Group 1: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a closing price of 1896.9 with a 0.71% increase, a volume of 28512, and an open interest of 35947 with a decrease of 388 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1363.9 with a 0.29% decrease, a volume of 8414, and an open interest of 31361 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1538.7 with a 0.70% increase, a volume of 1250, and an open interest of 8 with a decrease of 173 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1338.7 with a 1.02% increase, a volume of 228, and an open interest of 3781 with a decrease of 31 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1172.9 with a 0.11% decrease, a volume of 708, and an open interest of 5782 with an increase of 100 [2] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1319.9 with a 0.76% increase, and an open interest of 371 with an increase of 19 [2] Group 2: Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 month spread was 533.0, with a week - on - week increase of 53.9 [2] - EC2510 - 2512 month spread was - 174.8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.7 [2] - EC2512 - 2602 month spread was 200.0, with a week - on - week increase of 22.2 [2] Group 3: Shipping Freight Indexes - SCHIS updated on Mondays, with a value of 2123.24 on 2025/6/30, a 9.61% increase from the previous period and a 14.11% increase from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 2030 USD/TEU on 2025/6/27, a 10.63% increase from the previous period and a 0.49% decrease from two periods ago [2] - CCFI (European Line) updated on Fridays, with a value of 1640.72 on 2025/6/27, a 3.94% increase from the previous period and a 6.03% increase from two periods ago [2] - NCFI updated on Fridays, with a value of 1442.95 on 2025/6/27, a 11.03% increase from the previous period and a 0.64% decrease from two periods ago [2] - TCI updated daily, with a value of 957.21 on 2025/6/30, a 2.14% increase from the previous period and no change from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 (tentatively) is 299,000 and 305,000 TEU respectively. The first week of July had good cargo receipts but no congestion. The second and fourth weeks had neutral capacity, while the third week had high capacity, which may suppress freight rates. There was one new sailing cancellation in week 33, and PA&MSC had ship delays [2] Group 5: European Line Quotations - Some shipping companies announced price increases in July. MSK opened at 3400 USD, and others were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD. In the first half of July, some shipping companies cut prices. MSK dropped to 3100 and 2900 USD in the first and second weeks respectively, and the final average price was 3400 USD (equivalent to 2400 points on the disk). In the third week of July, MSK opened at 2900 USD [3] - HPL kept its August quotation at 3640 USD, while CMA announced an increase to 4745 USD [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies; for the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3. Summary by Content Market News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement may impose a 20% tariff on re - export trade, and all short positions have been recommended to stop losses [2]. - As the July 9 deadline for EU - US trade negotiations approaches, EU member states' negotiation stance towards the US has hardened, demanding the US to cancel or significantly reduce tariffs [5]. - Egypt's foreign minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with relevant parties [6]. Freight Indexes - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% [2]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% [2]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on June 27 showed that the European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on June 27: the composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9%; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2 [2]. - The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in the Eurozone in June was 0.2 [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May [2]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [2]. Market Conditions - On July 2, the main contract 2508 closed at 1883.5, up 1.67%, with a trading volume of 44,200 lots and an open interest of 36,300 lots, a decrease of 4141 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious turn in the fundamentals, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. For the 2508 contract, short positions can be considered for profit - taking when it rebounds above 2000. Risk - takers can try going long on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction to determine the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4].

SCFIS(欧线)指数季节性趋势 12000 100000 30 00 405 6000 40 00 2000 0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 =2023 2021 = 2022 = -2024 · 202'5 EC远期曲线 EC期货合约价格走势 3500 3000 2500 20000 1500 1000 1200 500 1000 2508 2510 2542 2602 2604 理念价格 2506 20 25/5/14 2025 /5/20 20 25/7/1 月间升贴水 EC2508/2510 EC2506/2508 120% 110% 100% 90% 30% 70% Und Brid 2024 (终后后) erage(正第年份) 2024 (终行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 90% 30% 70% 60% 24 133 3 EC 2506/25 10 2510/25 12 nge(正常年份) 2024 (终行后) rage(正常年份) = 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报 ...

黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2508 | 1,904.9 | 7.80% | 68,840 | 40,476 | 1,248 | 1.70 | | 0.83 | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,383.8 | 3.28% | 21,666 | 31,506 | 1,385 | 0.69 | | 0.33 | | | EC2512 | 1,538.0 | 2.67% | 3,471 | 6,186 | 359 | 0.56 | | 0.28 | | | | | 本期 | | 2025/6/30 | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 2, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping and related markets is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][2] - With no significant change in overall supply - demand, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1] 3.2 Market and Contract Information - On June 30, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1761.4, with a decline of 1.92%, a trading volume of 32,700 lots, and an open interest of 39,200 lots, an increase of 168 lots from the previous day [2] - The SCFIS has been rising continuously, but the overall supply - demand has not changed significantly, and the market is bearish with wide - range fluctuations [2] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. Risk - takers can consider lightly trying long positions on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] 3.4 Other Information - Trump said he would not extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions after July 9. Once the negotiation deadline expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [4] - The Israeli Defense Forces informed the domestic political leadership that they tend to reach an agreement with Hamas rather than occupy the Gaza Strip [4]

| | 示句女朋员 YONGAN FUT | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集运早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/27 | | | | | જ્હે | | 昨日收盘价 | 3 (%) | 是美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持合变动 | | 0.03 1.13 | EC2506 EC2508 | | 1885.9 1759 9 | | 51.2 177.2 | 783 38516 | 2275 41485 | | -216 -2043 | | 2.54 | EC2510 | | 1325.6 | | 611.5 | 14964 | 30795 | | -751 | | 3.72 | EC2512 | | 1489 1 | | 448.0 | 4647 | 6930 | | -387 | | 3.27 | EC2602 | | 1317.4 | | 619.7 | 1696 | 3887 | | ...

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1885.3 with a change of -0.15, a trading volume of 1178, an open interest change of -285, and a percentage change of 51.8 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1740.2 with a change of 196.9, a trading volume of 50789, an open interest change of -1263, and a percentage change of -1.79 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1292.8 with a change of -0.90, a trading volume of 644.3, an open interest change of 31546, and a percentage change of -75 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1435.7 with a change of -1.50, a trading volume of 3222, an open interest change of 300, and a percentage change of 501.4 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1275.7 with a change of -2.36, a trading volume of 661.4, and an open interest change of 3916 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 2276 with a change of 449, a trading volume of 1132.0, an open interest change of 2550, and a percentage change of -1.65 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread Information - The spread between EC2506 - 2508 was 145.1, with previous spreads of 29.0 and 275.8, and a weekly opening of 116.1 [2] - The spread between EC2508 - 2510 was -20.0, with previous spreads of -168.7 and 447.4, and a weekly opening of 467.4 [2] - The spread between EC2506 - 2510 was 592.5, with previous spreads of 583.5 and 513.0 [2] - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was -142.9, with previous spreads of -152.9 and 10.0 [2] - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 160.0, with previous spreads of 150.9 and 158.0 [2] Group 3: Shipping Index Information - SCEIS was 1937.14 with a previous value of 1697.63, a percentage change of 14.11%, and was updated on 2025/6/23 [2] - SCFI was 1835 $/TEU with a previous value of 1844, a percentage change of -10.62%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - CCFI was 1578.6 with previous values of 1488.87 and 1397.02, percentage changes of 6.03% and 6.57%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - NCFI was 1299.58 with a previous value of 1307.92, a percentage change of -0.64%, and was updated on 2025/6/20 [2] - TCI was 937.12 with a previous value of 962.14, a percentage change of -1.40%, and was updated on 2025/6/25 [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - In July and August 2025, the average weekly capacity was 29.3 and 30.4 million TEU respectively. The OA Alliance's FAL7 route added a new service in week 28. The supply pressure was neutral in the first week of July, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotation - For July, MSK initially opened at 3400 USD, then dropped to 3100 USD. Other carriers were mostly between 3500 - 4000 USD and then around 3500 USD. The average in the first week was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] - In the second week, MSK opened at 2900 USD, and the average among carriers was 3400 USD, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures. On 6/25, HPL lowered its rate from 3400 to 3200 USD [3] Group 6: News - On 6/26, the US Defense Intelligence Agency stated that its assessment of the Iranian nuclear facilities being attacked by the US military was preliminary and of low credibility. It was collaborating with other agencies to investigate the leak of the assessment [3] - On 6/26, Trump said that the US would talk with Iran next week. He believed the war between Iran and Israel was over, but would not lift sanctions on Iran. He also thought the conflict might break out again [3] - The UK Central Intelligence Agency claimed that several key Iranian nuclear facilities had been destroyed [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Contracts continue to decline, in line with the daily report's expectations. Given the high difficulty of trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the trading difficulty is high, and the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise without more positive news. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period. [2] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period. [2] - On June 25, the main contract 2508 closed at 1740.2, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 50,800 lots and an open interest of 43,500 lots, a decrease of 1263 lots from the previous day. [3] Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in May was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5). [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. [2] - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6). [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. It has been suggested to short lightly when the 2508 contract rebounds above 2000. Hold existing short positions and stop - loss long positions, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. [4] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when contracts rally and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction. [4] - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2506 - 2604 are adjusted to 16%. [4] - Margin: The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. [4] - Daily opening limit: The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots. [4] Geopolitical News - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Mohammad Eslami said on the 24th that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program after military strikes by Israel and the US. [5] - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced on the 24th that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel has ended, and he called on all agencies to focus on reconstruction. [5]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2506 | 1,889.3 | 1,881.1 | 1,885.3 ...

Group 1: EC Futures Contract Information - EC2506 had a closing price of 1883.0 with a -0.42% change, a base of 54.1, a trading volume of 635, an open interest of 3361, and an open interest change of -172 [2] - EC2508 had a closing price of 1875.0 with a -0.79% change, a base of 62.1, a trading volume of 70521, an open interest of 47053, and an open interest change of 1085 [2] - EC2510 had a closing price of 1370.0 with a 0.74% change, a base of 567.1, a trading volume of 15474, an open interest of 31514, and an open interest change of 17/29 [2] - EC2512 had a closing price of 1530.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 407.0, a trading volume of 2667, an open interest of 6656, and an open interest change of 460 [2] - EC2602 had a closing price of 1372.1 with a -0.64% change, a base of 565.0, and an open interest of 2939 with an open interest change of -39 [2] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1209.8 with a 0.72% change, a base of 727.3, a trading volume of 797, an open interest of 4156, and an open interest change of 169 [2] Group 2: Month - to - Month Spread - The EC2506 - 2508 spread was 8.0, compared to 1.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -130.7 and a weekly change of 144.2 [2] - The EC2508 - 2510 spread was 505.0, compared to 530.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 616.1 and a weekly change of -116.9 [2] - The EC2506 - 2510 spread was 513.0, compared to 531.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 485.4 and a weekly change of 27.3 [2] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was -160.1, compared to -180.0 the previous day, with a daily change of -184.4 and a weekly change of 34.8 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 158.0, compared to 159.0 the previous day, with a daily change of 152.5 and a weekly change of -21.5 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Indicators - The SCHIS spot index on 2025/6/23 was 1937.14, up 14.11% from the previous period and 4.61% from two periods ago [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was $1835/TEU, down -0.49% from the previous period and up 10.62% from two periods ago [2] - The CCFI (European Line) on 2025/6/20 was 1578.6 points, up 6.03% from the previous period and 6.57% from two periods ago [2] - The NCFI on 2025/6/20 was 1299.58 points, down -0.64% from the previous period and up 16.40% from two periods ago [2] - The TCI on 2025/6/20 was 930.54 points, with no change from the previous period and up 6.97% from two periods ago [2] Group 4: Capacity Arrangement - The average weekly capacity in July and August 2025 was 293,000 and 304,000 TEU respectively [2] - The OA Alliance's FAL7 route week28 added a blank sailing this week [2] - Supply pressure in the first week of July was neutral, low in the third week, and high in the second and fourth weeks [2] Group 5: Recent European Line Quotations - Shipping companies announced price increases for July. MSK opened at $3400, and others were mostly between $3500 - $4000 [3] - Some shipping companies later lowered prices. MSK dropped to $3100, others were around $3500, with an average of $3400, equivalent to 2400 points on the futures [3] Group 6: News - On June 24, Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire. Iran would start first, and Israel would follow after 12 hours [4] - White House senior officials said Israel agreed to the cease - fire on the condition that Iran would not launch further attacks, and Iran signaled it would not attack [4] - An advisor to the Iranian Parliament Speaker called Trump's cease - fire statement a provocation [4]