北京时间8月15日，国际黄金价格在高位附近出现回调，现货黄金交投在每盎司3333.50美元左右，较前 一交易日有所下跌。周四的下行压力主要来自美国通胀数据的意外走高，以及劳动力市场的持续韧性。 DLSM外汇平台认为这两个因素推升了美元与美债收益率，从而削弱了市场对美联储下月大幅降息的预 期。 目前的黄金市场更像是一次耐心与信念的考验。多头需要等待数据的转折点，而空头则寄望于美元与美 债收益率的持续攀升。在这种不确定性中，分批布局、保持仓位灵活，或许比盲目追涨杀跌更为稳妥。 毕竟，金价的下一个方向，仍取决于宏观数据给出的答案。 市场的反应并非仅限于黄金。白银价格同样承压，现货银跌幅达到1.3%，收于每盎司37.97美元。而铂 金和钯金则表现相对坚挺，分别上涨1.1%和2%。这种分化反映出不同贵金属在工业用途与投资避险功 能上的权重差异：铂金和钯金更多与汽车制造和工业需求挂钩，对美元波动的敏感度低于黄金和白银。 短期来看，黄金市场的多空博弈正在进入一个微妙阶段。一方面，宏观经济仍面临放缓压力，地缘局势 也未完全平息，这为黄金提供了中长期支撑。另一方面，美国的经济数据却一次次展示出韧性，尤其是 在通胀与就业指标上， ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the US dollar is on a long-term weakening trend due to closed speculative short positions and deteriorating fiscal prospects amid an economic slowdown [1][4] - The dollar index has faced another failed rebound, attempting to recover from the low in early July but facing resistance, indicating a potential continuation of this pattern [1][4] - Speculative short positions in dollar futures were extremely crowded, making a rebound a matter of time rather than certainty, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing extreme short positions [1][4] Group 2 - Positions in the dollar against developed market currencies have returned to a net long status, while short positions against emerging market currencies remain and are expanding [3][1] - Macro hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have also seemingly closed their dollar shorts, with their sensitivity to dollar performance returning to neutral levels after previously hitting a three-year low [4][1] - The US fiscal balance is under increasing pressure, with an annual deficit of approximately $2 trillion, which could double to double-digit percentages if the economy enters a recession [5][4] Group 3 - The risk of an economic recession in the US is rising, with tax revenue expected to decline, leading to greater pressure on government budgets [4][5] - Market movements are not linear, especially in the foreign exchange market, but the prevailing downward trend for the dollar suggests that any upward movements may become increasingly short-lived [7][1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential limited influence of Milan on the US dollar due to his late participation in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings [1] Group 1 - Aroop Chatterjee from Wells Fargo indicates that Milan may not start attending FOMC meetings until December, which could restrict his impact on the US dollar [1] - Milan is expected to only attend two FOMC meetings before the end of his term, given the current Senate recess until September [1] - Even with expedited Senate action, attending the December FOMC meeting appears more feasible than attending in September or October [1]

Currency Market Analysis - ING expects the dollar to face downward pressure this week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a leading technology company, highlighting a significant increase in revenue and net income compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of $50 billion for the last quarter, representing a 20% increase year-over-year [1] - Net income reached $10 billion, which is a 25% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) rose to $5, up from $4 in the previous year, indicating strong profitability [1] Market Position - The company has strengthened its market position, capturing an additional 5% market share in the technology sector [1] - The growth is attributed to increased demand for its cloud services and innovative product offerings [1] Future Outlook - Analysts project continued growth, with expected revenue of $60 billion for the next quarter, driven by seasonal demand and new product launches [1] - The company plans to invest $2 billion in research and development to enhance its product lineup and maintain competitive advantage [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：美元不是美联储讨论的主要焦点。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：（被问及美元问题时）只有财政部才会就美元发表看法。 ...

鲍威尔：美元并非美联储的重要议题。 ...