Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations have led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant implications for gold prices and related ETFs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.25% to $3435 per ounce, with gold-related ETFs also experiencing gains [1]. - As of August 5, the year-to-date increase in gold prices reached 39.33%, with notable rises in stocks such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Shandong Gold [1]. - The gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.66%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rose by 1.24% [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 73,000 jobs were added in July, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][4]. - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly below market expectations, leading to volatility in U.S. financial markets [1][4]. Group 3: Institutional Sentiment - Citigroup, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, reflecting a shift in institutional sentiment towards gold [2]. - The gold stock ETF tracks a diverse range of companies in the gold mining and sales sectors, with the top ten constituents accounting for 66.02% of the index weight [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the weak employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a rationale for potential interest rate cuts, which could further support gold prices [3][4]. - The anticipated dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' statements and the potential for a rate cut could lead to a new upward trend in gold prices amid concerns over inflation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in Citigroup's outlook on gold, moving from a bearish to a bullish stance, with a revised price forecast for gold reaching $3,500 per ounce in the next three months, up from a previous forecast of $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Citigroup's Revised Gold Outlook - Citigroup has adjusted its gold price expectations, raising the forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, and the trading range from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 per ounce [1]. - The bank's previous bearish outlook from June, which anticipated gold prices dropping below $3,000, has been overturned due to factors such as weak U.S. labor data and geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][4]. Group 2: Demand and Market Dynamics - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over 33%, contributing to a near doubling of gold prices in the second quarter of this year [3]. - Strong investment demand, ongoing purchases by central banks, and resilient jewelry demand are identified as key drivers of the rising gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent U.S. economic data, including a significant revision of non-farm payrolls, has led to volatile gold price movements, with prices surging past $3,400 per ounce amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]. - The market is reacting to perceived economic weaknesses and adjusting expectations for future monetary policy, with analysts suggesting that the focus will shift to U.S. fiscal expansion and potential rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Activity and Investor Behavior - Global gold demand in the second quarter reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [9]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in the second quarter, although at a slower pace, indicating sustained high levels of gold accumulation amid economic uncertainties [9].

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The world is evolving towards a diversified structure, with the potential for the RMB to be less pressured if the USD enters a long-term weakening phase [4] - The dominance of the USD is seen as a product of historical circumstances, and its status is being challenged by geopolitical events and changing global dynamics [4][5] - The RMB's exchange rate mechanism should be more flexible and less influenced by external factors, allowing for adjustments based on domestic conditions [5] Group 2: Investment Trends in China - There is a long-term trend of increasing global asset allocation towards Chinese assets, driven by policy shifts that support economic growth and private enterprise [6][7] - The current high proportion of US assets in global allocations does not align with the emerging multipolar world, but international capital is beginning to adjust [7] - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a balanced policy approach, which could stabilize market expectations and support long-term development [8] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting did not explicitly mention interest rate cuts, focusing instead on maintaining liquidity and managing local government debt [9] - The real estate market remains under pressure, and without strong policy intervention, downward pressure may increase [8][9] Group 4: Trade and Tariff Implications - The impact of US tariffs is diminishing, with recent agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU potentially leading to reduced trade costs and lower market uncertainty [15] - The evolving tariff agreements may serve as a model for other countries, suggesting a trend towards more flexible trade negotiations [15] Group 5: Investment in Gold - Caution is advised regarding excessive investment in gold as a safe-haven asset, as current valuations are high and could lead to risks [12][13] - Geopolitical tensions may support gold prices, but potential ceasefires could create downward pressure [13]

平安证券表示，美联储降息预期升温，金价预计偏强运行。截至8.1，COMEX金主力合约环比上涨 2.32%至3416美元/盎司。SPDR黄金ETF环比减少0.4%为953.08吨。美国7月季调后非农就业人口增7.3万 人，预期增11万人，前值从增14.7万人修正为增1.4万人。7月失业率为4.2%，预期4.2%，前值4.1%。美 国7月就业数据表现差于预期，市场对美联储降息预期边际升温。短期来看，降息预期或为金价锚定的 核心驱动，预期抬升有望推动黄金偏强运行。中长期看，海外宏观不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍处于 放大阶段，金价中枢预计仍将持续抬升。 黄金股票ETF（代码：517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（代码：931238），该指数由中证指数有限 公司编制，从内地与香港市场中选取50只市值较大、业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼及销售的上市公司证券作 为指数样本，以反映黄金产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分股涵盖黄金矿企和珠宝公司等 细分领域，具有显著的行业集中特征。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C（021674），国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A（02167 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, which is likely to support gold prices in the near term [1] - As of August 1, the COMEX gold futures contract increased by 2.32% to $3,416 per ounce, while the SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.4% decrease to 953.08 tons [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, which was below the expected increase of 110,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the gold industry, covering sectors such as mining and jewelry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiating Linkage C (021674) and A (021673) [1]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 平安证券表示，美联储降息预期升温，金价预计偏强运行。截至8.1，COMEX金主力合约环比上涨 2.32%至3416美元/盎司。SPDR黄金ETF环比减少0.4%为953.08吨。美国7月季调后非农就业人口增7.3万 人，预期增11万人，前值从增14.7万人修正为增1.4万人。7月失业率为4.2%，预期4.2%，前值4.1%。美 国7月就业数据表现差于预期，市场对美联储降息预期边际升温。短期来看，降息预期或为金价锚定的 核心驱动，预期抬升有望推动黄金偏强运行。中长期看，海外宏观不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍处于 放大阶段，金价中枢预计仍将持续抬升。 黄金股票ETF（代码：517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（代码：931238），该指数由中证指数有限 公司编制，从市场中选取50只市值较大 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the intense political atmosphere in Washington, with President Trump urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly to alleviate the federal government's financial burden [1] - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell raises concerns about the Fed's independence, with investors anxious about potential impacts on monetary policy and market stability [1][9] - The sudden drop in gold prices, reaching a low of $3310 per ounce, reflects the volatility in the market and the unexpected shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - Short-term investors are increasingly anxious due to market fluctuations, with experts warning about risks related to Federal Reserve policies, global trade tensions, and capital arbitrage activities [5] - The interplay of technical trading and market sentiment is causing heightened volatility, making it difficult for ordinary investors to navigate the market [9] - The article suggests that the ongoing standoff between the Federal Reserve and Trump will continue to create uncertainty in the gold market, with potential for price reversals [9]

全球黄金需求在价格屡创新高的背景下持续强劲增长。 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元人民币，创下有史以来最强劲的季度表现。这一表现主要由全球 贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治动荡以及金价上涨推动，投资者大举涌入这一避险资产。 全球黄金ETF需求连续第二个季度大幅增长，成为推动整体需求的重要因素。金条和金币投资者也加入 其中，被上涨的价格和黄金的避险属性所吸引。 全球央行在第二季放缓购金步伐，购买量创2022年以来的最低水平。尽管如此，世界黄金协会认为，地 缘政治和经济的不确定性，会促使央行继续购金。 世界黄金协会高级市场策略师John Reade表示："要真正看空黄金，你必须认为主要地缘政治领导人会 突然变得理智和合作。但世界对我来说似乎过于两极分化了。" 央行购金步伐放缓但仍处高位 世界黄金协会周四发布的季度报告显示，二季度全球黄金总需求同比增长3%至1249吨，价值跃升45% 至创纪录的1320亿美元。 中国市场引领ETF流入潮 二季度中国市场黄金ETF流入464亿元(合65亿美元，61吨)，与金条和金币需求类似，中国市场黄金ETF 流入主要集中在4月份。上半年中国市场黄金ETF总流入达631亿元(合88亿 ...

Core Insights - Global gold demand is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant value increase of 45% to reach $132 billion, setting a historical record [1] - Total gold supply in Q2 2025 is estimated to grow by 3% year-on-year, with gold mine production potentially reaching 909 tons, marking a historical high [1] Supply and Demand Summary - **Gold Supply**: - Q2 2025 gold mine production is estimated at 909 tons, up from 896.2 tons in Q2 2024 [2] - Total gold supply for Q2 2025 is projected at 1,248.8 tons, compared to 1,210 tons in Q2 2024 [2] - **Gold Demand**: - Jewelry consumption in Q2 2025 is expected to be 341 tons, down from 395.6 tons in Q2 2024 [2] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins is projected at 306.8 tons, a decrease from 275.2 tons in Q2 2024 [2] - Central banks globally added 166 tons to their gold reserves in Q2 2025, despite a slowdown in purchasing pace [5] Market Dynamics - Strong demand for gold ETFs has been a key driver of overall demand growth in Q2 2025, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and rising gold prices [4] - The spot gold price has risen over 26% this year, reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April, with current prices around $3,307.49 per ounce [5]

Core Insights - Global gold demand is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant value increase of 45% to reach $132 billion, setting a historical record [2] - Total gold supply in Q2 2025 is estimated to grow by 3% year-on-year, with gold mine production potentially reaching 909 tons, marking a historical high [2] Supply and Demand Overview - Gold supply in Q2 2025 is estimated at 901.5 tons, with gold mine production at 908.6 tons and recycled gold at 347.2 tons [3] - Gold demand in Q2 2025 is projected at 1,079 tons, with jewelry consumption at 341 tons and investment demand at 477.2 tons [3] Investment Trends - Strong demand for global gold ETFs has been a key driver of overall demand growth in Q2, despite a slowdown in central bank purchases [4] - The demand for gold bars and coins has also seen a significant increase, reaching the highest levels since 2013 in the first half of 2025 [4] Jewelry Market Dynamics - Jewelry demand has shown a divergence, with tonnage declining in most regions, reflecting a drop to levels reminiscent of the 2020 pandemic period, although the monetary value of jewelry consumption has generally increased [5] Gold Price Movements - Spot gold prices have risen over 26% this year, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce in April, with current prices around $3,307.49 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [6]