美联储古尔斯比：需要看到通胀降温取得更持久的进展。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rebound, with major indices rising over 1%, driven by strong performance from tech stocks and positive CPI data indicating lower inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices both surged over 1%, with Micron Technology seeing a spike of over 16% following its earnings report that exceeded market expectations [1]. - The Dow Jones also opened higher, gaining 0.67% [3]. - Major tech stocks, including Oracle, TSMC, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Broadcom, all recorded gains exceeding 1% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for November showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the market expectation of 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2021 [3]. - The report indicated that the data collection process was disrupted due to the government shutdown, which may affect the reliability of the CPI figures [4]. - Following the CPI report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, with traders anticipating a reduction of 62 basis points by the end of 2026 [1][3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Economic advisor Kevin Hassett praised the CPI data, suggesting a favorable environment of high growth and low inflation, and emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to enhance transparency [2]. - Analysts noted that the CPI data supports the Fed's accommodative stance, although concerns about data quality due to the government shutdown were raised [4]. - The Fed is expected to focus on the upcoming December CPI data for more accurate inflation indicators before making policy decisions [4]. Group 4: Corporate Developments - Trump Media & Technology Group's stock surged over 38% after announcing a merger with TAE Technologies, a fusion energy startup, which aims to establish one of the first publicly listed fusion energy companies [7]. - The merger will allow Trump Media to transition into a holding company, encompassing its existing social media operations and the new energy venture [7][8].

Core Insights - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.6% year-over-year, down from 3% two months prior, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [1] - The overall CPI for November rose by 2.7% year-over-year, marking the slowest potential inflation growth since early 2021 [1] - The report reflects a complex situation due to the government shutdown, which hindered data collection for October and limited the ability to assess broader inflation indicators [1][2] Inflation Trends - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, primarily influenced by declines in hotel accommodations, entertainment, and clothing costs, while prices for household goods and personal care products rose [1] - Excluding food and energy, commodity prices rose by 1.4% year-over-year, slightly down from 1.5% in August and September [3] - New car prices increased by 0.2%, following a slight increase of 0.1% the previous month, while the growth rate for used car prices has slowed [4] Federal Reserve Considerations - The CPI report's impact on Federal Reserve policymakers remains uncertain, as they continue to have differing views on interest rate direction for the upcoming year [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the CPI data may have been distorted due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection [2] - Powell anticipates that commodity inflation will peak in the first quarter, assuming no new significant tariff measures are introduced [5] Housing and Services Impact - Service prices, excluding energy, rose by 3% year-over-year, with airline tickets and hotel accommodation prices decreasing compared to the previous year [5] - Housing costs, a major driver of inflation, increased by 3% year-over-year, representing the smallest increase in over four years [5] - The CPI relies on extensive field visits to collect prices from thousands of goods, with about 60% of the sample gathered through in-person visits [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates to their lowest level in nearly three years, providing a boost to UK households ahead of Christmas and indicating that inflation has cooled enough to allow for further policy easing in 2026 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5 to 4 to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, marking the first rate cut since August [1][2]. - This decision comes after the committee did not take any action in the previous two meetings [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a decline in economic growth, the labor market, and price pressures, leading to a shift in stance from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey towards supporting market expectations for policy easing [1][2]. - The inflation rate unexpectedly dropped to an eight-month low, prompting the Bank to forecast that inflation will be "closer" to the 2% target by spring next year [1][2]. Future Outlook - The committee indicated that evidence suggests borrowing costs will continue to decrease next year, but future rate cuts will require careful consideration as the Bank approaches neutral interest rates [1][2]. - Governor Bailey stated that while rates are expected to gradually decline, subsequent cuts will face more challenging decisions after each reduction [1][2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the British pound and ten-year UK government bond yields recovered from previous declines, with the two-year bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 3.74% and the ten-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 4.49% [1][2]. - The exchange rate for the pound against the dollar remained stable around 1.3383 [1][2].

周四(12月18日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格小幅回落，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4333.19美元/盎司，下跌 0.09%，最高触及4342.65美元/盎司，最低下探4323.93美元/盎司。由于美元指数超跌反弹，金价小幅走 跌，但中期来看，黄金依然处于多头运行区间之内，基本面上最新公布的美国就业数据进一步强化了市 场对美联储未来降息的预期同时地缘政治风险再度升温，支撑金价。 地缘方面，若普京拒绝和平协议，美国将进一步制裁俄罗斯能源行业。据知情人士透露，若普京总统拒 绝与乌克兰达成和平协议，美国正准备对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一轮制裁，以加大对莫斯科的压力。 这些匿名透露私下商议情况的人士表示，美国正在考虑多种制裁方案，包括针对俄罗斯所谓"影子舰 队"中用于运输其石油的油轮，以及为相关交易提供便利的贸易商。部分人士称，新制裁措施最早可能 于本周公布。 美联储理事Christopher Waller支持进一步降息，让利率回到中性水平，同时也表示决策者无需操之过 急。Waller周三表示，在通胀持续放缓至2026年的情景下，当前货币政策利率水平较中性利率高出多达 100个基点。中性利率指美联储既不会抑制增长也不会推高通胀的 ...

今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于66.17一线上方，今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报66.41美元/盎司，上涨0.35%，最高触及66.50美元/盎司，最低下探65.54美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 目前市场聚焦数据与地缘风险，如果CPI和PCE数据确认通胀降温，降息预期将进一步升温；若委内瑞 拉局势升级成冲突，避险需求将爆炸式增长。但需警惕美元反弹和美联储内部分歧带来的下行风险。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 异同移动均线(MACD)随着直方图的扩大转为正值，表明上行压力增强。然而，看涨趋势依然强劲，白 银在短期内有相当大的机会获得额外的上行动力。 上行通道的顶部66.80美元区域可能会对多头构成挑战。该水平上方的下一个目标位是10-11月反弹的 261.8%斐波那契延伸位68.30美元，之后是70.00美元水平。 下行方面，近期支撑位位于之前的历史高位64.72美元，随后是接近63.30美元的趋势线支撑位，以及12 月12日低点约60.80美元。 【要闻速递】 尽管美元周三上涨，但今年迄今已下跌约9.5%，创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅。这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern around 1.3366, with market focus on the Bank of England's interest rate decision and upcoming US inflation data, leading to cautious trading behavior [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 3.2% year-on-year, a significant drop from October's 3.6%, marking an eight-month low and exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The decline in inflation is attributed to falling food prices, lower tobacco prices, and discounts on women's clothing, indicating a comprehensive easing of inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England have reached 90%, potentially lowering the benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% [2] - The Monetary Policy Committee shows a split with 5 votes in favor and 4 against the rate cut, with Governor Andrew Bailey's stance being crucial [2] - Future rate cuts may be limited by the neutral interest rate range of approximately 3.5% to 3.75% [2] Group 3: External Influences - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut to a range of 3.5%-3.75% has provided some support for the GBP, despite a split in the decision-making process [2] - The uncertainty surrounding UK fiscal policy has diminished, with a reported fiscal buffer of approximately £22 billion, leading to a reduction in short positions on the GBP [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD remains above the 100-day moving average (1.3300), with a stable upward trend and increasing volatility indicated by the expanding Bollinger Bands [3] - Strong support is identified in the 1.3300-1.3328 range, while resistance levels are noted at 1.3380 and 1.3400 [3] - A dovish signal from the Bank of England could lead to a drop towards the 1.3250 support level, while a less than expected rate cut or weak US inflation data could allow the GBP to break resistance and extend upward [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices testing resistance levels around 4350 and 4380, while silver has reached a historical high of 66.88 [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently under pressure but are expected to test the resistance levels of 4350 and 4380 in the short term [1][4]. - A potential stabilization at 4350 could lead to further upward movement towards 4380, indicating a bullish sentiment [1]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the delayed U.S. November CPI, which could influence inflation expectations and interest rate forecasts [1]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver has surpassed the 66 mark, achieving a new historical high of 66.88, indicating strong bullish momentum [1]. - The current support level for silver is around 4320, with potential buying opportunities if prices do not break below this level [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The market is cautious about the potential impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, which could lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - A confirmation of cooling inflation from CPI and PCE data could further elevate expectations for interest rate cuts [1]. - The upcoming speeches from key figures, such as Trump, and the Bank of Japan's decisions are also critical events to watch in the near term [1].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is supporting gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, despite persistent inflation indicated by the September PCE price index exceeding the Fed's annual target [2]. - Fed officials believe that slowing hiring, moderate economic growth, and restrained wage increases will likely lead to a cooling of inflation in the coming months, supporting further easing policies [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is currently trading around $4205 per ounce, maintaining support at the $4200 level, with cautious optimism from bulls until the Fed's future rate cut path is clarified [1]. - The recent strong JOLTS job openings data did not alter the market's dovish expectations for the Fed, allowing gold to benefit as a non-yielding asset [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated that there will be no land concessions or painful compromises to end the war, which further supports demand for safe-haven metals like gold [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a familiar range, with a rebound from support levels indicating potential bullish momentum [5]. - A cautious approach is advised, suggesting to wait for gold to consistently hold above the resistance area of $4245-$4250 before taking long positions, with potential targets at $4277-$4300 [5]. - Conversely, if gold falls below the $4200 level, it may test support around $4170-$4165, and a clear break below this could lead to further declines towards $4115 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market experienced a collective rise, with the storage chip sector showing strength and Chinese concept stocks significantly increasing in value. The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where a high probability of interest rate cuts is anticipated [1][2][20]. Market Performance - On December 5, all three major US stock indices closed higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.19% to 6,870.40 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [4][5]. - Weekly performance showed all three indices ending previous adjustments with gains: Nasdaq up 0.91%, Dow up 0.5%, and S&P 500 up 0.31% [5]. Sector Performance - The storage chip sector saw significant gains, with SanDisk up 7.12%, Seagate Technology up 5%, Micron Technology up 4.63%, Western Digital up over 4%, Broadcom up 2.39%, and Intel up 2.2% [7]. - The technology sector displayed mixed results, with the US Tech Giants Index rising by 0.2%. Notable individual stock performances included Facebook (up nearly 2%), Google (up over 1%), and Microsoft (up 0.46%), while Apple and Nvidia saw declines of 0.68% and 0.58%, respectively [5][6]. Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks were a highlight of the market, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.29%. Key individual stock performances included Dingdong Maicai (up over 11%), Huya (up over 6%), Baidu (up 5.85%), and ZTO Express (up over 3%) [9][10]. Economic Indicators - The US core PCE inflation rate unexpectedly cooled, with the monthly rate at 0.2% and the annual rate at 2.8%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than expected. This development is seen as potentially paving the way for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12][13]. - Market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve remain high, with a probability of 87.2% for a 25 basis point cut, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 12.8% [15][21]. Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on December 9-10 is anticipated to be a critical event for market direction, with the decision expected to be announced on December 11 at 3:00 AM Beijing time [20][21].