Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - London gold and London silver experienced a sharp correction after accelerating their upward movement in October but remained the best - performing global asset classes this year. The decline in late October was mainly a technical correction, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remained intact [90]. - The direct driver of the precious metals' rally since late August was Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the global central bank meeting, followed by the Fed's consecutive interest rate cuts in September and October and the end of QT since 2022. Sticky US inflation and falling real yields on US Treasuries were positive for precious metals [90]. - Deeper concerns stemmed from the market's worries about the Fed's future independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook challenged the Fed's independence, leading to the ineffectiveness of the Fed's forward - guidance and irreversible damage to the US dollar's credit [90]. - Since the third quarter, long - term interest rates in major global economies have risen uncontrollably, approaching a global debt crisis. US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and the US dollar index is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, leading to the return of the traditional monetary attributes of gold and silver [90]. - Gold and silver are being re - defined as anti - inflation, risk assets, and important components of global asset allocation, with a surge in investment demand [90]. - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing, in preparation for the next upward movement. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and likely to have stronger upward potential [90]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review Gold - In October, the global gold market accelerated its upward movement, then retreated after hitting a high. The Shanghai gold futures contract briefly exceeded 1,000 yuan/gram, and London gold neared $4,400/ounce. However, it later suffered a significant one - day drop, with London gold falling over 6% and breaking below $4,000 and $3,900/ounce, with a cumulative decline of over 10% [15]. - The decline was a technical correction of the previous rapid rise. The spot market remained relatively stable, with the world's largest gold ETF's holdings decreasing by less than 2% in late October [15]. Silver - In October, the global silver market also accelerated its upward movement, setting a new record high before falling back. The Shanghai silver futures contract exceeded 12,000 yuan/kg, and London silver approached $55/ounce, breaking the 2011 high. The year - to - date gain was over 80% [19]. - The rally was driven by both the gold price and a shortage of physical silver liquidity. After the liquidity shortage eased and the gold price corrected, the silver price dropped rapidly. The decline was also a technical correction, and the physical market remained relatively optimistic, with the SLV silver holdings decreasing by less than 4% in late October [19]. Part 2: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year, and the market consensus on its medium - to - long - term decline has been strengthened. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to rebalance trade, but it may lead to a reduction in the US dollar's global settlement share and weaken its reserve currency status [24]. - Global central banks have been accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold reserves. In 2024, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropped to 58%, a 30 - year low [24]. The Pennsylvania Plan and the US Debt Crisis - The Pennsylvania Plan aims to shift the demand for US Treasuries from external to domestic investors to stabilize the US debt market. However, it has not been very effective so far, and long - term US Treasury demand remains weak [25]. Digital Currencies and the US Debt - The US has established a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins. In the short term, stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasuries, but in the long term, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar's credit if the US fails to address its twin deficits [27]. Global Debt Crisis and the Flight to Precious Metals - Global debt levels are high, and major economies' sovereign credit ratings have been downgraded. Traditional credit - based monetary systems are being questioned, leading to an inflow of funds into precious metals and cryptocurrencies [29]. - US Treasuries are no longer considered a safe - haven asset, and global central banks' gold holdings have exceeded their US Treasury holdings. As the Fed enters a new interest - rate cut cycle, central banks are expected to continue reducing their US Treasury holdings and increasing their gold reserves [32]. Shifting Asset Allocation - Global investors have been reducing their exposure to US dollar - denominated assets and increasing their allocation to non - US assets, benefiting precious metals [34]. US Economic Situation and the Fed's Policy - The US economy is still expanding, but inflation remains above the Fed's target. The Fed started a new interest - rate cut cycle in September, which is positive for precious metals [37]. - US non - farm payroll data has been disappointing, and the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to employment. Powell's stance has turned dovish, and the market is concerned about the Fed's independence [40][43]. Redefinition of Gold - Gold is being re - defined as an anti - inflation and risk asset, and it has become an important part of global asset allocation. Global high - net - worth individuals have increased their gold allocation, driving up its price [47]. Part 3: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases slowed down in the first half of 2025 but accelerated in the third quarter. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [52]. Gold Investment Demand - Gold investment demand has been increasing, with global gold ETFs attracting significant inflows in the third quarter. The gold market has returned to a supply - deficit situation [55]. Silver Supply and Demand - Silver supply growth has been slow due to factors such as high production costs and long project cycles. Industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, has been driving up silver demand [58][61]. - The global silver market has been in a supply - deficit situation, and the supply - demand gap is expected to persist in the medium - to - long - term. The inventory structure shows a shortage of freely - tradable silver [64]. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. Historically, it has been negatively correlated with copper prices. Currently, the ratio is expected to decline further, indicating more upside potential for silver [65][67]. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased in the third quarter, and the world's largest gold ETF's holdings reached a new high. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased, and the SLV silver holdings declined in October [70][73]. Options Markets - Gold and silver option historical volatilities have fluctuated, and their weighted implied volatilities are currently at high levels. Strategies such as selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or selling straddles can be considered [76][79]. Technical Analysis - Gold is in a long - term bull market, and based on historical experience, it still has room for growth in both time and price. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering a bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. The technical charts of both metals show positive signals [84][87]. Part 4: Summary and Outlook - In the remaining part of the year, the precious metals market is expected to consolidate, with volatility gradually decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, silver is undervalued compared to gold and has stronger upward potential [90]. - The price ranges for the rest of the year are estimated: London gold is expected to trade between $3,800 - 3,900/ounce and $4,100 - 4,200/ounce; Shanghai gold futures between 880 - 900 yuan/gram and 940 - 960 yuan/gram; London silver between $44 - 46/ounce and $53 - 55/ounce; and Shanghai silver futures between 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg and 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/kg [89].

当地时间10月28日，美国总统特朗普的一句"无能"，像一记重拳砸向了美联储主席鲍威尔。 这不仅仅是一场寻常的口水战，更像是一封公开的"战书"。特朗普把话挑明了，等鲍威尔任期一到，就得换人。 这背后，绝非简单的个人恩怨。这实际上是将一场针对美联储独立性的系统性瓦解行动，彻底推到了聚光灯下。 事情的核心早已不是鲍威尔一个人的去留，而是美联储这个百年机构的制度灵魂，正在经受前所未有的考验。 这种稳健的风格，拒绝了特朗普期望的"大刀阔斧"，自然就成了"眼中钉"。而总统的持续施压，也让美联储内部本就存在的分歧更加尖锐。一些官员，比如 理事巴尔和堪萨斯联储主席施密德，就相当谨慎，认为通胀要回归目标还需要很长时间。 特朗普的策略已经玩得相当明白了，早已超越了单纯的口头施压。他正在通过实实在在的人事干预，试图把美联储这个独立的专业机构，改造成一个"听 话"的政策执行部门。 你看，他直接给出了鲍威尔的"下课"时间表——2026年5月。这一下就把模糊的政治威胁，变成了板上钉钉的人事议程，直接挑战了美联储主席任期保障的 传统。这可不是心血来潮，而是一贯的行事风格。 回顾一下，他曾以"欺诈"为由，直接解除了美联储理事库克的职务。他还 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but the financial market reacted tepidly, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 0.23%, 0.99%, and 1.57% respectively [1] - Following the rate cut, bond market yields rose across the board, indicating investor skepticism about the effectiveness of the rate cut in alleviating economic pressures [1] - The average FICO score for personal loans in the U.S. dropped by 2 points, marking the largest decline since 2009, while the 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.33% [2] Group 2: Economic Challenges and Employment Market - The U.S. economy faces three main issues: a weak job market, persistent inflation pressures, and uncertainty in economic growth [2] - The job market is characterized by "slow firing slow hiring," with a decline in both labor supply and demand due to tightened immigration policies [3] - The Federal Reserve's independence is under scrutiny, as its ability to make high-quality decisions is crucial for maintaining the credibility of the U.S. dollar [3] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Policies - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the Consumer Price Index showing an upward trend in inflation rates from May to September, peaking at 3.0% in September [5] - The impact of new tariff policies on prices is viewed as a one-time effect, with the Federal Reserve officials believing that inflation pressures will persist in the near term [5] - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariff policies create uncertainty, complicating the economic landscape for investors [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Investor sentiment is negatively affected by the high valuations in the stock market driven by AI investments, with concerns that a potential bubble could lead to severe consequences if it bursts [6] - The shift in focus from interest rate cuts to economic fundamentals such as employment, inflation, and government debt indicates a complex economic environment that cannot be resolved solely through monetary policy [6] - The financial market is experiencing volatility as investors begin to secure profits, leading to potential adjustments in stock prices, particularly in the AI investment sector [6]

Group 1 - China is developing artificial intelligence to benefit ordinary people, indicating a strategic focus on technology for societal improvement [2][5][25] - Geopolitical pressures and central bank reserve diversification are ongoing, with gold expected to have upside potential due to these factors [5][12][14] - The real estate sector in China is gradually correcting its imbalances, transitioning from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth [5][24] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates twice more this year and possibly another two times next year, with a terminal rate expected around 3.50% [7][10] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are more perceptual than actual, with current market data not reflecting significant worries [9][12][15] - The market has shown resilience in the face of tariff uncertainties, with companies adjusting through inventory management and supply chain strategies [16][19] Group 3 - The demand for reducing U.S.-centric asset allocation is increasing, with a gradual decline in the dollar's central role in global portfolios [22][23] - Foreign capital inflows into China are influenced by geopolitical factors, but the long-term trend remains positive, particularly in the context of the AI revolution [24][25] - Major risks for 2025 and 2026 include inflation, liquidity, and the independence of the Federal Reserve, with geopolitical risks also being a long-term concern [26][27]

当地时间10月29日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间再次下调25个基 点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五 次降息。 最新利率决议显示，两位委员投下了反对票，凸显出美联储内部的分歧。其中，被视为"外部人"的斯蒂 芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张大幅降息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）则倾 向于维持利率不变。 值得注意的是，特朗普近日表示，或将在年底前公布接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的人选。 在特朗普政府目前圈定的五位候选人中，也有两位是完全没有美联储工作经验的。一旦更多"外部人"加 入，美联储的独立性将受到更大的挑战，成为全球金融市场最大的风险敞口。回顾上世纪伯恩斯时代的 历史，美联储独立性信任的崩塌，往往是黄金牛市的序曲。 图片来源：新华社记者 胡友松摄 鲍威尔释放"鹰派"信号，黄金先涨后降至4000美元以下 本次会议是美联储史上首次在缺失联邦就业数据的情况下召开的。由于国会预算僵局，美国联邦政府自 10月1日起停摆，大量常规经济数据发布被迫中断。尽管2018年12 ...

当地时间10月29日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继 9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 最新利率决议显示，两位委员投下了反对票，凸显出美联储内部的分歧。其中，被视为"外部人"的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张大幅降息 50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Jeffrey Schmid）则倾向于维持利率不变。 值得注意的是，特朗普近日表示，或将在年底前公布接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的人选。 在特朗普政府目前圈定的五位候选人中，也有两位是完全没有美联储工作经验的。一旦更多"外部人"加入，美联储的独立性将受到更大的挑 战，成为全球金融市场最大的风险敞口。回顾上世纪伯恩斯时代的历史，美联储独立性信任的崩塌，往往是黄金牛市的序曲。 鲍威尔释放"鹰派"信号，黄金先涨后降至4000美元以下 纽约州立大学布法罗分校政治学系助理教授科林·安德森（Collin Anderson）对每经记者分析称，"我认为美联储之后将采取两种截然不同的策 略。一种是维持现状，不作任何剧烈的调整，只是小幅地调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

这个世界上的很多事情，最终都绕不过美国。 因为特朗普是目前的美国总统，所以美国的很多动向与他息息相关。 01 特朗普又打算对美联储主席鲍威尔下手了。 2025年10月27日，美国总统特朗普向记者透露，可能会在今年年底前决定下一任美联储主席的人选。路 透社报道称，特朗普当天表示："也许到年底，我们会对美联储的问题做出决定。" 美国财政部长贝森特也透露，计划在感恩节后向特朗普提交一份"优秀的候选人名单"，目前候选人已缩 小至5人。 这番言论让美联储主席鲍威尔恐怕又要紧张了。 特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔之间的关系并不好。 2025年4月17日，特朗普在社交平台"真实社交"上批评鲍威尔"又慢又错"，并表示"他早点走最好"。在 白宫接受媒体提问时，特朗普表示："如果我决定让他走，相信我，他很快就会走。我对他不满。" 2025年4月21日，特朗普再次表示鲍威尔是"太迟先生"和"一个大失败者"，并警告称如果鲍威尔不立刻 降息，美国经济将面临放缓。 如今，特朗普再次公开批评美联储主席，打算将他换掉。 可能有网友会问，为什么特朗普总是想换掉鲍威尔，却始终没有成功？ 这其中的原因比较复杂。 根据1913年美国通过的《联邦储备法》， ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The candidate pool for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3]. - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect underlying issues regarding Powell's position [3][4]. - The new chairman's selection is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, closely associated with Trump, has held senior positions in the White House and is seen as a potential choice, though his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who served on the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis, has been critical of the Fed's past policies, aligning with Trump's views [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with the Fed's operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [5]. - Michelle Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden administration, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street figure, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy, potentially offering a fresh perspective [5].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's comments suggest a desire for a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1]. - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and economic advisors, with interviews planned for November [3]. - The selection of a new chairman is critical as it will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the central bank's independence [1][3]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, a close associate of Trump, is seen as a strong candidate, but his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence during economic crises [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who has previously criticized the Fed's policies, is also a leading candidate and aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is considered a potential candidate who understands the Fed's operations and could implement reforms aligned with Trump's preferences [5]. - Michelle Bowman has a background in banking regulation and has opposed many Biden-era policies, making her an attractive option for Trump [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street executive, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal workings, which could provide a fresh perspective [5].