Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive, with larger fluctuations but potentially higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive, with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity. Since July, the stock index has continued to rise with a large increase, with short - term fluctuations and consolidations, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (IF当月, IF下月, IF下季, IF隔季) were 4562.00, 4554.40, 4530.20, and 4507.20 respectively, with increases of 117.40, 117.20, 115.00, and 113.20, and increases of 2.64%, 2.64%, 2.60%, and 2.58% respectively. The trading volumes were 96412.00, 11604.00, 47652.00, and 13945.00 respectively, and the open interests were 115085.00, 18038.00, 108324.00, and 40692.00 respectively, with changes of 1600.00, 2953.00, 1872.00, and 239.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (IH当月, IH下月, IH下季, IH隔季) were 2990.20, 2988.60, 2988.40, and 2991.20 respectively, with increases of 46.00, 45.20, 45.20, and 45.40, and increases of 1.56%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 1.54% respectively. The trading volumes were 42028.00, 4349.00, 19781.00, and 4837.00 respectively, and the open interests were 50570.00, 7175.00, 36302.00, and 10351.00 respectively, with changes of 2315.00, 1502.00, 3653.00, and 1041.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (IC当月, IC下月, IC下季, IC隔季) were 7124.60, 7073.00, 6969.20, and 6823.20 respectively, with increases of 236.80, 247.20, 259.20, and 266.60, and increases of 3.44%, 3.62%, 3.86%, and 4.07% respectively. The trading volumes were 103556.00, 16823.00, 55990.00, and 19426.00 respectively, and the open interests were 105917.00, 22720.00, 96364.00, and 41335.00 respectively, with changes of 623.00, 7285.00, 7632.00, and 3408.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (IM当月, IM下月, IM下季, IM隔季) were 7387.80, 7326.00, 7183.60, and 6994.00 respectively, with increases of 211.20, 213.60, 218.60, and 216.60, and increases of 2.94%, 3.00%, 3.14%, and 3.20% respectively. The trading volumes were 181199.00, 20631.00, 87901.00, and 28376.00 respectively, and the open interests were 147845.00, 34852.00, 136366.00, and 69269.00 respectively, with changes of - 6657.00, 4743.00, 3831.00, and 2712.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF下月 - IF当月, IH下月 - IH当月, IC下月 - IC当月, and IM下月 - IM当月 were - 7.60, - 1.60, - 51.60, and - 61.80 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 9.60, - 1.60, - 60.40, and - 62.40 respectively [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4548.03, with a trading volume of 6931.57 billion yuan and a trading volume of 253.26 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 4445.36, with a rise of 2.31%. The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 2983.08, with a trading volume of 1884.95 billion yuan and a trading volume of 68.33 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 2939.59, with a rise of 1.48%. The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7122.71, with a trading volume of 4694.98 billion yuan and a trading volume of 243.95 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 6932.11, with a rise of 2.75%. The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7399.89, with a trading volume of 4862.37 billion yuan and a trading volume of 293.98 billion hands, and a previous two - day value of 7230.17, with a rise of 2.35% [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had increases of 0.28%, 1.64%, 1.43%, and 0.69% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had increases of 0.96%, - 0.40%, 1.36%, and 6.34% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had increases of 8.27% and 0.10% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of IF当月 - CSI 300, IF下月 - CSI 300, IF下季 - CSI 300, and IF隔季 - CSI 300 were 13.97, 6.37, - 17.83, and - 40.83 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.96, - 22.56, - 44.76, and - 67.16 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of IH当月 - SSE 50, IH下月 - SSE 50, IH下季 - SSE 50, and IH隔季 - SSE 50 were 7.12, 5.52, 5.32, and 8.12 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 1.79, - 3.39, - 2.79, and 0.21 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of IC当月 - CSI 500, IC下月 - CSI 500, IC下季 - CSI 500, and IC隔季 - CSI 500 were 1.89, - 49.71, - 153.51, and - 299.51 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 68.71, - 129.11, - 249.31, and - 400.91 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of IM当月 - CSI 1000, IM下月 - CSI 1000, IM下季 - CSI 1000, and IM隔季 - CSI 1000 were - 12.09, - 73.89, - 216.29, and - 405.89 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 79.17, - 141.57, - 291.97, and - 480.17 respectively [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous value of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3875.31, with a previous two - day value of 3812.22 and a rise of 1.65%. The previous value of the Shenzhen Component Index was 12979.89, with a previous two - day value of 12557.68 and a rise of 3.36%. The previous value of the Small and Medium - sized Board Index was 7923.26, with a previous two - day value of 7686.96 and a rise of 3.07%. The previous value of the ChiNext Index was 3053.75, with a previous two - day value of 2904.27 and a rise of 5.15% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous value of the Hang Seng Index was 26086.32, with a previous two - day value of 26200.26 and a decline of 0.43%. The previous value of the Nikkei 225 was 44372.50, with a previous two - day value of 43837.67 and a rise of 1.22%. The previous value of the S&P 500 was 6587.47, with a previous two - day value of 6532.04 and a rise of 0.85%. The previous value of the DAX Index was 23703.65, with a previous two - day value of 23632.95 and a rise of 0.30% [1] V. Macroeconomic Information - **Domestic**: The State Council approved a two - year pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu, covering traditional factors such as land, labor, and capital, as well as innovative factors such as technology and data, aiming to remove institutional obstacles to factor flow and efficient allocation. The People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Indonesia launched a bilateral local - currency settlement framework and a QR - code interconnection cooperation project [2] - **International**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in August rose 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and 0.4% month - on - month, slightly higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021. After the data release, traders fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on some trading partners, and China's Ministry of Commerce said it would closely monitor the situation and take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [2] VI. Industry Information - **Automobile Industry**: In 2026 and 2027, the purchase tax on new - energy vehicles will be halved to 5%. In August, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, up 13% and 16.4% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time [2] - **Internet Industry**: The National Internet Information Office shut down or restricted multiple illegal accounts such as "券业行家" and "国际投行研究报告" [2] - **Labor Union**: The All - China Federation of Trade Unions held a meeting on platform algorithm and labor rule negotiation. As of now, 15 leading platform companies have been included in the scope of work, 7 of which have signed special agreements on algorithms and labor rules, and the rest are expected to complete negotiations and sign agreements by the end of September, covering over 20 million new - form workers [2]

2025年09月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：金银比上行 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：累库持续 | 7 | | 铅：价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：弱势运行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：窄幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：产量延续回暖，偏弱震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注今日内蒙会议信息 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪再次发酵，关注仓单注册 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：螺纹需求相对较弱，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：热卷需求韧性良好，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：油价走低，估值再次下探 ...

在传统要素领域改革外，此次试点还围绕数据、空域、频谱轨道等新型要素配置、服务业领域改革等部 署了一批重点改革试点任务。李春临介绍，随着经济社会发展，很多新兴领域涌现出新的生产要素，新 型要素发展呈现出很多有别于传统要素的新特征，要素配置方面也面临着很多新情况。要探索形成新的 市场和配置规则，增强新业态新领域要素保障，推动生产要素创新性配置，希望通过试点能够进一步打 破新型要素进入行业体系和产业体系的准入壁垒，推动更多新型要素加速向新质生产力转化。 当前，全国统一大市场建设不断向纵深推进，如何更好吸引和配置优质要素成为一项重要课题。"试点 方案充分考虑地方发展特点与实际，支持试点地区以更加开放灵活的方式利用各类创新资源，提出加快 推进国际先进技术应用、允许具有境外国际通行职业资格的专业人员按相关规定取得工作许可后提供专 业化的服务、深化国际互联网数据专用通道应用等任务，实现技术、人才、数据等关键战略要素高效配 置，为全国统一大市场建设和经济社会高质量发展提供更加丰富的要素支撑。"李春临说。 (责任编辑：朱赫) 从国务院新闻办公室11日举行的国务院政策例行吹风会上获悉，全国10个地区从即日起2年内开展要素 市场化 ...

Market Performance - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance with all three major indices rebounding, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index reaching new highs for the year [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 459.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 5.15% [3] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector performed strongly throughout the day, while satellite internet concept stocks continued their upward trend, and chip concept stocks collectively surged [2] - The CPO, PCB, and liquid cooling server sectors saw the largest gains, while the film and theater sector showed weakness [2] International Market Overview - U.S. stock indices all reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 617.08 points (1.36%) to close at 46,108.00 points, the S&P 500 up by 55.43 points (0.85%) to 6,587.47 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 157.01 points (0.72%) to 22,043.07 points [4] - European stock indices also rose, with the FTSE 100 up by 72.19 points (0.78%), the CAC 40 up by 62.20 points (0.80%), and the DAX up by 70.70 points (0.30%) [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures for October down by $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel (a decrease of 2.04%), and Brent crude oil futures for November down by $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel (a decrease of 1.66%) [4] Economic Policies and Initiatives - The State Council approved a two-year pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including Beijing's sub-center and several urban agglomerations, to enhance economic development [6] - The People's Bank of China and Bank Indonesia launched a bilateral currency settlement framework and cross-border QR code interoperability project, aiming to facilitate the use of local currencies in bilateral trade and investment [7][8] - The People's Bank of China plans to increase financial support for regions implementing market-oriented allocation reforms [8] Automotive Industry - In August, automobile sales reached 2.857 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, with production reaching 2.815 million units, reflecting a positive trend in the automotive sector [10] Investment Insights - Citic Securities highlighted Apple's upcoming product launches, including the iPhone 17 series and AirPods Pro 3, emphasizing the company's stable pricing strategy and potential for hardware innovation [11] - CITIC JianTou noted the necessity for transformation in the pharmacy sector, predicting a split into specialized and diversified pharmacies to meet evolving consumer needs [11] Industry Fund Flow - The communication equipment sector saw a net inflow of 8.878 billion yuan, with a 4.11% increase, while the semiconductor sector also experienced significant inflows [15] - Conversely, the cultural media sector faced a net outflow of 2.064 billion yuan, indicating challenges within that industry [17] Individual Stock Movements - Notable individual stocks with significant net inflows included Haiguang Information and Luxshare Precision, reflecting strong investor interest [18] - In contrast, stocks like Erli San and Liou Shares experienced substantial net outflows, indicating potential investor concerns [18]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has approved a pilot program for comprehensive reform of factor market-oriented allocation in ten regions, including major urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, to enhance economic growth and innovation [1][2] - The pilot program aims to improve the efficiency of factor allocation by focusing on various aspects such as stimulating technological innovation, optimizing land resource allocation, facilitating the flow of human resources, and developing a data factor market [1][2] - The pilot program is set to be implemented for two years, with an expected completion date in 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Natural Resources emphasizes the importance of land as a production factor and aims to deepen the market-oriented allocation of land resources through the pilot program [2] - Key areas of exploration in the pilot program include reforming land management systems, innovating industrial land supply, and revitalizing idle and inefficient land [2][3] - The Ministry plans to guide pilot regions in exploring and promoting efficient land allocation and utilization to support the construction of a high-level socialist market economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council has approved a comprehensive reform pilot for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, aiming to enhance the efficiency of resource allocation and promote high-quality economic development [2][4]. Group 1: Reform Pilot Overview - The pilot involves ten regions, including Beijing's urban sub-center and key cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and other provinces, which collectively account for over a quarter of the national economic output [4][5]. - The pilot aims to improve the factor market system and facilitate the smooth flow of resources across regions and sectors, thereby optimizing resource allocation efficiency [4][5]. Group 2: New Factor Exploration - The reform supports the exploration of new factors such as data, computing power, airspace, and spectrum allocation, alongside traditional factors like land, labor, and capital [2][5]. - The pilot regions will focus on enhancing the collaborative efficiency of factors and ensuring the security of new industries and service sectors [6][7]. Group 3: Data Factor Market - The pilot will emphasize the value release of public data resources, collaborative innovation in data utilization, and the establishment of a secure data circulation and trading mechanism [7][8]. - Regions like Beijing, Hangzhou, and Zhengzhou will prioritize the development and utilization of public data resources, supported by the National Data Bureau [7][8].

Group 1: Policy and Market Reforms - The State Council of China has approved a pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in 10 regions, including major urban areas and economic zones, to be implemented over the next two years [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission will work with pilot regions to organize and implement the reform, aiming to create a replicable model for nationwide application [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing over 3%, and the ChiNext Index surging over 5% [2] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 23,255.93 billion yuan, with an increase of over 63 billion yuan in September alone [2] - Analysts believe that the A-share market has sustainable upward momentum supported by favorable policy expectations and stable liquidity [2] Group 3: Insurance Industry Developments - Leading insurance companies have reported profitability in their new energy vehicle insurance segments, marking a turnaround from previous losses [3] - Factors contributing to this profitability include improved data accumulation for pricing, increased premium scale, and enhanced collaboration with automakers [3] - The new energy vehicle insurance sector is expected to reach a turning point in profitability within the next three years [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Multiple public fund companies are optimistic about equity asset investment opportunities, indicating a favorable market environment for structural opportunities [4] - The trend of long-term capital entering the market is accelerating, with significant growth in stock allocations by insurance companies and the total scale of domestic ETFs surpassing 50 trillion yuan [8] - The "insurance buying insurance" trend is emerging, with companies like Ping An increasing their stakes in other insurance firms, reflecting a positive outlook on the industry [9] Group 5: Technology and Innovation - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant acquisition, with Chipone Technology being acquired by Xinyu Semiconductor to enhance its RISC-V CPU IP capabilities [5] - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to accelerate its development, with several A-share companies reporting progress and new product launches [6][7] - Solid-state batteries are gaining traction in the market, seen as a key technology for global energy transition, with A-share related stocks performing strongly [12] Group 6: Mergers and Acquisitions - Dongyangguang Group has completed a major acquisition of Qinhuai Data's China operations for 28 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone in the data center industry [13] - This acquisition is indicative of a deeper capital integration phase within the data center sector, leading to increased industry concentration and a focus on location value and customer loyalty [14]

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - YouSheng Co., Ltd. has a subscription code of 732418, with an issue price of 46.36 yuan per share and a subscription limit of 15,000 shares [1] Group 2: Economic Policies and Reforms - The State Council has approved a two-year pilot program for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions, including Beijing's sub-center and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, to enhance financial support and data sharing [2] - The People's Bank of China will increase financial support for pilot regions to promote higher levels of financial openness and cooperation [2] Group 3: Automotive Industry Performance - From January to August, China's automotive production and sales both exceeded 20 million units for the first time, with production at 21.05 million units and sales at 21.13 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [3] - New energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of total new car sales, with production and sales reaching 9.63 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 37.3% and 36.7% [3] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Relations - The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of foreign trade, stating that despite external pressures, China's foreign trade has shown resilience and progress [4] - Recent trade talks between China and the U.S. have led to positive consensus, aiming to stabilize economic relations [4] Group 5: Tourism Development Initiatives - Guangdong Province has introduced measures to enhance the quality of inbound tourism, including optimizing visa policies and promoting deep integration of travel and tourism [4] Group 6: Financial Market Updates - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, with the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively [4] - In the U.S., the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims were reported at 263,000, higher than anticipated [5] Group 7: Company News - China Shipbuilding has completed a share swap merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, with new shares set to be listed on September 16 [6] - Chipone Technology reported new orders worth 1.205 billion yuan from July 1 to September 11, an increase of 85.88% compared to the same period last year [6] - Xianlead Intelligent Technology noted that the global solid-state battery industry is still in the technology iteration phase and has not yet entered large-scale production [6] Group 8: Industry Insights - Wanlian Securities recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the engineering machinery sector that have market advantages and are actively expanding overseas, as domestic demand is expected to recover [8] - Guojin Securities highlights the investment opportunities in solid-state batteries, which offer advantages over traditional lithium batteries and are supported by policies and major manufacturers [9]

盘前要闻 1、国务院批准在10个地区开展要素市场化配置综合改革试点 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 国务院同意自即日起2年内开展北京城市副中心、苏南重点城市等10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。 央行表示，将加大对要素市场化配置综合改革试点地区的金融支持力度；国家数据局表示，将支持试点 地区探索数据流通交易新模式。 2、中国资产爆发！中概指数逼近年内新高，超九成美国投资者愿加仓中国资产 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 隔夜美股市场，中国资产全线爆发，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨近3%，距离今年3月高点仅一步之遥 ，热门股阿里巴巴大涨8%。摩根士丹利报告中显示，超过90%的美国投资者明确表示愿意增加对中国 市场的敞口，这是自2021年初以来的最高水平。 3、"保险买保险"再度上演，险资增配权益资产逻辑浮出水面 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 4、墨西哥称计划对中国等国征收50%关税，外交部回应：坚决维护自身权益 类型：宏观 情绪影响：中性 据报道，墨西哥计划对中国和一些亚洲出口国生产的汽车和其他产品征收高达50%的关税。外交部发言 人林剑表示，中方始终倡导普惠包容的经济全球化，反对各种形式的单边主义、保护主义以及歧视性排 他性措 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the approval of 10 pilot areas for market-oriented allocation of factors, including major cities and regions in China, aimed at enhancing financial support and data sharing [3] - In the automotive sector, China's production and sales exceeded 20 million units for the first time in the first eight months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [4] - The article highlights the significant growth in new energy vehicles, with production and sales reaching 9.63 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and accounting for 45.5% of total new car sales [4] Group 2 - The article mentions that the Ministry of Commerce is focused on stabilizing foreign trade amidst complex external conditions, with ongoing trade talks between China and the US yielding positive outcomes [5] - Guangdong Province has introduced measures to enhance the quality of inbound tourism, including optimizing visa policies and improving service offerings [5] - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2%, with other key rates unchanged, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [6] Group 3 - China Shipbuilding has completed a share swap merger with China State Shipbuilding Corporation, with new shares set to be listed on September 16 [8] - Chip Origin Technology has signed new orders worth 1.205 billion yuan from July 1 to September 11, reflecting an 85.88% increase compared to the same period last year [9] - Jimin Health's stock trading has shown significant anomalies, indicating potential risks of rapid declines [10] Group 4 - Wanlian Securities recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the engineering machinery sector that have market advantages and are actively expanding overseas [15] - Guojin Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities in solid-state batteries, highlighting their advantages over traditional lithium batteries and the growing support from policies and major manufacturers [16]