Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - In August 2025, new loans increased significantly less year - on - year, and credit demand remained weak. The mortgage prepayment pressure may rise, and credit demand may be weak in the long - term. In September, banks may boost loan balance data through ultra - short - term loans, and new loans in October may be very low [2] - In recent years, individuals have deleveraged while enterprises have increased leverage, leading to rising corporate debt pressure. Personal consumption is sluggish, and corporate profitability is worrying [2] - In August, the M2 growth rate was flat month - on - month, and the M1 growth rate rebounded month - on - month. It is expected that the M1 growth rate will decline in the fourth quarter [2] - The social financing growth rate may have reached a stage peak. It is expected that new loans will increase less year - on - year in 2025, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, reaching about 8.1% at the end of the year [2] - The 10 - year government bond may have allocation value for bank self - operations. It is expected that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Credit Data - On September 12, 2025, the central bank disclosed that in August, new loans were 59 billion yuan, and social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 reached 332.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year; the social financing growth rate was 8.8% [1] - In August, new loans increased 31 billion yuan less year - on - year. Personal loans increased 3.03 billion yuan, including 1.05 billion yuan in short - term personal loans and 2 billion yuan in medium - and long - term personal loans, a significant year - on - year decrease. Corporate short - term loans increased 7 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased 47 billion yuan, and bill financing increased 5.31 billion yuan [2] Leverage and Financial Situation - As of the end of August 2025, the ratio of personal loans to deposit balances was only 52.7%, a decrease of 17.6 percentage points compared with the end of May 2022. Since 2021, the difference between personal deposits and loans has increased significantly, while that of corporate has decreased significantly [2] Monetary Supply - The central bank has used the new M1 caliber since January 2025. As of the end of August 2025, the new M1 balance was 111.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 76.9 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The M2 growth rate in August was 8.8%, flat month - on - month [2] Social Financing - In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 trillion yuan. The decrease mainly came from credit and government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of August was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the end of the previous month [2] - It is predicted that in 2025, social financing will be 34.6909 trillion yuan, with new loans of 16.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 76.95 billion yuan year - on - year; government bond net financing of 13.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 247.46 billion yuan year - on - year [22]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month (previous value 0.4%) and decreased year-on-year to -0.4%, compared to a five-year average of 0.3% for the same period[2] - Food prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.2%) but decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month and increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth[4] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI turned flat month-on-month (previous value -0.2%), ending an eight-month downward trend, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.9% (previous value -3.6%) for the first time since March[20] - Production demand improvements supported price increases in some energy and raw material sectors, with the PMI production index rising to 50.8% (previous value 50.5%) in August[21] - The prices of coal processing rose by 9.7% month-on-month, while black metal smelting prices increased by 1.9%[21] Group 3: Food Price Trends - Pork prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.9%), significantly lower than the five-year average increase of 4.1%[7] - Egg prices rose by 1.5% month-on-month (previous value -0.3%), below the seasonal average increase of 5.9% over the past five years[7] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 8.5% month-on-month (previous value 1.3%), while fresh fruit prices decreased by 2.8%[7] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Outlook - Consumer confidence remains weak, with limited recovery potential for core CPI, as internal consumption dynamics are sluggish[26] - The agricultural sector is expected to stabilize pork prices, but supply pressures remain significant due to ongoing production adjustments[26] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence[33]

宏观动态报告 CPI 低位承压, PPI 低点已过 8 月物价数据解读 2025 年 9 月 10 日 提振消费政策叠加低价竞争治理效果渐显,交通工具价格连续两个月持 ● 平:7月下旬第三批补贴资金已经下发各地,部分地区的以旧换新逐步重启, 补贴方式也更加多元化,带动需求持续回暖,支撑交通工具环比在连续五个月 下行后连续两个月价格持平。8月中旬,两部委发布《关于加强智能网联新能 源汽车产品召回、生产一致性监督管理与规范宣传的通知(征求意见稿)》, 就新能源汽车商业宣传、事件事故报告等方面征求意见,综合整治反内卷政策 举措向更广泛无序竞争领域推进,汽车行业低价无序竞争效果渐显。其它项 中,通信工具价格本月由涨转跌至-0.1%,服装和中药价格环比分别下降 0.1% 和 0.3%;医疗服务和家用器具价格环比分别上涨 0.5%和 1.1%。 核心价格同比持续回升:8月份核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.9%,涨幅比上月扩大 ● 0.1 个百分点。其中，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别上涨 36.7%和 29.8%, 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - Next week, most fundamental data is expected to be weak, but the M1 growth rate may continue to rise, and the market is relatively insensitive to fundamental data. The bond market in Q3 has seasonal patterns, with adjustment pressure increasing in the middle and late months. The decline in constraints on domestic incremental policies after the Fed's rate cut and the potential for an anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach to the bond market next week, continue to focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 1st to September 7th, treasury bond futures oscillated. On Monday, the bond market strengthened; on Tuesday, both stocks and bonds declined; on Wednesday, the bond market first rose and then the gains narrowed; on Thursday, the bond market rose due to the stock market decline; on Friday, the bond market fell sharply. As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.388, 105.580, 107.920, and 116.300 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, + 0.065, + 0.100, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [9] 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be weak next week. Fundamental data is concentrated, but the market is insensitive to it. The M1 growth rate may rise, and the risk appetite may increase. The approaching tax period will lead to marginal tightening of the capital side. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and the potential anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2][11][12] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 39 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5629.61 billion yuan and a net financing of 3170.39 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [18] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of September 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y spread widened. The implied tax rate increased [22] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Position - As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and positions of each contract decreased compared to last weekend [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The basis of treasury bond futures generally oscillated narrowly, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [39] 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of September 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts changed compared to last weekend [43] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates all decreased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the overnight proportion was slightly higher than last week [48][51][53] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated narrowly, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond decreased. As of September 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 97.7357, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond was 4.10%, down 13BP from last weekend. The 8 - month non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [59] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 5th, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy and chemical index decreased, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed differently compared to last weekend [62] 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [63]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for August 2025 include 850 billion yuan in new loans, 2.6 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 331.4 trillion yuan with a YoY increase of 8.6%, new - caliber M1 YoY growth of 5.9%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - Predicts that new loans in August may be low due to weak credit demand, with expected individual loans of +18 billion, corporate loans of +70 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans of - 5 billion. Also anticipates short - term individual loans of +10 billion, long - term individual loans of +8 billion, short - term corporate loans of - 20 billion, long - term corporate loans of +40 billion, and bill financing of +50 billion [3] - Expects the new - caliber M1 growth rate to rebound and the M2 growth rate to slightly decline in August. Forecasts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.9% (up month - on - month) and the old - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.4% (up month - on - month), and the M2 growth rate at 8.6% (down slightly month - on - month) [3] - Suggests that the social financing growth rate may start to fall. Predicts a social financing increment of 2.6 trillion yuan in August (less than the 3.03 trillion yuan in August 2024), with the social financing growth rate at 8.8% at the end of August, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Expects new loans (social financing caliber) to be slightly less year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate to rise first and then fall, reaching around 8.1% at the end of the year [3] - Recommends going long on the bond market in September, based on expectations of central bank easing, potential economic downturn in the second half of the year, and banks increasing bond allocation due to weak credit demand and falling liability costs. Suggests focusing on 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Due to weak credit demand, new loans in the beginning of the quarter are usually low. The low 1 - month term transfer discount rate at the end of August reflects average credit issuance. Forecasts 850 billion yuan in new loans in August, close to the same period last year, with individual loans of +18 billion, corporate loans of +70 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans of - 5 billion [3] M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has used a new - caliber M1. Forecasts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.9% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.4% at the end of August, both up month - on - month. Expects the M2 growth rate at 8.6% at the end of August, down slightly month - on - month [3] Social Financing - Predicts a social financing increment of 2.6 trillion yuan in August 2025, less than the 3.03 trillion yuan in August 2024. The decrease mainly comes from credit and government bond net financing. Expects 88 billion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, +3 billion yuan in undiscounted bank acceptance bills, 15 billion yuan in corporate bond net financing, and 135 billion yuan in government bond net financing in August. Forecasts the social financing growth rate at 8.8% at the end of August, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and anticipates it to reach around 8.1% at the end of the year [3] Bond Market - Recommends going long on the bond market in September, based on central bank easing, potential economic downturn in the second half of the year, and banks increasing bond allocation due to weak credit demand and falling liability costs. Suggests focusing on 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent continuous rebound in M1 growth is primarily driven by significant increases in both corporate and household demand deposits, indicating a shift in asset allocation in a low interest rate environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: M1 Growth Analysis - In July, M1 year-on-year growth reached 5.6%, continuing the upward trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2]. - The rebound in M1 growth is largely attributed to a sharp increase in corporate and household demand deposits, with corporate demand deposits recovering significantly since June [3]. - The rapid issuance of government bonds, exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan, has contributed to the recovery of corporate demand deposits as these funds are held in the accounts of repayment entities [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The decline in interest rates and the low base effect from last year are key factors driving the current M1 growth, differing from previous cycles that were more influenced by the real estate sector [4]. - The cancellation of manual interest subsidies last year has created a low base effect that will persist until October this year, after which M1 growth will depend more on improvements in the economic fundamentals [4]. - The current policy support is expected to stabilize confidence and improve corporate cash flow, but its effectiveness in stimulating real investment and consumption remains to be seen [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the Chinese banking sector, particularly focusing on the shift of funds from fixed deposits to demand deposits and investments in the stock market. Core Insights and Arguments - **M1 Growth and Economic Indicators**: M1 growth has risen to 5.6% in July, indicating improved monetary liquidity and suggesting a potential bottoming out of economic demand and inflation, typically leading by about six months [2] - **Deposit Migration Drivers**: The migration of deposits is driven by several factors including a recovery in the stock market, changes in long-term economic expectations, and a resurgence in the financial assets of high-net-worth individuals [10] - **Excess Savings**: Approximately 5 trillion yuan of excess savings accumulated between 2022 and 2024 is a significant source for potential market entry, supported by a liquidity-rich environment and government leverage [5][20] - **Stock Market Activity**: Since August, A-share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity, although the number of new accounts opened is still below last year's peak [6] - **Shift in Loan Composition**: The proportion of loans for mechanical manufacturing and green finance has increased from 40% to 70%, while real estate loans have dropped to 0%, reflecting a shift in financial resource allocation [3][7] Additional Important Content - **Impact of Fixed Deposits**: A significant amount of fixed deposits, particularly those maturing in 2025, is expected to be reallocated, with about 70 trillion yuan in total fixed deposits maturing, including 7 trillion yuan in three-year fixed deposits [14][13] - **Financial Disintermediation**: The phenomenon of financial disintermediation has led to a significant outflow of deposits towards non-bank financial products, with an estimated drag on physical deposits of about 12 trillion yuan, which has since reduced to 8 trillion yuan [8] - **Contribution to Deposit Creation**: The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation has increased from 25% in 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit has decreased from 73% to 41% [9] - **Potential Market Entry Funds**: The potential funds available for market entry are estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external environments [11][21] - **Liquidity and Investment Trends**: The trend of residents and enterprises activating their deposits is expected to enhance market liquidity and stimulate investment activities, with a projected increase in M1 growth to around 10% [17][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of deposit migration, market conditions, and potential investment opportunities within the Chinese financial landscape.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite, leading to a steepening adjustment in yields. This is primarily influenced by the performance of risk assets such as equities and commodities, which have shown a trend of upward movement [3][8][16] - The report highlights four specific scenarios that contribute to the current dominance of risk appetite in the bond market: 1) A trend in risk assets like equities and commodities; 2) A lack of clear direction from policy statements; 3) Interest rates being at historical lows, reducing attractiveness; 4) External market influences affecting sentiment [3][16][21] - The report suggests that if the influence of these factors diminishes, the market will eventually revert to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity conditions. Key indicators to watch include the operational space of monetary policy in the second half of the year and whether social financing (社融) shows signs of a turning point [3][16] Group 2 - The report notes that while there is an increasing expectation of "absence of total easing" in the short term, the core tone of monetary policy remains one of "moderate easing" and "maintaining ample liquidity," indicating that policy space has not been closed off [5][20] - It emphasizes that the urgency for total easing in the third quarter has decreased, with a shift in focus towards structural policies and stabilizing prices. However, the possibility of total policy re-engagement in the fourth quarter remains, especially if the fundamentals come under pressure [5][20] - The report also points out that the current market's expectations for monetary easing are relatively low, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant market adjustment similar to earlier in the year is reduced [5][20][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that the short-term market is influenced by insufficient release of risk appetite and institutional sentiment, leading to weaker performance. However, it cautions against overemphasizing concerns about an upward turning point in interest rates [6][33] - It highlights that the growth rate of social financing is likely to peak in the fourth quarter, and price increases may be a result of financing expansion rather than a sign of a new cycle [6][33] - The report concludes that while the market's expectations for monetary easing are low, the actual probability of easing remains significant, suggesting that interest rates may form a mid-term top after the current pullback [6][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - In July, the social financing scale showed a seasonal decline after the cross - quarter period, with an increment of 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant drop from the previous month. The net financing of government bonds was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year, strongly supporting the social financing. Credit financing shrank significantly, with a decrease of 426.3 billion yuan in the month and an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not enough to make up for the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - In July, M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high, mainly due to the low - base effect, improvement of enterprise cash flow, and the conversion of deposits to investments. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Although the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - The new RMB loans were unexpectedly - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. On August 13, the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy for personal consumption loans was released to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 7 - Month Social Financing Seasonal Decline - Social financing scale: In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 38.93 billion yuan year - on - year but a significant decline from the previous month. It mainly relied on the net financing of government bonds (1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 55.9 billion yuan year - on - year). Credit financing decreased by 426.3 billion yuan in the month, an additional decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year - on - year. Off - balance - sheet non - standard financing decreased by 166.6 billion yuan, and direct financing was not sufficient to fill the traditional financing gap [1][7]. - M1 and M2: M1 growth continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, 1.0 percentage point faster than the previous month, reaching a 29 - month high. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, with a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 3.2% (previous value 3.7%), but the (M2 - M1)/M1 indicator was still at a high level [1][12]. - New RMB loans: The new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, an additional decrease of 31 billion yuan year - on - year, the first single - month negative growth since August 2005. The enterprise - side financing structure deteriorated slightly, and the household - side long - and short - term loans both shrank. The government released a policy to relieve the pressure on the household side [2][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "relocated" deposits remain as deposits and do not reduce the allocation power in the bond market. Even if residents' deposits move to the stock market, they still exist in the form of margin deposits, so the overall bank deposits do not decrease, and the asset - side allocation power will not decline [1]. - Credit showed negative growth and relied on bills, indicating weak financing demand. Both corporate and household credit demand was weak in July, with high - frequency data showing a weakening in real - estate sales [2][9]. - Government bonds are still the main support for social financing. However, if there is no new fiscal budget, government bond supply may decrease year - on - year in the future, and social financing may face pressure again [3][4][14]. - The base effect pushed up the M1 growth rate, and non - bank deposits drove the M2 growth rate to rebound. As the government bond issuance pace slows down, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing market liquidity [5][20]. - The bond market may experience short - term or periodic fluctuations and is waiting for a breakthrough. As the commodity and stock markets cool down, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and interest rates may break through downward as the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, more likely around or in the fourth quarter [6][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Credit Situation - In July, new credit was - 500 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. Corporate long - term loans decreased year - on - year, short - term loans were flat compared with the previous year, and bill financing increased year - on - year. Household new long - term and short - term loans both decreased year - on - year, and high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales and household credit demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - In July, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.0%. Government bonds were the main support, with an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year - on - year to 1.244 trillion yuan. Non - government bond social financing growth was weak, and if there is no new budget, government bond supply may decrease year - on - year in the future, putting pressure on social financing growth [3][4][14]. Monetary Supply Situation - In July, the M1 growth rate rebounded from 4.6% to 5.6% mainly due to the base effect, and there was no trend - like increase in the two - year compound growth rate. The M2 growth rate was 8.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, mainly driven by the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits. As the government bond issuance pace slows down, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing market liquidity [5][17][20]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market may experience short - term or periodic fluctuations. As the commodity and stock markets cool down, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term. As the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, interest rates may break through downward, more likely around or in the fourth quarter [6][23].