"我们发现，许多东南亚出口商提高了对美出口商品的价格，它们已经把部分成本压力转嫁给美国消费者。"近 日，野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时说。 10月，美国特朗普政府在东盟峰会期间与泰国、马来西亚、柬埔寨和越南等东盟国家达成贸易相关协议。外界 认为，美关税政策对东南亚经贸的负面影响将是显著的。联合国开发计划署（UNDP）的报告预测，随着关税 引发价格上涨，东南亚对美出口总额或下降9.7%。 Varma称，由于美国关税政策，亚洲出口商可能面临一些成本转嫁压力和利润率压力，但总体而言，亚洲的出 口仍将保持稳健，"一个明显的变化是，大多数亚洲国家正在寻找新市场，远离美国市场、实现市场多元化。" 与此同时，中国与东南亚的经贸合作展现出强劲的韧性。海关总署数据显示，今年前三季度，中国货物贸易进 出口总值33.61万亿元人民币，同比增长4%。东盟继续保持中国第一大贸易伙伴地位。中国与东盟贸易总值为 5.57万亿元，增长9.6%，占中国外贸总值的16.6%。 10月，中国—东盟自贸区3.0版升级议定书正式签署。Varma认为，这一协定将有利于中国和东盟国家在新兴领 ...

消息面上，近日美国总统特朗普宣布，美国将在"确保国家安全"的前提下，允许英伟达向中国及其他批 准客户出口其H200人工智能（AI）芯片，美国政府将从相关销售额中抽取25%分成。开源证券认为， H200等芯片供给恢复或推动国产大模型全面升级，加速国内AI生态繁荣发展，或进一步全面扩大对国 产算力芯片的需求，长期利好国产芯片板块。 芯片股延续近期跌势，截至发稿，华虹半导体(01347)跌3.09%，报73.7港元；中芯国际(00981)跌 2.04%，报67.3港元。 ...

然而台前表面上的感伤，掩不住幕后已酝酿多时的风暴。 一场红杉资本高层版的「宫斗剧」，终于在硅谷这个初创王国中拉开帷幕。 权杖易手：密室中的逼宫时刻 「博塔要辞职了。」 当这条消息在本周早些时候炸开时，整个创投圈一片哗然。 表面的「主动让贤」背后，其实是一场精心酝酿的高层逼宫。 新智元报道 编辑：艾伦 【新智元导读】红杉资本上演高层宫斗：博塔在林君叡、帕特·格雷迪等合伙人动用内部罢免机制后交权。导火索包括错失AI投资窗口（OpenAI、Cursor 等）、强势管理与多起公关/治理风波（Klarna董事席位、COO离职、长青基金时机失误）。林君叡与格雷迪联袂接班，博塔转为投资合伙人，红杉以新 早期基金押注AI，谋求翻篇。 红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）高层会议上，大家满面愁容，宣布了让CEO罗洛夫·博塔（Roelof Botha）下台的公司集体决定。 原CEO罗洛夫·博塔（Roelof Botha） 据多名知情人士透露，红杉三位重量级合伙人：林君叡（Alfred Lin）、帕特·格雷迪（Pat Grady）和安德鲁·里德（Andrew Reed），在获得公司内部广泛 支持以及前掌门道格·莱昂内（Dou ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision resulted in a 25 basis point cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] - This decision marks the largest internal division within the Federal Reserve since 2019, with 9 out of 12 members supporting the rate cut and 3 opposing it [5][7] - The ongoing pressure from former President Trump, who has consistently argued that high interest rates hinder economic growth, has influenced some Federal Reserve officials to adopt a more dovish stance [3][8] Group 2 - The economic fundamentals indicate a weakening job market, with a slowdown in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate, leading to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to initiate a $40 billion short-term U.S. Treasury purchase program aims to maintain adequate reserve supply and enhance liquidity in the market [4] - The divergence among Federal Reserve officials reflects differing assessments of the economic situation, with some advocating for rate cuts to alleviate corporate financing costs and employment pressures, while others are concerned about inflation risks [8][9] Group 3 - The impact of the rate cut on the U.S. economy is viewed as potentially limited, as some market participants believe the current rate remains relatively high and the cut may not effectively stimulate the economy [11] - The ongoing transformation driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is also affecting the U.S. job market, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to guide the economy through monetary policy [12] - The anticipated effects of the rate cut on global markets may be diluted by ongoing trade tensions, which remain a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy [13] Group 4 - Market predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts are varied, with some analysts suggesting only one cut in the first half of the next year, while others foresee a more aggressive approach later in the year [15] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair favored by Trump could lead to a faster pace of rate cuts, although concerns about inflation could arise if aggressive cuts are implemented [15] - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to remain around 2%, falling short of Trump's target of 3%, indicating a relatively subdued economic environment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlines a grand blueprint for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of financial work in supporting China's modernization and national rejuvenation efforts [1] Group 1: High-Level Opening and International Cooperation - The company recognizes the need for a capital bridge to facilitate the new domestic and international economic collaboration, positioning itself as a leader in this dual circulation [2] - The company has completed over 3 trillion yuan in overseas equity financing and over 4.2 trillion yuan in offshore bond financing, serving approximately 5,500 overseas institutional clients [2] - The company has introduced nearly 160 billion yuan in foreign capital this year, enhancing international cooperation and promoting efficient cross-border capital flow [2] Group 2: Capital Market Development - The company has actively promoted high-level capital market openness, assisting in the establishment of international consensus and facilitating cross-listings [3] - It has launched a 1 billion yuan investment fund for economic and trade development between China and Portugal, and participated in high-profile economic and financial forums in Japan and Singapore [3] - The company has supported the issuance of the first RMB bond in Central Asia and has been a leader in issuing RMB government bonds in Macau [3] Group 3: Financial Services for the Real Economy - The company is committed to enhancing financial services for the real economy, focusing on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [4][5][6] - It has supported technology innovation projects exceeding 1 trillion yuan and established multiple thematic funds totaling over 36 billion yuan [4] - The company has managed over 180 billion yuan in pension assets and has been recognized for its leadership in social security services [5] Group 4: Strategic Development and Future Goals - The company aims to align its strategy with the national "15th Five-Year Plan," enhancing its role as a leading international investment bank [7][8] - It will focus on serving the real economy, supporting technological innovation, and promoting green transformation [8] - The company plans to strengthen its global presence and act as a bridge for Chinese enterprises going abroad, enhancing its competitiveness in the international financial landscape [8][9] Group 5: Risk Management and Innovation - The company emphasizes the importance of risk management as a lifeline, developing a comprehensive risk management system to ensure stability in the financial market [9] - It aims to foster innovation and improve corporate governance, enhancing internal vitality through optimized incentives and talent development [9]

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek is considered a significant turning point in the AI process, with its impact on humanity and history being underestimated. In ten years, it is expected that the importance of DeepSeek will be recognized, as it could prevent AI from being controlled by a few private companies, which poses a risk to humanity [1]. Group 1 - DeepSeek is viewed as a major and important turning point for the entire AI process [1] - The potential danger of AI being controlled by a few private companies is highlighted, emphasizing the need for a more open and accessible AI framework [1]

「人类首位AGI奶爸」告诉你如何用ChatGPT育儿！当AI更懂孩子后，人类还能教给下一代什么。 刚拉响OpenAI「红色警报」（Red Code）的奥特曼，昨天上了电视。 还是有名的肥伦「今夜秀」。 但是，他看起来很开心，还和肥伦大谈特谈育儿经。 也许很多人不知道，奥特曼是有孩子的，虽然他的另一半也是男性。 当时这个小婴儿还被称为是：人类首个AGI男孩。 拓展阅读：刚刚，奥特曼晒出早产娃引爆全网！两个爸爸孕育人类首个「AGI宝宝」 如果忘掉最近Gemini 3发布后OpenAI如临大敌的状态，在《今夜秀》的聚光灯下，奥特曼其实就是一个温和、风趣的「奶爸」。 尤其是谈到「抚养孩子时会用到ChatGPT吗？」 当AI比你更懂你的孩子 先聊聊好玩的那部分。 最近奥特曼在脱口秀上讲了个段子，特别扎心。 他说自己在派对上遇到个朋友，人家的宝宝才6个月大，已经满地乱爬了。 奥特曼一听就慌了：「我家那个怎么还没动静？」 这种「同辈压力」是不是很熟悉？ 换做以前，大部分可能会去查谷歌等搜索引擎，然后被吓得半死；或者去问爸妈，被唠叨一通。 ChatGPT知道奥特曼的身份，将问题上升到了独属于奥特曼的心理体验层次，甚至还能给他 ...

宏观经济点评 2025 年 12 月 11 日 美联储进一步降息空间或相对有限 宏观研究团队 ——12 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点发布 12 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布 降息 25bp。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储在此次会议上宣布再次降息 25bp，降息后利率水平在 3.5%-3.75%区间。 资产负债表政策方面，美联储认为准备金已经降至充足水平，将根据需要启动短 期国债的购买（初期 400 亿美元/月）。 2. 再次降息 25bp，维持就业市场走弱风险上升判断。在声明中，美联储的措辞 同 10 月份相比基本未变，即认为美国经济正在以温和的速度扩张。就业方面， 美联储认为就业增长有所放缓，失业率在 9 月份略有上升，且近期指标也印证了 这一趋势，因此就业下行风险有所上升；通胀方面，仍维持通胀率处于较高水平 的判断。在委员投票中，美联储官员们的分歧更加显性化，除了特朗普新 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% during the December 9-10 meeting, marking the third rate cut since the resumption of cuts in September 2025[3] - The dot plot indicates further rate cuts of 25 basis points in both 2026 and 2027, consistent with the September projections[4] - The economic projections (SEP) for GDP growth were revised upward for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2% respectively[4] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The median unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, with slight adjustments to 4.4% in 2026 and a reduction to 4.2% in 2027[7] - Core PCE inflation forecasts were revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 3% for 2025 and to 2.5% for 2026, while remaining at 2.1% for 2027[7] - The Fed's assessment reflects a belief in productivity gains from technological advancements, similar to the non-inflationary growth of the 1990s[8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Guidance - Following the Fed's announcement, the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 decreased to 22.1% from 30.2%, while the probability for April increased to 44.2% from 37.6%[19] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 5 basis points to 4.13%, and the dollar index decreased to 98.64 from 99.24[19] - The Fed's approach is characterized as preventive easing rather than reactive to a recession, aiming to avoid triggering negative feedback mechanisms in the economy[18]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第九， 简单来看，美联储降息兑现构成对风险资产的利好，对其明年经济的基准乐观情形亦有利于盈利支 撑；美元指数延续 11 月最后一周以来的调整亦有利于非美资产。但美联储高增长低通胀的核心假设具有不 确定性，如果后续通胀约束其降息，则美元反弹将带来扰动 。 正文 第一， 美联储 12 月 9-10 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票下调联邦基金利率 25bp 至 3.5%-3.75% ，这是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第三次降息。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（ Schmid ）、芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比（ Goolsbee ）倾向于不降息，而理事米兰则倾向于在此次会议上降息 50 个基点。本次议息会 议降息在市场预期之内， 25bp 也属于基准预期情形，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储点阵图对 2026 年政策路径和经济走势的指引；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 第二， 12 月点阵图（ dot plot ）显示 2026 年和 2027 年各再降 25bp （和 9 月一致）。经济预测（ S ...