当前趋势主要以短期震荡偏弱：金价在上周五大跌后，本周一处于调整状态。上方受到美联储鹰派言论导致的降息预期降温压制，下方则受到美元走软以及 地缘政治等因素带来的避险需求支撑。 关键阻力位 4110美元、4140美元 关键支撑位 4060美元、4030美元 震荡思路，高抛低吸为主。 对于短线交易，当前市场更偏向于在区间内进行高抛低吸的震荡操作。 如果金价反弹至4110美元至4140美元的阻力区域并出现上涨乏力迹象（比如出现特定的看跌K线形态），可以考虑轻仓试空。止损设置：参考放在4140美元 上方。目标位：可看向4060-4045-4030美元附近。 回调做多机会 如果金价回调至4030美元至4060美元的支撑区域并出现企稳信号（比如小级别图表的看涨K线组合），可以考虑轻仓试多。止损设置：参考放在4030美元下 方。目标位：可看向4100-4110-4030美元上方 今日黄金市场主要呈现震荡格局，短期走势偏弱但中长期上涨基础依然存在。 未来一周，以下事件和数据可能会引起金价较大波动，请密切关注： 反弹做空机会 关键经济数据发布： 9月非农就业报告：将于本周四（11月20日） 公布。这是本周的重中之重，数据结果将显 ...

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, leading to a backlog of data that will be released in the coming weeks, providing critical information for the market and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a timeline for the release of various economic data starting next week [1] - Key reports include the September non-farm payrolls on November 20, September real wage data on November 21, and the revised Q3 GDP on November 26 [1] - Additional reports will cover October personal income, spending, PCE price index, and the October international trade report on December 4, with the final Q3 GDP value set for December 19 [1] Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have complete data on employment and inflation before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Fed's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history will lead to a release of accumulated economic data, providing critical insights for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Labor Department have announced a detailed schedule for the release of economic data starting next week [1] - Key dates include: - November 20: Release of the September non-farm payroll report [1] - November 21: Release of September real wage data [1] - November 26: Release of the revised Q3 GDP, along with October personal income, spending, and PCE price index [1] - December 4: Release of the October international trade report [1] - December 19: Release of the final Q3 GDP [1] Federal Reserve's Data Considerations - According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and preliminary Q3 GDP before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, allowing the release of key economic data to resume [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the September non-farm payroll report on November 20, which was delayed due to the shutdown [1] - Additional reports, including the "real earnings" report, will be released on November 21, while some labor data remains uncertain [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - The third quarter GDP revision will be published on November 26 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - Personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October will also be released on the same day [1] - The October international trade report is scheduled for December 4 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - The final value of the third quarter GDP will be available on December 19 at 8:30 AM EST [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is showing weakness this week, with market focus on Federal Reserve policies and upcoming economic data before the December meeting [1][2] Group 1: Economic Data and Market Impact - The end of the US government shutdown is expected to bring back market volatility, with the ICE dollar index showing heightened sensitivity to global interest rates [2][4] - Upcoming inflation and employment reports are crucial for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, potentially breaking recent volatility ranges [1][2] - The release of delayed economic data, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, may significantly influence market perceptions and Federal Reserve decisions [2][4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the upcoming economic data will likely be poor, leading to increased market volatility and potential further declines in the dollar [5][6] - The volatility index for US Treasury prices indicates potential for significant market movements in response to the forthcoming economic data [6] - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with some members advocating for a pause to control inflation, which could affect the dollar's performance [5][7] Group 3: Long-term Outlook on the Dollar - Long-term forecasts suggest that the dollar may continue to face weakness, attributed to concerns over rising deficits and the potential for a temporary recovery [7]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell due to demand concerns, with investors awaiting delayed U.S. economic data to assess the health of the global economy [1] Group 1: Copper Market - LME three-month copper dropped by 0.90% to $10,857 per ton, but has risen 1.31% for the week [1] - The Shanghai copper main contract for December closed down by 430 yuan or 0.49% at 86,900 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported stable economic performance in October, with ongoing transformation and growth of new economic drivers [1] - However, external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures pose challenges to stable economic operation [1] Group 3: Other Base Metals - Other base metals also experienced declines: - Shanghai aluminum for January fell by 0.68% to 21,840 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai lead for December decreased by 1.05% to 17,495 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai zinc dropped by 1.02% to 22,425 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai nickel fell by 1.48% to 117,080 yuan per ton [1] - Shanghai tin decreased by 1.77% to 291,450 yuan per ton [1] - LME three-month aluminum fell by 1.45% to $2,854.50 per ton [2] - LME zinc dropped by 1.42% to $3,011.50 per ton [2] - LME lead decreased by 0.38% to $2,070 per ton [2] - LME nickel fell by 1.01% to $14,830 per ton [2] - LME tin decreased by 1% to $36,860 per ton [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent US-China trade truce has improved market sentiment, but it is essentially a "temporary ceasefire" rather than a true agreement [3][4] - Jameel Ahmad notes that while the trade truce has led to a temporary easing of US-China relations and boosted market sentiment, uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and delayed US economic data remain potential risk factors [3][4] - The strong performance of the recent US earnings season, combined with previous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has supported overall market gains in October, but caution is advised as November approaches with uncertainties regarding further rate cuts and looming government shutdown risks [3][4] Group 2 - In the energy market discussion, Jameel Ahmad indicates that OPEC and its allies have increased global oil supply by approximately 3 million barrels per day since the end of Q1 2025, representing about 3% of total global supply [3][4] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases, reflecting a cautious strategy in light of global macroeconomic conditions, extended sanctions on Russia, and expectations for global demand [3][4] - Ahmad predicts that if market conditions change in Q1 2026, OPEC+ may adjust its policy direction, emphasizing the flexibility of OPEC's policies to respond to market dynamics [4]

美股三大指数全线低开，热门中概股逆市走强。 当地时间11月13日，美股三大指数集体低开，纳指一度跌超1%。截至发稿，道指跌0.1%，纳指跌0.89%，标普 500指数跌0.49%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48206.77 | -48.05 | -0.10% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 23198.91 | -207.55 | -0.89% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6817.31 | -33.61 | -0.49% | 中概股逆市走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数低开后拉升翻红，截至发稿涨0.45%。 中概科技龙头股中，比亚迪股份ADR、阿里巴巴均涨超2%，腾讯控股ADR涨超1%。其他热门中概股中，阿特 斯太阳能涨超6%，霸王茶姬涨超4%，虎牙、贝壳等涨超2%，理想汽车、亿鹏能源、唯品会等涨超1%。 美国政府终于"开门" 据央视新闻，签字仪式上，特朗普表示，美国政府"停摆"损失了1.5万亿美元，真正计算出损失的总体影响需 要数周甚至数月的时间。 由于美国国会民主、 ...

来源|国际财闻汇 莱维特说令人担忧的是，没有数据"让美联储的决策者们在关键时候形同盲飞"。接下来美联储官员将于12月9-10日会晤，届时将决定是否进行今年 第三次降息。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 白宫上月底曾表示，很可能无法发布10月份的通胀数据，并表示这将是"历史上首次"不发布该数据。当时，劳工统计局表示，一旦资金恢复则将重启 正常运作，并会将发布日程上的变化公之于众。 莱维特并未说明她指的是整份就业报告，还是其中的部分内容。该报告由两项调查构成：一项针对企业，用以编制主要的非农就业数据；另一项针对 家庭，用以制作失业率数据。许多企业会保留记录并电子上报数据，不过要在事后通过电话联系劳动者，让他们回忆十月某一周的就业状况，则要困 难得多。 "据我了解，有些调查实际上根本没有完成，所以我们可能永远也无法知道那个月发生了什么，"白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周二在接受 CNBC采访时表示，"在数据机构恢复运作之前，我们可能还要经历一段阴云笼罩的时期。" 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特周三表示，政府长时间的停摆可能导致不会发布10月失业率和消费者价格指数(CPI)报告。 在美国政府停摆期间 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]