Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong recovery trend since mid-December, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 11 consecutive gains before the New Year, indicating a certain trend of recovery [1][5][28] - The "spring market rush" suggests that the starting point of the market has been advanced to November or December of the previous year, driven by optimistic policy expectations and clear economic trends [1][36][51] - The market is currently experiencing a structural rally, with significant participation from institutional and leveraged funds, and the inflow of incremental capital is evident [1][11][40] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that since 2011, there have been 9 instances of spring market rallies starting in Q1, with 4 instances starting early in November or December, primarily driven by policy expectations and liquidity easing [2][29][42] - The core sectors benefiting from the current spring market include technology growth, with a notable absence of financial sector leadership, which has historically been significant in previous rallies [3][30][53] - The market structure is expected to evolve with a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, while resource price increases and external demand may also play important roles [4][24][51] Group 3 - The current market sentiment remains strong, with trading volumes stabilizing above 2 trillion yuan in recent days, reflecting a preference for high-elasticity stocks [10][34][40] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide clear policy guidance, which is crucial for sustaining the current market momentum [7][36][45] - The market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, with potential adjustments depending on the inflow of incremental funds, suggesting a need for attention to low-position themes and sectors [3][30][51]

Group 1 - The report predicts that the A-share bull market will continue in 2026, driven by resilient overseas economies, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "dual easing" tone, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [4][7][8] - During the New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.76%, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology and materials sectors [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December, marking the first increase since April, driven by policy support and pre-holiday inventory buildup [8][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of service consumption policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a 2.95 billion yuan investment plan and 625 million yuan in special bonds to support consumption [9][10] - The real estate sector is expected to experience a significant divergence in policy expectations, with new housing sales projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11][12] - The public fund industry is expected to see a high-quality development trend, with new regulations aimed at reducing investor costs and promoting long-term holding of funds, potentially saving investors 51 billion yuan annually [12]

来源：中信建投证券研究 文|夏凡捷 A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年，多重利好推动港 股大涨，A股有望迎来开门红行情。行业主要围绕半导体、AI和未来产业热点展开。行业重点关注：半 导体、AI、非银、新能源，机械设备；中长期看好：有色（工业金属、小金属）、创新药等；主题重 点关注：商业航天、核电、人形机器人、海南（免税）。 A股开年能否迎来开门红？ 过去两年市场开年下跌有一个共性原因来自全球流动性变化和人民币的贬值压力。今年元旦市场面临的 流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。人民币汇率保持强劲，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎 来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整体宽松，也有利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利 好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面积极信号等多重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样 有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 元旦假期重要事件和对市场的影响 美国突袭委内瑞拉对市场有何影响？从短期看，我们认为作为2026年第一场战争，地缘政治的紧张将导 致黄金和原油价格阶段性上涨，避险资金则推动美元走强，由于未发展为大规模战争，整体影响预计有 限。中长 ...

2026 年 01 月 02 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情进行中，聚焦成长 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块整体延续博弈走势，但局部亮 点 可 能 更 为 凸 显 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.12.28 一 月 春 季 行 情 延 续 ， 科 技 和 周 期 占 优 2025.12.27 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1/18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 复盘历史，元旦后 A 股短期走势主要受政策和外部事件、流动性、海外股市走势 等因素影响。（1）2010 年以来的 16 年中有 11 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to slow to 4.6%, with a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [1][14] - Industrial production is projected to maintain steady growth, significantly supporting the overall GDP growth target [2][15] - External demand remains resilient, with export growth expected to continue positively [1][5] Production - The industrial added value growth rate for December is estimated at 5.0%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for 2025, significantly higher than GDP growth [2][15] - Improvement in demand is noted, driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and construction progress [2][16] - Manufacturing enterprises are experiencing improved production and market demand, with production growth slightly outpacing demand [2][16] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for December is expected to be 1.5%, a slight increase from 1.3% [3][19] - Policies supporting the replacement of old products are anticipated to bolster consumer spending, particularly in durable goods [3][19] - The automotive sector continues to face challenges with declining sales and increased discounts, impacting overall retail recovery [3][20] Investment - Fixed asset investment for 2025 is projected to decline by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 1.2% growth, while infrastructure and real estate investments are under pressure [4][23] - The investment environment has been notably weak since June 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth in 2026 [4][25] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments are expected to jointly drive growth in early 2026, with a projected increase of 2.5% for the year [4][25][30] Export - December export growth is anticipated at 3.9%, with an annual growth rate of 6.6% for 2026, supported by stable external demand from non-developed countries [5][5] - The stabilization of US-China trade relations and reduced trade friction with Europe and Japan are expected to benefit exports [5][5] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate for December is expected to be 0.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected at -1.9% [6][6] - The overall price level is expected to remain stable, with core CPI showing signs of recovery [6][6] Employment - The urban unemployment rate for December is projected to rise slightly to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors [7][7] - Continued policy support is expected to help stabilize employment, particularly for vulnerable groups [7][7] Monetary Policy - Financial data for December indicates continued pressure, with new loans and social financing expected to decline [8][8] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [8][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant changes in the public fund industry following the implementation of the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds," which marks a milestone in the fee rate reform aimed at optimizing mechanisms and reshaping the ecosystem for high-quality development [2][3][4]. Group 2 - The launch of the "Longying Plan" by China Construction Bank on January 1, 2025, signifies a strategic entry into the FOF market, providing customized asset allocation services and potentially stimulating further growth in fund issuance [3]. - The total scale of FOF funds reached 235.54 billion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting a nearly 70% increase compared to the end of 2024, indicating a robust growth trend in this segment [3]. Group 3 - The public REITs market received a boost with the release of a notification by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at promoting high-quality development, which includes support for stable operations and effective governance of listed REITs [5]. Group 4 - The ETF market achieved a significant milestone with a total scale of 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a more than 60% increase over the year, and the number of ETF products rose to 1,401, indicating a diversification of asset allocation tools [10]. - The competitive landscape of the ETF market is becoming clearer, with major players like Huatai-PB, E Fund, and China Asset Management leading in management scale, and several funds experiencing net inflows exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025 [10]. Group 5 - The public fund industry saw an overall net value growth of 28.73% in 2025, driven by a bullish A-share market, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index recording gains of 18.41% and 29.87%, respectively [11]. - The total net inflow of stock ETFs reached 484.74 billion yuan in 2025, highlighting strong investor interest in this asset class [12].

景顺长城余广：2026年或将延续科技成长主线，资源品和顺周期持续提供细分机会，同时红利如高股息品种仍然是阶段性确定器。 【导读】公募基金六大投资总监展望2026年：市场仍将"有为"，或现中国资产整体性的价值重估 A股走牛的2025年结束了，充满期待的2026年到来了！ 2025年，A股市场整体震荡上行，科技成长风格贯穿全年。2026年，A股市场会如何演绎？后续哪些板块值得关注？投资主线是什么？如何把握 投资机会？ 中国基金报邀请景顺长城总经理助理、股票投资部总经理余广，嘉实基金大科技研究总监、基金经理王贵重，永赢基金权益投资部联席总经理李 文宾，兴业基金权益投资部总经理邹慧，南方基金宏观策略部联席总经理唐小东，博时基金多元资产管理一部总经理兼多元资产管理一部投资总 监郑铮，六位公募"总监级"投资人士，一起畅谈2026年的市场走向和投资机遇。 嘉实基金王贵重：对2026年的整体市场与科技板块走势，我们的基本观点是：市场仍将"有为"，但挑战与复杂性显著增加，结构性机遇与上行阻 力并存。 永赢基金李文宾：2026年A股整体有望继续走强，股价是投资者对经济未来和信心的反映，我们相信这一反映一定是愈发强烈和坚定的。 兴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, resource sectors, and high-dividend stocks as key investment themes [2][10][18]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - The overall A-share market is anticipated to remain strong, with a shift from a policy-driven to a fundamentals-driven growth narrative [12][20]. - The global monetary environment is expected to be supportive, with the U.S. in a rate-cutting cycle, providing liquidity for the market [19]. - Structural opportunities and upward pressures will coexist, with challenges increasing in complexity [8][19]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A balanced allocation between value and growth stocks, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks, is recommended for 2026 [14][25]. - The focus on technology growth remains strong, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and new energy sectors, benefiting from global capital expenditure expansion and domestic policy support [20][30]. - High-dividend stocks are seen as stabilizers in the investment portfolio, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [30][21]. Group 3: Key Sectors to Watch - AI is expected to remain a primary growth driver, with specific attention to areas such as optical communication, storage chips, and domestic computing power breakthroughs [27][30]. - The innovation drug sector is highlighted as a long-term focus, supported by domestic healthcare policies [28]. - Resource sectors, including industrial metals and precious metals, are projected to benefit from supply chain restructuring and AI demand [30][21]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience a new trend driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to AI as a main theme [32][34]. - Key investment opportunities in Hong Kong are anticipated in technology, resources, and healthcare sectors, with a focus on high-dividend stocks [36][37]. - The influx of capital from mainland China is expected to continue supporting the Hong Kong market [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the optimistic outlook for the Chinese capital market in 2026, highlighting the potential for a sustained bull market driven by various factors including technological innovation, domestic consumption, and resource valuation [4][5][19]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the Chinese asset market underwent a comprehensive revaluation, with market activity significantly increasing and investor enthusiasm rising, leading to the A-share market's market capitalization surpassing one trillion yuan [4][19]. - The quality and structure of the capital market have improved, enhancing its inclusiveness and adaptability, which in turn strengthens its ability to serve new productive forces and benefit the public [4][19]. Group 2: Investment Strategies for 2026 - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2026: 1. **Technology Growth**: This is seen as the primary focus for market trends, with favorable policies and market consensus supporting sectors like new energy, aerospace, and advanced materials [5][19]. 2. **Domestic Demand**: Strengthening domestic markets and consumption is crucial, with a focus on companies that excel in traditional and emerging consumer sectors [6][20]. 3. **Resource Valuation**: There is a growing interest in resource commodities, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand dynamics, which could present new investment opportunities [6][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of a new decade for the company, with a commitment to adapting its research model to the evolving global economic landscape and enhancing the quality of its research outputs [7][21]. - The company aims to leverage its industry expertise and global research capabilities to provide impactful insights and support for strategic decision-making in the capital market [7][21].

Group 1 - The A500ETF Southern (159352) experienced a slight decline of 0.32% with a trading volume of 6.157 billion yuan as of the midday on December 31 [1] - The fund saw a net subscription of 134 million yuan yesterday, with a net inflow of 4.4 billion yuan over the past five days, and a total net subscription of 15.2 billion yuan over the past ten days [1] - The fund's scale increased from 22.642 billion yuan to 46.773 billion yuan over the year, marking a growth of 24.1 billion yuan or 106.58% [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the market focus may shift towards policy expectations and industry trends for the coming year, with a potential active performance in small and mid-cap growth style thematic investments [1] - Western Securities anticipates that the appreciation of the yuan will accelerate the repatriation of cross-border capital, reinforcing the trend of yuan appreciation, driven by China's strong industrial strength and export competitiveness [1] - Debon Securities maintains a positive outlook on the slow bull market, emphasizing the importance of industry catalysts and noting that the market liquidity environment remains loose [1] Group 3 - The A500ETF Southern closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which covers a broader range of industries compared to traditional indices like the CSI 300, including more leaders in emerging sectors such as power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [1] - Investors can utilize the A500ETF Southern and its linked funds (Class A 022434; Class C 022435) for a streamlined investment approach [1]