马年启幕，科技成长主线仍然如火如荼前进。2025年以来，围绕公募基金高质量发展主线与市场机遇， 大成基金持续推出"科技远光灯"系列优质投资者教育活动。1月29日，大成基金"科技远光灯"投教同行 会上海专场成功举办。 活动期间，指数与期货投资部执行总监孙雨、股票投资部基金经理郭玮羚分别进行深度分享。其中，孙 雨以"乘势而上.行稳致远"为题，对2026年度市场特征以及指数布局策略进行解读。郭玮羚则紧密贴合 市场热点，对其擅长的科技成长风格投资进行分享，解析2026年度科技板块产业投资机会，对产业链关 键环节及其投资逻辑进行专业分析。 孙雨指出，2026年开年，市场行情呈现典型的资金驱动特征，存在一定"春季躁动"特点。在无风险利率 持续下行的背景下，银行理财收益率走低，权益资产成为多元配置中的优选。政策层面持续引导中长期 资金入市，险资、理财等机构资金稳步增配，为市场构筑了坚实的基础。 孙雨强调，当前行情本质是"强预期弱现实"，情绪与资金主导短期波动。在科技成长主线持续活跃的背 景下，也需警惕部分赛道交易拥挤与估值偏高带来的回调风险。投资者应树立"慢牛长牛"思维，在拥抱 趋势的同时保持理性，方能行稳致远。 在"金字 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week (2026.01.26 - 2026.01.30), the A - share market was volatile and differentiated, with high trading volume, extreme differentiation, and rapid rotation. The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification, and it's advisable to focus on mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [2][3][11][12][13] - The bond market was volatile last week, and the current environment is favorable for the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80%. In the context of increased volatility in the equity market, the relative value of bond coupon allocation has increased [4][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds, aiming to guide the industry to focus on the concepts of "long - term investment and value investment" [5][17] Weekly Market Observation 1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.1%, the CSI 500 fell 2.6%, and the ChiNext fell 0.1%. The market was characterized by extreme differentiation and rapid rotation under high trading volume, with more stocks falling than rising [2][11] - Market funds were in a fierce game between inflation trading and the technology growth theme. "Price trends" were the guiding principle in the first half of the week, and later, policies and performance became the main drivers of style switching. The annual performance forecast disclosure was a key factor for individual stock trends [3][12] - The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification. Funds tended to seek more balanced and performance - supported allocations, and it's recommended to focus on mid - stream industries [13] 1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week, the bond market was volatile. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.30%, the 10 - year yield declined 1.86BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.19BP to 2.29%. The 10 - year yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80% [4][14] - The current environment is favorable for the bond market. The central bank maintains stable liquidity, and the cautious economic growth targets in many places ease the market's expectations of strong fiscal stimulus. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [4][14] - Last week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened. The 1 - year yield declined 5BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year yield declined 8BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2BP to 4.26%. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman affected the U.S. Treasury yield curve [15] - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.47% last week, with municipal environmental protection and highways leading the gains. Ten new public REITs made progress in the primary market [15] 1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds. The new rules require adding the medium - to - long - term performance of the past 7 and 10 years, no longer disclosing the past 1 - month performance, and adding disclosure requirements such as fair trading, employee fund - holding, and trading unit leasing [5][17] Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and balance the style according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index [21][22] 2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [25] - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 [25][26] - **Growth Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [29] 2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 15 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [32][33] - **Consumer Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumer industry. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index [33][34] - **Technology Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index [37] - **High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [42][43] - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [45][46] 2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy**: The index aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smoothly upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index [48] 2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [52] - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 medium - and long - term pure bond funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond and interest - rate bond funds according to the market [54] 2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center of less than 15%. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [57] - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25%. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [60] - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35%. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [63] 2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 convertible bond funds based on an evaluation system from multiple dimensions. The sample space requires a high proportion of convertible bond investment [66] - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [69] - **REITs Fund Selection**: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [70]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility and differentiation in the A-share market, with significant trading activity and a tendency for individual stocks to decline more than rise, indicating a competitive environment between inflation trades and technology growth themes [3][8][10] - The market's performance is influenced by price trends in commodities and technology sectors, with notable fluctuations in gold, silver, copper, NAND flash memory, and cloud computing services, reflecting a high sensitivity to marginal changes [3][10] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to negative investment growth across various industries, suggesting a future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under fiscal stimulus and economic recovery, reinforcing performance recovery for leading companies [3][10] Group 2 - In the bond market, there was a mixed performance with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 1.80 basis points to 1.30%, while the 10-year yield fell by 1.86 basis points to 1.81%, indicating a stabilizing trend in the bond market [4][11] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable liquidity supports the bond market, and cautious economic growth targets in various regions alleviate expectations for strong fiscal stimulus [4][11] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is gradually improving, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may trend down towards 1.80% in the near future, enhancing the relative value of bond coupon allocations [4][11] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has proposed new guidelines for public fund disclosures, emphasizing long-term performance over short-term results, which aims to promote a focus on long-term and value investing within the industry [13][14] - The new disclosure requirements include the addition of long-term performance metrics for funds over 7 and 10 years, and the elimination of one-month performance disclosures, reflecting a shift towards more sustainable investment practices [13][14]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the market, focusing on various sectors including technology, resources, and financial services. The analysis highlights the performance of indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and the Shanghai Composite Index. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a weakening momentum, necessitating risk control and attention to the 20-day moving average and external factors affecting resource prices [1][3] - In January, the first three weeks saw strong performance from small-cap indices like CSI 500 and CSI 1000, but a cooling trend began in the third week, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 breaking below the 20-day moving average [2][4] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with expectations of a prolonged adjustment phase, potentially lasting six months to a year. The previous year's surge of 97.5% in the non-ferrous index makes it unlikely to replicate such gains this year [5][6] - The technology growth sector is showing signs of weakness, with various industries including defense, electronics, and computing experiencing pullbacks [6][7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio with a focus on sectors that are currently undervalued and have a high risk awareness. Caution is recommended for technology growth stocks due to potential short-term volatility [3][4] - Recommended sectors for investment include construction materials, electronics, and communication, which are considered to have a favorable risk-reward ratio [2][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The market is expected to enter a phase of strong oscillation leading up to the Spring Festival, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap growth indices [8][11] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to enter a bullish cycle, with a potential for upward movement despite current low market sentiment [9][10] Risk Factors - The volatility in global resource prices, such as a 35% drop in silver prices, is impacting related assets and indices, particularly those with significant exposure to non-ferrous resources [4][5] - The potential for further declines in small-cap indices if they do not rebound quickly is a concern, indicating a need for careful monitoring of technical indicators [4][8] Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities for growth anticipated towards the end of 2026. Investors are encouraged to adjust their portfolios accordingly and focus on sectors with solid fundamentals [11][18] Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators such as the 20-day and 5-week moving averages to make timely adjustments to investment positions [4][11] - The discussion includes insights on the cyclical nature of certain sectors, particularly those related to commodities and technology, suggesting a strategic approach to investing in these areas [13][15]

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 experienced a strong performance, following the equity market, with a total increase of nearly 20% by December 24, 2025, although it slightly underperformed compared to the broader A-share market which had a maximum increase of 31.9% [17] - The report highlights a significant shift in market style from defensive dividend stocks to technology growth stocks, driven by a recovery in risk appetite, which has led to an increase in the central price of convertible bonds and a compression of the conversion premium rate [8][19] - The supply-demand mismatch in the market is noted, with a slowdown in new bond issuance and a significant number of high-quality older bonds being redeemed, leading to a scarcity of quality assets and a heightened "old bond" phenomenon [8][25] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the macro liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential support from both domestic and international monetary policies, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The report suggests that the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting cycle could reshape the asset allocation landscape, benefiting cyclical resource sectors and technology growth sectors, particularly in the AI industry, which is expected to replicate the growth trajectory of the mobile internet era [10][9] - The consumer sector is characterized by resilient earnings but facing valuation pressures, with low price-to-book ratios and stable return on equity providing a safety cushion for investments [10][9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows signs of recovery, with the ChiNext index rebounding and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) leading in performance among similar ETFs, indicating potential investment opportunities in the technology sector [1][5]. Market Performance - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index regained the 4100-point mark, while the ChiNext index rose by 0.80% [1][5]. - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) increased by 1.42%, closing at 1.569 yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.09% and a trading volume of 12.12 billion yuan, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [1][5]. Top Holdings Performance - The latest quarterly report shows that most of the top ten holdings of the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) experienced price increases, including: - Ningde Times up 2.93% - Zhongji Xuchuang up 4.07% - Xinyi Sheng up 4.40% - Sunshine Power up 3.30% - Tianfu Communication up 11.92% [2][6][7]. Investment Outlook - Institutions like Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities believe that there is still significant room for growth in China's "transformation bull" market, with reform and transformation being the long-term themes [4][8]. - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) is viewed as a convenient tool for investors optimistic about China's technology growth sector, having achieved a return of 35.71% over the past three years, outperforming its benchmark [4][8].

Group 1 - A significant amount of capital is entering the market through public funds, with new fund establishment accelerating this year, surpassing 100 billion yuan in new fund issuance [1] - As of January 29, 2025, the total issuance scale of new funds reached 110.5 billion yuan, with 110 new funds established, significantly exceeding the 83.26 billion yuan from January 2025 [1] - Equity funds have emerged as the main contributors, with 85 equity funds established this year, totaling 76.81 billion yuan, and 22 of these funds exceeding 1 billion yuan in issuance [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in new active equity funds marks the first occurrence of multiple blockbuster funds in over three years, primarily managed by high-performing fund managers [2] - FOF products have also maintained high issuance momentum, with notable funds such as the Fuguo Zhihui Stable 3-Month Holding Period Mixed Fund (FOF) raising 4.19 billion yuan [2] - Since 2025, FOF development has accelerated, with issuance surpassing 80 billion yuan, exceeding the total issuance from 2022 to 2024 [2] Group 3 - The trend of new fund issuance continues, with an increasing number of funds announcing early closure of fundraising [3] - As of January 29, 2025, there are 89 funds currently in issuance, with 57 being equity funds and 15 FOFs [3] - Additionally, 29 funds have announced upcoming issuance, predominantly consisting of equity funds and FOFs [3] Group 4 - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the A-share market, with a focus on artificial intelligence as a key theme for the future [4] - Despite recent outflows from ETFs, the market's risk appetite remains optimistic, supported by ample liquidity and industry themes driving market momentum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence where the index shows stability while the majority of individual stocks are declining, leading to a situation where investors may earn on the index but lose on their accounts [1][3][12]. Market Performance - On January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24 points, up 0.27%, indicating a healthy trend, but only 1739 stocks rose while 3640 stocks fell, showing over 70% of stocks were down [3][4]. - The market is characterized by a "split" where large-cap stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, are driving the index up while smaller stocks are suffering [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The precious metals sector is seeing significant activity, with 84 stocks hitting the daily limit up, particularly in silver and gold, which surged by 10.75% and 4 consecutive days of gains respectively [4][10]. - Conversely, sectors like photovoltaic equipment, medical pharmaceuticals, and aerospace are experiencing sharp declines, indicating rapid sector rotation and volatility [6][10]. Capital Flow - Domestic institutional investors have net sold 43.5 billion yuan, with 33.8 billion yuan flowing out of the Shenzhen market, suggesting a strategy of profit-taking or portfolio reallocation [6][7]. - In contrast, foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of 12.5 billion yuan on the same day, marking the fifth consecutive day of inflows and over 30 billion yuan for January [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching a critical resistance level at 4188.23 points, which could trigger a significant market reaction depending on whether it breaks through or faces a pullback [9][12]. - The market's current state is influenced by both external factors, such as the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, and internal dynamics, including the rapid rotation of capital among sectors [9][12]. Investment Strategy - For aggressive short-term investors, participating in strong stocks at the right moment is advised, but with strict stop-loss measures due to the fast-paced market dynamics [12][13]. - For conservative investors, a strategy of patience and holding quality stocks is recommended, avoiding the temptation to chase after rapidly rising sectors to prevent losses from volatility [13].

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed significant structural differentiation, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 4150 points and closing at 4157.98 points, up 0.16%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.30% to 14300.08 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.57% to 3304.51 points, indicating a mixed performance across the market [3][6] - The beverage sector led the market with a notable increase of 6.74%, while the liquor index surged by 9.93%. Notably, the price of Moutai rose by 20 yuan to 1610 yuan per bottle, suggesting strong sales activity ahead of the Spring Festival [6][8] - The real estate sector also saw a rise of 2.48%, with several companies hitting the daily limit up. Reports indicate that some real estate firms are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, hinting at a potential easing of regulatory pressures [6][8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the liquor sector may benefit from improved sales activity before the Spring Festival, while the real estate sector could gain from expectations of regulatory easing. Resource stocks are expected to continue their strong performance due to rising prices and safe-haven demand [8][18] - The report emphasizes a focus on sectors such as photovoltaic (solar energy), commercial aerospace, and precious metals, which are seen as key investment themes in the current market environment [8][17] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity index continued its strong upward trend, with copper prices reaching new historical highs. The Shanghai copper price closed at 109,110 yuan per ton, while LME copper peaked at 14,125 USD per ton [11][12] - Precious metals also experienced significant gains, with gold and silver prices rising sharply, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weak US dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [11][12] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements [15][17] - The report highlights the ongoing strong performance of precious metals and industrial metals, suggesting that the momentum may continue in the future [18]