中航期货 2026-3-13 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 | 告 | 摘 | 报 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The U.S. CPI for February remained stable at 2.4%, matching expectations, while core CPI held at 2.5%[20] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with forecasts, and core CPI rose by 0.2%[20] - Super core service CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.8% year-on-year[20] Group 2: Future Inflation Expectations - CPI is expected to rise to around 3% in March and maintain approximately 3.1% in Q2, with core CPI slightly increasing to 2.7%[9] - High oil prices, projected to average $90 per barrel in Q2-Q3, could lead to a 14% increase in gasoline prices, significantly impacting CPI[9] - The delayed impact of last year's government shutdown on rent statistics will affect CPI calculations in April, as rent data will reflect four months instead of two[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, with the number of anticipated cuts dropping from 1.545 to 1.19[4] - The first expected interest rate cut has been pushed from September to December due to rising oil prices[4] - Financial markets are currently pricing in stable long-term inflation expectations, with only a 0-10 basis point increase observed since late February[17]

Group 1 - The US dollar index surged to 99.83, the highest level since November 28 [2] - The Japanese yen and Japanese government bonds fell, with the yen breaking below 159.45 against the dollar for the first time since July 2024 [3] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 5 basis points, while the 5-year yield increased by 4 basis points [3] Group 2 - The Indian rupee fell to a historical low of 92.3575 against the dollar [4] - On March 13, the Chinese yuan's central parity rate against the dollar was lowered by 48 basis points to 6.9007, with onshore and offshore yuan depreciating by 0.15% and 0.08% respectively [4] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in February, with core CPI increasing by 2.5% [4]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】美国 2 月 CPI 数据点评 "油价→通胀预期"是关键 主要观点 美国通胀或再度回升，2-3 季度可能维持在相对高位 2 月通胀温和，完全符合预期。CPI 同比持平于 2.4%，预期 2.4%；核心 CPI 同 比持平于 2.5%，预期 2.5%；超级核心服务 CPI 同比从 2.7%升至 2.8%。CPI 环 比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%；核心 CPI 环比 0.2%，预期 0.2%，前值 0.3%。 预计美国通胀或将从下个月开始回升。预计 3 月份 CPI 同比或升至 3%左右， Q2 维持在 3.1%左右，核心 CPI 同比在 Q2 回升小幅升至 2.7%。8-9 月份通胀 或逐步回落。影响上述走势的因素如下： 一是油价的冲击。假设油价在 Q2-Q3 维持在 90 美金/桶左右，即时影响是 3 月 美国汽油零售价或上涨 14%左右，带动 CPI 同比跳升至 3%。 二是去年政府关门对房租统计带来的滞后影响。政府关门导致去年 10 月 CPI 数据无法收集，美国劳工部直接用前值对 10 月数据进行填充，其余商品和服 务的价格在后续调查中得以修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential rebound of U.S. inflation, predicting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may rise to around 3% in March and maintain approximately 3.1% in Q2, with core CPI slightly increasing to 2.7% in Q2. It also highlights factors influencing this trend, including oil prices and statistical anomalies from previous government shutdowns [2][3][8]. Inflation Expectations - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations are crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. If long-term inflation expectations remain stable, the Fed may still lower rates despite rising overall inflation [5][14][15]. - The article notes that since the escalation of the Iran conflict in late February, long-term inflation expectations have remained stable, with increases in key indicators being modest, ranging from 0 to 10 basis points [15]. February CPI Data Analysis - The February CPI data met expectations, with the overall CPI year-on-year remaining at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5%. The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3%, aligning with forecasts [19][28]. - The article details the structural characteristics of the CPI, noting that food prices rose by 0.4%, energy prices by 0.6%, and core goods prices by 0.1%. Rent prices showed a slight increase, contributing to the CPI [25][26]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, with futures pricing indicating a reduction in the number of expected rate cuts from 1.545 to 1.19 times this year, and the first anticipated cut pushed from September to December [12][28]. - The article reports that U.S. stock markets experienced slight declines, the dollar index rose, and U.S. Treasury yields increased following the CPI data release [29].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The February US inflation data remains stable, indicating a mild transmission of tariffs. With recent tariff rate reductions and the time lag of previous transmission effects, it is expected that the impact of tariffs will peak in the first half of this year. However, the current data does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices, leading to market concerns about future inflation performance. If oil prices remain high at $80-90 per barrel for the next three months, it is projected to push the US CPI up by 0.3-0.4 percentage points, raising the reading to 3%-3.2%, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's rate cut operations in the short term [2]. Group 2: Industry Research - The demand for PCB drilling needles is expected to increase significantly due to the introduction of orthogonal backplane solutions in Nvidia's upcoming Rubin Ultra NVL576 architecture, replacing traditional copper cable connections. The core proposed solution currently involves "78-layer M9 resin + HVLP3/4 copper foil + Q cloth." The impact on PCB drilling needles includes: 1) a noticeable increase in consumption, 2) a rise in demand for high aspect ratio drilling needles, and 3) an increase in demand due to stringent back-drilling processes. Companies to watch in the high-end PCB drilling needle sector include Ding Tai High-Tech and World [3]. Group 3: Company Research - Tianqi Materials (002709.SZ) is expected to see a significant increase in lithium battery material demand, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2028. The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 6.179 billion (up 325%), 7.525 billion (up 277%), and 9.684 billion yuan, respectively, translating to EPS of 3.04, 3.70, and 4.76 yuan per share. The company maintains a "buy" rating [4]. - Jitu Express (1519.HK) is in a phase of scale expansion and accelerated profitability. The company has a solid foundation in Southeast Asia, with emerging markets (Latin America, Middle East) replicating its success, becoming a second growth engine. Strategic improvements in the Chinese market and the "anti-involution" policy are expected to boost single-ticket revenue, reinforcing the trend of profit recovery. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are $4.12 million, $6.54 million, and $8.67 million, respectively, leading to a "buy" rating [5]. - Taiji Group (600129.SH) is focusing on its pharmaceutical core business, emphasizing "technological innovation" and "marketing innovation" as dual engines. The adverse effects of pharmaceutical policies and inventory digestion are expected to diminish, with the company's operating performance having bottomed out and beginning to recover. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 111 million and 213 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast of 377 million yuan for 2027, leading to a downgrade to "hold" rating [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the statements from Iran's new Supreme Leader, which have heightened concerns over inflation and led to a sharp decline in U.S. stock markets [1][2]. Market Performance - All three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1.5%, indicating a broad sell-off, with the Dow Jones down 739.42 points (1.56%), the Nasdaq down 404.16 points (1.78%), and the S&P 500 down 103.22 points (1.52%) [6]. - The energy sector was the only one to see gains, with a 0.98% increase, while other sectors, including industrials and consumer discretionary, experienced declines of 2.52% and 2.21%, respectively [6]. Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures rose by 9.7% and Brent crude by 9.2%, nearing $100 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions due to the conflict [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of the largest oil supply disruption in history, exacerbating inflation concerns [3]. Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted to a "sell first, ask questions later" approach, with investors reacting to geopolitical tensions rather than focusing on fundamentals [4]. - The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates later this year is rapidly decreasing due to rising oil prices and ongoing conflict [5]. Sector-Specific Movements - Major tech stocks saw declines, with Nvidia down 1.55%, Amazon down 1.47%, and Tesla down 3.14% [7]. - Concerns in the private credit sector led to Morgan Stanley implementing redemption restrictions on a private credit fund, while JPMorgan downgraded valuations on some private credit loans, resulting in stock declines of 4.1% and 1.6%, respectively [8]. - Chemical companies like LyondellBasell and Dow saw stock increases of 10.3% and 9.3%, respectively, following a rating upgrade from Citigroup, which noted new export opportunities due to supply chain disruptions [9]. - Fertilizer producers experienced significant stock price increases, with CF Industries rising over 13% to a record high due to soaring fertilizer prices linked to the conflict [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates amid rising oil prices and economic concerns stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts, which could impact the Republican Party's prospects in the upcoming midterm elections [2][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Traders have significantly reduced their bets on interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a rate cut in 2026 no longer seen as 100% [5]. - Current expectations indicate a mere 24 basis points cut this year, down from an earlier expectation of 30 basis points [5]. - Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, rising oil prices complicate the monetary policy outlook, with inflation still above the Fed's 2% target [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Political Pressure - The ongoing Middle Eastern conflict has led to increased oil prices, threatening global supply chains and raising living costs for American citizens, which could negatively affect the Republican Party's control in Congress [2][3]. - Trump has consistently pressured Fed Chair Powell for significant rate cuts, advocating for a chair who actively lowers borrowing costs [4]. - The political landscape is further complicated by Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh to replace Powell, which is currently stalled due to investigations by the Department of Justice [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. Treasury market has been under pressure due to investor concerns about sustained high energy prices leading to renewed inflation [7]. - On Thursday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 3.30 basis points, reaching a high of 4.2746%, while the 2-year yield increased over 10 basis points to 3.7637% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East is causing significant volatility in global financial markets, with major stock indices in the U.S. experiencing sharp declines and oil prices surging dramatically [2][3]. Market Impact - On March 12, U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping over 739 points (1.56%), the Nasdaq down 1.78%, and the S&P 500 declining by 1.52%. Most sectors faced heavy selling, except for energy and some defensive stocks [3]. - Major tech stocks also saw declines, with Tesla down over 3%, Meta down over 2%, and other tech giants like Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, and Google falling by more than 1% [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.03%, with notable declines in stocks like Xiaopeng Motors and Li Auto, while NIO saw a slight increase [3]. Oil Price Surge - As of the close on March 12, WTI crude oil futures rose by 9.72% to $95.73 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 9.22% to $100.46 per barrel [4]. - The surge in oil prices is attributed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly following statements from Iran's new Supreme Leader, which dashed hopes for a quick resolution [5]. Geopolitical Developments - Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, indicated that Iran would continue strategic actions, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking U.S. military bases in the region [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of the largest oil supply disruption in history due to the conflict, with oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz dropping from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near halt [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is increasingly recognizing that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates later this year is rapidly decreasing, with traders reducing their bets on rate cuts [7]. - President Trump has called for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in response to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, emphasizing the need for action before the next policy meeting [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased volatility in global financial markets, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a sharp rise in oil prices [1][2][3]. - On March 12, U.S. stock indices experienced a substantial drop, with the Dow Jones falling over 739 points (1.56%), the Nasdaq down 1.78%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.52%. Most sectors faced heavy selling, except for energy and some defensive stocks [2]. - Oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 9.72% to $95.73 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 9.22% to $100.46 per barrel. This spike is attributed to geopolitical tensions and concerns over inflation [3]. Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the Middle East conflict on U.S. monetary policy, noting that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates later this year is rapidly decreasing due to rising oil prices [5]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with traders reducing their expectations for interest rate cuts, now anticipating only a 24 basis point reduction compared to previous expectations of 30 basis points [5]. - President Trump has called for immediate action from the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in response to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, emphasizing the urgency of the situation [4]. Group 3 - The article mentions that the Iranian leadership has indicated a continuation of strategic actions, including potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, which could further disrupt oil supply and exacerbate inflationary pressures [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of the largest oil supply disruption in history due to the ongoing conflict, with oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz dropping from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near halt [3]. - The article also notes that the U.S. government is considering temporarily waiving the Jones Act to facilitate the transportation of energy and agricultural products amid rising fuel prices and supply chain disruptions [3].