Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have intensified, with mixed signals from officials about the timing and necessity of potential rate cuts in July, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed officials Bowman and Waller have indicated that a rate cut could be considered as early as July, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the need to support economic growth [2][3]. - Waller believes that the labor market's weakness may justify a July rate cut, while Bowman supports a cut if inflation continues to decline [2][3]. - Other officials, such as Barr and Williams, express caution, highlighting the potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation and suggesting that the Fed should wait for further economic developments before acting [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic data shows that inflation has remained moderate, but there are concerns that core prices may rebound in the second half of the year, alongside a slight increase in unemployment rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that significant triggers for a rate cut could include rapid deterioration in consumer and employment data, as well as risks in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The economic growth forecast for the U.S. is projected to slow to around 1% this year, with inflation expected to rise to 3% [11][12]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - Market expectations for a July rate cut are polarized, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a forecast for two cuts this year, while Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast to one cut due to tariff risks [14]. - The potential impact of tariffs on GDP growth and inflation is significant, with estimates suggesting a 2.2% decline in GDP growth by 2025 if tariffs are fully implemented [14]. - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed may complicate the decision-making process, forcing the Fed into a challenging position regarding rate cuts and inflation management [6][14].

美联储威廉姆斯：今年美国经济可能增长约1%。不确定性、关税措施以及移民减少将放缓经济增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that overall inflation is nearing 2%, but core inflation remains elevated, suggesting ongoing economic challenges [1] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by approximately 1% this year, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [1] - Factors such as uncertainty, tariff measures, and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth [1] Monetary Policy - A moderately tight monetary policy is in place, allowing for the assessment of new data as it becomes available [1] - Inflation rates are anticipated to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years [1]

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 而美国劳工统计局的就业数据也并不弱，2025年5月美国的失业率为4.2%，虽然和今年1月的4.0%略有 增长，但环比变化不大。和2020年4月14.8%的失业率峰值相比，美国的劳动就业数据自2021年8月以 来，始终没有突破5%的阈值。目前的月度就业数据基本维持在2017年2月至2020年2月之间的水平，而 同期美国的联邦基金利率水平分别位于0.5%~0.75%和1.5%~1.75%区间。所以在核心通胀水平已接近目 标区间，而就业数据并不弱的支撑下，美联储保持4.25%~4.5%利率水平不变的决议似乎站不住脚。 为了更清晰观察这一反常行为背后的逻辑，还需要从美国经济增长数据中去寻找答案。同样是美国经济 分析局（BEA）的统计（公布季度数据），2025年一季度，美国国内生产总值的增速为-0.2%，而去年 四季度该数据还为2.4%。从2016年一季度至今，美国经济分析局共录得四次经济负增长，分别是2020 年一季度的-5.5%和当年二季度的-28.1%（但随即三季度变为正增长35.2%）、2022年一季度的-1.0%以 及本次2025年一季度-0.2%。 从成因 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

ca 洪源的宏观策略 洪源:真金白银 06-03 如题。 昨日, 乌克兰派遣无人机深入俄罗斯境内， 突袭了俄罗斯 停靠战略轰炸机群的机场，造成了40多架战机被摧毁, 多架受损。据闻，部分战机是可以携带核武器的轰炸机。 俄罗斯随即反应，在新闻媒体会上声称"核武器已经准备 在新闻媒体会上声称"核武器已经准备就 绪，打击目标不限于乌克兰"，并对于基辅发动了持续时间 最长的一次轰炸袭击。 看新闻标题, 人们难免感觉到整个世界处于核战的边缘, 而乌克兰的这次突袭颇有些"珍珠港"对味道。毕竟，俄罗 斯受损的不仅仅是大量的战机和远程核打击的能力, 而更 多的是这个战斗民族的情节。连乌克兰都打不过,很难称 得上是一个军事强国。最后， 双方谈判继续, 并达成了进 步交换战俘的协定，但停火协议还是遥遥无期。 港股在周末乌克兰突袭的消息后开盘大跌,但是盘中深V反 弹收回四百多点的跌势,令在长假中的A股松了口气。昨夜 美股也走出了类似的深 V 行情，午盘后在英伟达等半导体 公司的带动下展开反弹。 这个数据在这个周期里明显受到了特朗普关税的影 然而, 响。因此,美国今年一二季度的经济数据,在分析的时候 需要考虑关税这个特殊的情况。比如 ...

Economic Growth - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US GDP growth, with certain industries showing insufficient growth momentum [3] - Manufacturing PMI data has been hovering near the expansion threshold, indicating obstacles in manufacturing growth [3] - Although the service sector remains relatively stable, it faces challenges due to fluctuations in consumer spending willingness [3] - The job market shows signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of new jobs despite a relatively low unemployment rate [3] Inflation Concerns - Current inflation levels, while lower than previous peaks, remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Core inflation persists at elevated levels due to factors such as energy price volatility and lingering supply chain issues [3] - The potential for rising inflation poses a significant threat to long-term economic stability, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [3] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions show significant divergence, with a 97.8% probability of maintaining current rates in the short term [4] - By July, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 22%, indicating growing market concerns about the US economic outlook [4] - Recent declines in US Treasury yields reflect market expectations of potential rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [4] Monetary Policy Implications - Rate cuts could lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating investment and consumption [5] - Lower interest rates may enhance the competitiveness of the US economy amid global economic slowdowns and trade tensions [5] - Political factors may influence the Fed's decisions, especially in election years, as there may be pressure to lower rates to stimulate the economy [5] Conclusion - The Fed's interest rate decision is currently in a delicate balance, with considerations for inflation control and economic stimulation [5] - Future decisions will depend on dynamic economic data, inflation trends, and evolving market expectations, impacting both the US economy and global financial markets [5]

今晚，美国一系列重磅数据出炉。 值得注意的是，渣打银行突然对美元发出危险警告。渣打银行在最新发布的报告中表示，如果美国总统特朗普 的政策增加美国债务负担但未能提振美国经济，那么明年美元"重大"下跌的风险将会增加。 重磅数据出炉 北京时间5月29日，美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）公布的数据显示，美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率修正值 为下降0.2%，预期为下降0.3%。美国第一季度最终销售年化季率修正值-2.9%，前值-2.5%。美国第一季度企业 获利年化季率初值 -3.6%，前值5.9%。 美国一季度核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季环比修正值为3.4%，略低于预期的3.5%，初值为3.5%；美 国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年率修正值 2.8%，前值2.8%。 根据BEA上月的初步估算，剔除通胀影响后的一季度GDP同比录得-0.3%，与去年第四季度2.4%的增长形成鲜 明对比。 BEA通常会公布三轮季度GDP增长数据，第二轮修正数据已于今晚发布。这一轮修正基于更多数据和更新后的 估算结果。 美国商务部经济分析局公布的数据显示，美国第一季度经济折合年率萎缩0.2%，预估为下降0.3%，这一数据 相较于此前公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the US dollar may remain limited due to ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth and budget deficits in the US [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The rebound in the US consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board in May has contributed to a stronger dollar [1] - More positive data is needed to rebuild market confidence in US economic growth [1] Group 2: Risks and Outlook - Concerns regarding the budget deficit are expected to persist in the short term [1] - The dollar continues to face "downside risks" in the near term [1] - The unexpected rise in consumer confidence has somewhat mitigated these risks, but caution remains regarding the pursuit of a dollar index breakthrough above the 100 mark [1]

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the contrasting impacts of tax reform and tariffs on the U.S. economy, with tax cuts expected to stimulate growth while tariffs may hinder consumer purchasing power and economic expansion [1][4][5] - Economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs in boosting domestic manufacturing and employment, with many predicting that the negative impact of tariffs will outweigh the positive effects of tax reforms [1][6] - The average tariff rate has increased significantly from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to approximately 15%, which is estimated to act as a tax increase equivalent to 1% to 1.5% of GDP [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary projected a growth rate close to 3% within a year, while independent analyses suggest a much lower impact from tax cuts on GDP growth [5][6] - Consumer confidence has dropped to the second-lowest level on record, and inflation expectations have reached multi-decade highs, indicating potential economic strain [6] - The tax savings from reforms may be offset by rising prices due to tariffs, particularly affecting low-income households [7]