金十数据6月6日讯，加拿大皇家银行BlueBay资产管理公司的固定收益类首席投资官马克•道丁说，两年 期和30年期美债收益率之差将进一步扩大，使收益率曲线变陡。道丁说，对美国赤字的担忧将加剧这些 变动。他说，美国参议院目前正在就特朗普的预算法案进行谈判，似乎没有什么证据表明美国的财政赤 字会在短期内下降。 美国2-30年期国债收益率曲线可能进一步趋陡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and Elon Musk highlights significant issues regarding U.S. government debt and fiscal responsibility, with Musk criticizing Trump's tax and spending policies while Trump defends his administration's actions [1][2][3] Group 1: Conflict Background - The conflict escalated after the House of Representatives passed a large tax and spending bill proposed by the Trump administration, which Musk criticized for not aligning with fiscal responsibility [1] - Musk's resignation from his government position coincided with the criticism of the administration's spending plans, as he failed to meet his goal of reducing government spending by $1 trillion, achieving only a reduction of less than $200 billion [1] Group 2: Musk's Criticism - Musk publicly opposed Trump's tax bill, urging citizens to contact their legislators to "kill" the proposal, stating that "bankrupting America is wrong" [2] - He also criticized Trump's tariff policies, predicting they would lead to an economic recession in the latter half of the year [2] Group 3: Trump's Defense - Trump responded to Musk's criticisms by stating that Musk was "not in a good place" and that he had removed him from the government efficiency role, claiming that ending Musk's government subsidies would save hundreds of billions [2] - Trump emphasized that the tax bill was passed quickly without proper scrutiny, which Musk corroborated by stating he never saw the bill [2] Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 25% of government revenue, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][3] - The "big and beautiful" tax bill is projected to increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, contradicting the principles of fiscal restraint that both Musk and Trump previously advocated [3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating due to rising debt and interest payments, warning of significant future increases in the federal deficit [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has reduced its risk exposure since the announcement of significant tariffs by President Trump in April, preparing for ongoing uncertainties in the market [1] Group 1: Risk Management - The company has moderately lowered its risk positions since April 2, indicating a prudent approach to managing potential market volatility [1] - Goldman Sachs is committed to taking on substantial risks for its clients while also aiming to reduce its own risk where possible [1] - The firm is preparing for continued uncertainty in the coming months by maintaining a larger liquidity buffer [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - John Waldron, widely seen as a successor to current CEO David Solomon, described the tariff measures as "highly destructive" [1] - Companies are beginning to make business decisions based on the assumption that tariffs may rise to 10% to 15%, indicating a shift towards a more cautious capital expenditure and M&A environment [1] - Despite these challenges, the U.S. economy remains strong, supported by a solid job market and consumer spending, with a low likelihood of recession [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the unsustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit, with voices from the bond market gaining attention [1] - The primary concern in the current market is the direction of interest rates, particularly the path of long-term rates, which are rising significantly in the U.S., Japan, and many other countries [1] - The increase in long-term yields may potentially suppress economic growth [1]

Group 1 - Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito warns that the rising U.S. fiscal deficit and government debt levels represent a "ticking time bomb" [1] - Esposito emphasizes the importance of how the Trump administration addresses the fiscal situation, stating that it will be "crucial" [1] - Concerns about the budget deficit have intensified due to a tax bill being reviewed by Congress, which is estimated to increase the U.S. budget deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade [2] Group 2 - Citadel Securities has benefited from market volatility, reporting record profits and trading revenues in the first quarter of this year [2] - The firm is expanding its presence in various asset classes and regions, including entering the investment-grade corporate bond market in 2023 [2] - Esposito indicates that the company is looking to expand its cryptocurrency trading business under new regulatory frameworks, viewing cryptocurrency as a serious asset class for institutional and professional investors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if expectations for the appreciation of the Renminbi increase, investors may prefer Chinese government bonds, with trade negotiation outcomes being a key influencing factor [1][12] - The U.S. fiscal situation remains concerning, with a projected fiscal deficit to GDP ratio of 6.28% in 2024, and estimates suggesting it could rise to 7% by 2026 [4][5] - Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating aligns with previous actions by other agencies, indicating market unease regarding rising government debt levels [5][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in implementing preemptive rate cuts due to rising inflation expectations, with a forecasted inflation rate of 3.5% in Q4, significantly above the current 2.4% [7][8] - Tariff policies are expected to have dual effects, potentially raising prices and suppressing economic growth, with inflation likely to manifest before economic slowdown [8][9] - The dollar is expected to weaken against major currencies, with predictions of the euro reaching 1.20 against the dollar by year-end, as investors seek diversification away from U.S. assets [10][11] Group 3 - The Chinese bond market is gradually attracting more foreign investors, and while current yields are low, an increase in Renminbi appreciation expectations could enhance the appeal of Chinese government bonds [12]

智通财经APP注意到，美债涨势趋稳，投资者在周五非农就业报告公布前保持谨慎，并小幅下调对美联 储降息的押注。 周四两年期美债收益率一度上涨2个基点至3.89%，缓解了前一日因美国经济数据逊于预期引发的暴 跌。交易员仍充分定价美联储今年将降息两次(每次25个基点)，但减少了对第三次降息的押注。 投资者正等待美国非农就业数据以研判货币政策前景。 本周早些时候的数据显示，美国私营部门就业增速已放缓至两年来最低水平，但部分分析师认为这不足 以支撑美债持续上涨。 杰富瑞国际首席欧洲策略师莫希特·库马尔表示，"美国的财政问题将阻碍任何实质性反弹。" 尽管经济数据走弱，他仍预计10年期收益率将在4.25%至4.75%区间波动，"若10年期收益率向4.25%回 落，我们将借此机会重建空头头寸。" 在日本30年期国债拍卖结果好于许多投资者担忧后，美国长期国债小幅上涨。不过，由于投资者仍担忧 美国不断扩大的财政赤字，美债涨幅落后于欧洲债券。 周四美国30年期国债收益率下降2个基点至4.86%，但自5月初以来仍累计上涨逾20个基点。此前穆迪评 级剥夺了美国最后一个AAA级信用评级，且美国众议院通过了一项延续特朗普减税政策的数万亿美 ...

新华财经上海6月4日电（葛佳明）近期，大类资产市场走势出现了一系列与传统定价机制相悖的状况。 黄金与美债传统收益率的负相关关系失效，美债收益率持续走强，美元则走弱，而美股却在美债收益率 不断上升的状况下持续上行。 美国"股债汇"定价模式转变背后，可以窥见美国的短期通胀问题与长期债务风险，投资者对于美国信用 的担忧，进而令美元承压，而对美股来说，投资者可能更关注市场中的流动性状况，定价的"锚点"正脱 离传统利率水平。 美元、美债走势大幅背离 从历史上看，美债收益率与美元走势通常呈现出同向波动的情况。当美国经济运行良好时，企业盈利攀 升，推动股市等风险资产吸引力上升，使得美债需求下降，美债收益率攀升。在上述情况下，美元也会 同步受益于美国经济的强劲状况，国际资本进一步涌入，增加美元的需求。 但自今年4月以来，因美国关税政策反复，美国10年期国债收益率已从4.16%升至4.42%，而美元指数则 下跌超5%。美元汇率与美债收益率之间的关联性降至近三年最低水平。 一方面，2025财年（2024年10月到2025年4月）以来，美国财政赤字规模整体超预期，而关税以及美国 总统特朗普的减税法案则会对未来的赤字路径产生影响，预 ...

汽油涨价65元/吨 国家发改委在公告中指出，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，自2025年 6月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨分别上涨65元和60元。 据金联创测算，截至6月3日第十个工作日，参考原油品种均价为63.16美元/桶，变化率为2.11%。具体 来看，89号汽油上调0.05元/升，92号汽油0.05元/升，95号汽油0.06元/升，0号柴油0.05元/升。 本轮是2025年第十一次调价，也迎来了2025年的第四次上调。本次调价过后，国内汽、柴油价格每吨较 去年底分别下跌655元/吨和630元/吨，零售油价较年初价格跌幅较大，油价仍处于较低水平，下一次调 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 何一华 李未来 北京报道 6月3日下午，国家发改委发布了新一轮油价调整公告，自2025年6月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格每吨 分别上涨65元和60元。 金联创成品油分析师马建彩告诉《华夏时报》记者，本轮计价周期内国际市场消息面利好利空因素博 弈，原油价格走势窄幅回落后再度上涨。受国际油价区间波动影响，本轮变化率正向开端后持续小幅收 窄运行，零售价调价最终兑现小幅 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of confidence, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, nearing the highest level since the 2007 financial crisis [1] - Concerns about the long-term fiscal situation of the U.S. are deepening, as the total federal debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 124%, significantly above international warning levels [1] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in the fiscal year 2024, becoming the third-largest government expenditure, surpassing defense spending [1] Group 2 - Major Wall Street investment firms are shifting to risk-averse strategies, systematically avoiding 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds and reallocating funds to mid-term bonds (5 to 10 years) [3] - These mid-term bonds offer relatively attractive returns while effectively reducing interest rate risk exposure, as firms like Pacific Investment Management Company adopt similar defensive strategies [3] - This collective adjustment in investment portfolios has yielded positive risk control outcomes this year, with investors seeking higher risk compensation for long-term lending to the U.S. government in the current fiscal environment [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is exhibiting a rare steepening trend, with the 30-year yield rising significantly while short-term yields (2-year, 5-year) are declining [4] - The difference between the 30-year and 5-year yields has surpassed 100 basis points for the first time since 2021, indicating substantial selling pressure on long-term bonds [4] - Recent bond auctions from major economies, including the U.S. and Japan, have faced weak demand, raising concerns about the future demand for long-term government bonds [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell marks Trump's first face-to-face discussion with Powell since returning to the White House, where Trump urged for interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. Treasury market showed slight improvement following Trump's comments, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields decreasing by 15 and 16 basis points respectively from their recent highs [1] - Concerns about U.S. debt remain, with the projected fiscal deficit for 2024 reaching $1,832.38 billion, the highest in three years, and nearly double the 2019 deficit [2] Group 2 - The "Beautiful America Act," a significant fiscal spending bill, has raised market concerns regarding U.S. fiscal issues, particularly after the departure of Elon Musk from the government efficiency department [3] - The Act is expected to increase the fiscal deficit by $3.06 trillion over the next decade while also raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion [3] - The auction of long-term U.S. Treasuries remains weak, with the recent 20-year Treasury auction showing lower demand compared to historical averages [4] Group 3 - Treasury Secretary Yellen's recent measures to relax bank regulations may conflict with current investor preferences for long-term Treasuries, as banks are encouraged to increase their holdings [5] - The potential reduction of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) could enhance banks' credit capacity and lower long-term financing costs, but investor sentiment may still favor short-duration Treasuries due to recent market conditions [6]