Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industry, downstream, option markets, and industry news [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 8,980 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; Rapeseed meal is 2,344 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 42 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; Rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is -56 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 196,266 lots, down 7,936 lots; Rapeseed meal is 630,650 lots, up 10,459 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is -26,077 lots, up 2,154 lots; Rapeseed meal is -51,540 lots, down 1,748 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantity: Rapeseed oil is 3,866 sheets, down 10 sheets; Rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - Spot price: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9,478.75 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Import cost price of rapeseed is 7,490.98 yuan/ton, down 42.3 yuan. - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.78, up 0.03 [2] Substitute Spot Price - Spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; Annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit is 439 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 0%. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; Import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; Coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 17.91 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24 million tons, down 0.8 million tons. - Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.48 million tons, down 0.42 million tons; Rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 0 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.45%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.44%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.88%, up 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, down 0.64%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, down 0.61%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.5%, down 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.83%, down 0.11% [2] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower but remained above recent lows and the downward trend since early December. The most active March rapeseed futures contract fell 9.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 603.20 Canadian dollars per ton. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is watching China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Group 4: Market Views Rapeseed Meal - In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is still restricted, and oil mills are still shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the marginal supply increases slightly. There are also rumors that Cofco is inquiring about Canadian forward rapeseed, increasing the forward supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, bettering the supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed and constraining its market price. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal futures showed a slight increase in oscillation and may maintain narrow - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil declined in the first 20 days and export data improved. However, the 2026 biofuel quota released by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has raised doubts about the implementation progress of the B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, supporting its price. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports and enters the crushing process, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases and expectations rise, the forward supply pressure increases. In addition, the soybean oil supply is abundant, and its substitution advantage is good, so the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly for rigid needs. Recently, rapeseed oil has oscillated at a low level [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

成文日期: 20251219 研究品种:玉米淀 报告周期：日度 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 玉米淀粉期货日报 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251219）玉米淀粉期货 cs2601 合约以震荡为主。今 日收盘价为 2502 元/吨,今日的收盘价和上一个交易日的收盘价对 比增加了 3 元/吨。从成交情况来看,今天的成交量为 94462 手, 和 上一个交易日对比降低了 13283 手,而持仓量方面,截止今天收盘, 持仓量为 79131 手，相较于上一交易日持仓量降低了 25104 手。 图：玉米淀粉期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 大连商品交易所_日行情_20251219 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 品种名称 合约 | | ...

成文日期：20251222 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:沪锡 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 沪锡期货日报 1. 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日沪锡 2601 合约开盘以 344880 元/吨的高位直接上攻，受隔 夜伦锡收涨及宏观情绪偏暖带动、盘面快速触及日内最高点 347500 元/吨，最低下探至 335620 元/吨。今日成交量为 239865手。 图 1: 沪锡合约 2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货-同花顺期货通 2 现货市场 今日沪锡 2601 合约收盘价为 340440 元/吨，上海 1#锡锭当日 均价 340600 元/吨，基差为 160 元/吨。 3 影响因素 3.1 产业资讯 当前整体宏观影响偏中性,锡市吸引大量投机资金入场推升价 日线 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 同时提醒期货交易者,期市有风险,入市需谨慎! 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点评 23 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8780 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.68%，持仓 减仓 7830 手至 21.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580593 元/吨，较上一 交易日上调 15 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收 至 70 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 59225 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.91%，持仓减仓 3346 手至 13.2 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格下调 至 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格下调至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水扩至 6875 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态，因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定，厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期，工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振，短期延续偏强态势。硅厂大幅提升现货报价，部分咨询 网站坚持稳价发布。受银价持续攀升影响，电池片全尺寸及硅片价格上 涨，下游在协会新的配额要求下面临一定减产压力。交易所提高最小开 仓，盘面窄幅回调；收储消息支撑叠加新注册仓单有限，盘面升水收窄幅 度有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the industries mentioned in the report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral investment rating [7][8][10] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news. It offers investment suggestions and views on the future trends of these commodities [2][7][8] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite planned polyester factory production cuts, the short - term trend remains strong due to the tight supply expectation [7]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, with a positive upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads [8]. - MEG: Demand is weakening, and the price is expected to continue to decline. The mid - term trend is still bearish [8]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation. Port inventory accumulation suppresses market sentiment, but the human - mixed spot market is expected to strengthen in the long - term [10][12] Synthetic Rubber - It has entered an oscillatory phase. The previous upward trend has slowed down due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamental data of butadiene and synthetic rubber [15] Asphalt - It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price in East China is accelerating its decline. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively stable, but there are signs of inventory accumulation [17][28] LLDPE - Spot prices remain weak. Although the futures have rebounded, the market trading atmosphere is still sluggish. The supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand needs to be concerned [29][30] PP - The PDH profit is compressed again, and the trend is oscillatory and weak. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - There is a short - term rebound, but the high - yield and high - inventory pattern around the Spring Festival remains. The far - month contract has long - position value, but the upward price elasticity depends on large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [34][35] Pulp - It is oscillating. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weakly rigid. The supply - side port inventory pressure still exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream procurement trends [40][41] Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and processing plants purchase raw sheets as needed [43][44] Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port inventory is in a de - stocking pattern, and the macro - situation may drive a short - term rebound, but the upside space is limited [46][48] Urea - It oscillates in the short - term, and the mid - term price center is expected to rise. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the demand and cost factors jointly affect the price trend [50][53] Styrene - It oscillates in the short - term. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks of negative feedback from downstream product inventories [54][55] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply is decreasing, and downstream enterprises purchase on a "use - as - needed" basis [60] LPG - The market is suppressed by warehouse receipts, and the futures price has declined [62] Propylene - The spot market is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the start - up rate of related devices [63] PVC - The short - term rebound space may be limited. The high - yield and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and large - scale production cut expectations may appear after the 03 contract [71][73] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows a slight decline with increased short - term fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [76] Container Freight Index (European Route) - The near - month contract oscillates, and the far - month contract depends on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand situation of shipping capacity and freight volume, as well as geopolitical factors, jointly affect the price trend [78][87] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber follows the raw material price increase in the short - term, with compressed processing fees. Bottle chips also follow the raw material price increase in the short - term, and the market transaction is fair [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and watch. The market price is stable, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [95][96] Pure Benzene - It oscillates in the short - term. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026, with a chance of a bottom - rebound in the second quarter [99][100]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 LLDPE：转产及个别煤化工降负，现货仍偏弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 期货反弹，市场交投气氛延续疲软，上游、期现贸易商为完成年度销售目标，随行低报为主。下游工厂 谨慎观望，成交气氛清淡。需求边际转弱下产业持货意愿差，基差再度走弱，仓单暂停去化。中东、美国报 盘量级减少价格升水国内，内外价差倒挂，中东、美国船期因周转有延误，预计 26 年 Q1 到港或多。 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节弱稳，PE 乙烯、乙烷供应利润有所压缩。PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游 农膜有转弱，包装膜行业刚需维持，但近期下跌后中下游持货意愿转弱，上游年底让价出货，厂库小幅去化， 基差偏弱。供应端，广西石化逐步开车，12 月目前检修计划中性，部分 FD 转产及内蒙装置降负，中期仍需 关注存量高产能和需求转弱带来的供需压力。 【趋势强度】 LLDPE 趋势强度：0 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | ...

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 壬洋辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年12月24日 | | | | | | | | | | | 田阳 | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌幅 | 张跃 | | | | | | | | | 8320 | 8320 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | Y2605 | 7994 | 8002 | -8 | -0.10% | 期价 | | 甚差 | Y2605 | 326 | 318 | 8 | 2.52% | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 05 + 500 | 05 +500 | 0 | ﺗ | | 28264 | 仓单 | 26264 | 2000 | 7.61% | 标相温 | | | | | | | | 12月23日 | 12月22日 | 张跌幅 | 涨跌 | 8370 | 8270 | 100 | 1.21% | ...

成文日期：20251218 研究品种:苹果 报告周期: 日报 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 型期货目报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251218），期货品种苹果 AP2605 合约震荡下行，当 日收至 9068 点，较昨日下跌 0.95%,全日成交 200113 手，持仓 162157 手，较上一交易日增加 19889 手。 数据来源:国金期货博易大师 1.2 品种价格 当日苹果期货各合约全部下跌,成交量 214210 手,品种持仓 量 187560 手，较上一交易日增加 19146 手。 图:苹果期货日行情表 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图：苹果 AP2605 分时图 | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 警低价 | 今收营 | 令结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 増減量 | 成交额(万元) | 交割合 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

综合来看，铸造铝价格表现较好主要得益于成本端废铝的支撑，预计后续将维持高位震荡走势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ccmn铸造铝合金市场分析： 宏观层面，本周适逢圣诞周且三季度GDP数据即将公布，市场交投情绪趋于谨慎。不过，全球股市走 高、油价上扬，推动风险情绪显著升温，改善了金属需求前景，铸造铝期货市场氛围偏暖，期货价格震 荡走强。 基本面方面，年底铸造铝供需两端均出现一定程度的减量，市场陷入僵持。成本端，铝合金价格持续高 位运行，而冶炼端因面临亏损压力，开工率难以提升，供应端产能释放受限。需求端表现反复，叠加交 割压力，对价格形成压制。但终端有汽车消费市场订单提供支撑，现货市场交投氛围有所好转。铝合金 价格坚挺，激发持货商捂货惜售情绪，下游部分企业存在追涨补货举动，市场买卖交投活跃度略有提 升，今日整体成交表现良好。 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2602合约偏强震荡，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报21290元，涨140元，涨幅0.66%，全天成交量4594手增加259手；持仓量17184手减少32手。 ...