彼时，美元作为全球储备货币的垄断地位持续数十年，靠的是美国强势的金融系统与印钞机背书。长期 依赖意味着长期脆弱：一旦政治关系紧张，资产被"非市场化"处置的可能就变为现实。自去年开始，许 多国家央行加快了买黄金的节奏，因为黄金不同于美元国债，不能轻易凭一纸令下被没收，它是全球公 认的硬通货，是对抗金融武器化的天然盾牌。 在这种气氛中，一条看似技术性的消息具有象征意义。九月，外媒报道称中国央行正通过上海黄金交易 所与友好国家商谈，邀请它们将黄金储备存放在中国的保税仓库，而且据说已经有东南亚国家表现出了 兴趣。托管地点的转移，不只是物流安排，它背后指向"信任"的迁徙。把黄金放谁那，就等于把命脉塞 谁兜里——托管方的选择，其实是地缘政治与金融安全的投票。 定价权与钥匙的去与留 过去西方掌握了全球的黄金定价与托管体系：伦敦金库与纽约联储是黄金储备的集中地，伦敦的"良好 交割"标准与欧美的跨境清算网络相互嵌套，构成了一个难以撼动的惯性结构。许多国家甚至习惯了把 黄金留在海外，既便于交易，又兼顾声誉。可一旦托管与政治绑定，托管变成"寄存"，金虽在账上，钥 匙却不在手里。 相比之下，中国提出"你们可以放我这"，发行的是另一张 ...

Group 1: Diplomatic Engagement and Financial Implications - A bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation visited China for the first time since 2019, emphasizing the need for high-level dialogue between the U.S. and China [1] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang reiterated the importance of mutual respect in cooperation, while the U.S. seeks to stabilize market confidence by urging China to halt or slow down the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds [1][9] - The backdrop of these discussions includes significant concerns over U.S. Treasury market stability and the implications of China's actions on global financial markets [1][9] Group 2: Trends in U.S. Treasury Holdings - In July 2025, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, bringing its total to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009 [2] - This reduction is part of a broader trend, with China having decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, totaling a net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Drivers - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings by China is driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal policy, including high national debt and interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually [3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, leading to fears about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the credibility of the dollar [3][8] Group 4: Comparative Analysis with Other Nations - Japan and the UK have increased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with Japan holding $1.147 trillion and the UK $858.1 billion, contrasting with China's reduction [4] - Japan's increase is attributed to trade surpluses and low domestic interest rates, while the UK's increase reflects its role as a global financial hub and the need for liquidity amid economic uncertainty [4] Group 5: Credit Ratings and Market Reactions - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and increasing deficits [5] - The downgrade may trigger passive adjustments by various institutions, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [5] Group 6: Shift Towards Alternative Assets - Central banks are increasingly looking for reserve assets that do not rely on U.S. credit, leading to a rise in gold holdings, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by August 2025 [6] - The global trend shows a significant increase in gold purchases by central banks, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [6] Group 7: Currency and Settlement Changes - The cross-border settlement of digital yuan surpassed 500 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [7] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.7%, while the use of the yuan in cross-border payments has risen significantly [7] Group 8: U.S. Monetary Policy Responses - The Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion in 2020 to $9 trillion in 2025 through quantitative easing to stabilize the Treasury market [8] - The ongoing fiscal debates in the U.S. Congress could lead to a government shutdown, further impacting the credibility of U.S. debt [8] Group 9: Future Observations and Implications - The visit of the U.S. delegation to China highlights the urgency of addressing financial risks and the need for cooperation on key issues [9] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China could signify a shift in diplomatic and financial strategies between the two nations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, particularly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has led to increased interest in gold-linked bank wealth management products, which are offering attractive annualized returns compared to other fixed-income products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since September, gold prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold futures reaching over $3,800 per ounce [1]. - As of September 26, the highest price recorded was $3,783.5 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase [4]. - The current gold price increase is supported by macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased gold reserves by emerging market central banks [4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management Products - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are actively promoting gold-related financial products, with many offering annualized returns exceeding 5% in the past month [1][2]. - Specific products, such as a structured deposit linked to gold prices, have been highlighted, with a typical allocation of 8% to 10% in gold [2]. - Notable products include a shark fin structure from China Merchants Bank with a 6.27% annualized return and another from Xingyin Wealth Management with a 7.49% return in the last month [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Experts suggest that while gold products remain valuable, investors should be cautious due to the current high price levels and potential volatility [5]. - The design of some products includes risk control mechanisms, as evidenced by early terminations due to reaching profit-taking conditions [3]. - Investors are advised to incorporate gold into their portfolios strategically and to stay informed about market dynamics and economic indicators [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, particularly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has led to increased interest in gold-linked bank wealth management products, which are offering attractive annualized returns compared to other fixed-income products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since September, gold prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold futures reaching over $3,800 per ounce [1]. - As of September 26, the highest price recorded was $3,783.5 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase [4]. - The current macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has provided strong support for gold prices [4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management Products - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are increasingly launching gold-related products, with many offering annualized returns exceeding 5% in the past month [2][3]. - For instance, a specific product from 招银理财 achieved an annualized return of 6.27% in the last month, while another from 兴银理财 reached 7.49% [2]. - The design of these products includes mechanisms for risk control, as evidenced by several products terminating early due to reaching profit-taking conditions [3]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Experts suggest that while gold products remain valuable for investors, caution is advised due to the current high price levels and potential volatility [5]. - Investors are encouraged to integrate gold into their portfolios strategically, considering their investment goals and market dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rising gold prices have led to an increased interest in gold-linked bank wealth management products, which are offering attractive annualized returns compared to other fixed-income products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since September, gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching over $3,800 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][4]. - As of September 26, the highest price recorded for COMEX gold was $3,783.5 per ounce, reflecting a 0.33% increase [4]. Group 2: Bank Wealth Management Products - Banks and wealth management subsidiaries are actively promoting gold-related financial products, with some products achieving annualized returns exceeding 5% in the past month [1][2]. - For instance, a specific product from 招银理财 achieved an annualized return of 6.27% in the last month, while another from 兴银理财 reached 7.49% [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Experts suggest that gold products still hold significant investment value, but caution is advised due to the current high price levels [5]. - The recent trend of early termination of gold wealth management products due to hitting profit-taking conditions indicates a robust risk control mechanism and reflects cautious market sentiment [3][4].

贵金属期货 周报—2025-9-26 1、黄金AU 观点： 在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医疗器械、工业机械等发起232条款调查。2、特朗普取消与民主党有关临时拨款法案的会晤计划，称会晤不可能有成果。 3、美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，前值为3.3%；9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低， 前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。4、欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧洲央行已经达到了通胀目标，但不确定性依然存在；管委Scicluna：当前利 率水平适宜，央行有能力应对下行风险；管委斯图纳拉斯：无需进一步宽松。 2、白银AG 观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, the gold market has seen a significant increase, with London gold spot prices rising over 10% [2] - Short-term gold prices are not expected to peak, with projections of reaching $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [2][13] - The main drivers for the current gold price increase include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets, and a return of speculative funds [2][6][11] Short-term Gold Price Outlook - The rapid rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the worsening U.S. employment situation, which has heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7] - The current federal benchmark interest rate remains above the neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts are likely to stimulate the economy [7] - Fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as global economies face increased concerns over long-term debt supply and inflation resilience [11][13] Long-term Gold Price Position - Long-term gold prices may potentially exceed $10,000 per ounce, influenced by changes in the global monetary system and central bank gold purchases [3][20] - Two scenarios are proposed for long-term gold price projections: one where emerging market central banks increase gold holdings significantly, and another where a continued decline of the dollar leads to a substantial rise in gold demand [20][31] - Historical trends show that gold prices have risen significantly during periods of monetary system changes, with past increases exceeding 1800% during the 1970s [14][17] Shanghai Gold Price Lag - Recent domestic gold price increases have lagged behind those in Europe and the U.S., primarily due to the concentration of price rises during European and U.S. trading hours [4][34] - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also pressured Shanghai gold prices, as it reduces the price differential with overseas gold [37] - A rising risk appetite in domestic markets has led to a shift of funds from gold to equities and commodities, further suppressing Shanghai gold price increases [39]

金融世界里，没有永远的朋友，只有永远的利益。2025年9月，中国减持美债的动作再一次搅动全球市场。 一边是美国财政部数据在"刷新下限"，一边是全球央行和华尔街投行的神经跟着中国的每一步起伏。 美国这些年用美元当武器，谁敢不听话就金融制裁。冻俄罗斯资产、打委内瑞拉石油、搞伊朗美元禁令。 中国当然不会把所有鸡蛋放在美元篮子里。减持美债，是对美国科技制裁、关税壁垒的有力回应。 每次美方出手，中国总能用实际行动表达"不为美国财政乱局买单"的原则。 与此同时，中国央行的黄金储备也在不断刷新纪录。 2025年，连续十个月增持黄金，总量达到7402万盎司。黄金不仅是避险工具，更是货币体系的"底气"。 中国7月单月减持257亿美元美债，持仓降至7307亿美元，创下2009年以来新低。 累计四年，中国减持美债超2800亿美元。 与此同时，黄金储备与数字人民币结算一路高歌。市场的敏感神经被拨动，美国白宫、国会、金融圈气氛骤然紧张。 特朗普刚说完"政府可能要停摆"，美国国会跨党派代表团立刻飞抵北京。围绕1800亿美债的中美"金融对弈"，谁在控盘，谁在承压，谁又能在多极化浪潮下 稳住阵脚？ 表面看是一次美债减持，实则是一套组合拳。美 ...

China Digital Yuan CBDC cloud mining. Photo by BeInCrypto China has opened a digital yuan operations center in Shanghai, advancing its central bank digital currency strategy. The hub will manage cross-border payment networks, blockchain services, and digital asset platforms. This initiative reflects Beijing’s plan to internationalize the yuan and diversify global monetary systems. Moreover, it actively seeks to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade. Shanghai Hub Strengthens Digital Yua ...