| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 日素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/23 | 3423. 43 | 39. 31 | 3436. 40 | 39.66 | 790. 30 | 9467.00 | 788. 50 | 9454.00 | | (本表數 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/7/22 | 3384. 46 | 38. 86 | 339 ...

巴克莱日本利率/外汇策略团队三名分析师在研报中指出，美日贸易协定短期内可能对日元构成利好。该团队注意到， 日本央行副行长内田真一在协议公布后表态称，该协定将减少不确定性并加快加息进程。隔夜指数互换市场数据显 示，交易员预计日本央行10月前加息15个基点、12月前加息20个基点，较周二预期的9个基点和15个基点显著提升。分 析师补充称，关税相关不确定性消退与日央行加息时间表提前的双重因素，将在短期内支撑日元走势。 在美日达成协议、美欧接近达成15%关税协议的消息提振下，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧大幅降温，风险情绪被点燃，标 普500、纳指再创新高，小盘股领涨。避险情绪消退下，美债收益率全线上涨，黄金跌破3400美元关口。 周四(7月24日)亚洲时段，现货黄金目前交投于3381一线下方，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3379.88美元/盎司，下跌 0.21%，最高触及3393.09美元/盎司，最低下探3374.55美元/盎司。 由于市场对贸易战担忧情绪降温，全球股市普遍上 涨，打压黄金的避险买需；美联储下周大概率按兵不动，美债收益率反弹，也限制金价走势，日内将可关注欧洲央行 公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, experienced significant declines due to reduced market risk appetite following trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to heavy selling pressure on these assets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell to around $3370 per ounce, while silver saw a short-term decline with a daily drop of 1.00%, falling below the $39 mark [1] - The market's risk aversion diminished as the U.S. reached trade agreements, resulting in decreased attractiveness of precious metals as safe-haven assets [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements - The EU and the U.S. are nearing a trade agreement that would impose a 15% tariff on European imports, similar to a recent agreement between the U.S. and Japan [2] - The EU may accept "reciprocal tariffs" to avoid the threat of increased tariffs from the U.S., which could rise to 30% starting August 1 [2] - Some products, including aircraft, spirits, and medical equipment, may be exempt from tariffs under the new agreement [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is struggling to maintain above the $3400 mark, with potential further declines if it breaks below the July 16 high of $3377.17, targeting the $3350-$3330 range [3] - Silver has shown strong performance due to industrial demand and supply shortages, which may indirectly support gold prices [3] - If gold surpasses $3400 per ounce, the next resistance levels are at $3452 and the historical high of $3500; otherwise, it may drop to $3350, with further support at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages [3] Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is consolidating below $39.50 after a three-day surge, with a relative strength index around 73, indicating strong bullish momentum but potential overbought conditions [4] - The price has been moving within a defined ascending channel since early April, with significant support levels at $38.45-$38.10 and further down at the 21-day moving average of $37.59 [4] - The 50-day moving average at $36.20 provides a solid support level, reinforcing the broader upward trend in silver prices [4]

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在昨晚的美盘时段，一则关于欧美关税协议接近达成的消息重磅出炉，瞬间引发市场避险情绪大幅降 温。受此影响，黄金价格迅速跳水式下跌，且在美盘期间反弹乏力。最终，黄金日线以一根醒目的大阴 线收官，呈现出典型的"乌云盖顶"形态。 从1小时级别来看，黄金的均线已自高位开始拐头向下，在消息面的冲击下，多头动能明显受挫。与此 同时，黄金短线走势已然构筑出头肩顶结构。倘若后续反弹未能强势突破3400关口，则意味着右肩成 型，短期顶部结构——头肩顶将正式确立，届时空头力量将全面爆发，开启下行趋势。 【要闻速递】 美日达成贸易协议，美方对日本实施的对等关税为15%，同时欧美贸易谈判进展顺利，大多数产品税率 或为15%，贸易协议进展给推升市场风险偏好，贵金属小幅回落。 不过，值得注意的是，欧盟仍在准备一项报复性关税方案，以防在8月1日前无法达成协议，欧美贸易谈 判风险仍存。 摘要今日周四（7月24日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3383.90美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3386.65美元/盎司，跌幅0.01%，最高上探3393.09美元/盎司，最低触及3383.90美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently trading around $3,390, influenced by reduced trade friction concerns following agreements between the US and Japan, and the EU and the US nearing a 15% tariff agreement [1][3] - The market's risk appetite has increased, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by $44.44, or 1.3%, closing at $3,387.22 per ounce [3] - Since April, the US has imposed an additional 10% tariff on EU exports, while the average tariff on EU products was previously 4.8% [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a slightly strong oscillating trend, with recent price movements suggesting a potential for upward adjustments [5] - The daily chart shows that gold prices have completed a pullback after breaking through previous resistance levels, with short-term moving averages indicating a bullish divergence [5] - Hourly trends indicate that gold is currently in a narrow range of fluctuations, but signs of technical recovery are emerging, suggesting that adjustments may be nearing completion [5]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and declined, influenced by trade agreements between the US and other partners, which reduced market risk appetite and led to selling pressure [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3431.72 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3438.67, and then fell to a low of $3381.55, closing at $3387.02, with a daily range of $57.12 and a decline of $44.7, or 1.3% [3][5]. - The price is expected to remain in a consolidation phase unless it breaks through resistance levels, with potential support at the 10-day moving average or mid-line [3][9]. Market Influences - The US dollar index is showing a weak trend, which may limit gold's decline, but there are still short-term risks of further price drops [3][5]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and PMI figures, are anticipated to have a mixed impact on the market, leaning towards bearish for gold [5]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent trade negotiations easing tensions, the overall impact on gold prices is expected to be limited, with a prevailing bullish sentiment due to potential interest rate cuts [5][7]. - The long-term view remains positive for gold, supported by global economic slowdown, expectations of loose monetary policy, and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential bull market resurgence by the end of the year [5][9]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate a recent rebound after touching support levels, although there are signs of weakening bullish momentum [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3383 or $3370, while resistance levels are at $3400 or $3416 [9].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight decline on July 23, primarily due to investors taking profits after prices reached a five-week high [1] - The focus of market participants is on the trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline set by President Trump [1] - As of the report, spot gold prices fell by 0.53%, trading at $3413 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, with President Trump urging for interest rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Chairman Powell [3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin proposed a comprehensive internal review of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the potential loss of central bank independence [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe have led to a stalemate in negotiations, contributing to uncertainty in tariff policies and a volatile global trade environment [3] Group 3 - The early part of the week saw a positive trend in gold prices, breaking through previous resistance levels and stabilizing above $3400 [5] - Short-term support for gold is identified at $3405, with key resistance levels at $3438 and historical highs at $3452 [5] - The market outlook suggests a cautious approach, with strategies to enter long positions near $3405 and short positions near $3435, while monitoring for potential breakouts [5]

斯德哥尔摩会谈将是继今年5月在日内瓦举行的会谈之后举行的中美又一次会谈，会谈达成了为期90天的暂停高额关税协议，上个月在伦敦举行的 后续会议则促使各国取消了出口管制。自此以后，美国放松了对我们销售低端半导体的限制，而我们则在6月份增加了稀土磁体的出货量。 贝森特还预测，从现在到特朗普政府为其他主要经济体设定的8月1日最后期限之间将出现"大量"贸易协定。 而就在今天凌晨，TRUMP在社交平台发文称，刚刚与日本完成了一项规模庞大的交易，可能是有史以来最大的一笔交易。日本将向美国投资5500 亿美元，美国将获得90%的利润。此外，日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。 来源：张志专栏 隔夜美国的关税又传来消息： 美国财长贝森特在接受媒体采访时表示，中美之间当前贸易休战协议将于8月12日到期，他下周将前往斯德哥尔摩，与中国同行会面，商讨可能的 延期事宜。他还表示，与中国的谈判现在可以涉及更广泛的议题，可能包括中国继续从俄罗斯和伊朗购买"受制裁"的石油。"与中国的贸易关系非 常好，我们将讨论两国可以合作的许多其他事宜。" 贝森特补充说，美国希望看到中国"减少制造业过剩，并集中精力建设消费经济"。 贵金属方面 昨天国际金价一 ...

本周贵金属市场持续剧烈波动，美联储降息预期分歧达到白热化。美联储理事沃勒坚持7月启动降息的必要性，旧 金山联储主席戴利则倾向于秋季实施两次降息，而芝加哥联储主席穆萨莱姆警告称，关税引发的通胀效应可能持 续到年底才能明朗。这一系列不同声音导致市场预期差不断拉大，显著推高贵金属市场波动率。 第四，美国财政政策引发美元信用体系动荡。特朗普签署的"大而美"法案带来巨额财政赤字，未来十年减税规模 将达4万亿美元，财政支出削减1.5万亿美元，导致财政缺口扩大至3.6万亿美元。IMF预计美国财政赤字率将攀升 至GDP的8.8%，美元信用风险加剧，进一步推高贵金属配置需求。 第五，投资与衍生品市场共同发力。央视新闻数据显示，实物银条、银元宝销量同比激增40%以上，零售投资热 情高涨。同时，白银ETF持仓持续上升，机构资金加速进场，形成资金共振效应。 展望后市，贵金属料将维持震荡偏强走势。黄金3300美元/盎司、白银36.5美元/盎司成为关键支撑位，光伏产业刚 性需求、"大而美"法案对美元信用的冲击，以及技术面突破37美元后打开的38-40美元上行空间，将共同构筑白银 的强势格局。 限时抢金 年化36%奖金入 BCR Co P ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve and the White House is influencing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which is expected to support gold prices [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, while President Trump advocates for a reduction of up to 300 basis points [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations, with a deadline of August 1 for agreements, adds to the volatility in the gold market [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The latest API data shows a decrease of 577,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, which is below market expectations and may negatively impact oil prices [4] - Upcoming discussions between the U.S. and China may address China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, potentially affecting oil market dynamics [4] - OPEC+ compliance with production cuts, except for Kazakhstan, suggests that oil supply may remain constrained, providing support for oil prices [4] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing signs of a significant upward movement, with a potential breakout from its previous trading range [5] - Attention is drawn to the support level at 40,700, which may influence future price movements [5] Group 4: Copper Market - Recent trading in copper shows a strong upward trend, with multiple consecutive days of gains indicating bullish sentiment [7] - The 20-day and 62-day moving averages are trending upwards, suggesting continued strength in the copper market [7] - Short-term focus is on the support level at $5.61, which may be tested during market fluctuations [7]