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大规模解禁潮将至!“高处不胜寒”的老铺黄金股价能否承受冲击?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 11:25
老铺黄金自2024年6月在港交所上市以来,每股股价从发行价40.5港元一路飙升至800港元附近,涨幅20倍左右,远超同期国际金价30%的涨幅。这一优异表 现,主要得益于美联储步入降息周期为黄金行业带来的发展机遇,以及老铺黄金自身突出的核心竞争力推动其业绩爆发式增长。数据显示,2024财年公司净 利润同比增幅高达253.9%;同时其估值也颇具优势,PE值一度低至17.9。 值得注意的是,2025年6月28日老铺黄金将迎来上市后最大规模的限售股解禁潮,解禁后市场流通股份将大幅增加,叠加解禁股东的潜在减持行为,可能加 剧市场抛压,引发股价短期波动。在这一关键节点,市场情绪变化与技术面走势值得密切关注。从长期来看,需重点关注解禁股东后续的减持计划等行为, 同时结合公司基本面变化,综合评估其发展的长期韧性。 截至2025年4月29日收盘,老铺黄金(6181.HK)股价收于760港元,涨幅6.59%,市值高达1280亿港元,是港股市值最高的黄金珠宝龙头企业。 老铺黄金的核心竞争力 老铺黄金在品牌定位与产品差异化策略上独树一帜,其以"古法工艺"作为核心竞争要素,深度挖掘中国传统文化内涵,将产品与"吉庆""传承"等具有深厚文 ...
金价“过山车”背后的认知重构:黄金还是“避风港”吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 12:20
4月23日,周大福、周六福等品牌金价从1082元/克下调至1055元/克,周生生更是降至1048元/克。这场从每盎司3500美元历史高位跌至3260美元附近的"闪 崩",正在黄金产业链上掀起一场前所未有的连锁反应。 合肥的李女士正面临一个尴尬的抉择——她和男友已谈婚论嫁,"买金的钱已经给我了,但金价疯涨,买吧我舍不得,不买又不好看。"这种"买涨不买 跌"的心理在终端市场极具代表性。数据显示,4月周大福等品牌足金饰品报价最高达到每克1082元左右,较年初一度上涨35%,而短短数日就出现27元的 单日跌幅。 零售商被迫打响价格"闪电战"的背后,是库存压力与利润空间的残酷博弈。部分前几天刚买金的顾客甚至要求退货,但黄金饰品一经售出通常不支持无理 由退换。这种"价格锚点失灵"现象对婚庆等刚需场景形成直接冲击,有新人干脆选择"买道具替代真金",将钱款折现存入银行卡。 "早上刚上班就接到调价通知,足金饰品每克降了27元。" ——北京西单某周大福门店的销售顾问李婷面对突如其来的金价跳水显得措手不及。 黄金产业链正在用金融工具构筑防线。期货套保、定金杠杆等手段成为商家应对价格波动的标配,但这也将风险转嫁给缺乏经验的投资者。世 ...
过山车行情!国际金价跌破3300美元,多头逢高获利了结,未来怎么走?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-04-28 11:51
华夏时报(www.chinatimes.net.cn)记者 叶青 北京报道 近期国际金价经历一轮过山车走势,4月22日COMEX黄金期货价格创出3509.9美元/盎司新高后,4月23日大幅走 低,一度回落跌至3300美元/盎司以下,较前日历史峰值下跌200美元,此后3个交易日一直围绕着3300美元波动。 4月28日,金价再度出现回调,盘中一度跌破3300美元整数关口,市场情绪明显趋于谨慎。截至发稿,金价暂时报 收于3294美元/盎司。 "进入4月以来,国际金价加速上涨,市场多头积累了大量获利盘。当价格触及高位时,部分投资者选择获利了 结,导致市场出现抛售潮,从而引发金价短期大幅下跌。上周金价从3500美元/盎司下跌至3300美元/盎司,这种 快速回调是市场调整的正常表现。"西安交大客座教授景川接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 黄金多空博弈加剧 值得关注的是,金价在上周创下历史高点后进一步下跌。有业内人士表示,正是由于金价涨势过快,一些交易员 选择纷纷平仓。对此,巴克莱银行发布研报称,上周SPDR黄金股票ETF的交易量突破创纪录的130万份合约,这 种期权仓位的变化可能预示着短期内市场过热。 对此,景川表示,过 ...
黄金短期波动放大,持续看好中长期走势 | 投研报告
Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The short-term volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, while the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [2][6] - As of April 25, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.33% to $3,330.2 per ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF fell by 0.6% to 946.27 tons [2][6] - Market expectations are being adjusted due to the fluctuating policies of Trump, which is likely to continue impacting gold prices [2][6] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of April 25, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.7% to 77,440 yuan per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 181,700 tons, a decrease of 51,700 tons [3] - The market sentiment is recovering marginally, but remains relatively low due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The demand for copper is expected to improve as domestic policies are implemented, with a tightening supply trend anticipated [3][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of April 25, the SHFE aluminum futures contract increased by 1.7% to 20,030 yuan per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 658,000 tons, down by 31,000 tons [4][5] - The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [5] - The aluminum price is expected to rise in the second quarter due to improved demand expectations from both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, with specific recommendations for Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Shares [6]
黄金赌徒
投资界· 2025-04-16 07:32
棱镜 . 以下文章来源于棱镜 ,作者肖望 腾讯新闻出品栏目,《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 "避风港"为何失灵? 作者 | 肖望 编辑 | 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜 (ID:lengjing_qqfinance) 9 90元/克!这是4月11日一早金饰品牌周大福公布的首饰金价,创下历史新高。两天时间 内大涨近60元/克,连见多了世面的周大福店员也不由得连连感叹:太疯狂了。 首饰金价破千仅一步之遥,另一边周六福品牌的999 .9足金饰品价已抢先一步,挂牌1 010 元/克。 金饰价格创历史新高,背后是国际金价的深"V"型反转:4月3日至4月7日,国际金价连续 三个交易日暴跌,区间跌幅达到7.08%;但从4月8日至4月11日,金价又快速反弹,并创 下历史新高3263美元/盎司。上海黄金交易所报价也从4月7日开盘的7 03元/克拉涨至762 元/克,5天上涨近60元/克,涨幅约8. 40%。 这样的波动幅度,在黄金市场中并不常见。而高盛、瑞银等国际投行还进一步上调了对黄 金的价格预期。 投资者对黄金的押注热情高涨,甚至有投资者贷款炒金,试图抓住黄金的"历史机遇",短 短五天里就经历了巨亏到大赚的两极反转。 黄金大跌源于 ...
直线拉升!现货黄金再创新高
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-04-16 04:45
Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,270 per ounce and SHFE gold at 774.66 yuan per gram [2][3] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market has seen significant gains, with a 5-day cumulative increase of 18.67% [5][6] - Various gold brands have adjusted their prices differently in response to rising gold prices, with some maintaining their prices while others have increased them [6][7] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a hawkish signal from Fed Chairman Powell leading to a sell-off in gold futures [8] - The negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has been highlighted, with recent declines in yields contributing to gold's price increase [8] - Factors such as global economic uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions are expected to support continued upward momentum in gold prices [9]
戴康:黄金破3000之际!
戴康的策略世界· 2025-03-15 07:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, driven by increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid growing concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and potential disruptive trade policies from the Trump administration [1][3]. - The pricing framework of gold is outlined, highlighting its financial attributes, safe-haven characteristics, and monetary properties, which are significantly influenced by factors such as the 10Y U.S. Treasury real interest rates and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit [1]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the company has consistently suggested opportunities for gold allocation, noting that gold prices have reached new highs [1]. Group 2 - The article discusses the long-term outlook for gold, suggesting that ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, reinforcing the belief in gold as a sovereign credit alternative [3]. - The demand for gold from central banks is mentioned as a supportive factor for gold prices in the medium to long term, alongside the potential erosion of U.S. dollar credit due to debt issues [3].