Core Viewpoint - The majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are expected to lower interest rates two more times this year, indicating a dominant dovish stance within the committee [1] Group 1 - Simon Dangoor, the head of fixed income macro strategy at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, highlights the current expectation of further rate cuts by the FOMC [1] - The current monetary policy trajectory suggests that significant increases in inflation or the job market are necessary for the Federal Reserve to shift away from its accommodative stance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock market momentum is expected to continue in the short term, driven by a significant rebound in global economic growth expectations and bets on substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Investor sentiment has reached its most optimistic level since February 2025, with cash positions among fund managers remaining low at 3.9% for the third consecutive month [1]. - The net increase in stock allocations has reached a seven-month high, indicating a shift in market risk appetite [4][8]. - Concerns over a "trade war-induced global recession" have significantly diminished, dropping from 29% in August to 12% [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Expectations - There has been a notable improvement in global economic growth expectations, with only a net 16% of fund managers anticipating economic weakness, down from a net 41% in August [5]. - 67% of respondents expect a "soft landing," while only 10% foresee a "hard landing," a significant increase from 5% in August [5]. - 77% of fund managers anticipate a "stagflation" environment, characterized by below-trend growth and above-trend inflation [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Nearly half (47%) of fund managers expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times or more within the next 12 months, indicating strong expectations for monetary easing [10]. - The anticipation of a new round of easing by the Federal Reserve is a key pillar supporting current market optimism [10]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Risks - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, concerns about a second wave of inflation have emerged as the largest tail risk, identified by 26% of respondents [14]. - Worries about the declining independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dollar depreciation are also significant, with 24% of respondents expressing these concerns [17]. Group 5: Survey Dynamics - The survey conducted from September 5 to 11 included 165 fund managers managing a total of $426 billion in assets [18]. - 39% of respondents prefer companies to increase capital expenditures, the highest since December of the previous year, while only 27% want companies to focus on improving balance sheets, the lowest since February 2022 [22].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting a target price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural increases in central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have risen 6% since August 26, breaking out of a trading range of $3,200 to $3,450, currently trading around $3,650 [1]. - The recent price increase is attributed to increased ETF holdings, enhanced speculative positions, and expectations of a resurgence in central bank demand after the summer lull [1][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs expects central bank gold purchases to continue for three years, driven by emerging market central banks' gold allocation being significantly lower than that of developed markets [5]. - In July, global central bank and institutional demand for gold in the London over-the-counter market was 48 tons, below Goldman Sachs' forecast of an average of 80 tons per month for 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [4]. Group 3: ETF and Speculative Positions - The increase in ETF holdings contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to the recent 6% price rise, while speculative positions added about 1.2 percentage points [3]. - The report highlights that the anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and a 30% risk of recession in the next 12 months will support ETF inflows [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Central Banks - The structural shift in global central bank gold purchases has increased nearly fivefold since 2022, with emerging market central banks actively diversifying their reserve assets [5]. - For instance, China's official gold reserves account for about 8% of its total reserves, significantly lower than the approximately 70% held by the U.S. and Germany, indicating room for growth [5].

Group 1 - The cost of hedging in the foreign exchange market has risen again after a summer lull, as traders prepare for potential volatility from the upcoming U.S. employment report [1] - The implied volatility of the euro against the dollar reached its highest level since June, indicating increased market sensitivity to employment data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [1] - A significant drop in U.S. job vacancies to a 10-month low has heightened the focus on the employment report, with expectations that weak data could lead to greater market bets on a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The one-week volatility of the euro has surged to a two-month high, coinciding with the upcoming European Central Bank meeting and U.S. inflation data release [2] - An options indicator tracking the difference between implied and realized volatility has shown that contract premiums have reached their highest level since January [2]

Core Insights - Wall Street strategists indicate that certain economic indicators, such as the August CPI and employment reports, may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on monetary easing [1] - The strategist maintains a target for the S&P 500 index, projecting it to reach 6,600 points by the end of 2025 and 7,700 points by the end of next year, with a subjective probability of 55% for this baseline scenario [1] - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected in September, a "bull market" is more likely to occur, potentially pushing the index to 7,000 points by the end of 2025, with the 2026 bull market expected to be driven by earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists suggest that if August consumer price index and employment reports exceed expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee may delay easing policies, despite recent market gains from Fed Chair Powell's hints at rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The strategist maintains a target for the S&P 500 index to reach 6,600 points by the end of 2025 and 7,700 points by the end of next year, with a subjective probability of 55% for this baseline scenario [1] - If the Fed is expected to cut rates in September, a "bull market" scenario could emerge, potentially pushing the index to 7,000 points by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - By 2026, the bull market is anticipated to be driven more by earnings rather than valuation [1]

换资前言： 2025下半年你打算拿什么去面对自己曾经许下的宏愿？我们最初踏入这个市场，都怀揣着赚钱的梦想， 然而，一次次的锁仓，被套，亏损！在自己一次次的亏损里，套的越来越深，亏得越多了。我给不你了 太多保证，但有个词叫尽我所能，安稳盈利！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一(8月18日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，目前金价升至3357美元/盎司附近，日内大涨逾20美 元，亚市早盘金价一度跌至3323.50美元/盎司。但在地缘政治风险隐现之际，金价升向3360美元/盎司。 目前投资者焦点转向美乌会谈。地缘政治的不确定性继续在推动对传统价值储藏工具黄金的避险需求方 面发挥着关键作用。美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京上周末在阿拉斯加举行了备受期待的会晤，但没 有达成乌克兰和平协议。因此，所有人的目光都转向特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一的会晤。 本周（8月21-23日）的杰克逊霍尔研讨会是市场焦点，尤其是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的年度演讲。 中央银行家将倾向于鸽派言论，避免鹰派立场，这可能支撑金价。会议可能影响美元走势，进而波及黄 金市场。鉴于经济日历相对清淡，杰克逊霍尔会议被视为潜 ...

经济数据方面，美国人口调查局上周五公布7月零售销售月率增长0.5%，符合预期；6月数据从0.6%上修至0.9%。但密 歇根大学初步数据显示，美国消费者信心指数意外从7月的61.7降至58.6，预期指数也从57.7降至57.2。更值得关注的 是，一年期通胀预期从4.5%升至4.9%，五年期通胀预期从3.4%升至3.9%，叠加上周四强劲的生产者价格指数，显示价 格压力有所回升。 这进一步削弱了市场对美联储激进宽松政策的预期，尤其是对9月大幅降息的押注，从而为美元提供支撑。但缺乏实质 性买盘的情况下，多头仍需保持谨慎。交易者或避免激进布局，转而等待周三公布的美联储会议纪要。此外，美联储 主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话预计将提供降息线索和重要指引。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯领导人普京在阿拉斯加的会晤虽未取得明确突破，但投资者仍期待此次对话能增加结束俄乌 冲突的可能性。特朗普周一早间表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基若愿意"几乎可以立即"结束与俄罗斯的战争。特朗普将于 今日欧洲领导人加入扩大会议前，先行与泽连斯基举行双边会谈。这一进展缓解地缘政治风险，持续支撑当前的市场 风险偏好。 市场预计美联储9月 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the momentum of the stock market may soon come to a halt, with increased risks of a downturn in the near future [1] - The firm's "equity asymmetry framework" signals a heightened risk of stock market declines, with a greater than 10% chance of a pullback in the S&P 500 index over the next three months and over 20% in the next 12 months [1] - The recent increase in pullback risk resembles the changes seen before the market downturn in April, suggesting a potential correlation with historical market behavior [4] Group 2 - Analysts highlight a "deteriorating business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in the job market, with fewer new jobs created than expected in recent months [5] - The firm anticipates inflation to rise above 3% in the second half of the year due to the effects of tariffs, which may lead to more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [5] - With major stock indices hovering near historical highs, Wall Street remains vigilant for signs of an impending market correction, especially given the S&P 500's 10% increase year-to-date and a 29% rise since its recent low [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of increased U.S. Treasury supply and tightening liquidity on bond yields, suggesting that a rapid rise in yields could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate monetary easing [3] - It highlights the Treasury's refinancing plan for Q3 2025, which includes a projected refinancing scale of $1.007 trillion, with net issuance of long-term bonds at $470 billion and short-term bonds at $537 billion [4] - The article notes the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR, indicating shifts in market dynamics [4]