Core Viewpoint - The actions of the Trump administration towards the Federal Reserve over the past year are fundamentally about monetary policy, as stated by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who defended Fed Chair Powell amid a criminal investigation led by the Justice Department [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Kashkari emphasized the importance of explaining to voters why the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the health and vitality of the U.S. economy [1] - The Supreme Court has signaled a different view of the Federal Reserve compared to other independent agencies, potentially granting the Trump administration more power over the Fed [2] - If the Supreme Court sides with Trump, it could undermine the foundational independence of the Federal Reserve, allowing future presidents to dismiss Fed officials at will [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Funds rate currently hovers between 3.5% and 3.75%, a level that Kashkari believes positions the Fed well [2] - There is significant division among decision-makers regarding recent interest rate decisions, with some officials opposing a rate cut due to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [4] - Kashkari expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, citing a solid economic foundation despite some labor market cracks and ongoing high inflation [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Kashkari warned that inflation could remain above target levels for the next two to three years, potentially leading to prolonged high inflation [5] - A significant rise in unemployment, particularly if accompanied by easing inflation, could prompt a change in Kashkari's strategy [5] - The current economic resilience suggests that tight monetary policy may not be as impactful as perceived, as there have not been widespread layoffs despite reduced hiring [4]

来源：环球时报 日本央行并未参与的这份联合声明，签署人包括欧洲中央银行行长以及英国、加拿大、瑞典、丹麦、瑞 士、澳大利亚、韩国和巴西的央行行长。这份罕见的声明强调，维护美联储的独立性"至关重要"，并表 示"我们与美联储及其主席鲍威尔完全团结在一起"。 报道称，在记者会上被问及央行独立性的重要性时，木原稔表示，日本政府认为宏观经济政策的最终责 任在于政府。他还称，日本法律规定，货币政策属于整体经济政策的一部分，因此日本央行需要与政府 保持密切协调和充分沟通。 美国《纽约时报》11日报道称，美国联邦检察官已对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，主要涉及美联储办公大楼翻 修项目，以及鲍威尔是否向国会作虚假陈述。对此，美联储11日罕见发布视频声明，鲍威尔表示相关指 控都是"借口"，自己被调查的原因其实是美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"设定利率。美联社说，这一事态发 展重新引发外界对美联储独立性受到损害的担忧，可能削弱全球投资者对美债的信心。 据路透社14日报道，美国联邦检察官对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查后，英国、加拿大等多国央行行 长13日发表联合声明声援鲍威尔，但日本央行并未参与其中，日本政府对此拒绝置评。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔14 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel T. Kashkari在接受采访时明确声援美联储主席鲍威尔，直指特朗普政府近期 针对美联储的行动本质上是"关于货币政策"的干预。 根据《联邦储备法》，总统只有在官员存在称职问题或失职等"正当理由"时才能将其解职。Kashkari 警 告称，如果最高法院做出有利于特朗普的裁决，使总统能够随意撤换官员，将破坏美联储独立性的基本 要素。他同时注意到，最高法院过去一年的表态似乎显示其倾向于将美联储与其他独立机构区分对待。 Kashkari 在接受采访时指出，特朗普政府过去一年针对美联储的攻击"实际上是关于货币政策的"。他认 为鲍威尔对此次刑事调查性质的定性是准确的，即政府正将行政手段作为迫使央行降低借贷成本的筹 码。 尽管行政压力加剧，但 Kashkari 认为这正是一个向公众阐明美联储独立性重要性的契机。他提到，目 前市场表现相对冷静，部分原因在于跨党派议员已表态支持鲍威尔，这传递了美联储应免受政治干扰制 定利率的信号。 1月维持利率不变，谨慎对待未来降息 在货币政策层面，Kashkari 明确反对在1月的议息会议上降息。去年经过三次降息后，目前基准利率维 持在3.5%至3.75%之间 ...

美国明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长尼尔·T·卡什卡里表示，过去一年特朗普政府针对美联储采取的一 系列举措，"本质上是围绕货币政策展开"。在美国司法部主导的一项刑事调查启动后，卡什卡里公开表 态支持美联储主席鲍威尔。 面对此次调查，金融市场反应相对平稳。卡什卡里认为，这在一定程度上是因为两党议员已联名表态支 持鲍威尔，认可美联储应拥有不受政治干预、自主制定利率政策的权力，这让市场吃下了一颗"定心 丸"。 美国司法部于上周五向美联储送达了大陪审团传票，此举引发鲍威尔的强硬回应。上周日，媒体曝光这 一调查后，鲍威尔发布了一份非同寻常的视频声明。他在声明中指责特朗普政府，将美联储华盛顿总部 翻新工程的相关成本问题当作"借口"发起刑事调查，以此胁迫美联储下调基准利率。 "过去一年间，这一系列矛盾的不断加码，本质上就是围绕货币政策的博弈。"卡什卡里在接受采访时表 示，"我认为鲍威尔的这番表态精准地道出了问题的核心。" 他还指出，当前正是向民众与美国民众阐释"为何美联储的独立性对美国经济的稳健运行与活力至关重 要"的契机。 此次针对美联储的新一轮猛烈抨击，不仅遭到全球经济政策制定者的强烈反对，也引发共和党议员乃至 特朗普总统 ...

无论谁将在今年 5 月接替杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔出任美联储主席，都清楚一件事情：如果不按照美国总统唐纳 德 · 特朗普的意愿行事，就可能面临被刑事起诉的风险。 鲍威尔在 1 月 11 日发布的一份不同寻常的声明中，清晰地传达了这一信息。他在声明中誓言将继续独 立制定货币政策，尽管联邦大陪审团已经就其向国会所作证词展开调查，调查内容涉及美联储总部翻修 工程涉嫌成本超支的问题。 鲍威尔说： " 这一新的威胁并非源于我去年 6 月的证词，也无关美联储大楼的翻修工程 …… 这些都只 是借口。刑事指控的威胁，实际上是因为美联储基于对公众利益最大化的专业判断来设定利率，而非遵 从总统的个人偏好。 " " 问题的核心在于，美联储能否继续依据实证和经济状况来设定利率，抑或是货币政策将被迫屈从于政 治压力或威胁。 " 随着交易员消化即将上任的美联储主席缺乏独立公信力的预期，市场一夜之间重启 " 抛售美国 " 模式。 美元兑一篮子国际货币汇率下跌 0.32% ；五年期美国国债收益率大幅上行，显示投资者开始将美国政 府债券视为风险骤然上升的资产；作为传统避险资产的黄金期货上涨 2.21% ，刷新历史高位，突破每 盎司 4,600 美元 ...

据美联社13日报道，特朗普提议对信用卡利率设10%上限，还授意司法部调查美联储主席鲍威尔，此举 引发银行业强烈反对。美国各大银行首席执行官于13日向特朗普发出警告，称这一系列举措对美国经济 而言弊大于利。 纽约银行首席执行官罗宾·文斯表示，对美联储独立性的攻击"在我们看来，并不能实现 政府的主要目标，例如降低借贷成本、减少抵押贷款开支、降低美国人的日常生活成本。" 摩根大通首 席执行官杰米・戴蒙13日对记者称："我并非认同美联储的所有决策，但我对鲍威尔本人怀有极高的敬 意。" 摩根大通首席财务官杰弗里·巴纳姆表示，业界愿意动用一切资源，阻止特朗普政府对信用卡利率 设上限。 （环球网） 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of a subpoena to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the initiation of a criminal investigation is intended to demonstrate that "no one is above the law" and should not be interpreted as an attack on the Federal Reserve's so-called "independence" [1] Group 1 - The investigation is led by U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Janina Pirro [1] - The action taken against Powell is framed as a legal measure rather than a political one [1] - The statement emphasizes the principle of legal accountability for all individuals, including high-ranking officials [1]

特朗普此后说，他将在未来几周内宣布下任美联储主席的人选。司法部对鲍威尔的调查不会影响他的时间表。他抵达密歇根州后发表讲话时称"我们有位糟糕的 美联储主席"。 特朗普在底特律经济俱乐部发表讲话时称鲍威尔"非常死板"，并表示，在经济形势良好的情况下，美联储应该降息。他说，如果经济数据好，市场应该上涨， 而不是下跌，希望在市场表现好的时候利率下降。 在司法部对美联储发出大陪审团传票上周末被曝光后，这是特朗普首次在线下公开场合讲话时点名批评鲍威尔。此前，特朗普曾试图与调查保持距离，上周末 对媒体表示对传票"一无所知"。 同在周二，媒体获悉，负责此次调查的哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Jeanine Pirro在向美联储发出传票之前并未寻求司法部上司的批准，且无意放弃对鲍威尔的调 查。这一刑事调查引发了共和党参议员的强烈反对，威胁到特朗普对下任美联储主席人选的提名进程。 此次调查涉及美联储总部翻新项目及鲍威尔就此向国会作证的内容。三位前美联储主席和四位前美国财政部长本周一发布联合声明，谴责这一调查"在以法治为 最大优势、以法治为经济成功基础的美国没有立足之地"。参议院银行委员会的重要成员Thom Tillis承诺，在此事解决之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Powell has raised global concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with strong condemnation from former Fed chairs, Treasury secretaries, and economists against Trump's interference [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered a cornerstone of the stability of the U.S. financial system, designed with multiple "firewalls" to ensure its autonomy [12]. - Trump's actions have broken longstanding norms, as no previous president has openly threatened to dismiss Fed officials or initiate criminal investigations against them [13]. - The recent political pressure on the Fed has led to public skepticism regarding the fairness of law enforcement, particularly with the Justice Department's investigations targeting Trump's political opponents [14]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - Trump has been pressuring Powell to lower interest rates, indicating a desire to control the Fed's interest rate decisions, which directly influence the U.S. economy [11]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on January 27-28 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a 97.2% probability of no rate cut, despite Trump's pressure [15]. - Analysts warn that politicizing the Fed could undermine its policy autonomy, increase inflationary pressures, and weaken the dollar's status as a reserve currency, potentially leading to higher borrowing costs [15]. Group 3: Investigation Background - The investigation was triggered by the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters, which saw costs escalate from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to approximately $2.5 billion due to unexpected increases in labor and material costs [6]. - Trump has accused Powell of mismanagement and suggested fraudulent behavior without evidence, using the renovation project as a basis for his claims [7][9]. - The White House criticized the project for including "luxurious facilities," which Powell has denied, asserting that the criticisms are merely a pretext to exert pressure on interest rate decisions [8][9].

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the Philippines' economic outlook is weakening due to government corruption scandals and an expanding negative output gap, suggesting that the monetary easing cycle is not over, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The Carlyle Group notes that Japan's bond yields have risen to multi-year highs and the yen continues to depreciate, reflecting an economy emerging from long-term deflation, with a gradual normalization of interest rates being a positive development [1] - Mizuho Securities highlights that Japanese investors' allocation to overseas bonds is highly dependent on the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, with recent data showing a net sell-off of long-term foreign bonds [1] Group 2 - Analysts from XS.com report that the U.S. has shifted its stance on negotiations with Iran, increasing geopolitical risks, although the dollar's response to these events has been limited [2] - Westpac economists note that the U.S. Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Powell marks a new phase of government pressure on the central bank, but Powell enjoys broad support, indicating limited coercive power from Trump [2] - Columbia Threadneedle Investments emphasizes that threats against Powell regarding the Federal Reserve's budget could pose a direct threat to market sentiment, raising concerns about the politicization of the central bank [2][3] Group 3 - MFS Investment Management warns that threats to the Federal Reserve's independence represent a significant risk, highlighting the urgency for global asset diversification [3] - The market is currently returning to fundamental trading, but ongoing political pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence remains a concern, as indicated by Trump's critical remarks about Powell [3]