Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - Overnight, the US announced that the June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, in line with expectations, but the annual and monthly rates of core CPI were slightly lower than expected. After the data release, precious metals declined. The market believes the data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait - and - see stance. With room for negotiation on US tariff policies before the deadline, risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the US PPI data tonight [1] Industry - related Summaries Tariff - US Treasury Secretary signaled that there's no need to worry about the deadline for suspending additional tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation "is in good shape" [2] - EU Commission Vice - President will talk with the US Trade Representative [2] - Trump reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier - free treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, tariffs will be combined with those of the country of origin [2] - US Commerce Secretary said the US doesn't levy tariffs on raw steel but only on finished steel [2] - Indian central bank governor is hopeful for a good trade agreement [2] Inflation - The US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; the monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, falling short of the expected 3% but up slightly from last month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3% [2] - Interest rate futures show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is very small, but the possibility of a 25 - basis - point cut in September is high [2] - The "Fed whisperer" said the CPI report won't change the Fed's policy direction [2] - Trump said consumer prices are low and the Fed should immediately cut the federal funds rate by 3 percentage points [2] - Fed's Collins expects the core inflation rate to remain at about 3% by the end of the year, and the Fed should be actively patient [2]

Group 1 - Silver prices rebounded on July 16, reaching a high of $38.04 per ounce, driven by heightened market concerns over U.S. President Trump's escalating tariff policies and increased risk aversion [1] - The U.S. June CPI data showed a 0.3% month-on-month increase, the largest in five months, with core CPI rising to 2.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about tariffs pushing inflation higher and potentially extending the Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PPI data, which will serve as a leading indicator for inflation trends and directly impact the future movement of gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing an upward trend, with the day's highest price at $38.04, and the market is looking at resistance levels between $39.22 and $39.32, while support levels are between $36.52 and $36.62 [3]

近期贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡，黄金网特约分析专家董镇元分析道，"昨日黄金市场早盘小幅高开在3344.1的位置后行情先回补缺口给出3341.1的 位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了3366.4的位置后行情冲高回落，美盘时段受到基本面美国CPI影响黄金强势回落，日线最低给到了3320的 位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了3324.8的位置后日线以一根上影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情延续空，点位上， 昨日3363的空减仓后止损跟进在3355持有，今日3340空保守3342空止损3346.下方目标看3328和3320，跌破看3313和3308-3302。" 据智通财经 7 月 15 日报道，美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，创 2 月以来新高，核心 CPI 同比涨幅达 2.9%。受此影响，7 月 16 日国内黄金 9995 价 格下跌 0.42% 至 774.92 元 / 克，国际黄金期货微涨 0.01% 至 3337.1 美元 / 盎司，伦敦银现同步下跌 0.05%。这种 "通胀回升 + 金银承压" 的市场 格局，正考验着投资者的风险应对能力。 这种复杂的市场环境下，传统投资策略面临严峻 ...

7月16日周三，黄金市场延续了周二的疲软态势，现货金回落至每盎司3327美元附近，较前一交易日下 跌0.5%，期金也录得0.7%的跌幅。表面上看，美国6月CPI数据符合市场预期，并未带来显著超预期的 通胀惊喜，按理说应对金价构成支撑。然而，黄金走势的转弱，背后隐藏着更复杂的逻辑组合，尤其与 市场对关税政策、美联储路径以及避险需求之间微妙关系的重构密切相关。 尽管CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比仍维持在2.7%的水平，通胀并未"失控"，但这已经是近半年以来最强的一 次月度增长，市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧开始升温。同时，特朗普最新在社交平台上发文，再次强调希 望美联储降息，称"消费者物价很低，应该降息"，这无疑向市场施加了一种政策预期的暗示。然而，目 前的物价路径并不完全支持这种激进降息的诉求，因此市场定价并未明确转向。 市场对于特朗普可能进一步加征关税的预期正在升温。他提出对来自欧盟和墨西哥的商品征收高达30% 的关税，给投资者传递出一个矛盾信号：一方面关税可能推动输入型通胀，增加物价压力；另一方面， 美联储如果对此作出反应而非预判，则可能迟滞降息进程。因此，黄金作为对冲政策不确定性的工具， 在预期分歧中一时失去了明 ...

在外部环境充满不确定的当下，这一轮上涨是否具备持续性，市场仍在观望。从基本面看，通胀数据正在转 变市场节奏。美国6月CPI环比上涨0.3%，为今年以来最大涨幅，尽管核心通胀相对温和，但广泛商品价格 上行的迹象已经浮现。尤其在特朗普最新宣布将对部分进口商品加征30%关税后，市场开始预期通胀压力可 能进一步上行，而这将对美联储的利率路径构成干扰。美联储主席鲍威尔已明确表示，将密切关注夏季物价 报告，以判断通胀是否正走出此前的回落趋势。 本周也是美国二季度财报季的起始。大型金融机构的业绩反映出分化趋势。花旗集团盈利超预期，股价上涨 3.7%，创下全球金融危机以来新高；而富国银行、贝莱德等则因盈利未及市场预期分别下跌5.5%和5.9%。 即便是摩根大通，在上调净利息收入预期的情况下也未能止住跌势。这说明，在估值处于历史高位的背景 下，即便轻微的不及预期也可能引发较大波动。 在科技股持续走强的背景下，纳斯达克指数在7月16日（周二）再度刷新纪录，五个交易日内第四次创出新 高，收于20677.80点。推动这一走势的核心因素，是英伟达宣布恢复向中国销售H20AI芯片的消息，引发芯 片板块整体上涨。英伟达当日股价大涨4%，带 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff policy has led to a significant increase in inflation in the U.S., with the Consumer Price Index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in June, up from 2.4% in May, marking the largest increase since February [1] - Prices for sensitive goods such as furniture, toys, and clothing have seen notable increases in June, indicating the direct impact of tariffs on consumer prices [1] - The data suggests that as some companies begin to pass on tariff costs to consumers, the public is starting to feel the effects of these tariffs [1] Group 2 - The broad nature of the U.S. tariff policy and its inconsistent implementation have disrupted markets, leading to increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers regarding the extent of future price increases [2] - Economists generally agree that tariffs will raise prices and harm economic growth, although there is disagreement on the magnitude of the impact and the timing of price increases [2]

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns that the threat of inflation "fire" in financial markets will outweigh the risks of economic growth and price decline "ice" [1][3] - Gross highlights that the current growth of government debt is a focal point, but its inflationary nature is not new, and its growth rate seems unstoppable [1][4] - He points out that recent tariff increases and the potential "Big Beautiful" plan mentioned by President Trump could further fuel inflation [1][4] Group 2 - Gross compares the opposing threats of inflation and deflation to "fire" and "ice," reflecting on historical economic struggles between these forces [3] - He notes that the growth of government debt, while not a new issue, is becoming increasingly inflationary over the long term [3][4] - The past decade has seen new "accelerants" such as shadow banking platforms and excess liquidity created by the Federal Reserve, which have fueled speculative investments [4] Group 3 - Gross warns that investors should be cautious of rising interest rates, which could offset productivity gains from advancements in artificial intelligence [5] - He calculates that the 10-year Treasury yield should be around 4.25% based on current consumer price inflation of 2.4% [5][6] - The risk in the long-term bond market is accumulating, with increased volatility in 30-year Treasury yields compared to shorter maturities [5][6] Group 4 - Gross emphasizes that the risk associated with long-term bonds is extremely high, noting that a small increase in the 30-year Treasury yield could erase an entire year's interest income for investors [6] - He concludes that while the situation may not be a raging fire, the heat is above normal levels, indicating significant market risks [6]

美联储-洛根：基准预期是货币政策需要继续保持紧缩一段时间，以抑制通胀。柯林斯：现在是美联储 在货币政策方面保持积极耐心的时候。关税将在下半年推动通胀上升，核心通胀率预计到年底将维持在 约3%。 德国商业银行分析师Vincent Stamer在一份报告中表示，法国政府为遏制财政赤字所提出的雄心勃勃的 计划，可能因议会分裂而导致总理贝鲁下台。贝鲁周二表示，他希望通过削减约440亿欧元的支出，来 将法国财政赤字从今年预计超过5%的水平降至明年4.6%的水平。根据该计划，削减支出的措施包括取 消两个公共假期以及冻结养老金和公务员薪资。然而，这些措施预计将非常不得人心，而由于贝鲁领导 的政府在国民议会中并未拥有多数席位，议会稍后极有可能通过对政府的不信任投票将其拉下台。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 115217 0 外运华东虹桥 197556 0 中工美供应链 541262 -8792 合计 854035 -8792 广东 深圳威豹 358754 -1378 总计 1222959 -10170 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货7月16日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计1212789千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少101 ...

技术面：黄金日线收小阴线，重心开始下移，但整体是震荡走势。4小时周期长期均线支撑有效，短期可能震荡下形，日内可关 注上方3346美元一线的压力。 原油方面： 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续小幅下挫，短期和中期形态都有走坏的迹象，当下可能是中期调整的开始。最新的通胀数据压低了美联储降息的 概率，使得美元与黄金此消彼长。 美国6月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上升0.3%，同比上升2.7%，均与市场预期一致，分别较5月的0.1%和2.4%的涨幅有所 上升。但0.3%是2月以来的最大环比涨幅，2.7%的同比涨幅也为3月以来最高。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，6月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%，高于前值的2.8%。整体而言，美国通胀明显抬 头，大大降低了美联储降息的可能，7月降息概率已经下降至不足5%。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，今年美联储可能只降息一次，美联储和特朗普的关系会更加恶化，市场的不确定性 也会增加，长期来看仍利多黄金。 技术面：原油日线连收小阴线，形成下跌C浪的概率很大。4小时周期上行结构完成，短线已经跌破均线支撑，震荡下行的概率 很大，日内可关注上方67美元一线的压力。 隔夜 ...