每经AI快讯，12月23日消息，美国第三季度经济折合年率增长4.3%，预估为3.3%。 ...

The kitchen sink was thrown at the economy in 2025 — punishing tariffs, higher inflation, rising unemployment — but the U.S. might still be growing at an above-average speed in a sign of surprising pluck. ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储威廉姆斯：美国经济已为 2026 年的增长做好充分准备。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its implications for the U.S. economy and markets, highlighting political pressures and expected economic growth driven by upcoming legislation [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Stephen Miran, a recent appointee by President Trump to the FOMC, supports a 50 basis points rate cut, while Trump advocates for a cut greater than 25 basis points [1]. - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve is expected to persist in the short term, especially with Powell's anticipated retirement on May 15, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite indications from the Federal Reserve that rate cuts may be fewer than market expectations over the next year, the economy is projected to remain robust [1]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" legislation is expected to stimulate U.S. economic growth, potentially exceeding initial forecasts [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend until 2026, with a more diverse range of leading sectors [1]. - Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improvements in nominal economic growth, are seen as favorable for small and medium-sized enterprises [1]. - A weaker dollar is likely to result from the Fed's rate cuts, which could benefit emerging market stocks and local currency bonds [1].

【花旗预测2026年美元兑欧元汇率升至1欧元兑1.10美元】12月5日消息，花旗预测，到2026年，美元兑 欧元汇率将升至1欧元兑1.10美元。原因是预期美元会受益于美国重新加速增长，且美联储降息力度小 于市场预期。花旗预计，欧元兑美元在2026年第三季度最低将跌至1.10，较当前1.1650水平下跌近6%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

来源：滚动播报 花旗预测，美元兑欧元汇率将在2026年升至1欧元兑1.10美元，因预期美元将受益于美国经济重新加速 增长，且美联储的降息力度将小于市场预期。花旗预计欧元兑美元将在2026年第三季度最低跌至1.10， 较当前1.1650水平下跌近6%。Daniel Tobon领导的外汇策略师团队在报告中写道，"我们对2026年美元持 建设性预期，主要源于对美国经济增长复苏的预期，尤其在11月中期选举临近之际。经济增长并非由单 一主导因素驱动，而是多项因素共同作用可能带来更积极前景，这将使市场难以进一步对美联储降息进 行鸽派定价"。 ...

高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，市场普遍预期美联储将于今年十二月实施降息，但后续政策路径，尤其是二零二六年的前景，则显得迷雾重重。报告认为， 尽管十二月降息二十五个基点的可能性极高，然而明年美国经济可能出现的增长加速与通胀降温，或将促使美联储调整其宽松节奏。 通胀走势是支持这一预测的重要支柱。报告分析指出，美国核心通胀压力已有所缓解，潜在通胀率已降至约百分之二。随着此前加征关税带来的价格传导效 应在明年中期逐渐消退，实际通胀率有望进一步回落。这一判断的前提是贸易政策环境保持相对稳定且金融市场不出现剧烈波动。 与相对乐观的增长和通胀展望形成对比的，是报告对美国劳动力市场更深层的担忧。尽管官方数据表现尚可，但高盛自身构建的指标显示就业增长动力可能 弱于表象。尤其值得关注的是，美国大学毕业生的就业市场出现显著降温，年轻毕业生的失业率从近期低点攀升了约百分之七十。报告提示，这种结构性疲 软可能反映了技术变革带来的效率提升等因素的影响，若持续恶化，可能对消费者支出构成压力，并增加未来货币政策进一步宽松的理由。 综合来看，高盛的报告描绘了一幅短期政策明确、中长期路径充满不确定性的图景。十二月的降息似乎已是共识下的最后一环，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - Société Générale indicates that the medium-term economic growth outlook for the U.S. remains unaffected, predicting a return of the dollar by 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The bank expects a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in Q4 2025, which may pressure the dollar in the coming weeks and early 2026 [1] - By Q1 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate is projected to reach 1.20, but is expected to decline to 1.14 by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Currency Performance - The Canadian dollar is anticipated to be the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies next year due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - In 2026, many emerging market currencies are expected to experience a deterioration in spot exchange rate performance amid a strengthening dollar [1]

12月4日，美东时间周三，高盛研究公司首席经济学家哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在其最新的"全球观点"报 告中写到，他们认为虽然美联储在今年12月很可能会降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则较为难以预测。 他们目前的假设是，美联储将在明年上半年放缓宽松步伐，同时美国的经济增长将重新加速且通胀将降 温。 哈祖斯提到，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示出，美国劳动力市场明显出现了降温迹象，这可能 意味着在美联储12降息25基点已经基本板上钉钉。 他补充道，下一次非农就业报告定于12月16日发布，下一次消费者价格通胀（CPI）数据将于12月18日 公布，而美联储宣布利率决议的时间是12月10日——这意味着12月降息的可能性基本不大会受到更多数 据因素的影响。 2026 年美联储预计会降息几次？ 相比于12月，美联储明年的降息前景就显得迷雾重重。高盛研究公司预测，由于关税对经济的影响减 轻、减税以及金融环境宽松等因素，美国经济在2026年将有望加速增长，增速或达到2%至2.5%。 "我们的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业增长，并将失业率稳定在略高于今年9月4.4%这一水平的 适度高位。" 哈祖斯预计，美联储将在明年1 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Bessent predicts a 4% economic growth for the US by 2026, which has garnered significant market attention [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Predictions - Bessent emphasizes that 2026 will see substantial tax refunds and a combination of "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [1] - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8% [1] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 is projected at 1.7% due to enhanced tariff effects, contrasting sharply with Bessent's 4% prediction [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower rates only twice before then [1] - The Federal Reserve is tasked with balancing inflation pressures from tariffs against a weakening labor market, which will influence future economic trends [1] - The new Federal Reserve Chair, to be appointed by Bessent, will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy that aligns with fiscal policy to achieve growth expectations [2] Group 3: Technological Impact on Growth - Investment related to artificial intelligence is driving industrial production growth in the US and many Asian economies, injecting new momentum into economic development [2]