2月2日，国内商品期市开盘后，多数主力合约下跌。 市场情绪急速切换，贵金属领跌市场 跌幅方面，沪银、钯、铂、沪锡跌停，沪金跌11.68%；基本金属全部下跌。此外，能源、黑色、化工、航运等板块也都出现 不同程度的下跌。当日下午开盘后，原油、燃料油、铜、铝合金等多个品种纷纷跌停。 华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇表示，虽然上述交易所调整的目的是通过提高交易成本，降低市场交易杠杆，完善 风控体系，但调整贵金属保证金比例初期大概率会加大市场波动。 铂、钯期货双双跌停 2月2日，铂、钯期货主力2606合约双双跌停，分别报552.15元/克、413.70元/克。 对此，业内人士认为，在宏观预期转向与流动性收紧的双重压力下，贵金属市场波动剧烈，影响铂族金属同步下行。 | 全部主力 | 夜盘主力 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | 淵鉄 | 淵速 | 采价 | 室价 | | 1 | ag2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | -50 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 鹰派预期升温，价格大幅回调 2026/2/1 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，黄金价 格回调。截至上周五，美黄金报收4908美元/盎司，周 内下跌1.5%，关注上方压力位5060，下方支撑位4750。 17.0000 37.0000 57.0000 77.0000 97.0000 117.0000 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，白 银价格大幅回调。截至上周五，周度跌幅17.4%，报 收85.3美元/盎司，关注下方支撑位78，上方压力位 90。 数据来源：ifind 长江期货有色 ...

2200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 展望后市，本次贵金属市场的崩盘给原本的上涨趋势踩下刹车、短期市场或继续释放风险。但在经历了近期的太幅调整后、市场风险也得到一定释放、随着杠 杆的去化，叠加伊朗地缘仍旧复杂和美国政府正式部分停摆等，预计金银价格后续进一步大幅下挫空间或相对有限。白银方面，现货仍旧偏紧、库存持续回落，且 隐波高达100以上，短期玻动料仍较为તી?。中长朝来看，本次贵金属价格的崩盘并不意味着贵金属牛市格局的结束，在美联储年内仍有降息概率，全球地缘不确定 性持续和美国巨额债务将不断推进去美元化浪潮等背景下，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续，贵金属价格重心仍有上行空间、可关注本次暴跌后带来的逢 低配置机会。 体我告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，但更期货力求准确可靠。但不对上越信息的准确性及完熟性依任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别投资者保持知投资目标、财务优况或需要、投资 者需三行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况，融此投资。责任会负。本报告仅向标定客户推送，来组国资降货资政许可，任何引用、转载以及可第三方传播的行为少购成或回贸贸股权规 声明 我司 ...

2月2日午后，现货黄金一度失守4500美元/盎司，为1月9日以来首次，日内重挫7.9%；截至发稿，报4533.66美元/盎司，跌7.38%； 现货白银一度跌超14%，截至发稿，跌11.49%，报75.46美元/盎司；纽约期银日内跌超5%，现报75.52美元/盎司。 | 贵金属 它 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 4533.660 | 75.461 | 4623.9 | | -361.458 -7.38% | -9.798 -11.49% | -121.2 -2.55% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 75.525 | 1019.20 | 24832 | | -3.006 -3.83% | -177.72 -14.85% | -5087 -17.00% | 国内期货市场上，黄金期货主力合约沪金2604一度跌超15%，触及1016元/克；此外，沪银主力合约跌停。 中金公司（601995）最新发布的研究报告分析称，金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主导，传统的黄金测算模型如实际利率已失效。影响更大的地缘与货币体 ...

贵金属极端行情仍在延续。 消息面上，受获利回吐和短期期货交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格1月30日继续大幅下跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 方正证券援引多家机构分析指出，经历近一个月来金银价格暴涨，此次市场抛售在所难免。总部位于伦敦的布里坦尼亚全球市场公司资产经纪公司分析师 表示，考虑到1月份贵金属上涨的速度和幅度，此次回调并不出乎意料。英国研究机构金属聚焦公司分析师认为，近来贵金属上涨行情呈现非理性，但鉴 于投资者面临持续的地缘政治风险和经济不确定性，市场抛售或难以持续。 截至13时56分，现货黄金报4536美元/盎司，现货白银报75美元/盎司。 受此影响，国内期货市场上，黄金期货主力合约沪金2604一度跌超15%，触及1016元/克；此外，沪银主力合约跌停。 截至2月2日午后，A股黄金股大面积跌停。 | 名标 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 - | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 菜绅通灵 | 8.34 | -0.93 | -10.03% | | 恒邦股份 | 18.59 | -2.07 | -10.02% | | 招金黄金 | 23.10 | -2.57 | -10 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold has seen a significant decline, with a drop of 7% to $4533.41 per ounce, while spot silver has decreased by 13% to $73.143 per ounce [1] - The market reacted sharply to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to a historic drop in gold prices, which fell by 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline in 40 years [5][6] - The dollar index rebounded significantly following the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a tightening monetary policy [5] Group 2: Commodity Price Movements - The main copper futures contract hit the limit down, falling by 9.01% to 98,580 yuan per ton, while international copper futures also dropped by 9% to 87,250 yuan per ton [4] - Aluminum futures also experienced a limit down, decreasing by 7% to 21,840 yuan per ton, and SC crude oil futures fell by 7.02% to 449 yuan per barrel [4] - The WTI crude oil price dropped by 5.67% to $61.51, while ICE Brent crude fell by 5.48% to $65.52, reflecting a broader trend of declining commodity prices [3][7] Group 3: Economic Implications - The market's sensitivity to Walsh's nomination is attributed to his criticism of excessive quantitative easing and support for balance sheet reduction, which may curb narratives around dollar devaluation [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility in precious metals is more indicative of a deleveraging and liquidity tightening environment rather than a clear macroeconomic revaluation [6] - The strengthening dollar has made oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, contributing to the recent declines in oil prices [7]

记者｜金珊 见习记者林健民 林芊蔚 编辑｜江佩佩 贵金属极端行情仍在延续。 2月2日下午，现货黄金失守4500美元/盎司，为1月9日以来首次，日内重挫7.9%。截至发稿回 调至4530美元/盎司上方，现货白银一度跌破73美元/盎司，日内跌14%。 国内黄金品牌金饰价格方面，2月2日，周生生足金饰品价格为1484元/克，较1月29日（国际金 价创历史新高日）下降224元；周六福足金饰品价格1484元/克，较1月29日下降217元/克；周 大福足金价格为1489元/克，较1月29日跌217元/克；老庙足金饰品价格为1509元/克，较1月29 日跌217元/克。 受此影响，国内期货市场上，黄金期货主力合约沪金2604一度跌超15%，触及1016元/克；此 外，沪银主力合约跌停。 截至2月2日午后，A股黄金股大面积跌停。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 菜绅通灵 | 8.34 | -0.93 | -10.03% | | 恒邦股份 | 18.59 | -2.07 | -10.02% | | 招金黄金 | 23.10 | -2.57 | -10.0 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic fluctuations in financial markets, including the surge in the yen, the volatility of gold and silver prices, and the implications of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and U.S. monetary policy [2][3]. - Gold experienced a significant price increase, reaching nearly $5,600 per ounce before a sharp decline of $800 over three days, indicating a market correction after being overbought [2]. - The article highlights the increasing importance of gold as a hedge against central bank policies and geopolitical risks, suggesting that it is no longer viewed as an alternative investment but rather a necessary asset in the current monetary and geopolitical environment [3]. Group 2 - The nomination of Jerome Powell's potential successor, John Taylor, is discussed, emphasizing the political dynamics surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership and the implications for monetary policy [4][5]. - The article notes that the U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline, influenced by Japan's fiscal policies and the subsequent intervention by the U.S. and Japan to stabilize the currency [6]. - Concerns are raised about the long-term credibility of the U.S. dollar due to recent actions by the Trump administration, which may undermine the established global monetary order and affect the perception of U.S. assets [7]. Group 3 - The upcoming focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data and the peak reporting season for major corporations is highlighted, indicating potential market-moving events in the near term [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying logic of the current precious metals bull market is global de - dollarization, which remains intact. Central bank gold purchases continue [81]. - Despite Trump's nomination of Warsh as the new Fed chair, the Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates, leading to a decline in real US Treasury yields and benefiting gold and silver. Fed balance - sheet reduction is difficult to implement [81]. - The impairment of the US dollar's credit is due to multiple factors and is likely to enter a medium - to - long - term decline. 2026 is a big year for US Treasury issuance, with the total scale expected to exceed $40 trillion [81]. - Gold and silver are being redefined as anti - inflation assets and important components of global asset allocation. Silver's supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and it may have better price elasticity and return in 2026 [81]. - In the short term, there is a need for a technical correction, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged [81]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Gold - In January 2026, the global gold market had a spectacular performance. London gold broke through the $5000 mark and reached nearly $5600, then had a significant drop. However, both London gold and Shanghai gold had cumulative gains of over 10%. Factors influencing the market included increased geopolitical uncertainty, accelerated de - dollarization, the Fed's inaction, the end of a series of negative factors, and Trump's appointment of a new Fed chair [14]. 2. Silver - In January 2026, the silver market also had an epic performance, with a more violent fluctuation. It had a cumulative gain of over 30%. The driving factors were similar to those of gold, and the potential risk of overseas delivery was also priced in. It also had a significant correction at the end of the month [17]. II. Macro Logic 1. Change in the Pricing Logic of Precious Metals - The traditional relationship between US Treasury real yields and gold has changed since 2023. The US debt, deficit, and the impairment of the US dollar's credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold. The pricing logic has shifted from the financial to the monetary attribute [21]. 2. De - dollarization Trend - The US dollar index has been declining since 2025, indicating a long - term decline in the US dollar premium. The "Triffin Dilemma" and the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" are related to the US's economic strategy, which may lead to a reduction in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Global central banks have been de - dollarizing and increasing their gold holdings [24]. 3. Weakening of the Safe - haven Attributes of the US Dollar and US Treasuries - The US dollar and US Treasuries have started to show risk - asset characteristics, with the US stock, bond, and currency markets experiencing multiple sell - offs. Gold and silver's safe - haven attributes have been highlighted [28]. 4. Expansion of US Treasury Debt - The US Treasury debt has been expanding rapidly, with the total expected to exceed $40 trillion in 2026. This has led to a diversion of global safe - haven funds to gold, silver, and other assets [30]. 5. Gold as a Hedge against Credit Risk - Gold and silver have become the ultimate choice to hedge against the risks of the global credit currency system due to high global debt and the weakening of the US dollar's credibility [32]. 6. US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has an approximately 17 - year cycle, and currently, it is at the start of a downward cycle. A decline in the US dollar index is expected to boost gold prices [34]. 7. US Economic and Policy Situation - The US GDP showed certain growth in 2025, consumer confidence improved in January 2026, the labor market cooled down, and inflation remained above the Fed's target. The Fed's independence has been challenged, and the market has different expectations for its policy [37][39][40]. 8. Redefinition of Gold - Gold has both "safe - haven" and "risk - asset" attributes. It can resist inflation and is an important part of global asset allocation [43]. III. Fundamental Logic 1. Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached a high level, though the pace slowed down. Some central banks increased their holdings, while others sold gold. De - dollarization is expected to continue in 2026, and central bank gold purchases will remain a fundamental demand for gold [49]. 2. Gold Investment Demand - In 2025, global gold total demand reached a record high, mainly driven by investment demand. Gold ETFs and physical gold investment demand increased, while gold jewelry demand declined in quantity but increased in value. Gold supply also increased [52]. 3. Silver Supply - The silver supply side has strong constraints, with limited growth in mineral and recycled silver. In 2025 and 2026, the total supply is expected to increase slightly [55]. 4. Silver Demand - Industrial demand accounts for nearly 60% of total silver demand. In 2025, total silver demand is expected to decline slightly, and industrial demand has different trends in different fields. AI is expected to be an important source of future demand growth [58]. 5. Silver Supply - Demand Gap - The silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to continue in 2026. The available inventory is extremely limited, and the price elasticity is high [62]. 6. Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. It is affected by economic cycles, inflation, and other factors. Currently, the ratio has dropped to a relatively low level, and there is room for further adjustment [63][64]. 7. Asset Management and ETF Holdings - For gold, the non - commercial net long position in the COMEX market has decreased, while the holdings of the largest gold ETF have increased. For silver, both the non - commercial net long position in the COMEX market and the holdings of the largest silver ETF have decreased [68][71]. 8. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart of London gold shows an upward trend, and the weekly chart of London silver shows a correction within the upward channel [76][77]. IV. Summary and Outlook - In February, the price ranges of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver are predicted. After the adjustment, there may be medium - to - long - term investment opportunities, and it is recommended to buy on dips [80].

2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.23%报 111.920 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.310 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 105.890 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.394 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 30 日以固定利率、数 ...