Group 1: Report Core Views - The government's main expected targets for economic development in 2026 include a GDP growth rate of 4.5% - 5%, a target of over 12 million new urban jobs, a CPI increase of around 2%, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP [3]. - The government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth and maintain stability [4]. Group 2: Government Expected Targets - **GDP Growth**: The expected GDP growth rate for 2026 is 4.5% - 5%, compared to 5% in 2025 [3][5]. - **New Urban Jobs**: The target for new urban jobs in 2026 is over 12 million, the same as in 2025 [3][5]. - **CPI**: The expected CPI increase in 2026 is around 2%, consistent with 2025 [3][5]. - **Fiscal Deficit**: The deficit rate in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [4][5]. - **Urban Survey Unemployment Rate**: The expected urban survey unemployment rate in 2026 is around 5.5%, the same as in 2025 [3][5]. - **Local Special Bonds**: The planned issuance of local government special bonds in 2026 is 4.4 trillion yuan, the same as in 2025 [4][5]. Group 3: Actual Economic Performance - **GDP Growth**: In 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5%, and in 2024 it was also 5% [5]. - **CPI**: In 2025, the actual CPI cumulative increase was 0%, and in 2024 it was 0.2% [5]. - **Deficit Rate**: The actual deficit rate (national fiscal revenue - expenditure gap) in 2024 was -4.81 [5]. - **Urban Survey Unemployment Rate**: In 2025, the actual urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1% [5].

Group 1 - The government plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a proposed deficit rate of around 4% for 2026, and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The general public budget expenditure is set to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of approximately 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year [2] Group 2 - The government intends to issue long-term special bonds amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan to support "two heavy" constructions and "two new" initiatives [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, key factors to watch include market expectation gaps from the Two Sessions, economic data from January - February, supply pressure and central bank liquidity hedging, and bond market pricing under geopolitical conflicts and risk aversion [5][61]. - The bond market has favorable conditions in the long - term, but short - term substantial loose monetary policy implementation needs to wait. The current odds for the 10 - year bond at around 1.78% are not high, and it is recommended to gradually reduce duration leverage and stay calm [6][64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillate Downward, and the Yield Curve Flattens - In February, the bond market showed a pre - holiday strong and post - holiday strengthening trend. The 10Y Treasury yield decreased by 3.6BP, and the 1Y Treasury yield increased by 1.7BP. The term spread narrowed by 5.28BP to 45.9BP [1][10]. - The yield curve flattened in February, with the 6M, 5Y, and 10Y yields decreasing by about 4BP, and the 2 - 3Y and 7Y yields decreasing by 1 - 2BP. The 9M - 1Y yields increased by 1 - 2BP [11]. - Overseas, US inflation showed a decline, but there were differences in the Fed's interest - rate decisions. The US bond yield decreased from 4.26% to 3.97%, and the Sino - US yield spread inverted and narrowed by 24.5BP to about 219BP [12]. 3.2 This Month's Outlook and Strategy 3.2.1 Bond Market Outlook: Pay Attention to Key Statements from the Two Sessions and Supply Pressure - **Fundamentals**: Monitor whether the bond market will price in re - inflation risks under the moderate recovery of CPI and continuous positive growth of PPI; pay attention to the possible rebound of export growth due to the decline of new US tariffs on China; note the implementation and data verification of Shanghai's real - estate policies after the Spring Festival housing sales recovery; and focus on the Two Sessions and the government work report and their expectation gaps with the market [2][26]. - **Supply**: The net supply of government bonds in March is expected to be about 1.77 trillion yuan, with more special bonds issued, especially the debt - resolution part may continue to accelerate. The net supplies of new special bonds, replacement hidden - debt special bonds, Treasury bonds, and new general bonds are expected to be about 3793 billion yuan, 6167 billion yuan, 7011 billion yuan, and 684 billion yuan respectively [2][36]. - **Funding**: In March, focus on the impact of the Two Sessions' expectation gaps and geopolitical conflicts on the bond market under the front - loaded fiscal policy. Historically, the funding situation around the Two Sessions shows a pattern of "loose before the meeting, stable during the meeting, and tight after the meeting", but the central bank's intention to maintain liquidity is clear, and the funding is not expected to tighten significantly [3][43]. - **Policy**: In March, the key is the implementation of expectations from the Two Sessions. The GDP growth target in 2026 is expected to be 4.5 - 5.0%. The government will maintain an active front - loaded fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with a 50BP reserve - requirement ratio cut and a 10 - 20BP interest - rate cut in line with the baseline expectation [3][52]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In February, institutional allocation continued to increase but at a slower pace. The main buyers shifted from large banks to small and medium - sized banks and insurance companies. The net selling of trading desks decreased significantly. In March, if interest rates continue to decline, trading - desk sentiment may improve; if the Two Sessions' economic and fiscal policies exceed expectations, the willingness of insurance and other allocation desks may increase, and the over - adjustment of interest rates may be limited [4][58]. 3.2.2 Bond Market Strategy: The Deduction after the 10 - Year Bond Yield Breaks Below 1.8%, with the Expectation Gap of the Two Sessions and the Geopolitical Conflict Direction as Key Factors - In March, pay attention to the market expectation gap from the Two Sessions, economic data from January - February, supply pressure and central bank liquidity hedging, and bond market pricing under geopolitical conflicts and risk aversion [61]. - In terms of interest rates, the funding in March may fluctuate around the Two Sessions but will likely return to equilibrium. There is room for loose monetary policy, and historical experience shows that the 10 - year bond yield is more likely to decline after the Two Sessions. The current odds for the 10 - year bond at around 1.78% are not high. It is recommended to gradually reduce duration leverage and stay calm [6][64]. 3.3 March Important Economic Calendar The report lists important economic indicators and their expected values to be announced in March, including PMI, PPI, CPI, and trade data [66].

Group 1 - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) sessions will be held on March 4 and March 5, 2026, respectively, marking a significant political event in China [3][10]. - The sessions will review the government work report and the draft of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines key development goals and tasks for the next five years [5][12]. - Key economic indicators such as GDP growth rate, CPI increase, and fiscal deficit will be discussed, drawing significant attention from external observers [14]. Group 2 - The focus will be on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately high monetary policies to ensure a good start for the 15th Five-Year Plan [16]. - There will be an emphasis on expanding domestic demand, with specific measures to boost consumption and optimize policies for urban renewal [16]. - The sessions will also address increased investments in key areas such as education, healthcare, and housing to enhance the public's sense of well-being and security [17]. Group 3 - Three major legal drafts will be reviewed, including the Ecological Environment Code, which is significant as it will be China's second law named as a "code" following the Civil Code [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; short May and long September for glass [1][8][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98000 - 106000; strengthen observation for aluminum; moderately hold long positions on nickel on dips; range trading for tin; bullish - biased range for gold and silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish - biased range for PVC and caustic soda; short on soda ash on rallies; long on styrene and rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish - biased range for polyolefins [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased range for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; range - bound for red dates [1][37][39][42] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Be cautious about shorting the May contract of live hogs, and take a short - biased approach on rallies; short on near - month egg contracts on rallies if the culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short on soybean meal on rallies; bullish - biased range for oils, with a cautious approach on chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [1][43][45][46][47][49] 2. Core Views - **Market Influences**: Geopolitical events such as the war between the US - Israel and Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significant impacts on the market, increasing risk - aversion sentiment and affecting commodity prices. Policy factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, also play important roles in market trends [5][6][15][21][23] - **Commodity - specific Views**: Each commodity has its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market expectations, which determine their price trends and trading strategies. For example, some commodities are affected by production capacity changes, while others are influenced by seasonal demand or international trade policies [9][10][17][26] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to external market pressure and domestic two - sessions news, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Policy signals are clear, and with geopolitical disturbances, they may be bullish - biased [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak. It is recommended for short - term trading [8][9] - **Rebar**: The price is trading in a range. The valuation is low, but the demand drive is weak. It is necessary to focus on the post - festival demand recovery [10] - **Glass**: The market is weak. There is a plan to short the May contract and long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the market shows a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation and weak demand, long - term demand support exists. It is recommended for short - term range trading with a focus on 98000 - 106000 [14][15] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. Supply expectations are improving, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to strengthen observation [16][17] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia provides support, but demand recovery is slow [18][19] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is recommended for range trading [20] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the central price level is expected to rise. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to be in a range. Supply disturbances exist, and demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and supply disruptions [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The price is in a low - level wide - range. Although the domestic demand is weak, there are short - term export supports. It is recommended for short - term bullish - biased trading within the rising channel [26] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There are support factors such as spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [28] - **Styrene**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Cost support is strong, but there is supply pressure in March. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [31] - **Rubber**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There is cost support, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply and demand are both increasing, but the price may be under pressure in the middle and late March to April [33][34] - **Methanol**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. The war in Iran may cause supply shortages, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [35] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be under pressure [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Post - festival consumption expectations are rising, and external cotton prices are strong [37] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [41] - **Red Dates**: The price is expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price is based on quality [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: The price is in the process of bottom - building. It is necessary to be cautious about shorting the May contract and take a short - biased approach on rallies. Pay attention to secondary fattening, frozen product storage, and policy changes [43][44] - **Eggs**: If the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on near - month contracts on rallies. Pay attention to inventory digestion and demand recovery [45] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [46] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The overall supply - demand is loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to soybean arrivals and auctions [47] - **Oils**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Driven by international crude oil, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [49][54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment while implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to support domestic market growth and risk prevention [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted key areas for economic development, including building a strong domestic market, fostering new growth drivers, deepening reforms, and enhancing social welfare [2][3]. - The State Council's meeting focused on post-holiday work deployment, emphasizing the need to quickly implement government policies and enhance the silver economy and elderly care services [4][5]. Group 2 - The national service consumption and trade conference discussed the shift from goods consumption to service consumption, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and promote high-quality development in the exhibition industry [6][8]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs outlined plans for 2026, focusing on elderly care, social assistance, and the management of social organizations, while emphasizing the establishment of a closed-loop mechanism for effective implementation [9][10]. - A joint notice from four departments aimed to optimize small loan support for rural populations, increasing the loan limit to 100,000 yuan and establishing a risk compensation mechanism to aid rural revitalization [11][12].

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 2 月 27 日全国 230 家独立焦企焦炭库存增加 7.54 万吨至 107.82 万吨，处于 8 个月高位，港口焦炭库存微降 2.16 万吨至 261.7 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存下降 13.5 万吨至 675.11 万吨，综合库存走低 0.77%至 1044.63 万吨， 止步 9 连增。 利润方面，春节假期焦炭价格保持稳定，本周全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈 利持稳于-8 元/吨，且各地区吨焦盈利基本保持不变。 下游需求，春节假期结束，钢厂复工复产情况增加，供应有所回升。本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比增加 0.09%至 80.22%，同比去年增加 1.93%;盈利率环 比上涨 1.3%至 39.83%，同比减少 10.39%;日均铁水产量环比增加 2.79 万吨至 233.28 万吨，创近三个月来最高水平。 消息方面，中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，会议强调，要继续实施更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。全国 两会 3 月 4-5 日在北京召开。中 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a downward adjustment of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales to 0%, effective from March 2, 2026, aimed at promoting foreign exchange market development and supporting enterprises in managing exchange rate risks [4] - The report indicates a stable and slightly easing liquidity in the financial market, with major repo rates continuing to decline, leading to a recovery in the bond market [1][11] - The report notes that the U.S. core PPI rose by 3.6% year-on-year in January, which may complicate future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [6] Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the 14th Five-Year Plan and emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the implementation of the Private Investment Fund Information Disclosure Supervision and Management Measures starting September 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing transparency in private fund operations [5] International News - The U.S. PPI data for January showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, exceeding expectations, which may lead to upward pressure on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index [6] - The report mentions a general decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds across major European economies, indicating a shift in market sentiment [24] Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery on February 27, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.10 basis points to 1.8020% [14] - The report notes significant price deviations in the secondary market for credit bonds, with some experiencing drastic declines [16] - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline in major indices, with a trading volume of 765.99 billion yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment [18] Overseas Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury yields fell across various maturities, with the 10-year yield down to 4.02%, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions [21] - The report highlights a decline in the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies, reflecting a broader trend of easing yields [24]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a stable yet slightly easing liquidity environment, with major repo rates declining and bond markets showing signs of recovery, while convertible bonds are facing downward pressure. Group 1: Domestic News - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to discuss the draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the government work report, emphasizing the need for a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to strengthen domestic market construction and promote high-level technological self-reliance [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0%, effective March 2, 2026, to support enterprises in managing exchange rate risks [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Supervision and Administration Measures for Information Disclosure of Private Investment Funds," effective September 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing transparency and protecting investors' rights [4] Group 2: International News - The U.S. January PPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with core PPI increasing by 3.6%, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation and complicating future monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [5] - International crude oil futures prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.78% to $67.02 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up by 2.45% to $72.48 per barrel [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - On February 27, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 269 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 269 billion yuan for the day [7] - The liquidity environment is stable, with major repo rates continuing to decline; DR001 fell by 2.18 basis points to 1.345%, and DR007 decreased by 0.28 basis points to 1.481% [8] - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 1.10 basis points to 1.8020% [10] Group 4: Credit Bonds - On February 27, five industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地01" dropping over 87% and "H1万科04" increasing over 12% [11] - The credit rating agency Fitch withdrew the "BB+" long-term issuer rating for Weifang Urban Investment Group due to the issuer's cessation of participation in the rating process [12] Group 5: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw major indices decline, with the China Convertible Bond Index down by 0.14% and trading volume reaching 765.99 billion yuan [16] - Notable individual convertible bonds included Aiwei Convertible Bond, which rose over 9%, while Hengshuai Convertible Bond fell over 8% [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The content primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and strategies of the Chinese government, particularly focusing on fiscal and monetary policies. Core Points and Arguments - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to strengthen the coordination between reform measures and macro policies [1] - There is a strong focus on building a robust domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new growth drivers, and promoting high-level technological self-reliance and strength [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of deepening reforms in key areas, further expanding high-level opening-up, and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization, new urbanization, and regional coordinated development [2] - Greater efforts are required to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, accelerate the promotion of comprehensive green transformation, and strengthen risk prevention and safety capacity in key areas [5] - The government is urged to enhance its own construction and firmly establish and practice a correct view of achievements [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on the coordination of reform measures with macro policies indicates a strategic approach to economic stability and growth, which may present investment opportunities in sectors aligned with these government initiatives [1][2] - The focus on green transformation and technological self-reliance suggests potential growth areas in renewable energy and technology sectors, which could be of interest to investors looking for sustainable investment opportunities [5][2]