Core Insights - The Australian labor market is undergoing a significant transition from an unsustainable hiring boom that drove unemployment rates below historical norms to a more balanced trajectory [1] - Employment growth has slowed for the first time in a year, aligning with population growth, indicating a gradual easing of the previously strong labor market [1] - High labor force participation is expanding economic capacity, helping to alleviate unit labor cost pressures and supporting inflation cooling without a sudden downturn in the job market [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia has room to act cautiously by monitoring high-frequency indicators like job advertisements to ensure that the pace of easing does not outstrip productivity and supply-side capacity improvements [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]

Core Insights - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the data release, traders adjusted their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability now at 95% [1] Market Reactions - After the CPI data was released, COMEX gold futures saw a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at $3399.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.39%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.06% [1] Analysis and Outlook - The moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the anticipation of a September rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding data quality and upward pressure on core CPI suggest that investors should remain cautious [1] - Short-term market volatility may increase, but the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, traders raised their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the current probability estimated at 95% [1] - Analysts noted that the moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the expectation for a rate cut in September [1] - There are indications of caution among investors due to data quality issues and upward pressure on core CPI, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may increase, the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slowing consumer inflation in South Korea provides more reasons for the central bank to consider restarting the interest rate cut cycle, especially in light of the economic impact from increased U.S. tariffs on imports [1][4]. Inflation Data - In July, consumer prices in South Korea rose by 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 2.2% in June, aligning with economists' median forecasts [1]. - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy prices, remained stable at 2% in July, unchanged from June [1]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. recently decided to impose a 15% tariff on most South Korean imports, raising concerns as South Korea's annual export value accounts for over 40% of its GDP [4]. - The central bank's policy committee is set to meet on August 28, with some economists predicting a potential 25 basis point rate cut due to the economic pressures from tariffs and the need to balance housing price stability [4]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market in Seoul remains active, but the rate of price increase has slowed, with the price growth for apartments in the week of July 28 dropping to 0.12%, significantly lower than the recent peak of 0.43% in June [4]. - The Bank of Korea is cautious about excessive stimulus that could exacerbate real estate speculation and increase household debt levels [4]. Economic Outlook - Economists express concerns about weak growth prospects, indicating that the central bank has signaled a continued push for rate cuts [5]. - The recent strengthening of the Korean won against the dollar has also created conditions for the authorities to consider easing monetary policy [5].

Core Insights - Japan's private sector activity continues to expand at the beginning of the third quarter, but concerns over tariffs are a significant drag on growth [1] Group 1: Economic Activity - The initial PMI data from S&P Global indicates that while private sector activity is expanding, trade policy uncertainty is dampening optimism among service and manufacturing sectors regarding annual output [1] - Manufacturing output declined again in July, with manufacturers facing a continuous decrease in new orders as clients adopt a wait-and-see approach, contrasting with robust growth in the services sector [1] Group 2: Business Confidence - Business confidence is at its second-lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a slowdown in hiring activities [1] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Inflation - Companies report a continued easing of cost pressures, suggesting that inflation may further cool during the summer months [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced mixed results on July 18, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 142.30 points to close at 44,342.19, a decrease of 0.32% [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.57 points to 6,296.79, reflecting a change of -0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 10.01 points to 20,895.66, an increase of 0.05% [1] - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, six sectors declined while five sectors advanced, with the energy and healthcare sectors leading the declines at 0.96% and 0.60%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that new housing starts in June reached 1.321 million units, exceeding market expectations of 1.3 million and the revised figure of 1.263 million in May [1] - New housing permits also surpassed expectations, totaling 1.397 million in June, higher than the anticipated 1.38 million and the revised 1.394 million in May [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for July was reported at 61.8, above the market expectation of 61.4 and the previous month's figure of 60.7 [2] - The expectation for inflation over the next year decreased from 5% to 4.4%, aligning with market forecasts [2] - Reports indicated that the Trump administration is negotiating to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU imports, with a potential increase to 30% if no trade agreement is reached by August 1 [2] Group 4 - Despite Netflix's second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, the company's stock fell by 5.1% due to forecasts of declining operating margins in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Reaction - The UK June CPI year-on-year growth unexpectedly dropped to the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%, with core CPI falling to 3.9% [1] - All key inflation indicators significantly underperformed expectations, leading to strong market anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on August 1 [1] - Following the inflation data release, the British pound (GBP) experienced a sharp decline against major currencies, with GBP/USD falling below 1.28 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts caution that the current decline in GBP may have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut, suggesting a potential rebound risk [2] - The Bank of England's communication prior to the August meeting could influence GBP, especially if officials temper aggressive rate cut expectations [2] - Stronger-than-expected UK economic activity data could undermine market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Political Factors - GBP/USD has broken below a short-term upward trend line, with key support located in the 1.2750-1.2700 range [3] - The upcoming economic policies of the new government (Labour Party) may impact market confidence [3] - Future movements of GBP will depend on the Bank of England's guidance, key economic data performance, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement an unexpected easing policy, with a forecast of a third 25 basis points rate cut due to easing inflation pressures and slowing economic growth [1][2] - A survey of 37 economists indicates that 31 expect the RBA to lower the official cash rate to 3.60% during the upcoming meeting, while only 6 predict it will remain unchanged [1] - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.6% this year and 2.3% in 2026, which is a downward revision from previous estimates [2] Group 2 - Over 60% of economists surveyed anticipate another 25 basis points cut this quarter, bringing the cash rate down to 3.35% [1] - Inflation has decreased from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% in May, with expectations for an average of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, remaining within the RBA's target range [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 6% this year, driven by a general weakening of the US dollar, with expectations for a further 2% increase in the next six months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The softening of core service prices is beneficial for cooling inflation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that the decline in core service prices contributes positively to the overall inflation reduction [1]