Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the impact of economic indicators and Federal Reserve monetary policy on gold prices, highlighting a strong consensus on an imminent interest rate cut [1][2] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent peak at $3674.36 per ounce, reflecting a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data indicates a mixed picture, with a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, alongside a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations for a looser monetary policy [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite some signs of buyer fatigue in recent price movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market, with a potential resistance level at $3650 and support around $3610, suggesting a cautious trading approach [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to three or possibly four individuals, indicating strong support for Kevin Hassett, his chief economic advisor, to replace Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The final candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, with Hassett being the most prominently supported [1] - The candidate selection process initially considered up to 11 individuals, including various prominent figures from the financial sector [2] - Trump's previous statements indicated a fluctuating list of candidates, with Hassett and Warsh being consistently highlighted as top contenders [2] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Following a disappointing August jobs report, Hassett suggested that the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, although he speculated on the possibility of a larger cut [1] - Hassett downplayed the impact of the employment report, suggesting that revisions could lead to more favorable economic data in the future [1] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell regarding interest rate policies has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its leadership under potential new appointments [1][2] Group 3: Hassett's Background and Position - Kevin Hassett has been a long-standing member of Trump's economic team, known for his alignment with Trump's policies on trade, taxes, and inflation [3] - His tenure as an economic advisor has been marked by a supportive stance towards Trump's administration, contrasting with previous advisors who attempted to moderate Trump's more extreme positions [3] - Hassett has expressed a strong desire to become the Federal Reserve Chair, although his public statements have been somewhat ambiguous [4]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop to around 3351 before quickly rebounding above 3386, followed by a period of fluctuation, maintaining a range between 3380 and 3367 during the European session, and ultimately closing above 3393 in the US session, forming a bullish candlestick with a lower shadow [1][2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Cook, citing "improper conduct" in mortgage applications, which is seen as a direct challenge to the Fed's independence. Cook plans to sue, asserting that the President lacks the authority to dismiss her [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have surged to over 87%, driven by comments from Powell regarding rising risks in the labor market, with institutions like Morgan Stanley predicting a rate cut [2]. - Economic data showed a 2.8% decline in July durable goods orders, better than the expected 4% drop, while consumer confidence fell in August, indicating a deteriorating labor market assessment. Upcoming GDP and PCE inflation reports will be critical for the Fed's September decision [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a converging triangle pattern, with a clear trend structure. The recent price action shows alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating that the overall upward momentum remains intact [4]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3415 and 3426, while support is focused at 3323, which is the lower boundary of the triangle. The daily moving averages are in a bullish configuration, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - On a four-hour basis, gold's price action displayed a pattern of "bottoming out and recovering," with critical levels to watch being 3367 for support and 3409 for resistance. A break above 3409 could indicate a larger upward trend [5][6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,386, driven by concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and expectations of a rate cut in September [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish in the medium term, with expectations of a decline towards the $3,150 to $3,120 range, and a potential ultimate target of $3,000 to $2,950 [3] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - Current support levels for gold have been raised to the $3,350 area, with key resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 [6] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips around $3,365 and $3,350, while considering short positions near the upper resistance levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline after a strong rebound, with Brent crude down 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel and WTI down 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel [7] - Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain in an overall upward trend, supported by supply concerns and potential sanctions [7] - The technical analysis indicates a small arc bottom formation in oil prices, with a focus on the $65 resistance level and a potential bearish outlook if prices fall below $64 [8]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a predicted upward trend [1] Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia stalled, and the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiation remains uncertain. Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting led to a drop in the US dollar and a short-term jump in precious metals. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and the degree and persistence of the rate cut will be debated later. If the US economic data weakens significantly, the upside potential for gold may open up; if the economy has a relatively soft landing, be cautious at high levels. Short-term international gold and silver are in a sideways range with key resistance above. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - This week, focus on the US PCE data [1]. Summaries by Related Topics Fed's Stance - Harker believes the Fed should be cautious about rate cuts; a significant weakening of the job market may prompt a rate cut, and the Fed is still far from its inflation target [2]. - Collins thinks the risks of the dual mandate are roughly balanced. Employment growth has slowed, and there is a reason to wait [2]. - Musalem says the risks in the job market are rising but not yet apparent. If the risks intensify, the policy rate may need adjustment [2]. - Trump believes Powell should have cut rates a year ago, and it's too late to signal a rate cut now. He also threatens to fire Fed Governor Cook [2]. Russia-Ukraine Situation - Trump sets a "two - week" timeline, which may increase the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. - The US Vice President says new sanctions on Russia are "not impossible" [2]. - Zelensky is ready to take measures for peace and is cautious about Russia's signals [2].

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Core Viewpoint - The recent outlook for Bitcoin largely depends on upcoming U.S. economic data, including preliminary GDP and core personal consumption expenditures inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - If the data continues to show a slowdown in the U.S. economy and easing inflation, the Federal Reserve will have more justification to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - A liquidity-rich environment created by potential rate cuts would be favorable for Bitcoin's recovery [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Conversely, if the economic data surprises positively, investors may adopt a defensive stance, prolonging short-term corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent outlook for Bitcoin will largely depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, including preliminary GDP figures and core personal consumption expenditure inflation data [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - If the economic data continues to show a slowdown in the U.S. economy and easing inflation, the Federal Reserve will have more justification to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Such a scenario would create a liquidity-rich environment favorable for Bitcoin's recovery [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Conversely, if the data unexpectedly shows strong performance, investors may adopt a defensive stance, prolonging short-term corrections [1] - Bitcoin recently increased by 0.2%, reaching a price of $112,981 [1]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with notable variations among different brands. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram to 1006 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold saw a significant drop of 11 yuan per gram to 969 yuan per gram, marking it as the lowest-priced store [1][3]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices among various stores has widened to 37 yuan per gram [1]. - The latest prices for major brands are as follows: Lao Miao Gold at 1002 yuan per gram, Liufuk Gold at 1006 yuan per gram, and Zhou Dafu Gold at 1006 yuan per gram, all showing no change [1][3]. Group 2: Platinum Market - Platinum prices are on the rise, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 5 yuan per gram to 548 yuan per gram [4]. - The gold recovery price has slightly decreased by 1 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [4]. Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price opened lower, reaching a low of 3325.08 USD per ounce before closing at 3338.33 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.29% [6]. - The drop in gold prices is attributed to the release of the U.S. August PMI data, which reached an 8-month high, dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and leading to a rise in the dollar index [6]. - Despite the decline, the increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. suggests a slowdown in the labor market, which may limit further declines in gold prices [6]. - Analysts suggest that if Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicates potential rate cuts in the coming months, it could lead to downward pressure on the dollar and support for gold prices [6].

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's policy shows increasing division among officials, with some advocating for only one rate cut this year while others see no urgent need for cuts due to inflation concerns [2][3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut have decreased from 92% to 74%, with the anticipated total rate cut by year-end reduced from 54 basis points to 49 basis points, primarily due to recent inflation data and cautious statements from officials [3] - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with rising unemployment claims and weak manufacturing activity suggesting labor market risks, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support gold prices, as there are no signs of a quick resolution [7] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Iran, affecting multiple entities and vessels, which adds to the geopolitical uncertainty [8] - The limited scope of tariff reductions in the U.S.-EU trade agreement may drive more funds into gold due to global uncertainties [9] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following a peak of 3500 in April, with a clear triangular convergence pattern forming, indicating potential volatility ahead [11] - Key support and resistance levels for gold are identified, with support at approximately 3315 and resistance at around 3384 [11] - In the four-hour timeframe, the market remains in a downward trend until the previous high of 3409 is breached, with critical levels to watch being 3311 for support and 3352 for resistance [13]