证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Group 1: Business Performance - The company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate since the second quarter, indicating strong order fulfillment [2] - The mobile communication sector remains a traditional stronghold, with a significant market share among core customers [2][3] Group 2: Automotive Electronics - The company is a leading manufacturer of automotive magnetic components in China, focusing on applications related to "three electrics and one integration" in new energy vehicles [3] - Continuous innovation and expansion of product lines are prioritized to meet long-term customer needs [3] Group 3: Ceramic Business Outlook - The subsidiary has been involved in precision ceramic components for years, targeting markets such as smart wearables, consumer electronics, and new energy [3] - The solid oxide fuel cell sector is a key focus for future growth, with rapid development expected to contribute to sales revenue [3] Group 4: Expense Management - Overall expense management is under control, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 24% in sales revenue since the company went public [4] - Investments are aligned with long-term strategic goals, focusing on talent development, R&D, and new product development [4] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Plans - The company operates in a capital-intensive industry, necessitating ongoing expansion and high funding requirements [4] - Significant investments in industrial park infrastructure are expected to slow down in the coming years as major projects are completed [4]

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining (601168) has shown a slight increase in stock price, closing at 16.52 yuan, with a market capitalization of 39.367 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the industrial metals sector and 340th in the A-share market [1] Weekly Focus - The company conducted an institutional survey on June 12, discussing key topics such as hedging strategies, capital expenditures, and future development plans [1][2] - The company has a hedging ratio of approximately 50% for externally purchased raw materials to mitigate price fluctuations [1] - Annual capital expenditure is around 3 billion yuan, with the capital expenditure for the third phase of Yulong Copper's construction estimated at 5 billion yuan [1][6] - Currently, there are no plans for share buybacks or equity incentive programs, but the company will disclose any future plans [1] Resource Potential - Yulong Copper Mine has significant resource reserve potential, particularly in the unsealed areas of the ore body, with ongoing geological research and exploration efforts [2] Announcements - The company will participate in an online investor reception day on June 18, 2025, to discuss its 2024 annual performance and future strategies [3] - A cash dividend of 1 yuan per share will be distributed, with the record date set for June 19, 2025, and the payment date on June 20, 2025, totaling 2.383 billion yuan [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the changes in operating income, net profit margin, and capital expenditure for the automotive parts sector in 2024A and Q1 2025, indicating that precision parts, chassis components, and electronic components show relatively good growth and capital expenditure intensity [4][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure for manufacturing enterprises to maintain operational capabilities, suggesting that capital expenditure is a precursor to future output and can help identify investment opportunities in sectors with high growth potential [4][10] Summary by Sections 1. Growth Potential - In 2024A, the operating income growth rates are as follows: electronic components (-), chassis components (+), body components (-), exterior components (-), overall industry (+), precision parts (+), powertrain components (+), interior components (+), and molds (-) [10][13] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 5.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows a net profit margin of 5.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [15][19] - The report categorizes the growth potential into four tiers based on operating income growth and net profit margin changes, with precision parts and chassis components performing well [10][11][15] 2. Capital Expenditure Intensity - The capital expenditure as a percentage of operating income for the automotive parts sector in 2024 is 6.9%, which is an increase compared to the previous year, while Q1 2025 shows a decrease to 6.4% [22] - The report identifies different tiers of capital expenditure intensity across various segments, with electronic components and molds showing high capital expenditure intensity [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high capital expenditure and growth potential, particularly precision parts (gears, bearings), chassis components (steering systems, suspension), electronic components, and thermal management systems [4][10] - Recommended companies include Shuanglin Co., Guansheng Co., Jifeng Co., and Huayang Group, with additional mentions of Zhejiang Shibao, Zhongding Co., Meili Technology, and others [4][10]

Core Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that corporate executives have communicated that capital expenditure plans will be ready following the approval of the tax legislation on Capitol Hill [1] Group 1 - Corporate executives are awaiting the passage of tax legislation before finalizing their capital expenditure plans [1]

甲骨文：预计2026财年资本开支超过250亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - Investment in high-tech industries has been surpassed by overall manufacturing investment for the first time, indicating a shift in trends after three years of low returns on investments [1][3][4] - Many sectors, including new energy and semiconductors, are showing signs of overcapacity, with rapid technological iterations leading to outdated "new" technologies [3][4] - Private investments focused on financial returns have lagged behind state-owned enterprises, highlighting a disparity in investment strategies [4] Group 2 - Corporate profits are finally showing signs of recovery, with many sectors experiencing profit rebounds, although the automotive industry continues to struggle [5][9] - The gap between fixed asset investment in manufacturing and overall profits is narrowing, suggesting a potential shift towards prioritizing shareholder returns [9][11] - Regulatory pressures in the automotive sector and tightening capital constraints are contributing to a more sustainable investment environment [11] Group 3 - The growth rate of high-tech service industries remains strong, outperforming the manufacturing sector [14] - Consumer spending on services is lagging behind goods due to supply constraints and a lack of quality offerings, impacting overall consumption patterns [17][19] - New consumption trends, particularly those with emotional and differentiated attributes, are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21]

Summary of BYD Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYD - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles and Battery Manufacturing Key Points Production Capacity and Expansion - BYD's domestic production capacity is nearing completion, with planned capacity reaching 5.42 million vehicles, potentially expanding to 6 million vehicles [2][3] - Overseas factories in Thailand and Uzbekistan are operational, while Brazil and Hungary are expected to release capacity in the next two years, aiding foreign exchange reserves [2][3] Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) - From 2021 to 2024, BYD's cumulative capital expenditure is projected to be CNY 354.2 billion, with a peak in 2023 at CNY 120 billion, followed by a decrease to CNY 97.4 billion in 2024, representing a 20% year-on-year decline [2][5] - The CAPEX/DA ratio indicates a reduction in new capital expenditure demand after peaking in 2022 [5][6] Depreciation Policy Changes - In March 2023, BYD changed its accounting policy, shortening the depreciation period for power batteries and machinery, leading to an increase in the overall depreciation rate to 15.6% in 2024, impacting pre-tax profit by approximately 7.3% [2][5][7] - The aggressive depreciation policy has significantly reduced future depreciation pressure, enhancing profitability [7] Future Capital Expenditure Outlook - With domestic capacity nearing completion and a slowdown in overseas expansion, BYD's future capital expenditure is expected to decrease further, with ongoing projects down 42.5% year-on-year to CNY 20 billion [6][8] - The company is entering a phase of reduced capital expenditure, which will increase profit release potential [6] Asset Depreciation Rates - BYD has increased depreciation rates for various asset categories: machinery by 1.3%, transportation tools by 6.8%, and office equipment by 5.9%, resulting in implied depreciation periods of less than three years for machinery and transportation tools, and 1.6 years for office equipment [7][9] Battery and Vehicle Production Plans - BYD plans to increase domestic passenger vehicle capacity from 5.42 million to 5.92 million and exports from 350,000 to 1.55 million vehicles, while battery capacity is expected to grow from 655 GWh to 810 GWh [4][11] Long-term Outlook - BYD is positioned as a leader in the global new energy sector, focusing on advanced technology and market leadership, with plans for continued product innovation and global expansion [13] Research Reports - Recent research reports on BYD have focused on domestic market share comparisons, profitability analysis, and fixed asset depreciation, with future reports planned on overseas business strategies [14] Additional Insights - The capital expenditure is primarily allocated to buildings (27.7%), machinery (61.8%), and office equipment (8%) [9] - The unit capital expenditure for battery capacity expansion can be benchmarked against CATL's data, which indicates an average of CNY 260 million per GWh [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The company focuses on high-quality development with stable capital expenditures and solid cost advantages, leading to a robust financial performance in 2024 and 2025 [2][11] - CNOOC's revenue for 2024 is projected at 420.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 137.9 billion RMB, up 11.38% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of approximately 106.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 36.56 billion RMB, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][3] - The average realized oil price in Q1 2025 was 72.65 USD per barrel, a decline of 7.7% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 1.2% to 7.78 USD per thousand cubic feet [3][10] - CNOOC's total oil and gas production for 2024 was 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [2][10] Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - The company achieved a barrel of oil cost of 28.52 USD in 2024, a slight decrease from 28.83 USD in 2023, indicating improved cost management [10] - For 2025, CNOOC plans to maintain high capital expenditures between 125 billion to 135 billion RMB, focusing on exploration and production [11] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 139.76 billion RMB, with an expected EPS of 2.94 RMB [11][13] - The company is projected to maintain a stable net profit growth trajectory through 2027, with estimates of 143.45 billion RMB and 144.67 billion RMB for 2026 and 2027, respectively [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [4] Core Views - The financial indicators for 2024 show steady improvement, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 11.38% year-on-year, reaching 137.936 billion yuan [2][11] - The company focuses on its core oil and gas business, continuously increasing reserves and production, leading to a rise in oil and gas output and net profit margin despite fluctuations in international oil prices [2][11] - The average realized oil price for the first quarter of 2025 was 72.65 USD/barrel, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while gas prices increased by 1.2% [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the operating revenue is projected to be 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, with a net profit of 137.936 billion yuan [2][13] - The company achieved an oil and gas production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, a growth of 7.2% year-on-year, with a sales net profit margin of 32.81%, up by 3.02% [2][11] - The debt-to-asset ratio improved to 29.05%, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year, indicating better financial stability [2][11] Cost Management - The average oil cost per barrel for 2024 was 28.52 USD, down from 28.83 USD in 2023, reflecting a solid cost advantage [10] - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures in 2025, with a budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan, focusing on exploration and development [11][13] Production Goals - The production target for 2025 is set between 760 to 780 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [11][13] - The company aims to pursue high-quality development and effective production growth [11]