Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Rosenberg Research is that the U.S. real estate market will significantly contribute to a decline in overall inflation, potentially bringing it close to 1%, well below the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1] - The company's housing market activity index indicates a "substantial decline" in the U.S. real estate sector, with 10 out of 11 indicators showing significant downturns over the past six months [1][2] - The only indicator that did not decline was the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which increased by 0.8% over the past six months, but reduced transaction activity may pressure home prices downward [1] Group 2 - Housing-related expenditures account for approximately one-third of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S., and the current downturn in the housing market is expected to have a lasting suppressive effect on inflation through 2026 [2] - The projected year-on-year CPI growth for the second quarter of 2026 is estimated to be between 1.2% and 1.8%, indicating a potential halving of the inflation rate compared to current levels [2] - Concerns about inflation slowing down or even deflation are emerging, with factors such as tightened immigration policies and an aging population potentially weakening consumer demand [2][3] Group 3 - Key indicators of the housing market's decline include a 23.9% decrease in housing starts, a 23.7% drop in new single-family home sales, a 16.1% decline in existing home sales, and a 14.2% reduction in the quarterly rent index for new tenants over the past two quarters [4] - The number of potential buyer visits has decreased by 7 percentage points, which is considered a critical data point in the index [4]

黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 935 930 2025-06-27 2025-06-11 2025-07-18 2025-08-06 10:58 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 958.21 吨黄金 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 截至8月20日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为958.21吨，较前一个交易日减少4吨。8月20日，现货黄金终于迎来反弹，盘中最高升至3350.27 美元/盎司，收于3348.24美元/盎司，涨32.69美元或0.91%。在金价反弹之际，黄金ETF持仓量连续第二个交易日减少。 基本面消息，由于市场担忧科技股的高估值，尤其是芯片股等板块的大幅下挫，美股遭遇持续抛售，再加上美联储会议纪要释放"多数决策者认为，通胀上 行风险超过就业下行风险"，进一步加剧了美股的抛售情绪。 首先，科技股抛售背后，缘于麻省理工学院（MIT）某研究分支机构在一份报告中称，高达"95%的组织在生成式AI投资中获得的回报为零"，并且"只有5% 的集成AI试点项目获得 ...

另外，黄金市场近期观望情绪较浓，主要原因在于鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上发表演讲。而 根据过往经验，这一场合曾多次被他用于引导市场对利率政策的预期。 技术上看，金价围绕21日均线上下窄幅波动，方向并不十分明朗，本周多空分水岭在3355美元／盎司， 目前金价在该位置下方运行，说明当前市场是空头略占优势。若周内剩余时段金价能突破并重新站稳该 位置，金价周内仍有继续上行的空间。上行阻力关注3381美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻 力调整至3428美元／盎司附近。下行支撑关注3309美元／盎司附近，若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调 整至3283美元／盎司附近，交易策略上暂时以观望为主。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月21日电 随着美联储人事问题再出波澜，避险需求推动国际金价隔夜探底回升，强势收 复前一天的跌幅。不过，在市场仍在观望等待美联储主席鲍威尔讲话，情绪偏向谨慎的背景下，黄金短 时方向或仍不明朗。 基本面方面，北京时间周四（8月21日）凌晨公布的7月货币政策会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员在上月 的会议中强调，通胀风险已压倒对劳动力市场的担忧。官员们承认对通胀高企和就业疲软的担忧，但主 流观点仍将通胀 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes revealed a rare dissent among members regarding interest rates, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakness in the labor market, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] - Most Fed officials expressed greater concern over inflation risks compared to employment weakness, acknowledging the recent disappointing non-farm payroll data and significant downward revisions to previous employment figures [2][3] - The discussion among Fed officials highlighted the potential long-term inflationary impact of tariffs, with concerns that companies may increasingly pass on tariff costs to consumers, thereby exerting upward pressure on inflation [2] Group 2 - Fed officials issued a rare warning about vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, citing high asset valuations and concerns over the impact of stablecoins on the banking and financial systems [4] - There are worries about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market, with officials expressing concerns over the increasing presence of hedge funds and the declining liquidity in the market, which could exacerbate volatility [4] - The current high levels of U.S. government debt, combined with policy uncertainty and a trend towards de-globalization, could lead to significant fluctuations in global capital markets due to the fragility of the U.S. financial system [5] Group 3 - The discussion on stablecoins emerged prominently in the FOMC minutes, indicating potential explosive growth for these dollar-pegged digital assets, while also raising concerns about their impact on the banking system and monetary policy [6]

根据今晚凌晨公布的美联储政策会议纪要，上月美联储维持利率不变的决定获得了广泛共识，尽管美联储成员仅有鲍曼跟沃勒持反对意见并支持降息，这意 味着其余16位与会成员均表示同意。该决定出台之际，白宫曾对美联储主席鲍威尔施加了明显的政治压力，呼吁降低利率。会议上，官员们对就业市场可能 转弱表示忧虑，但多数人仍认为，通胀上升的风险是"当前更主要的威胁"。曾在会上反对维持利率不变的美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼强调，政策决定不应基于由 关税带来的价格上升，因为这类上涨大概率不会持续。多数官员仍对通胀风险保持警惕，而特朗普政府的关税政策则在内部引发了更多争议。 香港第一金市场部负责人陈生： PPLDYJ 个人分析认为尽管部分官员担忧经济活动放缓可能对就业造成压力，但他们普遍认为遏制通胀仍是当前更紧迫的 任务，因此再次决定维持利率不变。纪要指出，多家企业成本上涨正逐渐转嫁至终端消费者，通胀可能将持续"在高位运行一段时间"。这一略显"鹰派"的立 场，与部分投资者此前期望的"经济疲软或促使降息"逻辑形成明显反差。中东局势方面一波未平一波又起，以色列无视哈马斯停火方案，人质家属反对，国 际社会施压，但以色列依旧选择了升级战争，开启"加沙城总 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Oil and Trade - The shipment of Urals crude oil to India dropped to an average of 400,000 barrels per day in August, down nearly two-thirds from the previous average of 1.18 million barrels per day, indicating the effectiveness of U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases [2] - The U.S. has accepted Brazil's request to negotiate over the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, suggesting potential flexibility in tariff enforcement [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the full implementation of tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and global supply chains, with the Federal Reserve indicating that inflation risks may outweigh employment risks [3] - Citigroup estimates that U.S. companies are currently absorbing 60%-70% of tariff costs, but this may not be sustainable as companies are expected to increasingly pass these costs onto consumers [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that as of June, U.S. consumers had already borne 22% of tariff costs, with this figure projected to rise to 67% by October as more companies transfer costs [3] Group 3: Federal Budget and Debt Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its projections, indicating that the U.S. federal budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade due to tax and tariff policies [4] - The CRFB warns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 118% to 120% in a baseline scenario and to 134% in a more adverse scenario by 2035 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite continues to contract, with A-shares surging and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 leading the gains. The market is waiting for the further development of the relationships among the US, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, as well as the guidance from Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday [2][5]. - The prices of precious metals rebounded due to increased market uncertainty. Copper prices are waiting for a driving force. Aluminum prices are expected to adjust within a limited range. Alumina prices face increasing pressure. Zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering. Lead prices are weakly oscillating. Tin prices are in a tangled state. Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating widely. Nickel prices are oscillating within a range. Crude oil prices are oscillating. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][19][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals. Most people believe that inflation risks are higher than employment risks, with differences focusing on the impact of tariffs and interest rate levels. Some are worried about the instability of long - term inflation expectations and the fragility of the US Treasury market, and also concerned about the potential risks of stablecoins. Trump pressured to remove "dissidents" from the Fed, and the independence of the Fed is under threat. The market risk appetite continues to decline, with the US dollar index oscillating weakly, the 10Y US Treasury yield slightly declining, and US stocks continuing to fall. Gold, copper, and oil all rebounded. Attention is paid to the US August PMI tonight [2]. - Domestic: Leaders conducted intensive research and made speeches. A - shares rebounded after Wednesday's oscillation, with the trading volume shrinking to 2.45 trillion yuan. The market risk appetite recovered, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose by more than 3%, and sectors such as GPU and liquor led the gains. The bond market fell again as the stock market strengthened. The short - term risk appetite may be approaching the peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices both closed higher. Trump's call for Fed Governor Cook to resign increased market uncertainty, the US dollar index turned down, and precious metal prices rebounded. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The meeting between the leaders of the US, Ukraine, and Russia cooled down. Investor risk aversion increased. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated narrowly, and LME copper sought support at the 9700 level. The macro situation shows that the Fed is facing a dilemma between rising inflation and a deteriorating employment market. The market is highly concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday. The CME observation tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 85%. In terms of industry, First Quantum has launched a $1.25 billion expansion project for its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia. Short - term copper prices are expected to maintain an oscillating state waiting for a driving force [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,577/ton, up 0.37%. The Fed's July meeting minutes were hawkish. The short - term attitude of the Fed needs to be further observed. Fundamentally, aluminum prices have slightly declined in the past two days. At the transition between the off - season and peak season, downstream restocking at low prices has slightly improved, and the spot discount has converged. Technically, the downward adjustment range of aluminum prices is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and the warehouse receipt inventory continues to accumulate, so the price pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the changes in production capacity [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and slightly shifted upwards at night, and LME zinc closed higher. In July, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, while the import of refined zinc met expectations. Currently, raw materials are abundant. As zinc prices fall to near the previous low, downstream price fixing at low points increases. Short - term zinc prices are stabilizing and recovering, waiting for the guidance from Powell's speech on Friday [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly both during the day and at night, and LME lead closed higher. Globally, the high visible inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. Domestically, the improvement in consumption falls short of expectations, and the production side is relatively stable. Lead prices lack the driving force to rise but also have no continuous downward momentum due to cost support. The fundamentals maintain a state of weak supply and demand [13][14]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rebounded during the day and moved horizontally at night, and LME tin oscillated. In July, Myanmar's tin mines resumed production, but China's imports from Myanmar decreased instead. Indonesia's exports of refined tin decreased month - on - month, and overseas supplies remained tight. In the short term, the low LME inventory is difficult to reverse. Near Powell's speech, the expectation of a rate cut in September is volatile, and tin prices are in a tangled state [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated weakly. Fundamentally, the supply side is showing a marginal loosening trend, while the demand side has limited consumption growth. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. The domestic anti - involution sentiment has cooled down. Short - term futures prices are expected to enter a weakly oscillating state [16][17]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate lithium was weakly running, and the spot price was stable. An upstream salt factory in Jiangxi announced the resumption of production, but the actual output in August is expected to be limited. The core factor driving the wide - range price fluctuations may be the market's lack of confidence in the supply contraction promoted by policies. Short - term lithium prices may fluctuate widely due to emotional disturbances [19]. 3.11 Nickel - On Wednesday, nickel prices oscillated. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that the economic outlook remains pessimistic. Under the expectation of abundant nickel ore supply, the price is still strong, but nickel iron plants are under cost pressure. The refined nickel market is warming up. Nickel prices are at the lower end of the range, and attention should be paid to the rebound at low levels [20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil oscillated and strengthened. The market is waiting for the progress of the tripartite peace talks, and the market disturbances are relatively limited. The significant inventory reduction by the EIA has temporarily boosted market sentiment. However, the bearish fundamentals and the expectation of cooling geopolitical risks remain unchanged, and oil prices maintain an oscillating and wait - and - see state [21]. 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. The second - day inspection results showed that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska was good, while that in Indiana was slightly lower than the same period last year. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to continue, and the yield per unit may be lowered. US soybean growers hope to reach a trade agreement with China. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate [22][23][24]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 01 contract fell. The latest data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is good, which supports the price and limits the decline. The US's exemption obligation for small refineries may be introduced earlier than expected, and US soybean oil oscillated and fell. Short - term palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust [25][26].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.04% to 44,938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.24% to 6,395.78 points, marking its fourth consecutive decline, and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.67% to 21,172.86 points [4][5][6] - Large technology stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index falling by 1.07% [8] Sector Highlights - Travelers Group led the Dow with a 2.06% increase, followed by Walmart at 1.27% and Caterpillar at 1.06% [5][6] - In the technology sector, Apple fell by 1.97%, Amazon by 1.84%, and Tesla by 1.64%, leading the decline among the major tech companies [8][9] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed a slight increase against the market trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 0.33% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up by 0.01% [10][11] - Notable gainers included Zhengye Biology, which surged by 24.87%, and NEXT Technology, which rose by 12.62% [12] Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the July 29-30 meeting, indicating that nearly all decision-makers supported maintaining interest rates without cuts, with only two dissenting [15][16] - Discussions highlighted that overall inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [18] - The labor market was noted to be close to full employment, with low unemployment rates, although some indicators suggested potential weakness in labor demand [19] Economic Outlook - Participants expressed concerns about economic uncertainty, with risks related to inflation and employment being emphasized [19][21] - The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain data-driven, with a focus on the impacts of tariffs on economic activity and inflation [22] Political Commentary - Former President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing concerns over her financial history and its implications for her role [23][24]

普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci报告表示，在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲之际，美联储主席鲍威尔可能 会寻求为未来几次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议保留最大的灵活性，并强调政策路径将取决于通胀和劳 动力市场数据。在9月17日的美联储会议之前，还将公布一份就业报告和一份CPI报告。如果通胀数据 意外大大强于预期或劳动力市场强劲反弹，那么下一次会议可能不会降息。如果8月份就业人数增幅放 缓至每月50,000人以下，且失业率上升，则可能会出现降息50个基点的偏宽松结果。 ...

美元霸权的黄昏：特朗普降息梦碎与美联储的独立危机 一场关于降息的权力游戏，正在华盛顿上演，而美元霸权的丧钟，或许已经敲响。 曾几何时，特朗普政府为了刺激经济，可谓是"八仙过海，各显神通"。财政部长贝努特高调喊话，暗示 降息可期；总统特朗普更是语出惊人，狮子大开口，要求大幅降息。然而，美联储官员深夜一盆冷水， 彻底浇灭了白宫的降息美梦。 为了推动降息，特朗普政府可谓是无所不用其极。他们先是突袭美联储大楼，祭出所谓的"审计报告"， 逼问美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普甚至将工程问题与利率问题生硬地联系起来，声称"降息1个点能省3000 亿利息！"这背后，是特朗普政府精打细算的算盘。美国国债总额高达37万亿美元，每年仅利息支出就 高达1.2万亿美元。如果利率真的降到1%，白宫每年就能省下数千亿美元，用于修边境墙、填补医保漏 洞，甚至为中期选举提供资金。 然而，美联储内部却出现了"叛变"迹象。曾经是铁杆鹰派的美联储副主席鲍曼，一反常态地支持9月启 动三次降息。她与理事沃勒在7月会议上投下反对票，逼宫鲍威尔的架势，宛如一出华尔街版的《纸牌 屋》。更令人玩味的是，鲍曼和沃勒都是由特朗普亲自任命的。 降息固然美好，但通胀问题却如影 ...