Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 2, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The SCFIS index declined again this week, indicating that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December fell short of expectations. Maersk's aggressive pricing may suppress the price - increase space of other airlines, and there is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index declined again this week, showing that the price increase in late November was not fully implemented, and the price increase by shipping companies in the first half of December was less than expected. For example, Maersk's opening quotes for large containers at the beginning of December were lower than the previous expected over $3000. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices. Due to the late Spring Festival, the market may have incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak. It is difficult to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From November 24 to 28, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. On November 28, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 0.7% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, but there was a split between the service and manufacturing sectors. Transport demand was stable, and spot market booking prices rebounded after continuous declines. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1404/TEU, up 2.7% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was in sync with European routes, and market freight rates stopped falling and rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2232/TEU, up 8.6% from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: The number of initial unemployment claims in the US decreased, but the number of continued unemployment claims was rising, indicating a dim labor market. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates showed differentiated trends. The freight rate on the US - West route continued to decline slightly, while that on the US - East route rebounded. On November 28, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to US - West and US - East basic ports were $1632/FEU and $2428/FEU respectively, with a - 0.8% and 1.8% change from the previous period [10]. - **Red Sea - Suez Canal**: Maersk's statement about resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "refuted" later [10]. - **Middle - East Situation**: There were continuous military conflicts and diplomatic interactions in the Middle - East, which may have an impact on the shipping market [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS Index**: On December 1, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1483.65, down 155.72 points (- 9.5%) from November 24. The SCFIS for US - West routes (basic ports) was 948.77, down 159.08 points (- 14.4%) from November 24 [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Contract Data**: The trading data of different contracts on December 1, 2025, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Various shipping - related data charts were presented, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, and shipping freight rate trends [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profit and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see as the freight rate has no obvious fluctuations [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The current core is the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - After the rapid recovery of the market, attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and the spot freight rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 28th, compared with November 24th: The NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77%; the SCFIS (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5%; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% [1]. - On November 28th: The SCFI announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points; the CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71%; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1%; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79%; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% [1]. Economic Data of Different Regions - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was -9.2, forecast value was -8.5 [2]. - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - US October S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Main Contract Data - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position long in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. If the market drops sharply, do not add positions and do not hold on to losing positions. Set a stop - loss [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, and then wait for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Rules Adjustments - The daily limit and daily floor for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Western Land - Sea New Corridor - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of containerized goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. This year alone, the volume has exceeded 1.3 million TEUs, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：1 2月运价落地不佳，E C弱势震荡 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 现货运价 利空 12月上旬MSK报价2200、HPL报价2150；OOCL报价2400、CMA报价2650；ONE报价2200； 政治经济 利空 【1】马士基、赫伯罗特表示，目前没有具体时间调整"Gemini"双子星东西向航线。鉴于加沙停火进展，我们密切关注该地区事态发展。目前，我们没有 具体时间表将"Gemini"双子星东西向航线改为经由红海航行。【2】CMA CGM 达飞对全面重返红海航线一事拒绝置评，但实际上从船期表上看达飞自营 船回程可以说90%全面复航，不过关于达飞自营船复航这个因素已基本PRICE IN。更重要的西向头程复航目前没有增加。【3】苏伊士运河管理局主席 Osama Rabie 接受采访表示，苏伊士运河预计将在 2026 年底实现船舶通行量全面恢复、收入正常化。【4】中美竞争正出现一个新的战场 —— 这一战场 正在影响第三国的贸易协议。彭博社报道称，北京方面已经向马来西亚和柬埔寨表达了对其近期与华盛顿达成协议的关切，并警告应尊 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profits and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly, but the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [1]. - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Main Contract Information - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of container goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. Among them, the number of TEUs sent this year has exceeded 1.3 million, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of ultra-large vessels in 2025 and 2026 is relatively small, but it will be greater in 2027 and 2028. In 2026, it is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. For 17,000+ TEU ships, it is expected to deliver 240,000 TEU (10 ships) in 2026, 838,000 TEU (39 ships) in 2027, 1.603 million TEU (79 ships) in 2028, and 1.215 million TEU (60 ships) in 2029 [10]. - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. In normal years, from week 1 to about week 15, the freight rate is in a seasonal downward phase; from week 15 to about week 34, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase; from week 34 to about week 42, it is in a seasonal oscillating downward phase; from week 42 to week 53, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase. The seasonal pattern of freight rates has a strong fit with the monthly container trade volume trend in the Far East - Europe region, indicating that this variety is priced at the margin of the demand side under the condition of a certain supply [11]. - In 2026, two uncertain factors may disrupt the shipping market. First, whether the China - EU trade game will affect China - EU trade. Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly, and as of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures. Second, pay attention to the possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise, putting pressure on freight rates [12]. Summary by Directory 2025 Shipping Market Operation Review 1.1 Spot Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, among the 13 routes statistics by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 11 routes saw price declines, with the annual declines of the Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - West America, Shanghai - East America, and Shanghai - Europe routes exceeding 50%. Three routes saw price increases, with the Shanghai - Persian Gulf route having the largest increase, exceeding 19% [17]. - As of November 24, the SCFIS European route has dropped 53.4% to 1,639.37 points since the beginning of the year, and the SCFIS West America route has dropped 56.74% to 1,107.85 points [20][21]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, major container shipping companies continued to try to support the price of the Far East - Northern Europe route. For example, MSC issued price increase letters several times from September to November [26]. 1.2 Futures Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts was 72,203 lots, and the total trading volume was 34,443 lots. The total trading volume since the beginning of 2025 was 17.193 million lots, and the total funds in all contracts were about 1.814 billion yuan [31][32]. Container Shipping Market Supply Chain Tracking 2.1 Container Ship Diversion: The Suez Canal May Resume Operation in 2026 - Since November 19, 2023, the Houthi armed organization has attacked and intercepted merchant ships in the Red Sea, causing the spill - over of the Palestine - Israel conflict. Subsequently, many international shipping giants such as Maersk announced the suspension of the Red Sea route. The current situation of container ship diversion continues, with the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and reaching the Gulf of Aden remaining at a low level. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal on November 21 was only 4.21 (7 - day average), and the daily passing capacity was about 13,000 TEU. The number of container ships reaching the Gulf of Aden (7 - day average) was about 8.86, and the daily passing capacity was about 20,100 TEU. Due to the diversion of container ships, the number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly, with the 7 - day average passing number being about 19.43, compared with the previous daily passing center of about 6 - 7 [39]. - Recently, Egypt has actively promoted liner companies to resume using the Suez Canal. Egyptian officials have held meetings with major shipping companies to discuss the return of global shipping to the Suez Canal route [40]. 2.2 Global Supply Chain: Supply Chain Efficiency Continues to Recover - In October, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 42.56% (an increase of 10.09% compared with the beginning of the year), approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rate of the Asia - Europe route in October was 35.24% (an increase of 11.61% compared with the beginning of the year), the punctuality rate of the Asia - West America route was 54.61% (an increase of 28.22% compared with the beginning of the year), and the punctuality rate of the Asia - East America route was 35.18% (an increase of 11.73% compared with the beginning of the year) [52]. - The overall port congestion pressure is relatively small. As of November 21, 2025, the congested capacity of global container ships was 10.39 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the total container capacity. The congested capacity of ports in the East America was 0.71 million TEU, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the congested capacity of ports in the West America was 0.55 million TEU, at a relatively neutral position [62]. Container Shipping Market Supply Side 3.1 Global Supply: Annual Container Ship Deliveries Remain at a High Level - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of outstanding orders for container ships was 1,109, with a total capacity of 10.458 million TEU, a new high since statistics began [80]. - From January to October 2025, shipping companies signed 467 new shipbuilding contracts, with a total capacity of 3.636 million TEU [83]. - In 2024, 478 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.91 million TEU. From January to October 2025, 222 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.822 million TEU [85][87]. - From January to October 2025, 11 container ships were dismantled, with a total capacity of 6,000 TEU. The average age of container ships in service has increased from 10 years in 2010 to about 13.82 years, and the average age of dismantled container ships has increased from 18.78 years in 2016 to 30.33 years in 2024 [89]. - Considering container ship orders, deliveries, and dismantling, the year - on - year growth rate of container ship capacity was about 10.08% in 2024, 6.8% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027. As of the end of October 2025, the number of existing container ships was 6,995, with a total capacity of 32.526 million TEU, and the year - on - year growth rate of capacity was 7.3% [98]. 3.2 Ultra - large Ship Supply: The Supply Pressure of Ships over 12,000+ TEU is High in 2027 and 2028 - As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships with a capacity of 1.918 million TEU have been delivered, including 1.072 million TEU (71 ships) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships and 254,000 TEU (12 ships) of 17,000+ TEU ships [104][105]. - It is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships in 2026, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. Overall, the supply pressure of ultra - large ships is relatively small in 2025 and 2026, but greater in 2027 and 2028 [110][111]. Container Shipping Market Demand Side 4.1 Overseas Economy: The Downward Risk of the European Economy has been Eliminated - In October 2025, the European economy showed signs of mild recovery and structural differentiation. The service industry performed strongly, the manufacturing industry stabilized, consumption and trade improved, and inflation was generally under control. However, investment confidence remained weak, construction growth slowed, and fiscal pressure increased. The overall economy still faces certain challenges, and the stability of the continuous recovery of internal and external demand needs to be monitored [117]. 4.2: European Imports Perform Well, while China's Exports to the United States Face Setbacks - From January to September 2025, the total container trade volume between the Far East and Europe was 14.81 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to Europe totaled 461.1 billion US dollars, a 7.61% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. - From January to September 2025, the container trade volume between the Far East and the United States was 15.48 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to the United States were 352.3 billion US dollars, a 17.72% decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. Uncertainty Factors 5.1 China - EU Trade Game - Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly. As of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures, including anti - dumping, public procurement restrictions, and technical trade barriers, covering a wide range of product areas from traditional manufacturing to high - value - added industries [126]. - In the anti - dumping field, the EU has maintained a high - frequency rhythm of initiating investigations and making rulings, with increasingly severe measures. In the public procurement field, the EU activated the International Procurement Instrument (IPI) in June, targeting the medical device industry. In the technical trade barrier field, the EU's New Battery Regulation came into effect in August, posing challenges to Chinese battery exporters [126][127]. 5.2 Suez Canal Resumption Possibility - The cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip in October 2025 provided the possibility for the resumption of the Suez Canal. However, the progress of the cease - fire agreement has encountered great resistance, and the situation remains fragile [131]. - After the cease - fire agreement in October 2025, the Suez Canal Authority took a series of measures to resume canal traffic, including holding meetings with shipping companies, implementing flexible pricing and discounts, and improving operational and service capabilities [132]. - Major shipping companies have different attitudes towards the resumption of the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd are still cautious, while CMA CGM is more active. Hapag - Lloyd has prepared a "Red Sea resumption contingency plan" and anticipates that the key window period will occur after the Spring Festival [134]. Strategy Outlook 6.1 Obvious Seasonal Pattern of Container Shipping Prices - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. The reasons for the seasonal pattern are related to domestic holidays, industrial production cycles, and Western holidays [145][146]. 6.2 Gradual Recovery of Capacity Supply, with the Weekly Average Capacity Reaching a New High in the Same Period - Since November 19, 2023, due to the Houthi armed attacks in the Red Sea, many shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, and ships on the Asia - Europe route had to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage and reducing the number of voyages a ship can perform per year. With the delivery of new ships, the short - term capacity shortage caused by the non - operation of the Suez Canal is gradually being made up. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months between China and Europe exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise [149][150]. 6.3 Freight Rates (Small Containers) between 2017 - 2019 Ranged from 600 - 1200 US Dollars - After the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping in August 2016 and the development of shipbuilding technology, the container shipping industry, especially the Asia - Europe route, entered a new stable state in 2017. If the Suez Canal resumes operation, the supply of the container shipping industry will increase significantly, and the industry may return to a stage with narrower volatility and limited freight rate highs [152]. 6.4 Future Contract Market Outlook: The Container Shipping Market May Return to "Normal", with Narrower Fluctuations and High Freight Rates under Pressure - December contract: The freight rate in December is being continuously adjusted. The delivery and settlement price of the December contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The freight rate center in the first half of December has been revised down to around 2,100 - 2,200 US dollars/FEU. Attention should be paid to whether there will be another price increase in the second half of December [158]. - 2602 contract: There may be a large expected difference in the February contract. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, which basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - support period of shipping companies is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may have the same valuation as the December contract [159]. - More distant contracts: If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the effective capacity supply will increase, putting pressure on freight rates. The valuation of more distant contracts may be revised down. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate ranged from 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to the SCFIS ranging from about 600 - 1400 points [162].

2025年11月28日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 悲观情绪略有消化,盘面偏弱震荡,建议观望为主,运价并无明显波动。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 11月24日 | 11月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1639.37点, 较上期上涨20.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 946.44点, 较上期下跌5.33% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1107.85点, 较上期下跌10.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 951.65点,较上期下跌2.83% | | 11月21日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 955.93点, 较上期下跌9.17% | | | 11月21日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1393.56点,较上期下跌57.82点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数) 1122.79点,较上期上涨2.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1367USD/TEU, 较上期下跌3.53% | 中国出口 ...

Group 1: Report on Futures Market Data - EC2512 futures price was 1612.9, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1493 and an open interest of 5232, a decrease of 302 [2][11] - EC2602 futures price was 1387.7, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 24978 and an open interest of 42968, a decrease of 1089 [2][11] - EC2604 futures price was 1054.6, down 1.64%, with a trading volume of 5766 and an open interest of 18701, an increase of 703 [2][11] - The difference between EC2512 - 2504 was 558.3, compared to 550.2 the previous day and 523.6 two days ago [2][11] - The SCFIS (European Line) index on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37 dollars/TEU, up 20.75% from the previous period [2][11] - The CCFI on November 21, 2025, was 1432.96, up 2.09% from the previous period [2][11] - The NCFI on November 21, 2025, was 951.65, down 2.83% from the previous period [2][11] Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - On Wednesday, the market dropped significantly due to near - term price cuts and resumption of shipping expectations [3][12] - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, following the spot price, with P1 around 1550 - 1600 points [3][12] - P2 and P3 correspond to the second half of December cabin space, expecting a stable - to - rising trend [3][12] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued, and the key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume overflow [3][12] - There is no overly pessimistic expectation because this year's Chinese New Year is late, pre - holiday shipments have not fully started, and there is no cargo overflow [3][12] - December price cuts are beneficial for January price increases, and freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Chinese New Year [3][12] - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3][12] Group 3: Recent Spot Market Conditions in European Lines - In Week 49, the offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances were between 2300 - 2500 dollars, and OA was between 2300 - 2600 dollars, with an average of about 2400 dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4][13] - In Week 50, Maersk opened cabins at 2200 dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200 dollars, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500 dollars [4][13] - On Thursday, YML cut prices to 1900 dollars, ONE to 2200 dollars, and the central price might be between 2200 - 2300 dollars (1550 - 1600 points) [4][13]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The spot SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37, better than expected, but shipping companies' December price hikes were less than expected. Maersk's quotes are aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and there is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre - Chinese New Year shipping rush, and short - selling has low cost - effectiveness. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the April contract being overvalued due to the influence, and the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Spot market: This week, the SCFIS index rose 20.7% week - on - week to 1639.37, better than expected, but shipping companies' December price hikes were less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and there is a possibility of other airlines following Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Consider the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From November 17 to 21, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index of the long - haul route market declining. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on November 21 was 1393.56 points, down 4.0% from the previous period. European route: The eurozone's November consumer confidence index was - 14.2, lower than expected, and the spot market booking price declined. Mediterranean route: The supply - demand fundamentals were slightly better than the European route, and the market freight rate rose slightly. North American route: Due to the US government shutdown, the September non - farm report was postponed. Although the number of new jobs was better than expected, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the market freight rate continued to decline. There were also developments in the Israel - Hamas conflict and Iran's military actions [9][10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.3.1集运现货价格 (Container Shipping Spot Prices) - SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on November 24 was 1639.37, up 20.7% from November 17; SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1107.85, down 10.5% from November 17 [12] 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 (Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes) - Provided trading data for multiple contracts of container shipping European line futures on November 26, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 (Shipping - Related Data Charts) - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]

12逐步走向交割逻辑, 跟随现货, P1大约在1600点左右，P2和P3对标12月下半月，观察船司宣涨与落地情况 ગઢ | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 台钓 | | 昨日收卷公 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | FC2512 | | 1650.0 | -7.29% | -10.6 | 6884 | | 6454 | -403 | | | EC2602 | | 1453.5 | -7.34% | 185.9 | 51412 | | 48279 | 4946 | | | EC2604 | | 1126.4 | -1.37% | 513.0 | 5004 | | 17016 | 920 | | | EC2606 | | 1338.0 | -1.49% | 301.4 | 272 | | 1629 | 95 | | | EC2608 | | 1464.0 | -1.62% | 175. ...