Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [6] - Silver: 1 [6] - Copper: 2 [9] - Zinc: 1 [12] - Lead: 0 [14] - Tin: 1 [18] - Aluminum: 1 [22] - Alumina: 0 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [22] - Platinum: 0 [28] - Palladium: 0 [28] - Nickel: 0 [32] - Stainless Steel: 0 [32] 2. Core Views - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2] - Silver: Consolidating at high levels [2] - Copper: Bullish sentiment is strong, and prices are rising continuously [2] - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Trading in a range [2] - Aluminum: Continuing to make up for losses [2] - Alumina: Slightly declining [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Oscillating upwards [2] - Palladium: Trading in a range [2] - Nickel: A wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives [2] - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly speculating on Indonesian policies [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84, down 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30, up 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140, down 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015, up 6.11% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US air - strikes on Venezuela, geopolitical risks support gold, and OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in Q1 [4][6] Copper - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 101350, up 3.17%; LME Copper 3M closed at 13088, up 5.03% [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrank, and China's November 2025 copper ore imports increased [7] - **Industry Developments**: Chile's Mantoverde copper - gold mine labor contract negotiation, Julong Copper Mine's second - phase expansion, and Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter's production [9] Zinc - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 23820, up 2.34%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3127, up 0.03% [10] - **News**: China's December service industry PMI expanded, and Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court [11] Lead - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17395, up 0.23%; LME Lead 3M closed at 1994, down 0.57% [13] - **News**: Maduro's arrest and US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage [14] Tin - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 334370, up 3.55%; LME Tin 3M closed at 42560, up 5.74% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: US hopes Venezuela to stop oil sales, SK Hynix's new product display, and NVIDIA's plan [18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 23645, up 720; Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2770, down 8; Cast Aluminum Alloy's main contract closed at 22520 [20] - **Comprehensive News**: US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage and US motives for Venezuelan military action [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 583.95, up 8.80%; Palladium futures 2606 closed at 452.85, up 6.50% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan situation, FOMC member's speech, China - South Korea summit, and new energy vehicle sales [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 134100, up 1250; Stainless Steel's main contract closed at 13075, down 50 [29] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses, China's steel product export license, and Indonesia's nickel - related policies [29][30]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous weakening of US manufacturing PMI data, precious metals prices oscillated upward on the day. Short - term gold is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, while silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [1]. - In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of both gold and silver. The expectation of a mild economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The employment index was 44.9, and the new orders index was 47.7 [2]. - The US launched a military operation against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Maduro. Venezuela established a committee for Maduro's release [2]. - The air forces of the UK and France carried out a joint air strike on a suspected underground weapons depot of the "Islamic State" in Syria on January 3 [2]. - Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India on January 4 if India does not meet US requirements to curb oil purchases from Russia [2]. - On January 5, the on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 6.977, hitting a new high since mid - May 2023 [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions and weak US manufacturing PMI data, gold prices oscillated upward. Short - term factors to focus on include the situation in Venezuela after the US raid, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting on January 8, the possible "sell - the - fact" risk after the Fed chair nomination, and important US macro data this week. In the annual outlook, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][7]. - **Silver**: Silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's. However, attention should be paid to the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January. The risk of short - term volatility may increase. In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives it greater upward elasticity [8]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2664.63 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2267.44 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1410.29 (+0.00%) [50]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 5, 2026, was 3824.25, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a 5 - day decline of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [51].

Market Overview - The three major indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones reaching an intraday record high of 49,209.95 points [1] - The US stock market started the first full trading week of 2026 positively, led by technology and energy stocks [1] - Despite geopolitical risks following the removal of Venezuelan President Maduro, traders showed little concern [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing index for December recorded 47.9, indicating the largest contraction since 2024, with the index below 50 for ten consecutive months [6] - The report suggests that many companies are relying on existing inventory to meet weak demand, although a decrease in customer inventory may signal potential order and production increases in the coming months [6] Commodity Market - Gold prices rose over 2.6% to $4,449.02, with an intraday high of $4,455 [5] - Copper prices surpassed $13,000 per ton due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, raising supply concerns [5] - The US is expected to face a copper supply shortfall of 300,000 to 400,000 tons in 2026, with demand projected to grow by about 3% [5] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin surpassed $94,000, gaining over 2.8%, while Ethereum rose over 2.9% to $3,237.8 [4] Company News - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced that Neuralink will begin large-scale production of its brain-machine interface devices in 2026, aimed at helping patients with paralysis and neurological diseases [8] - Qualcomm is expanding its PC chip offerings with the new X2Plus processor, targeting the mid-range laptop market [10] - Chevron (CVX.US) saw a 5.2% increase, nearing a new high, while Tesla (TSLA.US) rose by 3% [2]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones reaching an intraday record high of 49,209.95 points [1] - The Dow increased by 594.79 points (1.23%) to close at 48,977.18 points, while the Nasdaq rose by 160.19 points (0.69%) to 23,395.82 points, and the S&P 500 gained 43.58 points (0.64%) to finish at 6,902.05 points [2] Sector Performance - Technology and energy stocks led the gains in the U.S. market, with Chevron (CVX.US) up 5.2% and Tesla (TSLA.US) rising 3% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.5%, with Beike (BEKE.US) rising over 6% [2] Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December recorded 47.9, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for ten consecutive months [6] - Despite the contraction, a decrease in customer inventories suggests potential strengthening in factory orders and production in the coming months [6] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose over 2.6% to $4,449.02 per ounce, with a peak of $4,455 [5] - Copper prices surpassed $13,000 per ton due to supply concerns from a strike at a Chilean copper mine [5] - Oil prices also increased, with light crude oil futures rising by $1.00 to $58.32 per barrel, and Brent crude up $1.01 to $61.76 per barrel [5] Company Developments - Neuralink, led by Elon Musk, plans to begin mass production of its brain-machine interface devices in 2026, aimed at helping patients with paralysis and neurological diseases [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.US) is expanding its PC chip offerings with the new X2 Plus processor, targeting the mid-range laptop market [11] Government Actions - The U.S. Department of Energy announced $2.7 billion in orders to enhance domestic uranium enrichment capabilities, aiming to reduce reliance on Russian supplies [8] - U.S. Energy Secretary is set to meet with oil executives to discuss revitalizing Venezuela's energy sector following the arrest of President Maduro [10]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Precious Metals - The military action by the U.S. in Venezuela has led to a significant increase in demand for precious metals as investors seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a rebound in gold and silver prices [1][2] - Gold prices rose above $4,430 per ounce after a previous decline of 4.4% [3] - Silver prices surged nearly 5% to around $76 per ounce, with platinum and palladium also experiencing gains [6][9] Group 2: Oil Market Response - The oil market reacted calmly to the geopolitical turmoil, with both Brent and WTI crude oil prices experiencing slight declines [14] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, which has contributed to the muted response in oil prices despite the unrest in Venezuela [14] - Venezuela's current oil production of approximately 1 million barrels per day accounts for less than 1% of global supply, leading to a perception that the geopolitical event will not significantly disrupt the overall oil market [14][15] Group 3: U.S. Oil Companies' Involvement - The U.S. government is encouraging major oil companies to invest heavily in Venezuela's oil infrastructure, indicating a long-term interest in revitalizing the country's oil industry [16][17] - Concerns exist regarding the feasibility of restoring Venezuela's oil production due to historical challenges faced in similar geopolitical situations, such as in Libya and Iraq [17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market started the first full trading week of 2026 positively, led by technology and energy stocks, despite geopolitical risks from the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro being largely ignored by traders [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Traders showed no significant concern over geopolitical risks following the removal of Maduro, indicating a resilient market sentiment [1] - Christopher Harvey from CIBC Capital Markets noted that the impact of Maduro's arrest on the U.S. stock market is minimal due to Venezuela's limited economic size and isolation [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Recent events suggest that 2026 may face greater macroeconomic uncertainty, supporting expectations of "risk-off sentiment" in the first half of the year [1] - Harvey advised clients to tilt their portfolios towards high-quality or low-volatility stocks in light of the anticipated market conditions [1] Group 3: Upcoming Data - Investors are awaiting a series of macroeconomic data releases, with the December non-farm payroll report on Friday being particularly significant [1]

Core Viewpoint - The jewelry brand Chow Sang Sang is set to increase prices on certain gold jewelry items starting January 6, with price hikes ranging from 200 to 1500 yuan, marking it as the first brand to announce a price increase in the new year [1]. Price Adjustments - Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry prices will see an increase of approximately 10% to 15% for most fixed-price items, including beads and diamond-studded pieces [1]. - As of today, the price of Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry is 1376 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.62% increase from the previous day [2]. - In the previous year, Chow Sang Sang had multiple price adjustments, including a 100 to 500 yuan increase in September and a 25% to 35% increase in October [3]. Market Context - The significant rise in gold prices has prompted Chow Sang Sang and other brands to adjust their pricing strategies, as competitors like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng have also raised prices multiple times throughout the year [4]. - The international gold price has continued to rise, recently surpassing 4400 dollars per ounce, with an increase of over 2% [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly following a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the bullish outlook on gold prices, with expectations that gold could reach 5000 dollars per ounce by 2026 [8].

Group 1 - Zhou Shengsheng is set to increase the prices of certain gold jewelry items by 200 to 1500 yuan, marking it as the first brand to announce a price hike in the new year [2] - The price increase will affect categories such as beads, fortune beads, and gold-inlaid diamond jewelry, with most fixed-price gold items seeing a rise of approximately 10% to 15% [2] - As of today, the price of Zhou Shengsheng's pure gold jewelry is 1376 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.62% increase from the previous day [2] Group 2 - International gold prices have continued to rise, with COMEX and London gold both surpassing the 4400 USD per ounce mark, showing an increase of over 2% [3] - The geopolitical tensions, particularly following the U.S. airstrike in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the bullish sentiment for gold prices [5] - Multiple international financial institutions predict that gold prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce by 2026, with UBS suggesting a potential rise to 5400 USD per ounce under higher risk scenarios [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Sang Sang is set to increase the prices of certain gold jewelry items by up to 1500 yuan, marking it as the first gold jewelry brand to announce a price hike in the new year [2]. Price Increase Details - The price increase will range from 200 yuan to 1500 yuan, with most items seeing a rise of approximately 10% to 15% [2]. - The types of jewelry affected include bead bracelets, fortune beads, and gold-inlaid diamond pieces [2]. - As of January 5, the price of Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry was 1376 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.62% increase from the previous day [3]. Historical Price Adjustments - In 2022, Chow Sang Sang made several price adjustments, including a 100 to 500 yuan increase in September and a 25% to 35% increase in October [3]. - Other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng have also adjusted their prices multiple times, with increases ranging from 10% to 20% in March and 12% to 18% in October [4]. Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have been on the rise, recently surpassing 4400 USD per ounce, with an increase of over 2% [6]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce by 2026, driven by macroeconomic risks and geopolitical tensions [9]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical events, including a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela, have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8]. - The ongoing tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East are expected to further support gold prices [8].

研 究 院 货 金 融 避险情绪推动，铜价再度大涨 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场全线 大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。叠加节后补库需求，日内有色金属持续 上行。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报101350，现货报100720，沪铜日内持续拉升，现货较期货贴水-1810点。今日现货基差 升水35点，现货成交略有好转。LME现货升水扩大至39美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存小幅下降，沪铜库存明显上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价大幅下降至41.5美元，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至7.88，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1288点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘。 | | | | 铜市场指标监测 | | 院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...