(责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇5月9日｜海关总署发布的数据显示，以人民币计价，中国4月进出口总额3.84万亿元，同比增长 5.6%。其中，出口总额2.27万亿元，同比增长9.3%(前值13.5%)；进口总额1.57万亿元，同比增长0.8% (前值-3.5%)。中国4月贸易顺差6899.9亿元，前值7367.2亿元。 ...

智通财经5月9日电，中国4月以美元计价出口同比增长8.1%，预估为增长2.0%；中国4月以美元计价进 口同比下降0.2%，预估为下降6.0%。 中国4月以美元计价出口同比增长8.1% 好于预期 ...

韩国4月出口同比增长3.7%，预期下降2%；4月进口同比下降2.7%，预期下降7%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月14日 进出口数据快评 出口增速大幅度回升 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 4 月 14 日，据海关总署发布的数据显示，中国 3 月以人民币计价进口同比下降 3.5%，出口同比增长 13.5%； 以美元计价进口同比下降 4.3%，以美元计价出口同比增长 12.4%。 评论： 出口增速大幅回升 2025 年 3 月出口增速当月同比达到+12.4%，较 1-2 月+2.3%的水平大幅度上升，同时也显著超出一致预期 +3.48%的水平。在度过春节假期扰动后，本月出口增速回升与 3 月 PMI 出口新订单指数上行指向保持一致， 同时周边国家如韩国、越南等国家出口情况在 3 月份也普遍出现较大回升。往后看，在关税问题 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, amounting to 909.37 billion USD, with exports at 539.94 billion USD (up 2.3%) and imports at 369.43 billion USD (down 8.4%). The trade surplus increased by 36.9% year-on-year to 170.52 billion USD [2][3] Summary by Sections Export Analysis - Export growth has significantly declined by 8.4 percentage points to 2.3% compared to December 2024, primarily due to base effects and fewer working days. The impact of the U.S. tariff policy is not yet fully reflected, as the tariffs were implemented shortly before the Chinese New Year [3][7] - Exports of raw materials and labor-intensive consumer goods have seen a notable decline, while machinery, electrical products, and high-tech products continue to grow at a faster pace. The export growth of steel, aluminum, and refined oil products has decreased [3][7] - The export growth rates to major trading partners have mostly declined, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, the U.S., and Latin America decreasing to 5.7%, 0.6%, 2.3%, and 3.2% respectively [7] Import Analysis - Import growth has turned negative, dropping by 8.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from December 2024, influenced by the production off-season and slow post-holiday resumption of work [8] - The decline in import volume is reflected in the prices of international commodities, with the CRB index showing significant positive year-on-year changes, indicating a contraction in import quantities [8] - Imports of crude oil and fuel products continue to shrink, while the import growth of machinery and high-tech products has slowed, suggesting overall stagnation in industrial production [8] Forward-Looking Insights - The impact of the U.S. tariff policies is expected to intensify throughout the year, putting pressure on China's exports. This includes direct impacts on exports to the U.S. and uncertainties in the global trade environment, which may lead to a contraction in overall trade demand [10] - Short-term "export rush" and resilient demand from non-U.S. trading partners may still support export growth rates. With comprehensive policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, import growth may see some recovery [10]