and 5,750 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 714 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 732.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 67.8 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.32; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 598.5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.5 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13; the weekly output is 45.55 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.22. The port inventory is 14.4 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5. The production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 118.2; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 76 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 74.98%, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.76; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.41; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.46; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 2 [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 15, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. From September 5th to 11th, the profit of petroleum benzene of PetroChina was 443 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 69 yuan/ton [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly this week, and the restart of some downstream parking devices may narrow the domestic supply - demand gap in the short term. However, the demand recovery may be limited due to the styrene maintenance cycle from late September to October. The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises may support the price, but it is difficult to drive up the price. The short - term geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on the cost, and the international oil price is under pressure. Affected by the upcoming new round of key industry stable - growth policies, industrial products mainly rose during the day. The daily K - line of BZ2603 should pay attention to the pressure around 6,070 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides investment outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). The outlooks range from bullish to bearish, with different trends and strategies recommended for each commodity [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Expected to be weak in the short term, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PXN compression positions should be stopped at a profit below $220. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and several domestic and overseas plants have restarted or are expected to restart. The PTA load is 76.8% (+4%), and future PTA plant restarts and new installations are expected [11]. - **PTA**: Likely to be weak, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PTA processing fees are in a downward trend, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, which will have a negative impact on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Expected to be weak, with a reverse spread strategy for the 1-5 contract. Supply pressure is increasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Rubber - Expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is affected by news of new tariff reforms in Mexico, which may increase the pressure on domestic tire exports [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Facing increasing fundamental pressure and short-term volatility, but with support from macro expectations. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to increased inventory pressure. It is recommended to short at high valuations [20][23]. Asphalt - Showing stable sales, with prices decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The weekly production decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous week, and both factory and social inventories decreased [25][40]. LLDPE - Expected to have a medium-term oscillatory market. PE demand is improving due to the peak season for agricultural film production, and supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the overall pressure is not significant [41][42]. PP - The market may be weak in the short term, but caution is needed when shorting at low levels in the later stage. The market may be oscillatory in the medium term. Short-term demand has improved, but cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Expected to be weak in the short term. The market is currently under pressure due to insufficient export profits and high alumina production and inventory. The market is difficult to resonate between futures and spot before alumina starts stocking [49][51]. Pulp - Expected to oscillate. The market is stable, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory digestion and macro news [55][58]. Glass - The price of glass sheets is stable. The domestic float glass market has mixed price changes, with slow market transactions [60][61]. Methanol - Expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure from high supply and support from improving fundamentals and anti-monopoly policies. The port inventory has increased significantly [63][66]. Urea - Expected to be weak, with a focus on spot transactions and macro sentiment. Although exports are accelerating, they are unlikely to compensate for the weak domestic demand. The overall inventory has increased [68][70]. Styrene - Expected to be bearish in the medium term. The cost center has shifted downward due to OPEC production increases, and the short-term downward space for pure benzene and styrene has expanded [72][73]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and stable demand [74][76]. LPG - Expected to have a short-term narrow and strong oscillation [78]. Propylene - Expected to be weak at high levels in the short term. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates have also declined [79]. PVC - Expected to oscillate at a low level. The PVC market has high production and inventory, and exports may slow down due to policy disturbances [88][90]. Fuel Oil - Short-term rebound with increasing volatility. Low-sulfur fuel oil has a slight rebound, and the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [91]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2510 contract is under pressure, while the EC2512 and EC2602 contracts are expected to have wide fluctuations [93].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【本周花生期货下跌，现货基差上涨，市场供应压力渐显】期货方面，本周收盘花生2511合约7774元/ 吨，环比上周下跌52元，跌幅0.7%。现货方面，河南南阳、山东临沂、河北衡水地区现货基差较上周 分别上涨82、182、82。 截至9月11日，国内花生油样本企业厂家花生库存65560吨，较上周减少7080 吨，因周度总到货量低于压榨量。本周新增1家油厂开秤，到货量约5220吨，较上周增加，多数油厂观 望，压榨开机需求低。 商品米市场以陈米去库存为主，节前备货需求未明显提升，食品厂采购刚需为 主，炒货等市场需求不及往年。当前处于新旧交替阶段，本周全国通货米均价周环比下跌0.07元/斤。 降雨影响产区花生上市，随着河北、山东上市量增加及河南麦茬上市临近，短期供应压力持续释放，压 制价格。炒货商、油厂等需求有限，采购谨慎，双节临近，下游消费不及往年。 策略为中性，暂无风 险提示。 ...

山东省发布的 136 号文对风电和光伏电价进行了规定，这对光伏行业有何影响？ 山东省发布的 136 号文规定了风电和光伏的电价，分别为 319 元/兆瓦时和 225 元/兆瓦时。对于光伏行业而言，这一价格相对较低，反映了产能过剩的问 题。山东作为全国最大的光伏装机省份，拥有约 9,000 万千瓦的装机容量，但 在现货市场上，其他地区的光伏电价也往往不理想。这种情况表明，在产能过 剩背景下，需要通过储能技术来优化能源利用，将过剩的风电和光伏产能存储 起来，在高峰时段再释放。 取消强制配储要求后，对储能行业有何影响？ 136 号文，26 年长协电价，储能盈利测算 20250914 摘要 山东等光伏大省现产能过剩，储能需求凸显。全国光伏装机容量巨大， 但现货市场电价不理想，表明需通过储能技术优化能源利用，存储过剩 产能并在高峰时释放。 取消强制配储短期内使市场预期悲观，但《新型储能规模化建设专项行 动方案》提出 2027 年达 1.8 亿千瓦目标，结合近年装机规模快速增长， 长期仍将显著增长。 国家及地方政府积极推动储能发展，通过容量电价机制（如甘肃 330 元 /千瓦/年）和充放电量补贴（江苏、安徽、新疆等地）等 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the corn market, including a review of the current situation and a forward - looking analysis. It suggests paying attention to the new grain listing situation. With new grain about to be listed, the price is expected to decline seasonally, but the decline rate may be slow due to low carry - over stocks. The market will be mainly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Section Summaries Corn Market Review - **Spot Market**: In the week of September 12, the corn spot price rebounded slightly. As of September 12, the national average corn price was 2366.08 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges, such as 2300 - 2420 yuan/ton in Shandong's deep - processing industry [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of September 12, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2234 yuan/ton, a low of 2192 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2197 yuan/ton (compared to 2224 yuan/ton the previous week). The basis of the corn main C2511 contract strengthened from 46 yuan/ton on September 5 to 102 yuan/ton on September 12 [2]. Corn Market Outlook - **CBOT Corn**: In the week of September 12, CBOT corn futures rose 2.87%. The US Department of Agriculture raised the US corn export forecast to a record level, offsetting the pressure of record - high production. Although the yield per acre was lowered, the planting area was increased, leading to an increase in production and a decrease in ending stocks [3]. - **Wheat Price and Corn Auction**: As of the week of September 11, the wheat price was stable at 2431 yuan/ton. The demand side was sluggish. Corn auction results showed different transaction rates for different types of auctions. The new - season corn's upcoming listing will reduce the feed substitution advantage of wheat [4]. - **Corn Starch Inventory**: As of the week of September 11, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 875,200 tons, a slight decrease of 16,500 tons (1.85%) from the previous period, but an increase of 10.42% compared to the same period last year. Due to pre - holiday stocking, the downstream demand improved, and the inventory pressure eased [5]. - **New Grain Listing**: The prices of dry and wet grains are diverging, with the Northeast being slightly stronger and North China being weaker. As new summer corn gradually comes on the market, it is in a seasonal downward trend. The supply of new grain is expected to increase in late September, and the futures market will be mainly volatile in the short term [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - expected interest rate cut and low overseas inventory support the zinc price, while high domestic supply and weak demand suppress it. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2510) fluctuated slightly up, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 83,700 lots and an open interest of 103,100 lots. The spot price weakened, and the basis changed from +55 yuan/ton the previous day to - 115 yuan/ton. With the continuous increase in domestic social inventory and the unfulfilled expectation of the downstream consumption peak season, the zinc price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2]. - **Variety Price**: There are 12 contracts of Shanghai zinc futures, with a total open interest of 221,749 lots, a decrease of 3,963 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract zn2510 decreased by 5,145 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The basis (spot - futures) on the day was - 115 yuan/ton, and the previous day's basis was +55 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply - side**: In August, domestic refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. Although some smelters will conduct maintenance in September, the production is expected to remain above 600,000 tons. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) remains at a high level of 3,600 yuan/ton, and smelters have high enthusiasm for production [7]. - **Demand - side**: The traditional "Golden September" peak season has not shown obvious improvement. The galvanizing start - up rate in North China increased by 5 percentage points to 65% month - on - month, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market price of galvanized sheets has weakened steadily [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The soybean oil futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract showing a notable drop and a significant reduction in open interest, indicating a growing sentiment of capital leaving the market. The sudden negative news regarding the US biodiesel policy and the high inventory levels at domestic ports jointly pressured the market. Despite the support from the high premium of the spot market, the fundamental bearish situation remains difficult to change. In the short term, the market lacks effective positive drivers, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the MPOB and USDA reports and the actual performance of pre - holiday stocking demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 10, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed a downward trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,256 yuan/ton, down 162 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.92%. The trading volume was 448,885 lots, and the open interest was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 512,750 lots, and the total open interest was 858,927 lots, a decrease of 21,352 lots from the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The soybean oil options traded 34,460 lots throughout the day, with an open interest of 87,808 lots, an increase of 2,445 lots, and 0 lots exercised [7]. 3.2 Spot Market The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,510 yuan/ton, the settlement price of the main contract y2601 was 8,322 yuan/ton, and the basis was 188 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors On September 9, commodity funds net - sold 1,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, 3,500 lots of corn futures contracts, 1,000 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - bought 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - sold 5,500 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current stainless steel market presents a dual - factor game pattern of "strengthened cost support and suppression from loose supply - demand". Technically, the narrow - range oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the price may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and a breakthrough requires a substantial recovery in demand or a signal of supply - side contraction [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel ss2511 futures contract oscillated strongly. It reached the lowest point of 12,880 at the opening and then rose to the highest point of 12,980, closing at 12,950. The trading volume was large at the opening and when reaching the highest point, and the open interest increased slightly throughout the day, with a trading volume of 109,512 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 stainless steel futures contracts show a normal market pattern with near - term contracts lower and far - term contracts higher. Near - term contracts have a larger price increase, while far - term contracts have a smaller increase. The total open interest of the variety is 287,952 lots, a decrease of 1,557 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract ss2511 is 123,179 lots, an increase of 5,300 lots, and the open interest of the second - main contract ss2510 decreased by 9,541 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract ss2511 has changed significantly, with a maximum of 275 yuan/ton, a minimum of 120 yuan/ton, and 130 yuan/ton on the day. In the spot market, taking the 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil plate with rough edges as an example, the prices in Foshan Yongjin, Wuxi Yongjin, Zibo Hongwang, and Shanghai Hongwang are 12,950 yuan/ton, 13,100 yuan/ton, 12,800 yuan/ton, and 12,950 yuan/ton respectively [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 10 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts have slightly increased, with a maximum of 100,431 tons and a minimum of 98,534 tons. On the day, it was 98,534 tons, a decrease of 422 tons from the previous day [8] 3.3 Influencing Factors - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel have support but no obvious decisive dominance. The first - phase benchmark price of nickel ore in September has decreased. Although there has been some rainfall in the main mining areas in the Philippines recently, the overall production and shipment have not been significantly affected, and the domestic arrival inventory remains at a high level. The trend of ferronickel is also strong, with a recent transaction at 955 yuan/nickel point in a southern factory, and the bottom support is strong. The profit has been repaired under continuous price corrections. The stainless steel spot prices are basically flat. The anti - dumping duty on South Korea's stainless steel thick plates from China has been implemented, and there are still disturbances in exports to the EU. Entering the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September", the short - term consumption growth rate is slightly faster, and the price is relatively firm due to cost support [9][10] 3.4 Market Outlook - On September 9, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 12,950 yuan/ton. The current market is in a game between strengthened cost support and loose supply - demand. Technically, the narrow - range oscillation pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, the price may maintain range - bound fluctuations, and a breakthrough requires a substantial recovery in demand or a signal of supply - side contraction [11]